{"id":119181,"date":"2026-06-16T05:17:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T05:17:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/119181\/"},"modified":"2026-06-16T05:17:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T05:17:12","slug":"obavy-se-potvrdily-zacina-el-nino-muze-byt-extremni-a-hrozi-prival-katastrof","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/119181\/","title":{"rendered":"Obavy se potvrdily, za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 El Ni\u00f1o. M\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt extr\u00e9mn\u00ed a\u00a0hroz\u00ed p\u0159\u00edval katastrof"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kdy\u017e se \u0159ekne nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed environment\u00e1ln\u00ed katastrofa v\u00a0lidsk\u00e9 historii, asi m\u00e1lokomu se vybav\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 d\u011bn\u00ed let 1877\u00a0a\u00a01878.\u00a0P\u0159esto se ho tak n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed v\u011bdci nezdr\u00e1haj\u00ed ozna\u010dit<\/a>. A\u00a0pokud odhl\u00e9dneme od toho, \u017ee ne\u0161lo o\u00a0jednu ud\u00e1lost, ale sp\u00ed\u0161 o\u00a0s\u00e9rii katastrof s\u00a0v\u00edce \u010di m\u00e9n\u011b spole\u010dn\u00fdm jmenovatelem, m\u016f\u017eeme jim s\u00a0p\u0159iv\u0159en\u00fdm okem d\u00e1t za pravdu. <\/p>\n

Odhaduje se toti\u017e, \u017ee v\u00a0d\u016fsledku vln sucha, zes\u00edlen\u00fdch tehdej\u0161\u00edm extr\u00e9mn\u011b siln\u00fdm jevem El Ni\u00f1o, a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00fdch hladomor\u016f zem\u0159elo asi 50\u00a0milion\u016f lid\u00ed. Tento po\u010det odpov\u00eddal 3\u00a0a\u017e 4\u00a0% tehdej\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 populace, co\u017e by p\u0159i dne\u0161n\u00edm po\u010dtu obyvatel Zem\u011b p\u0159edstavovalo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 250\u00a0milion\u016f lid\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Lid\u00e9 samoz\u0159ejm\u011b neum\u00edrali jen kv\u016fli El Ni\u00f1u. Sucha v\u00a0posti\u017een\u00fdch tropick\u00fdch a\u00a0subtropick\u00fdch oblastech za\u010dala u\u017e n\u011bkolik let p\u0159edt\u00edm a\u00a0nap\u0159\u00edklad \u201eVelk\u00fd hladomor\u201c v\u00a0Indii, p\u0159i n\u011bm\u017e zem\u0159ely miliony lid\u00ed, je z\u00a0velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti p\u0159ipisov\u00e1n pochyben\u00edm britsk\u00e9 koloni\u00e1ln\u00ed spr\u00e1vy. I\u00a0kdyby nicm\u00e9n\u011b tehdej\u0161\u00ed tzv. super El Ni\u00f1o bylo na vin\u011b t\u0159eba jen z\u00a0p\u011btiny, po\u0159\u00e1d ho m\u016f\u017eeme bezpe\u010dn\u011b za\u0159adit mezi nejsmrteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zn\u00e1m\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed katastrofy.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed se na tyto ud\u00e1losti vzpom\u00edn\u00e1 z\u00a0prost\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu\u00a0\u2013 koncem roku 2026\u00a0na\u0161i planetu m\u016f\u017ee zas\u00e1hnout n\u011bco podobn\u011b siln\u00e9ho. <\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e se to stane, dopady na\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed u\u017e nebudou tak drastick\u00e9. Sv\u011bt se od roku 1877\u00a0zm\u011bnil a\u00a0lid\u00e9 u\u017e nejsou tak zraniteln\u00ed. Humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed krize a\u00a0ob\u0159\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161kody nicm\u00e9n\u011b realisticky hroz\u00ed. Z\u00a0hlediska klimatu p\u0159\u00edchod El Ni\u00f1a nav\u00edc znamen\u00e1 v\u00a0podstat\u011b jistotu, \u017ee s\u00e9rie extr\u00e9mn\u011b tepl\u00fdch let, kter\u00e1 za\u010dala v\u00a0roce 2023, bude bez pauzy pokra\u010dovat.<\/p>\n

