{"id":128706,"date":"2026-06-24T22:23:53","date_gmt":"2026-06-24T22:23:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/128706\/"},"modified":"2026-06-24T22:23:53","modified_gmt":"2026-06-24T22:23:53","slug":"klesne-bitcoin-az-na-38-000-usd-dle-tohoto-grafu-ano","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/128706\/","title":{"rendered":"Klesne bitcoin a\u017e na 38 000 USD? Dle tohoto grafu ano"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin si letos pro\u0161el prakticky v\u0161\u00edm, \u010d\u00edm mohl. B\u011bhem n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f se jeho <a href=\"https:\/\/kryptomagazin.cz\/trzni-kapitalizace\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">tr\u017en\u00ed kapitalizace<\/a> propadla zhruba z 2,5 bilionu USD na necel\u00fdch 1,3 bilionu USD. To je obrovsk\u00e9 odmaz\u00e1n\u00ed tr\u017en\u00ed ceny, kter\u00e9 pochopiteln\u011b zm\u011bnilo i sentiment investor\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>Pr\u00e1v\u011b tento propad ale z bitcoinu ve skute\u010dnosti znovu d\u011bl\u00e1 kontrari\u00e1nskou investici. Kdy\u017e aktivum po velk\u00e9m poklesu v\u011bt\u0161ina trhu nechce, za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 b\u00fdt z pohledu kontrari\u00e1na mnohem zaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. <\/p>\n<p>Ne proto, \u017ee by muselo okam\u017eit\u011b r\u016fst, ale proto\u017ee negativn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed u\u017e jsou v\u00fdrazn\u011b nacen\u011bn\u00e1 \u2013 \u010dili prostor pro zhor\u0161en\u00ed ji\u017e nen\u00ed. A to je z na\u0161\u00ed strany vskutku vytou\u017een\u00fd stav. <\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1186\" height=\"1085\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-151.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276694\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>Trh se zkr\u00e1tka posunul z f\u00e1ze euforie do f\u00e1ze strachu a\u017e kapitulace. A pr\u00e1v\u011b podobn\u00e9 zm\u011bny sentimentu b\u00fdvaj\u00ed u bitcoinu v del\u0161\u00edm horizontu velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9. Kdy\u017e se o n\u011bm mluv\u00ed jako o jist\u00e9 budoucnosti, jak je to \u00fa\u017easn\u00e1 technologie, je lep\u0161\u00ed se mu bohu\u017eel vyhnout. <\/p>\n<p>Kdy\u017e jej naopak skoro nikdo nechce, je dobr\u00e9 j\u00edt proti davu a naopak se zaj\u00edmat, zda se ner\u00fdsuj\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u011b v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 vstupy do trhu. \u010clov\u011bk si to sice mus\u00ed jako\u017ee vysed\u011bt, ale j\u00e1 si toho u\u017e vysed\u011bl na trhu tolik. Kdy\u017e toti\u017e hled\u00e1te, v\u017edy se najde kvalitn\u00ed a levn\u00e9 aktivum k investici. Finan\u010dn\u00ed trh je jako \u0160v\u00e9dsk\u00fd st\u016fl. <\/p>\n<p>U\u017e v zim\u011b jsem \u0159\u00edkal, \u017ee kdy\u017e bitcoin na LinkedInu shilluj\u00ed napudrovan\u00e9 holky advok\u00e1tky, je to sp\u00ed\u0161e sign\u00e1l k \u00faprku z trhu. Podobn\u00e9 momenty toti\u017e ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee se bitcoin dostal z velk\u00e9 m\u00edry a\u017e k \u0161irok\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti a trh m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt proto kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b p\u0159eh\u0159\u00e1t\u00fd. <\/p>\n<p>Polopaticky \u0159e\u010deno, nechceme kupovat n\u011bco, co nab\u00edz\u00ed \u0161arlat\u00e1ni, kte\u0159\u00ed sami aktivu v\u016fbec nerozum\u00ed. P\u0159ece nebudeme blb\u00ed. <\/p>\n<p>Dnes jsme ale v \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e9 situaci. Euforie je pry\u010d a cena logicky v\u00fdrazn\u011b spadla. Zat\u00edmco sentiment je v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b b\u00edda. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto m\u016f\u017ee bitcoin postupn\u011b znovu za\u010d\u00edt d\u00e1vat smysl pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed dok\u00e1\u017eou p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let proti davu a neinvestuj\u00ed jen podle souseda od vedle, kter\u00fd zase investuje dle souseda odnaproti.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin na cest\u011b k 52 000 USD<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin definitivn\u011b uzav\u0159el dal\u0161\u00ed t\u00fdden a aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed situaci nejl\u00e9pe vystihuje absolutn\u00ed nez\u00e1jem. Trh p\u016fsob\u00ed vy\u010derpan\u011b, bez v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed aktivity a bez jasn\u00e9 ochoty kupc\u016f p\u0159evz\u00edt iniciativu.<\/p>\n<p>Pr\u00e1v\u011b takov\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed podle m\u011b nahr\u00e1v\u00e1 tomu, aby se bitcoin brzy posunul n\u00ed\u017ee. Cenov\u00fd c\u00edl kolem 52 000 USD tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le velmi aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed. N\u00edzk\u00e9 objemy a slab\u00e1 dynamika zat\u00edm nenazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee by se trh cht\u011bl p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u011b vr\u00e1tit nahoru.