{"id":114836,"date":"2026-06-11T17:07:13","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T17:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/114836\/"},"modified":"2026-06-11T17:07:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T17:07:13","slug":"el-nino-je-zpet-neobvykle-rychle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/114836\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o je zp\u011bt. Neobvykle rychle"},"content":{"rendered":"

El Ni\u00f1o je teplou f\u00e1z\u00ed klimatick\u00e9ho fenom\u00e9nu El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0\u2013 Ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace (ENSO). Jde o\u00a0soubor zm\u011bn v\u00a0atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulaci, tlaku vzduchu a\u00a0teplot\u011b povrchov\u00e9 vody v\u00a0tropick\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu, kter\u00fd v\u00fdznamn\u011b ovliv\u0148uje po\u010das\u00ed po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/p>\n

Podle nov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy NOAA<\/a> u\u017e tento propojen\u00fd syst\u00e9m oce\u00e1nu a\u00a0atmosf\u00e9ry vykazuje podm\u00ednky typick\u00e9 pro El Ni\u00f1o. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplotn\u00ed odchylka ve sledovan\u00e9 oblasti vzrostla na +0,7\u00a0\u00b0C, nad oce\u00e1nem za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed p\u0159evl\u00e1dat z\u00e1padn\u00ed v\u011btry, ve st\u0159edn\u00edm a\u00a0v\u00fdchodn\u00edm tropick\u00e9m Pacifiku kles\u00e1 tlak vzduchu a\u00a0nad z\u00e1padn\u00edm Pacifikem se posiluje oblast vysok\u00e9ho tlaku.<\/p>\n

Leto\u0161n\u00ed n\u00e1stup El Ni\u00f1a je p\u0159itom neobvykle rychl\u00fd. Je\u0161t\u011b na p\u0159elomu let 2025\u00a0a\u00a02026\u00a0panovala opa\u010dn\u00e1 f\u00e1ze La Ni\u00f1a, zat\u00edmco ani ne o\u00a0p\u016fl roku pozd\u011bji u\u017e nastupuje El Ni\u00f1o po kr\u00e1tk\u00e9m obdob\u00ed neutr\u00e1ln\u00edch podm\u00ednek. Jak v\u00fdrazn\u00fd je tento p\u0159echod, potvrzuj\u00ed i\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty oce\u00e1nu ve sledovan\u00e9 oblasti, kter\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159ekonaly dosavadn\u00ed rekordy.<\/p>\n

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Podle port\u00e1lu Severe Weather Europe<\/a> nav\u00edc satelitn\u00ed m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed NASA odhaluj\u00ed ve v\u00fdchodn\u00edm Pacifiku rozs\u00e1hlou kladnou odchylku v\u00fd\u0161ky mo\u0159sk\u00e9 hladiny. Ta sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o\u00a0velk\u00e9m mno\u017estv\u00ed tepl\u00e9 vody pod hladinou, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed objem ne\u017e voda chladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Podle odborn\u00edk\u016f jde o\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed sign\u00e1l sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed k\u00a0velmi siln\u00e9mu El Ni\u00f1u.<\/p>\n

Foto: Climate Central<\/p>\n

Povrchov\u00e9 teploty oce\u00e1nu jsou ve sledovan\u00e9 oblasti ENSO rekordn\u011b tepl\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Potvrzuje to i\u00a0nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3za NOAA. Podle n\u00ed existuje v\u00edce ne\u017e \u0161edes\u00e1tiprocentn\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee teplotn\u00ed odchylka v\u00a0oblasti p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed v\u00a0obdob\u00ed od listopadu do ledna hranici +2\u00a0\u00b0C. Od t\u00e9to hodnoty se El Ni\u00f1o ozna\u010duje za velmi siln\u00e9 nebo jako takzvan\u00e9 super El Ni\u00f1o. NOAA z\u00e1rove\u0148 upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee by se leto\u0161n\u00ed ud\u00e1lost mohla za\u0159adit mezi nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00a0historii m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed.<\/p>\n

N\u011bkter\u00e9 modely u\u017e nazna\u010duj\u00ed historick\u00fd rekord<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco se p\u0159edpov\u011bdi instituc\u00ed, jako je NOAA, obvykle dr\u017e\u00ed p\u0159i zemi, modelov\u00e9 v\u00fdstupy v\u00a0posledn\u00edch dnech za\u010daly nazna\u010dovat je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj. Vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee obdob\u00ed takzvan\u00e9 jarn\u00ed bari\u00e9ry p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti, kter\u00e9 sni\u017euje spolehlivost odhad\u016f budouc\u00ed s\u00edly El Ni\u00f1a, u\u017e skon\u010dilo, je t\u0159eba tyto progn\u00f3zy br\u00e1t v\u00e1\u017en\u011b.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad evropsk\u00fd model ECMWF<\/a> ve sv\u00e9 \u010dervnov\u00e9 aktualizaci nazna\u010duje ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f teplotn\u00ed odchylku kolem +3\u00a0\u00b0C na konci roku, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e n\u011bkter\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e p\u0159ekra\u010duj\u00ed dokonce hranici +4\u00a0\u00b0C. V\u00fdrazn\u00e9 odchylky p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 tak\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161ina ostatn\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f.<\/p>\n

Foto: ECMWF<\/p>\n

\u010cervnov\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f modelu ECMWF teplotn\u00ed odchylky ve sledovan\u00e9 oblasti ENSO<\/p>\n