Co jsou El Ni\u00f1o, La Ni\u00f1a a\u00a0ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace?Nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm projevem jevu El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> je oteplen\u00ed vody ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti tropick\u00e9ho Pacifiku o n\u011bkolik stup\u0148\u016f. La Ni\u00f1a je opa\u010dnou f\u00e1z\u00ed a stejnou oblast ochlazuje. Hlavn\u00ed hnac\u00ed silou obou f\u00e1z\u00ed jsou zm\u011bny ve v\u011btrech foukaj\u00edc\u00edch od v\u00fdchodu na z\u00e1pad, kter\u00fdm se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 pas\u00e1ty. Pokud jsou slab\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e norm\u00e1ln\u011b, jde o El Ni\u00f1o, pokud siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, nastane La Ni\u00f1a.Ozna\u010den\u00ed jev\u016f poch\u00e1z\u00ed ze \u0161pan\u011bl\u0161tiny. El Ni\u00f1o znamen\u00e1 chlape\u010dek a La Ni\u00f1a hol\u010di\u010dka. M\u00e1 poch\u00e1zet z Peru, kde si jev\u016f ryb\u00e1\u0159i v\u0161\u00edmali u\u017e p\u0159ed stovkami let. Podrobn\u011b mechanismus rozeb\u00edr\u00e1 n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek:<\/a>Jak bude siln\u00e9?<\/p>\n

Co p\u0159esn\u011b n\u00e1m ale tedy p\u0159edpov\u011bdi moment\u00e1ln\u011b \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed?<\/p>\n

Obecn\u011b lze situaci shrnout n\u00e1sledovn\u011b: Podle Americk\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu pro oce\u00e1n a\u00a0atmosf\u00e9ru (NOAA) ji\u017e jev ofici\u00e1ln\u011b za\u010dal. V\u0161echny predikce se po skon\u010den\u00ed tzv. jarn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed bari\u00e9ry<\/a> shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee bude v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch s\u00edlit. Drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina model\u016f p\u0159itom p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edchod velmi siln\u00e9ho El Ni\u00f1a s\u00a0p\u0159edpokl\u00e1danou odchylkou teploty vody v\u00a0tropick\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu (tzv. region 3.4<\/a>) nad 2\u00a0\u00b0C. Vylou\u010deno v\u0161ak nen\u00ed ani p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed hranice 3\u00a0\u00b0C a\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00e9 modely u\u017e dokonce ukazuj\u00ed hodnoty kolem 4\u00a0\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

\u201eSt\u0159edov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 se n\u00e1m posouv\u00e1 k\u00a0velmi siln\u00e9mu, tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc t\u011bsn\u011b \u201apodrekordn\u00edmu\u2018 El Ni\u0148u,\u201c shrnul hlavn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011br z\u00a0nep\u0159ehledn\u00e9 spleti model\u016f a\u00a0p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed od r\u016fzn\u00fdch instituc\u00ed a\u00a0s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi v\u00fdsledky klimatolog Ale\u0161 Farda z\u00a0\u00dastavu v\u00fdzkumu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bny AV \u010cR.<\/p>\n

Dodejme, \u017ee rekordn\u00ed hranice p\u0159itom nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b jasn\u011b dan\u00e1. Odhaduje se, \u017ee nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed anom\u00e1lie El Ni\u00f1a 1877-1878\u00a0byla n\u011bkde nad 3\u00a0\u00b0C. Kvalitn\u011b zmapovan\u00e1 super El Ni\u00f1a posledn\u00edho zhruba p\u016fl stolet\u00ed se pak pohybovala n\u011bkde mezi 2\u00a0a\u00a02,5\u00a0\u00b0C. <\/p>\n