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udcc9Bitcoin tedy definitivn\u011b ukon\u010dil dal\u0161\u00ed t\u00fdden a aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed situace, kterou nejl\u00e9pe vystihuje absolutn\u00ed nez\u00e1jem, p\u0159eje snad brzk\u00e9mu poklesu na cenov\u00fd c\u00edl okolo 52 000 USD.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udc49Pokud se pr\u016flom dol\u016f nepovede do konce \u010dervna, ob\u00e1v\u00e1m se, \u017ee b\u011bhem okurkov\u00e9 sez\u00f3ny se u\u017e v\u016fbec nikam\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/PsF2bMJ8AB\" rel=\"nofollow\">pic.twitter.com\/PsF2bMJ8AB<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Jaroslav Jarol\u00edm (@JaroJarolim) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/JaroJarolim\/status\/2069026837095698683?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">June 22, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<p>D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 ale bude na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed. Pokud se pr\u016flom dol\u016f nepovede do konce \u010dervna, ob\u00e1v\u00e1m se, \u017ee b\u011bhem letn\u00ed okurkov\u00e9 sez\u00f3ny se trh u\u017e nikam v\u00fdrazn\u011b neposune.<\/p>\n<p>L\u00e9to \u010dasto p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed slab\u0161\u00ed aktivitu, ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed objemy a pomalej\u0161\u00ed price action. Pokud tedy bitcoin nevyu\u017eije sou\u010dasnou slabost brzy, m\u016f\u017ee se cel\u00fd proces prot\u00e1hnout. Pak si t\u0159eba i po\u010dk\u00e1me na pr\u016flom dol\u016f mnohem d\u00e9le, t\u0159eba a\u017e do z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed. A to se mi up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b nechce. <\/p>\n<p>Jednoduch\u00fd manu\u00e1l, kdy bitcoin nekupovat<\/p>\n<p>Jednoduch\u00fd manu\u00e1l, kdy bitcoin nekupovat, spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v pochopen\u00ed takzvan\u00e9ho n\u00e1vratu k norm\u00e1lu. Pokud se cena p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 vzd\u00e1l\u00ed od sv\u00e9ho dlouhodob\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011bru, riziko v\u00fdrazn\u011b roste a potenci\u00e1l budouc\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f se naopak sni\u017euje. \u010cili jde o poznatek, kter\u00fd je zalo\u017een\u00fd na statistice a v podstat\u011b nejde o nic slo\u017eit\u00e9ho. <\/p>\n<p>\u010c\u00edm d\u00e1l je cena od sledovan\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011bru, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed opatrnost d\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl. Trh toti\u017e v takov\u00e9 f\u00e1zi \u010dasto neoce\u0148uje realitu, ale jak\u00e9si dominantn\u00ed n\u00e1lady. A\u0165 jde o b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed nebo medv\u011bd\u00ed trh. <\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1342\" height=\"1244\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-153.png\" alt=\"Jednoduch\u00fd manu\u00e1l, kdy bitcoin nekupovat\" class=\"wp-image-276696\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>\t\tJednoduch\u00fd manu\u00e1l, kdy bitcoin nekupovat<\/p>\n<p>V podstat\u011b jde o velmi jednoduch\u00fd princip. Nakupovat po velk\u00fdch cenov\u00fdch expanz\u00edch b\u00fdv\u00e1 hloupost, proto\u017ee investor v takov\u00e9 chv\u00edli \u010dasto plat\u00ed za n\u011bco, co u\u017e je v trhu d\u00e1vno nacen\u011bn\u00e9. Pak se mus\u00edte spol\u00e9hat, \u017ee se najde v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hlup\u00e1k, kter\u00fd zaplat\u00ed mnohem v\u00edce ne\u017e vy. <\/p>\n<p>Jako tohle je taky ur\u010dit\u00e1 strategie, ale pro spekulanty \u2013 j\u00e1 investuji do konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch aktiv, proto\u017ee v nich vid\u00edm hodnotu. Ne\u0159e\u0161\u00edm proto jenom cenu jako takovou. <\/p>\n<p>Retailov\u00ed investo\u0159i se bohu\u017eel \u010dasto hon\u00ed za cenou, proto\u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b tu vid\u00ed snadno. Kdy\u017e graf prudce roste, p\u016fsob\u00ed to bezpe\u010dn\u011b a l\u00e1kav\u011b. Jen\u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b v t\u011bchto chv\u00edl\u00edch b\u00fdv\u00e1 riziko nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. <\/p>\n<p>D\u016fvod je jednoduch\u00fd. Mnoho retailov\u00fdch investor\u016f nerozum\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00edm princip\u016fm investov\u00e1n\u00ed a u\u017e v\u016fbec nerozum\u00ed samotn\u00fdm aktiv\u016fm, do kter\u00fdch vkl\u00e1daj\u00ed sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze. Reaguj\u00ed hlavn\u011b na emoce, soci\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b a strach, \u017ee jim ujede velk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin je nyn\u00ed tud\u00ed\u017e v \u00fapln\u011b