Pokud by se tyto p\u0159edpov\u011bdi naplnily, ne\u0161lo by jen o\u00a0velmi siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o. Mohlo by se st\u00e1t v\u016fbec nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed epizodou v\u00a0historii pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed. Dosud nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ud\u00e1lost se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b odehr\u00e1la v\u00a0letech 1877\u00a0a\u017e 1878\u00a0a\u00a0jej\u00ed n\u00e1sledky byly katastrofick\u00e9.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee je dne\u0161n\u00ed sv\u011bt na podobn\u00e9 projevy l\u00e9pe p\u0159ipraven, bude d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 situaci nepodcenit. Super El Ni\u00f1o m\u016f\u017ee zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0tropick\u00fdch oblastech v\u00fdrazn\u011b zes\u00edlit extr\u00e9mn\u00ed projevy po\u010das\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b povodn\u00ed, sucha nebo vln veder. Sou\u010dasn\u011b se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u00fd r\u016fst glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty.<\/p>\n

\u201eMus\u00edme se ob\u00e1vat dopad\u016f. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd El Ni\u00f1o se p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 k\u00a0u\u017e tak zna\u010dn\u00e9mu glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee v\u00fdsledn\u00e9 teploty v\u00a0zasa\u017een\u00fdch regionech by mohly b\u00fdt nev\u00eddan\u00e9,\u201c \u0159ekl stanici BBC<\/a> profesor Adam Scaife z\u00a0britsk\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby Met Office.<\/p>\n

Podle \u010cTK meteorologov\u00e9 u\u017e d\u0159\u00edve letos varovali, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd n\u00e1stup siln\u00e9ho El Ni\u00f1a by mohl negativn\u011b zas\u00e1hnout zem\u011bd\u011blskou produkci i\u00a0dod\u00e1vky potravin v\u00a0dob\u011b, kdy se \u0159ada region\u016f pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s\u00a0vysok\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady na v\u00fdrobu a\u00a0nejistotou na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0\u2013 Ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace (ENSO)<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0\u2013 Ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace (ENSO) je nepravideln\u00fd periodick\u00fd jev ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed oblasti tropick\u00e9ho Pacifiku, p\u0159i kter\u00e9m doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke zm\u011bn\u011b povrchov\u00fdch teplot mo\u0159e a\u00a0naru\u0161en\u00ed Walkerovy cirkulace, b\u011bhem n\u00ed\u017e m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt k\u00a0oslaben\u00ed, nebo dokonce obr\u00e1cen\u00ed pas\u00e1t\u016f. To m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt v\u00fdznamn\u00fd vliv nejen na region\u00e1ln\u00ed, ale i\u00a0na celosv\u011btov\u00e9 klima. F\u00e1zi ENSO ur\u010dujeme podle teplotn\u00edch anom\u00e1li\u00ed (teplej\u0161\u00ed nebo chladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed) v\u00a0oblasti mezi 120\u00b0 a\u00a0180\u00b0 z\u00e1padn\u00ed d\u00e9lky. <\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o je tepl\u00e1 f\u00e1ze ENSO, kter\u00e1 nast\u00e1v\u00e1, kdy\u017e se povrchov\u00e9 vody v\u00a0Tich\u00e9m oce\u00e1nu u\u00a0rovn\u00edku v\u00fdznamn\u011b oh\u0159ej\u00ed. Nav\u00edc rovn\u00edkov\u00e9 v\u011btry tla\u010d\u00ed teplou vodu sm\u011brem na v\u00fdchod, tedy opa\u010dn\u00fdm sm\u011brem ne\u017e obvykle. Tento jev naru\u0161uje b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 vzory atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dopady na po\u010das\u00ed. B\u011bhem El Ni\u00f1a doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0siln\u00fdm sr\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1m v\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch oblastech (nap\u0159. Ji\u017en\u00ed Amerika) a\u00a0suchu v\u00a0jin\u00fdch (nap\u0159. Austr\u00e1lie a\u00a0jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie). Jev se objevuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b ka\u017ed\u00fdch 2\u20137\u00a0let.<\/p>\n

La Ni\u00f1a je studen\u00e1 f\u00e1ze ENSO, kter\u00e1 je opakem El Ni\u00f1a. Doch\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159i n\u00ed k\u00a0ochlazen\u00ed povrchov\u00fdch vod v\u00a0rovn\u00edkov\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu a\u00a0rovn\u00edkov\u00e9 v\u011btry tla\u010d\u00ed teplou vodu naopak siln\u011bji sm\u011brem na z\u00e1pad. Tento jev posiluje b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 vzory atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace, co\u017e tak\u00e9 vede ke glob\u00e1ln\u00edm dopad\u016fm na po\u010das\u00ed. La Ni\u00f1a zp\u016fsobuje sucho v\u00a0Ji\u017en\u00ed Americe, zat\u00edmco v\u00a0Austr\u00e1lii, jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch oblastech p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed intenzivn\u00ed de\u0161t\u011b a\u00a0z\u00e1plavy.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o je teplou f\u00e1z\u00ed klimatick\u00e9ho fenom\u00e9nu El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0\u2013 Ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace (ENSO). Jde o\u00a0soubor zm\u011bn v\u00a0atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulaci, tlaku…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":114837,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[11],"tags":[9267,10487,1507,255,7031,54,77,53,52,12722],"class_list":["post-114836","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-svet","tag-el-nino","tag-globalni-oteplovani","tag-klimaticke-zmeny","tag-pocasi","tag-sucho","tag-svet","tag-veda","tag-world","tag-world-news","tag-zaplavy"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116732575739676337","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114836","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114836"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114836\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/114837"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114836"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114836"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114836"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}