Foto: Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

P\u0159ehled nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch tepl\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00ed ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace od roku 1950.\u00a0Po\u0159ad\u00ed let nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b pevn\u011b dan\u00e9, existuje v\u00edce metrik m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed s\u00edly a\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e1 doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0drobn\u011b jin\u00fdm v\u00fdsledk\u016fm. <\/p>\n

Jako nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed varianta se tedy moment\u00e1ln\u011b jev\u00ed p\u0159\u00edchod podobn\u011b siln\u00e9ho El Ni\u00f1a jako v\u00a0letech 2015\/2016, 1997\u00a0a\u00a01983.\u00a0Dodejme nicm\u00e9n\u011b,\u00a0\u017ee celkov\u00fd rozptyl p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed je zat\u00edm po\u0159\u00e1d velik\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Takto nap\u0159\u00edklad vypad\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f Evropsk\u00e9ho centra pro st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed (ECMWF):<\/p>\n

Foto: Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

V m\u00e9di\u00edch asi nejcitovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed jsou ans\u00e1mbly ECMWF. P\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed ale existuje mnohem v\u00edc a\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00e9 doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0velmi odli\u0161n\u00fdm v\u00fdsledk\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra p\u0159edstavuje jeden ans\u00e1mbl (tedy v\u00fdsledek modelu na z\u00e1klad\u011b m\u00edrn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00fdch vstupn\u00edch podm\u00ednek). Jak m\u016f\u017eete vid\u011bt, ani jedin\u00fd neukazuje hodnoty anom\u00e1lie pod 2\u00a0\u00b0C, co\u017e je pova\u017eov\u00e1no za hranici velmi siln\u00e9ho El Ni\u00f1a (pro kter\u00e9 se v\u017eila neofici\u00e1ln\u00ed \u201ep\u0159ezd\u00edvka\u201c super El Ni\u00f1o).<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f od Americk\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu pro oce\u00e1n a\u00a0atmosf\u00e9ru (NOAA) je ale podstatn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b \u201ehork\u00e1\u201c\u00a0\u2013 pravd\u011bpodobnost p\u0159esa\u017een\u00ed anom\u00e1lie 2\u00a0\u00b0C je \u201ejen\u201c 63\u00a0%.<\/p>\n

Foto: Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f NOAA zat\u00edm ned\u00e1v\u00e1 tak vysokou \u0161anci extr\u00e9mn\u00edmu pr\u016fb\u011bhu jevu.<\/p>\n

Rozd\u00edl m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt umocn\u011bn t\u00edm, \u017ee p\u0159edpov\u011bdi byly vyd\u00e1ny v\u00a0jin\u00e9m \u010dase a\u00a0pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed m\u00edrn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e9 metriky, ov\u0161em hlavn\u00ed d\u016fvod je jin\u00fd. Jsou toti\u017e st\u00e1le pom\u011brn\u011b nejist\u00e9 a\u00a0vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, za jak dlouho m\u00e1 jev vrcholit, se tomu ani nem\u016f\u017eeme divit.<\/p>\n

\u201eSezonn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi jsou jednodu\u0161e t\u011b\u017ekou a\u00a0po\u0159\u00e1d relativn\u011b novou discipl\u00ednou. Hodn\u011b z\u00a0t\u011bchto model\u016f se m\u016f\u017ee m\u00fdlit. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o a\u00a0pozorn\u011b sleduji ka\u017edou novou aktualizaci p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, ale k\u00a0napln\u011bn\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f na vrchn\u00edm okraji palety z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1m skeptick\u00fd,\u201c napsal<\/a> k\u00a0tomu Robert Rohde, americk\u00fd fyzik se specializac\u00ed na klimatick\u00e1 data, kter\u00fd stoj\u00ed v\u00a0\u010dele v\u011bdeck\u00e9ho t\u00fdmu Berkeley Earth.<\/p>\n

P\u0159edstavu o\u00a0konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch rozd\u00edlech mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010fmi si m\u016f\u017eete zlep\u0161it z\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edho p\u0159ehledu:<\/p>\n