opa\u010dn\u00e9 situaci ne\u017e p\u0159ed v\u00edce ne\u017e p\u016fl rokem. Tehdy byl sentiment hrozn\u011b nafouknut\u00fd a p\u0159itom cena nedok\u00e1zala stabiln\u011b stoupat. Dnes se naopak dost\u00e1v\u00e1me do prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kde je n\u00e1lada hodn\u011b \u0161patn\u00e1, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a trh za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 b\u00fdt z kontrari\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho pohledu mnohem zaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Snadn\u00fd n\u00e1vod, kdy bitcoin kupovat<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch cyklech vytv\u00e1\u0159el cenov\u00e1 dna v okol\u00ed 300 a\u017e 500t\u00fddenn\u00edch exponenci\u00e1ln\u00edch klouzav\u00fdch pr\u016fm\u011br\u016f. Poka\u017ed\u00e9 p\u0159itom p\u016fsobil tak, jako by si trh postupn\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159el ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed technick\u00e9 podla\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Exponenci\u00e1ln\u00ed klouzav\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry reaguj\u00ed na v\u00fdvoj ceny rychleji ne\u017e klasick\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry. D\u00edky tomu z nich lze dob\u0159e vy\u010d\u00edst, jak <a href=\"https:\/\/kryptomagazin.cz\/co-je-to-trh\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">trh <\/a>s bitcoinem postupn\u011b dozr\u00e1v\u00e1. Ka\u017ed\u00fd dal\u0161\u00ed cyklus je strukturou trochu jin\u00fd, ale z\u00e1kladn\u00ed logika se \u010dasto opakuje.<\/p>\n<p>Mimochodem, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm poselstv\u00edm tohoto grafu je, \u017ee bitcoin m\u016f\u017ee klesnout a\u017e do bl\u00edzkosti 38 000 USD, kdy\u017e se zachov\u00e1 vzorec chov\u00e1n\u00ed z p\u0159ede\u0161l\u00fdch cykl\u016f. Pohledem exponenci\u00e1ln\u00edch klouzav\u00fdch pr\u016fm\u011br\u016f je toti\u017e dno po\u0159\u00e1d n\u00ed\u017ee a n\u00ed\u017ee.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1156\" height=\"466\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-152.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276695\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>Tak\u00e9 v\u00edme, \u017ee bitcoin u\u017e nep\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed tak extr\u00e9mn\u00ed cenov\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy jako v \u00fapln\u011b prvn\u00edch cyklech. V\u00fdnosy jsou postupn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed a ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, co\u017e jednou muselo p\u0159ij\u00edt. S rostouc\u00ed velikost\u00ed trhu je toti\u017e st\u00e1le t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed dosahovat stejn\u00fdch zhodnocen\u00ed jako d\u0159\u00edve.<\/p>\n<p>Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto d\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl sledovat dlouhodob\u00e9 klouzav\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry jako orienta\u010dn\u00ed technick\u00e9 z\u00f3ny. Nejde o p\u0159esn\u00fd n\u00e1stroj, kter\u00fd by ur\u010dil dno na konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed cen\u011b. Pom\u00e1h\u00e1 ale l\u00e9pe pochopit, kde se trh m\u016f\u017ee za\u010d\u00edt stabilizovat.<\/p>\n<p>Pro m\u011b je to mimochodem dal\u0161\u00ed technick\u00fd argument, \u017ee cena bitcoinu m\u016f\u017ee dos\u00e1hnout m\u00e9ho targetu na 52 000 USD. Tato \u00farove\u0148 toti\u017e do sou\u010dasn\u00e9 struktury i historick\u00e9ho chov\u00e1n\u00ed trhu zapad\u00e1 velmi dob\u0159e.<\/p>\n<p>Z\u00e1v\u011brem: cenov\u00fd target kolem 52 000 USD zapad\u00e1 do struktury trhu<\/p>\n<p class=\"ub_call_to_action_headline_text\" style=\"font-size: 30px; text-align: center; \">Investujte do bitcoinov\u00fdch ETF na platform\u011b XTB<\/p>\n<p>\t\t<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bitcoin si letos pro\u0161el prakticky v\u0161\u00edm, \u010d\u00edm mohl. B\u011bhem n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f se jeho tr\u017en\u00ed kapitalizace propadla zhruba z&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":128707,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[183,3244,15927,67,68,30684,16268,778,15929],"class_list":["post-128706","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-aktuality","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-jaroslav-jarolim","tag-kryptomena","tag-kryptomeny","tag-technicka-analyza"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116807432290831754","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128706","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=128706"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128706\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/128707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=128706"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=128706"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=128706"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}