{"id":126655,"date":"2026-06-23T06:08:13","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T06:08:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/126655\/"},"modified":"2026-06-23T06:08:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T06:08:13","slug":"nic-neroste-do-nebe-lekce-kterou-tu-nechal-banker-zlatych-devadesatek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/126655\/","title":{"rendered":"Nic neroste do nebe\u00a0\u2013 lekce, kterou tu nechal bank\u00e9\u0159 zlat\u00fdch devades\u00e1tek"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ve sv\u00fdch memo\u00e1rech napsal, \u017ee fr\u00e1ze \u201eiracion\u00e1ln\u00ed nad\u0161en\u00ed\u201c ho napadla ve van\u011b. Dnes je z\u00a0n\u00ed pam\u00e1tn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd cit\u00e1t. Sice u\u017e skoro 30\u00a0let star\u00fd, ale stejn\u011b aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed, jako kdy\u017e ho Alan Greenspan vypustil z\u00a0pusy.<\/p>\n

Bylo to na Mikul\u00e1\u0161e 1996.\u00a0Po skoro deseti letech v\u00a0\u010dele americk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, s\u00a0autoritou na \u00farovni prezidenta, do jednoho z\u00a0projev\u016f p\u0159im\u00edchal n\u011bco, co se v\u00a0tehdej\u0161\u00edch bezprobl\u00e9mov\u00fdch \u010dasech nenosilo.\u00a0Pochybnosti.<\/p>\n

Letos se Greenspan do\u017eil sta let a\u00a0toto pond\u011bl\u00ed zem\u0159el doma ve Washingtonu. Jeho odkaz je hodn\u011b rozporupln\u00fd. Pr\u00e1vem se mu vy\u010d\u00edt\u00e1, \u017ee m\u011bl sice v\u00a0devades\u00e1tk\u00e1ch dobrou intuici, ale nezakro\u010dil. To stoj\u00ed za p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed, proto\u017ee co kdy\u017e stejn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me i\u00a0te\u010f?<\/p>\n

Kontext projevu na jednom z\u00a0p\u0159edv\u00e1no\u010dn\u00edch banket\u016f byl takov\u00fd, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty\u00a0\u2013\u00a0zalit\u00e9 optimismem konce studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a\u00a0po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00e9ho pokroku\u00a0\u2013\u00a0m\u011bly za sebou slu\u0161nou p\u011btiletou konjunkturu, doprov\u00e1zenou neb\u00fdval\u00fdmi v\u00fdnosy na burze. \u00daspory, vlo\u017een\u00e9 do akci\u00ed, se Ameri\u010dan\u016fm zhodnocovaly v\u00a0druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b 90.\u00a0let ka\u017ed\u00fd rok nejm\u00e9n\u011b o\u00a0p\u011btinu.<\/p>\n

\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9<\/a><\/p>\n

Greenspan to ve sv\u00e9 \u0159e\u010di ozna\u010dil za pochopiteln\u00fd d\u016fsledek stabiln\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kdy n\u00edzk\u00e1 inflace sni\u017euje n\u00e1roky na ziskovost firem a\u00a0eliminuje investi\u010dn\u00ed rizika. \u201eJak ale pozn\u00e1me, \u017ee hodnotu aktiv nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u011b zved\u00e1 iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed nad\u0161en\u00ed, po kter\u00e9m p\u0159ijde neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd a\u00a0dlouhodob\u00fd pokles jako v\u00a0Japonsku v\u00a0minul\u00e9 dek\u00e1d\u011b?\u201c zeptal se Greenspan publika a\u00a0zbytek vystoupen\u00ed v\u011bnoval v\u00fdkladu, jak jeho instituce, zodpov\u011bdn\u00e1 za stabilitu finan\u010dn\u00edho sv\u011bta, bude rizika hl\u00eddat.<\/p>\n

Cel\u00fd Wall Street v\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bsu<\/p>\n