Foto: Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

Rozd\u00edly mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010fmi jsou po\u0159\u00e1d markantn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e to tedy je\u0161t\u011b naposledy shrneme, tak jako nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed se moment\u00e1ln\u011b jev\u00ed asi n\u011bco mezi anom\u00e1li\u00ed dva a\u017e t\u0159i stupn\u011b, co\u017e by znamenalo jedno z\u00a0nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch El Ni\u00f1. Nejistota je ale po\u0159\u00e1d pom\u011brn\u011b velk\u00e1, ov\u0161em p\u0159edpov\u011bdi se s\u00a0p\u0159ib\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edm \u010dasem pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u011b zp\u0159es\u0148uj\u00ed a\u00a0alespo\u0148 prozat\u00edm p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed st\u00e1le siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jev.<\/p>\n

Dopady na klima jsou jasn\u00e9: bude d\u00e1l teplo<\/p>\n

P\u0159ejd\u011bme k\u00a0p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdm dopad\u016fm jevu. El Ni\u00f1o v\u00a0prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b uvol\u0148uje velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed tepla z\u00a0oce\u00e1nu do atmosf\u00e9ry, co\u017e zvy\u0161uje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brnou teplotu vzduchu za jeden rok o\u00a0n\u011bco mezi 0,1\u00a0\u00b0C a\u017e 0,2\u00a0\u00b0C, pop\u0159\u00edpad\u011b mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b o\u00a0n\u011bco m\u00e1lo v\u00edc (ot\u00e1zka je\u0161t\u011b nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b uzav\u0159en\u00e1, zejm\u00e9na kv\u016fli podivn\u011b<\/a> vysok\u00e9mu oteplen\u00ed v\u00a0roce 2023).<\/p>\n

N\u00edzk\u00e9 desetiny stupn\u011b Celsia sice m\u016f\u017eou zn\u00edt jako n\u011bco zanedbateln\u00e9ho, ale ve skute\u010dnosti je pot\u0159eba br\u00e1t v\u00a0potaz, \u017ee jde o\u00a0vliv na pr\u016fm\u011br z\u00a0cel\u00e9 planety\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0aby se ten mohl pohnout t\u0159eba jen o\u00a0jedinou desetinu stupn\u011b, mus\u00ed doj\u00edt k\u00a0velk\u00e9mu mno\u017estv\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Voda v\u00a0\u010d\u00e1sti Pacifiku, kde se El Ni\u00f1o rod\u00ed, je u\u017e te\u010f v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u011b tepl\u00e1:<\/p>\n

Jedna nebo dv\u011b desetiny z\u00e1rove\u0148 mohou b\u00fdt rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed pro um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed dan\u00e9ho roku v\u00a0historick\u00e9 \u0159ad\u011b.<\/p>\n

\u201eNa konec roku 2026\u00a0se p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 El Ni\u00f1o, co\u017e zvy\u0161uje \u0161anci, \u017ee n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed rok 2027\u00a0se stane nejteplej\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0historii,\u201c \u0159ekl k\u00a0tomu Leon Hermanson, v\u011bdec z\u00a0britsk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby (Met Office) a\u00a0hlavn\u00ed autor zpr\u00e1vy Sv\u011btov\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 organizace (WMO) p\u0159edkl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdhled na klima v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed dek\u00e1d\u011b.<\/p>\n

Jej\u00ed ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 aktualizace<\/a> s\u00a0ohledem na El Ni\u00f1o uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee \u0161ance na p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00ed rekordn\u00ed teploty roku 2024\u00a0v\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00e9m z\u00a0rok\u016f do 2030\u00a0je 86\u00a0%. Jin\u00fdmi slovy je kv\u016fli El Ni\u00f1u v\u00a0podstat\u011b jist\u00e9, \u017ee p\u0159irozen\u00e1 variabilita klimatu v\u00a0dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b (ur\u010dit\u011b letos a\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok) nebude nahr\u00e1vat tomu, aby do\u0161lo alespo\u0148 ke\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 pauze v\u00a0s\u00e9rii extr\u00e9mn\u011b tepl\u00fdch let<\/a>, kter\u00e1 za\u010dala v\u00a0roce 2023. <\/p>\n

