{"id":120425,"date":"2026-06-17T06:06:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T06:06:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/120425\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T06:06:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T06:06:10","slug":"cnb-muze-po-roce-zvysit-sazby-inflaci-dal-zivi-sluzby-mzdy-i-geopolitika","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/120425\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010cNB m\u016f\u017ee po roce zv\u00fd\u0161it sazby. Inflaci d\u00e1l \u017eiv\u00ed slu\u017eby, mzdy i\u00a0geopolitika"},"content":{"rendered":"

Guvern\u00e9r Ale\u0161 Michl minul\u00fd t\u00fdden v\u00a0rozhovoru pro Bloomberg<\/a> p\u0159ipustil, \u017ee rada \u010cNB o\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb v\u00e1\u017en\u011b uva\u017euje. \u201e\u010cervnov\u00e1 \u00faprava sazeb je nyn\u00ed re\u00e1lnou mo\u017enost\u00ed,\u201c \u0159ekl.<\/p>\n

Podle ekonom\u016f zes\u00edlily proinfla\u010dn\u00ed faktory, kter\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka nem\u016f\u017ee ignorovat. Krom\u011b geopolitick\u00fdch rizik na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b upozor\u0148uj\u00ed zejm\u00e9na na rychl\u00fd r\u016fst mezd a\u00a0trval\u00e9 zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed slu\u017eeb a\u00a0bydlen\u00ed, ale i\u00a0silnou \u00fav\u011brovou aktivitu v\u00a0ekonomice.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee kv\u011btnov\u00e1 meziro\u010dn\u00ed inflace v\u00a0\u010cesku zpomalila na 2,1\u00a0procenta z\u00a0dubnov\u00fdch 2,5\u00a0procenta a\u00a0pohybuje se pobl\u00ed\u017e dvouprocentn\u00edho c\u00edle centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, analytici varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00fdm optimismem. <\/p>\n

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Zpomalen\u00ed inflace v\u00fdrazn\u011b podpo\u0159ilo hlavn\u011b zlevn\u011bn\u00ed potravin, zat\u00edmco zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed siln\u00e9. \u0158editel m\u011bnov\u00e9 sekce \u010cNB Petr Sklen\u00e1\u0159 nav\u00edc m\u00edn\u00ed, \u017ee pozitivn\u00ed efekt levn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch potravin bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b sl\u00e1bnout. <\/p>\n

Kv\u016fli zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 kombinaci v\u011bt\u0161ina analytik\u016f \u010dek\u00e1, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka ve \u010dtvrtek sazby zvedne. Podle hlavn\u00edho ekonoma \u010cSOB Jana Bure\u0161e do\u0161lo ke zm\u011bn\u011b n\u00e1lady v\u00a0bankovn\u00ed rad\u011b \u010cNB nejen v\u00a0d\u016fsledku natahov\u00e1n\u00ed uzav\u00edrky Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a\u00a0zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdhledu pro ceny energetick\u00fdch vstup\u016f pro nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed zimu. <\/p>\n

\u201eKl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm argumentem byla posledn\u00ed velmi siln\u00e1 dynamika mezd a\u00a0pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed siln\u00e1 inflace v\u00a0segmentu slu\u017eeb. Pr\u00e1v\u011b kombinace p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho siln\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho infla\u010dn\u00edho podhoub\u00ed s\u00a0uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzu vedla ke zm\u011bn\u011b n\u00e1lady v\u00a0bankovn\u00ed rad\u011b,\u201c popsal.<\/p>\n

Omezen\u00ed provozu v\u00a0Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu, kudy proud\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek ropy, vyhnaly cenu ropy Brent nad sto\u00a0dolar\u016f za barel. Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b ohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e1 dohoda mezi USA a\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem o\u00a0postupn\u00e9m obnoven\u00ed provozu v\u0161ak \u010d\u00e1st nap\u011bt\u00ed zm\u00edrnila a\u00a0ropa v\u00a0\u00fater\u00fd zlevnila u\u017e na 80\u00a0dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

To m\u016f\u017ee podle analytik\u016f p\u0159in\u00e9st \u00falevu i\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9 ekonomice. Hlavn\u00ed ekonom Banky Creditas Petr Dufek upozornil, \u017ee i\u00a0v\u00fdrobn\u00ed inflace u\u00a0n\u00e1s sice v\u00a0kv\u011btnu d\u00e1le rostla, ale situace se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 stabilizovat. \u201ePokud bude situace v\u00a0Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu skute\u010dn\u011b sm\u011b\u0159ovat ke zklidn\u011bn\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee se i\u00a0tato men\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed vlna postupn\u011b vytr\u00e1cet,\u201c v\u011b\u0159\u00ed Dufek.<\/p>\n