Tehdej\u0161\u00ed Amerika byla v\u00a0jedn\u00e9 v\u011bci podobn\u00e1 t\u00e9 dne\u0161n\u00ed. Ekonomice a\u00a0investic\u00edm dominovaly technologie, v\u00a0t\u00e9 dob\u011b hlavn\u011b prvn\u00ed masov\u00fd rozmach internetu a\u00a0vidina nekone\u010dn\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed on-line podnik\u00e1n\u00ed. Technologick\u00e9 firmy vznikaly p\u0159es noc a\u00a0obratem nab\u00edraly vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch hodnot ne\u017e zaveden\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 zna\u010dky. <\/p>\n

Greenspan pat\u0159il k\u00a0principi\u00e1ln\u00edm zast\u00e1nc\u016fm voln\u00e9ho trhu a\u00a0lidsk\u00e9 vynal\u00e9zavosti. V\u011b\u0159il, \u017ee technologie maj\u00ed s\u00edlu p\u0159in\u00e9st permanentn\u00ed skok v\u00a0produktivit\u011b a\u00a0\u017ee Amerika pro\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 kvalitativn\u00ed posun, d\u00edky kter\u00e9mu je investi\u010dn\u00ed boom zaslou\u017een\u00fd. \u00dapln\u011b stejn\u011b, jako je to dnes s\u00a0pr\u016fkopn\u00edky um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence, kte\u0159\u00ed t\u00e1hnou jako lokomotiva dop\u0159edu cel\u00fd Wall Street a\u00a0v z\u00e1v\u011bsu za n\u00edm i\u00a0cel\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00ed sv\u011bt.<\/p>\n

Souvisej\u00edc\u00ed<\/a><\/p>\n

Greenspan nechal sv\u00e9 pochybnosti ve\u0159ejn\u011b vyzn\u00edt jako varov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 si mohl p\u0159ebrat ka\u017ed\u00fd po sv\u00e9m. S\u00e1m ale proti trendu nijak ne\u0161el. Dokud bublina nesplaskne, nikdo si nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt stoprocentn\u011b jist\u00fd, \u017ee v\u016fbec existuje. <\/p>\n

Prop\u00edchnout ji\u00a0\u2013\u00a0t\u0159eba tak, \u017ee by Fed zvedl \u00faroky a\u00a0sn\u00ed\u017eil dostupnost levn\u00fdch investi\u010dn\u00edch pen\u011bz\u00a0\u2013\u00a0by znamenalo velk\u00fd politick\u00fd z\u00e1sah a\u00a0do toho se nikomu necht\u011blo. S\u00a0od\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00edm, \u017ee bublinu dop\u0159edu nikdo neum\u00ed spolehliv\u011b rozpoznat a\u00a0\u017ee rol\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky je ukl\u00edzet n\u00e1sledky sp\u00ed\u0161 ne\u017e d\u011blat prevenci.<\/p>\n

Greenspan\u016fv vst\u0159\u00edcn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup si finan\u010dn\u00edci vylo\u017eili jako implicitn\u00ed z\u00e1ruku, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b tr\u017en\u00edch turbulenc\u00ed zakro\u010d\u00ed a\u00a0\u00faspory n\u011bjak zachr\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Mohlo by v\u00e1s zaujmout<\/a><\/p>\n

Ceny rostly a\u00a0bublina se nafukovala, a\u017e\u00a0v\u00a0roce 2000\u00a0praskla. Technologick\u00fd index Nasdaq<\/a> se r\u00e1zem z\u0159\u00edtil o\u00a070\u00a0procent a\u00a0s t\u00edm i\u00a0\u00faspory mnoha Ameri\u010dan\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed na internet vsadili v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 karty. I\u00a0kdy\u017e Fed pom\u00e1hal a\u00a0srazil sv\u00e9 \u00faroky na minimum. <\/p>\n

Levn\u00e9 pen\u00edze ekonomice pomohly, ale\u00a0\u2013\u00a0spolu s\u00a0deregulac\u00ed bankovn\u00edho sektoru\u00a0\u2013\u00a0nafoukly novou bublinu, tentokr\u00e1t v\u00a0nemovitostech, kter\u00e1 praskla p\u0159i p\u00e1du banky Lehman Brothers v\u00a0roce 2008.\u00a0To u\u017e byl Greenspan v\u00a0d\u016fchodu, ale jeho odkaz z\u016fstal. P\u0159i\u0161la dal\u0161\u00ed, je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1plast v\u00a0podob\u011b levn\u00fdch pen\u011bz. A\u00a0po n\u00ed to, v\u00a0\u010dem \u017eijeme dnes, kdy akciov\u00e9 trhy znovu l\u00e1mou jeden rekord za druh\u00fdm, mimo jin\u00e9 i\u00a0proto, \u017ee ka\u017edou v\u00e1rku z\u00e1chrann\u00fdch pen\u011bz je pot\u0159eba n\u011bkam investovat.<\/p>\n