Podobn\u011b teplo jako v\u00a0rekordn\u00edm roce je ostatn\u011b u\u017e te\u010f\u00a0\u2013 tedy je\u0161t\u011b bez vlivu El Ni\u00f1a. Zrovna v\u00a0posledn\u00edch dnech glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota vystoupala<\/a> dokonce na nov\u00fd rekord pro dan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed roku.<\/p>\n

Mimochodem, kdyby El Ni\u00f1o p\u0159idalo ke glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed teplot\u011b n\u011bco kolem 0,2\u00a0\u00b0C, byl by to sv\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem \u201ev\u00fdlet\u201c do budouc\u00edho b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho klimatu v\u00a0neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed f\u00e1zi ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace, kter\u00e9 v\u00a0d\u016fsledku pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed zp\u016fsoben\u00e9ho lidmi nastane za pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b cca za 10\u00a0let (obecn\u011b se v\u00ed, \u017ee od 70.\u00a0let se otepluje o\u00a00,2\u00a0\u00b0C za dek\u00e1du, nicm\u00e9n\u011b v\u00a0posledn\u00ed dob\u011b se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 spekulovat<\/a>, \u017ee do\u0161lo ke zrychlen\u00ed na n\u011bco kolem 0,3\u00a0\u00b0C).<\/p>\n

Stejn\u00e1 logika funguje i\u00a0zp\u011btn\u011b\u00a0\u2013 rok 2016,\u00a0ovlivn\u011bn\u00fd velmi siln\u00fdm El Ni\u00f1em, byl sice rekordn\u011b tepl\u00fd v\u00a0tehdej\u0161\u00ed dob\u011b, ale za 10\u00a0let ho stejn\u011b p\u0159ekonal i\u00a0rok 2025, p\u0159esto\u017ee b\u011bhem n\u011bj u\u017e doch\u00e1zelo k\u00a0p\u0159echodu do chladn\u00e9 f\u00e1ze ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace zvan\u00e9 La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n

Riziko katastrof se zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed<\/p>\n

Krom\u011b vlivu na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teplotu m\u00e1 El Ni\u00f1o samoz\u0159ejm\u011b je\u0161t\u011b celou \u0159adu doprovodn\u00fdch dopad\u016f na po\u010das\u00ed. Nej\u010dast\u011bji jde o\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed teplo a\u00a0zm\u011bnu v\u00a0re\u017eimu sr\u00e1\u017eek jedn\u00edm \u010di druh\u00fdm sm\u011brem v\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdch oblastech sv\u011bta. Mezi nejv\u00edc ovlivn\u011bn\u00e9 regiony pat\u0159\u00ed Indie, jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie, \u010d\u00e1sti Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky, Austr\u00e1lie, Afriky i\u00a0USA.<\/p>\n

Tyto dopady maj\u00ed n\u011bco jako \u201epravidla\u201c a\u00a0ur\u010dit\u011b se ned\u00e1 \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee by jejich v\u00fdskyt byl \u00fapln\u011b n\u00e1hodn\u00fd. Nap\u0159\u00edklad sucho a\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed riziko lesn\u00edch po\u017e\u00e1r\u016f jsou typick\u00e9 pro jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii, Indii, ji\u017en\u00ed Afriku, Austr\u00e1lii a\u00a0severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st Amazonie, zat\u00edmco povodn\u011b se typicky vyskytuj\u00ed ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky a\u00a0na jihu USA. Na druhou stranu tato pravidla neplat\u00ed univerz\u00e1ln\u011b a\u00a0poka\u017ed\u00e9 z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm n\u00e1hodn\u00e9m uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fatvar\u016f v\u00a0atmosf\u00e9\u0159e a\u00a0v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b sucha i\u00a0na po\u010das\u00ed v\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech a\u00a0lidsk\u00e9 reakci. Intenzita dopad\u016f proto nemus\u00ed v\u017edy p\u0159\u00edmo odpov\u00eddat velikosti anom\u00e1lie teploty vody v\u00a0Pacifiku, podle n\u00ed\u017e se ofici\u00e1ln\u011b m\u011b\u0159\u00ed s\u00edla El Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n