Ceny pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch v\u00fdrobc\u016f v\u00a0kv\u011btnu meziro\u010dn\u011b vzrostly o\u00a01,5\u00a0procenta, mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b v\u0161ak p\u0159ekvapily poklesem o\u00a00,1\u00a0procenta. Ve stavebnictv\u00ed nicm\u00e9n\u011b pr\u00e1ce zdra\u017eily meziro\u010dn\u011b o\u00a03,5\u00a0procenta. Ceny zem\u011bd\u011blc\u016f naopak prohloubily meziro\u010dn\u00ed pokles na 13,2\u00a0procenta, st\u00e1le tak p\u016fsob\u00ed jako d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd protiinfla\u010dn\u00ed faktor.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Podle analytik\u016f struktura inflace z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pro centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banku probl\u00e9mem. Zat\u00edmco ceny zbo\u017e\u00ed se stabilizuj\u00ed, slu\u017eby z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed drah\u00e9 a\u00a0vykazuj\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst kolem p\u011bti procent. Takov\u00fd typ inflace b\u00fdv\u00e1 odoln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a\u00a0h\u016f\u0159e se dost\u00e1v\u00e1 pod kontrolu.<\/p>\n

Ekonom Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky Martin G\u00fcrtler zm\u00ednil, \u017ee finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy u\u017e zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb \u010cNB prakticky zapo\u010d\u00edtaly. Koruna se dr\u017e\u00ed na siln\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00edch pod 24,20\u00a0K\u010d za euro, co\u017e je dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed se chystaj\u00ed v\u00a0l\u00e9t\u011b na dovolenou do ciziny. Pokud ale \u010cNB trh p\u0159ekvap\u00ed a\u00a0sazby nezv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed, \u010desk\u00e1 m\u011bna by mohla oslabit.<\/p>\n

Sazby ji\u017e zvedla ECB <\/p>\n

Debatu o\u00a0sazb\u00e1ch \u010cNB, je\u017e je nez\u00e1visl\u00fdm org\u00e1nem dohl\u00ed\u017eej\u00edc\u00edm na stabilitu cen, komplikuje politick\u00fd tlak. Premi\u00e9r Andrej Babi\u0161 (ANO) centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banku vyzval, aby \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, od nich\u017e se odv\u00edjej\u00ed t\u0159eba i\u00a0ceny hypot\u00e9k, sn\u00ed\u017eila. Argumentoval t\u00edm, \u017ee \u010desk\u00e9 sazby by se m\u011bly p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eit ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm sazb\u00e1m v\u00a0euroz\u00f3n\u011b. <\/p>\n

Analytici ale vzhledem ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 opatrnosti centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e opa\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj. Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka minul\u00fd t\u00fdden zv\u00fd\u0161ila z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu o\u00a0\u010dtvrt procentn\u00edho bodu na 2,25\u00a0procenta. Japonsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka v\u00a0\u00fater\u00fd zvedla sazby na jedno procento, tedy nejv\u00fd\u0161e od roku 1995.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd Fed podle analytik\u016f nejsp\u00ed\u0161 ponech\u00e1 sazby beze zm\u011bny, ale mo\u017enost dal\u0161\u00edho zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky \u00fapln\u011b nevylu\u010duj\u00ed. \u010cNB podle nich chce vyslat jasn\u00fd sign\u00e1l, \u017ee je p\u0159ipravena s\u00a0inflac\u00ed bojovat, z\u00e1rove\u0148 ale nechce ekonomiku zbyte\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ibrzdit ve chv\u00edli, kdy se vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed \u0161oky za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed zm\u00edr\u0148ovat.<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fm\u011brnou inflaci letos \u010cNB p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 kolem 2,2\u00a0procenta, v\u00a0\u00fanoru p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem v\u00e1lky v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu \u010dekala 1,6\u00a0procenta. <\/p>\n

Podle dubnov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy ministerstva financ\u00ed by pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 leto\u0161n\u00ed inflace m\u011bla dos\u00e1hnout 2,5\u00a0procenta, p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok by spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny m\u011bly meziro\u010dn\u011b stoupnout o\u00a02,8\u00a0procenta. <\/p>\n

C\u00edlem \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky je dvouprocentn\u00ed inflace. V\u011bt\u0161ina analytik\u016f o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee \u010cNB letos zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed sazby jednou nebo dvakr\u00e1t. T\u00edm by ochladila popt\u00e1vku v\u00a0ekonomice – p\u016fj\u010dky by zdra\u017eily, podniky m\u00e9n\u011b investovaly, lid\u00e9 m\u00e9n\u011b utr\u00e1cely a\u00a0firmy by pak m\u011bly men\u0161\u00ed prostor zdra\u017eovat. <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Guvern\u00e9r Ale\u0161 Michl minul\u00fd t\u00fdden v\u00a0rozhovoru pro Bloomberg p\u0159ipustil, \u017ee rada \u010cNB o\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb v\u00e1\u017en\u011b uva\u017euje. \u201e\u010cervnov\u00e1 \u00faprava…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":120426,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[7],"tags":[13106,266,2165,43,42,41,40,1984,686,13157],"class_list":["post-120425","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-cesko","tag-ales-michl","tag-andrej-babis","tag-ceska-narodni-banka-cnb","tag-ceska-republika","tag-cesko","tag-czech-republic","tag-czechia","tag-hypoteky","tag-inflace","tag-sazby"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116763950111980442","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120425","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120425"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120425\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/120426"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120425"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120425"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120425"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}