Greenspan nau\u010dil sv\u011bt, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka nen\u00ed jen hl\u00edda\u010dem inflace, ale tak\u00e9 hasi\u010dem finan\u010dn\u00edch kriz\u00ed. A\u00a0jakmile si na to trhy zvykly, za\u010daly s\u00a0touto z\u00e1chrannou s\u00edt\u00ed po\u010d\u00edtat.<\/p>\n

Lid\u00e9 maj\u00ed poka\u017ed\u00e9 dobr\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh<\/p>\n

Matka v\u0161ech ot\u00e1zek zn\u00ed, zdali jsme zp\u00e1tky v\u00a0roce 1996\u00a0a\u00a0\u010dek\u00e1 se jen na nov\u00e9ho Greenspana, kter\u00fd pouk\u00e1\u017ee dostate\u010dn\u011b d\u016frazn\u011b na to, \u017ee iracionalita v\u00a0investic\u00edch je zp\u011bt. Firmy jako Nvidia, Facebook nebo Google vykazuj\u00ed\u00a0\u2013 na rozd\u00edl od z\u00e1plavy dot-com firem v\u00a090.\u00a0letech\u00a0\u2013 re\u00e1ln\u00e9 a\u00a0velmi vysok\u00e9 zisky. Ale t\u0159eba m\u00e1nie kolem SpaceX, kdy burzovn\u00ed hodnota firmy je skoro na ston\u00e1sobku jej\u00edch tr\u017eeb, u\u017e s\u00a0racionalitou moc spole\u010dn\u00e9ho nem\u00e1<\/a>, stejn\u011b jako s\u00e1zky fanou\u0161k\u016f Donalda Trumpa na jeho kryptom\u011bnu a\u00a0spousta dal\u0161\u00edch v\u011bc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsou dnes ve finan\u010dn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b k\u00a0vid\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Poka\u017ed\u00e9, kdy\u017e je bublina nafouknut\u00e1, maj\u00ed lid\u00e9 dobr\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh. V\u00a0roce 2000\u00a0to byl internet a\u00a0nov\u00e1 ekonomika. V\u00a0roce 2007\u00a0sofistikovan\u00e9 \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed bankovn\u00edch portfoli\u00ed a\u00a0hypote\u010dn\u00edch rizik. Dnes je to um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence a\u00a0nov\u00e1 produktivita.<\/p>\n

Poka\u017ed\u00e9 se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee tentokr\u00e1t je to jin\u00e9. Mo\u017en\u00e1 ano\u00a0\u2013 dop\u0159edu bublinu vid\u00ed spolehliv\u011b m\u00e1lokdo, v\u00a0tom m\u011bl Greenspan pravdu. Ale stejn\u011b tak m\u011bl pravdu i\u00a0v pochybnostech p\u0159ed 30\u00a0lety. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ve sv\u00fdch memo\u00e1rech napsal, \u017ee fr\u00e1ze \u201eiracion\u00e1ln\u00ed nad\u0161en\u00ed\u201c ho napadla ve van\u011b. Dnes je z\u00a0n\u00ed pam\u00e1tn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd cit\u00e1t.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":125881,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[10],"tags":[412,25143,685,12118,1413,17,21,69,16,18,19,22,113,6459,20],"class_list":["post-126655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-zpravy","tag-akcie","tag-bubliny","tag-centralni-banka","tag-fed-federalni-rezervni-system","tag-financni-trhy","tag-headlines","tag-hlavni-udalosti","tag-investice","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-udalosti-dne","tag-usa","tag-wall-street","tag-zpravy"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116797932126599172","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126655","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=126655"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126655\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/125881"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=126655"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=126655"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=126655"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}