Z toho z\u00e1rove\u0148 vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed podoba i\u00a0z\u00e1va\u017enost dopad\u016f jevu se t\u011b\u017eko p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed, i\u00a0kdy\u017e u\u017e t\u0159eba tu\u0161\u00edme, jak siln\u00fd bude.<\/p>\n

Obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 to plat\u00ed o\u00a0Evrop\u011b, kde se o\u00a0povaze dopad\u016f po\u0159\u00e1d debatuje a\u00a0jejich p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f je v\u00a0podstat\u011b nemo\u017en\u00e1. \u201eSpeci\u00e1ln\u011b u\u00a0n\u00e1s v\u00a0Evrop\u011b \u010di severn\u00edm Atlantiku p\u016fjde sp\u00ed\u0161 o\u00a0to, jak bude (El Ni\u00f1o) reagovat s\u00a0m\u00edstn\u00edmi\u00a0syst\u00e9my, jako je severoatlantick\u00e1 oscilace, pol\u00e1rn\u00ed jet stream a\u00a0celkov\u00e1 velkoprostorov\u00e1 cirkulace. V\u0161echny jevy se mohou \u201asna\u017eit prosadit svoje po\u010das\u00ed\u2018 a\u00a0z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na tom, jak se to v\u0161echno poskl\u00e1d\u00e1,\u201c p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eil Farda komplexitu probl\u00e9mu.<\/p>\n

<\/a>N\u00e1pov\u011bda z\u00a0historie<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e ale z\u016fstaneme u\u00a0nejposti\u017een\u011bj\u0161\u00edch region\u016f, m\u016f\u017eeme si b\u00fdt v\u00a0podstat\u011b jisti, \u017ee v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u011b siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o p\u0159inese v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u011b v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 probl\u00e9my. Historie to ukazuje jasn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Rok 1877\/1878\u00a0m\u00e1 kv\u016fli velk\u00e9mu \u010dasov\u00e9mu odstupu pro sou\u010dasnost omezenou v\u00fdpov\u011bdn\u00ed hodnotu, ale pod\u00edvat se m\u016f\u017eeme je\u0161t\u011b na super El Ni\u00f1a 1982\/1983, 1997\/1998\u00a0a\u00a02015\/2016.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Rychl\u00fd v\u00fd\u010det hlavn\u00edch dopad\u016f t\u011bchto ud\u00e1lost\u00ed vypad\u00e1 asi takto:<\/p>\n

1982\/1983\u00a0\u2013 Povodn\u011b v\u00a0Peru a\u00a0Ekv\u00e1doru, sucho v\u00a0Austr\u00e1lii, ji\u017en\u00ed Africe a\u00a0\u010d\u00e1stech Asie, v\u016fbec prvn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpad glob\u00e1ln\u00edho masov\u00e9ho hynut\u00ed kor\u00e1l\u016f.<\/p>\n

1997\/1998\u00a0\u2013 Op\u011bt povodn\u011b v\u00a0Peru, Ekv\u00e1doru a\u00a0nov\u011b i\u00a0ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Africe, sucho znovu v\u00a0podobn\u00fdch oblastech Asie, ale tentokr\u00e1t t\u0159eba i\u00a0ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Americe, kor\u00e1l\u016f uhynulo je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edc ne\u017e posledn\u011b.<\/p>\n

2015\/2016\u00a0\u2013 Povodn\u011b tentokr\u00e1t dopadly na Paraguay, Argentinu, Uruguay, Braz\u00edlii a\u00a0\u010c\u00ednu, sucho zase na ji\u017en\u00ed Afriku a\u00a0op\u011bt jihov\u00fdchod Asie a\u00a0St\u0159edn\u00ed Ameriku, vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed kor\u00e1l\u016f znovu p\u0159epsalo p\u0159ede\u0161l\u00fd rekord<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Projevy tedy nikdy nebyly \u00fapln\u011b stejn\u00e9, ale poka\u017ed\u00e9 markantn\u00ed. Jak velk\u00e9 \u0161kody v\u0161ak posledn\u00ed t\u0159i super El Ni\u00f1a nap\u00e1chala?<\/p>\n

Nepochybn\u011b si vy\u017e\u00e1daly nejm\u00e9n\u011b tis\u00edce \u017eivot\u016f, proto\u017ee humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed krize postihla des\u00edtky milion\u016f lid\u00ed a\u00a0doch\u00e1zelo<\/a> nap\u0159\u00edklad i\u00a0k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed tropick\u00fdch nemoc\u00ed, k\u00a0tomu zab\u00edjely i\u00a0zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 povodn\u011b. P\u0159ekvapiv\u011b ale pro modern\u00ed super El Ni\u00f1a neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd zaveden\u00fd souhrnn\u00fd odhad po\u010dtu ob\u011bt\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad u\u00a0let 1997\u00a0a\u00a01998\u00a0se \u010dasto uv\u00e1d\u00ed po\u010det 21\u00a0tis\u00edc, ale t\u011b\u017eko \u0159\u00edct, jak tohle \u010d\u00edslo v\u016fbec vzniklo. N\u011bjak\u00e9 odhady po\u010dtu ob\u011bt\u00ed s\u00a0jasn\u011b popsanou metodologi\u00ed sice existuj\u00ed, ale ty se zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed v\u017edy jen na mal\u00fd fragment ztr\u00e1t (t\u0159eba pr\u00e1v\u011b \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nemoc\u00ed nebo emise z\u00a0po\u017e\u00e1r\u016f atd.), a\u00a0nikoliv na celkov\u00fd sou\u010det.<\/p>\n

O pozn\u00e1n\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed je to s\u00a0odhadem materi\u00e1ln\u00edch \u0161kod. U\u00a0p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch \u0161kod se v\u011bt\u0161inou uv\u00e1d\u00ed<\/a> des\u00edtky miliard dolar\u016f na infrastruktu\u0159e, co\u017e je m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 \u0161kody z\u00a0jednoho velk\u00e9ho zem\u011bt\u0159esen\u00ed (u\u00a0s\u00e9rie ot\u0159es\u016f v\u00a0Turecku v\u00a0roce 2023\u00a0se odhadovaly p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 \u0161kody na 100\u00a0miliard dolar\u016f). Celkov\u00e9 dopady na ekonomiku za dan\u00fd rok se ale odhaduj\u00ed u\u017e na stovky miliard a\u00a0makroekonomick\u00e9 studie odhaduj\u00edc\u00ed n\u011bkolikalet\u00fd dopad dokonce uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed<\/a> ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed jednotky bilion\u016f dolar\u016f (dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edklad zde<\/a>). <\/p>\n

To u\u017e je opravdu hodn\u011b pen\u011bz\u00a0\u2013 \u010d\u00e1stky odpov\u00eddaj\u00ed ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm jednotk\u00e1m procent sv\u011btov\u00e9ho HDP nebo nap\u0159\u00edklad n\u011bkolika ro\u010dn\u00edm obrann\u00fdm rozpo\u010dt\u016fm USA. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Kdy\u017e se \u0159ekne nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed environment\u00e1ln\u00ed katastrofa v\u00a0lidsk\u00e9 historii, asi m\u00e1lokomu se vybav\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 d\u011bn\u00ed let 1877\u00a0a\u00a01878.\u00a0P\u0159esto se ho…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119182,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[11],"tags":[9267,10487,7121,2994,2971,15975,7031,54,11784,53,52],"class_list":["post-119181","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-svet","tag-el-nino","tag-globalni-oteplovani","tag-ocean","tag-planeta-a-klima","tag-povodne","tag-prirodni-katastrofa","tag-sucho","tag-svet","tag-vedro","tag-world","tag-world-news"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116758095408446584","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119181","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119181"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119181\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119181"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119181"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119181"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}