{"id":13072,"date":"2026-03-03T19:51:07","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T19:51:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/13072\/"},"modified":"2026-03-03T19:51:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T19:51:07","slug":"nejvetsi-nemecka-cestovka-krvaci-panika-investoru-dusi-akcie-aerolinek-a-namorniku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/13072\/","title":{"rendered":"Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00e1 cestovka krv\u00e1c\u00ed, panika investor\u016f dus\u00ed akcie aerolinek a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edk\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"

Americko-izraelsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 intervence neshazuje\u00a0bomby<\/a>\u00a0\u201epouze\u201c na \u00cdr\u00e1n, ale tak\u00e9 na akciov\u00e9 trhy. K nejtvrd\u011bji zasa\u017een\u00fdm pat\u0159\u00ed spole\u010dnosti z cestovn\u00edho ruchu a dopravy. Akcie aerolinek, cestovn\u00edch kancel\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nebo provozovatel\u016f v\u00fdletn\u00edch lod\u00ed ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed v\u00fdznamnou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 hodnoty. Investo\u0159i se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed strachu turist\u016f z cestov\u00e1n\u00ed, odlo\u017een\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky, rostouc\u00edch cen ropy i paliva<\/a>,\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f na p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed let\u016f a v\u00fdsledn\u00e9ho tlaku na mar\u017ee.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Galerie: Konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b v nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch fotografi\u00edch.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Odborn\u00edci, kter\u00e9 e15 oslovila, upozor\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee zat\u00edmco u n\u011bkter\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed je pokles akci\u00ed logick\u00fdm vy\u00fast\u011bn\u00edm situace a jejich n\u00e1kup m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edstavovat investi\u010dn\u00ed past, v jin\u00fdch firm\u00e1ch naopak vid\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti, na jejich\u017e fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnot\u011b d\u011bn\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nem\u011bn\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201eExtr\u00e9mn\u011b z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na tom, jak dlouho bude konflikt trvat. J\u00e1 se osobn\u011b p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u00edm k variant\u011b jednoho a\u017e dvou t\u00fddn\u016f. P\u0159ekvapuje mne op\u011bt vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed propad u n\u011bmeck\u00e9 cestovn\u00ed kancel\u00e1\u0159e TUI, kter\u00e1 je takov\u00fdm klasick\u00fdm otlouk\u00e1nkem, kdy\u017e se tento typ konfliktu objev\u00ed. Tento titul nad\u00e1le dr\u017e\u00edm,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 portfolio mana\u017eer J&T Michal Semotan. Jedna z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch cestovn\u00edch kancel\u00e1\u0159\u00ed sv\u011bta za posledn\u00edch p\u011bt dn\u00ed odepsala p\u0159es 12 procent (v dob\u011b p\u0159\u00edpravy textu) a obchoduje se pod sedm eur za akcii. Nejn\u00ed\u017ee za mnoho m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n zadusil akcie cestovn\u00edho ruchu<\/p>\n

\u201eTUI je absolutn\u00edm pora\u017een\u00fdm. Propad\u00e1 se kv\u016fli obav\u00e1m o celkov\u00fd r\u016fst jej\u00edho byznysu p\u0159ed nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed letn\u00ed sezonou. Krom\u011b slu\u017eeb spojen\u00fdch se zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00edm z\u00e1jezd\u016f toti\u017e provozuje i vlastn\u00ed flotilu letadel. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ji tak postihuje nejv\u00edce,\u201c oponuje analytik XTB Tom\u00e1\u0161 Cverna.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco u TUI m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd n\u00e1vrat na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b pomalej\u0161\u00ed, jin\u00e9 tempo zhodnocen\u00ed investic m\u016f\u017ee nab\u00eddnout nap\u0159\u00edklad n\u00edzkon\u00e1kladov\u00e1 aerolinka EasyJet. Tu pozorn\u011b sleduje Semotan a za atraktivn\u00ed by ji pova\u017eoval v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b poklesu ceny pod 4,2 libry za akcii (v \u00fater\u00fd 12.00 SE\u010c byla cena 4,3). Sleduje tak\u00e9 leteckou spole\u010dnost IAG, kterou by hodnotil jako zaj\u00edmavou v rozp\u011bt\u00ed 3,7 a\u017e 3,8 libry za akcii (3,8 v dob\u011b p\u0159\u00edpravy textu).\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201eRiziko nyn\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1m v mo\u017en\u00e9m\u00a0n\u00e1r\u016fstu ceny ropy<\/a>,\u00a0pokud by konflikt p\u0159etrval del\u0161\u00ed dobu. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bych asi preferoval americk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti p\u0159ed evropsk\u00fdmi, kter\u00e9 jsou od tohoto konfliktu d\u00e1le. Nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00fdrobce letadel Boeing v kombinaci se zbrojn\u00edm pr\u016fmyslem,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Semotan.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Co bude s Hormuzem<\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 je ot\u00e1zka, zda bude Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv zablokovan\u00fd \u010di nikoliv, tedy zda tudy budou moci plout tankery s ropou na sv\u011btov\u00fd trh. \u017de bude \u00cdr\u00e1n pr\u016fliv do\u010dasn\u011b blokovat, pova\u017euje za nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 investi\u010dn\u00ed strat\u00e9g Michal Stupavsk\u00fd z Conseq Investment Management. \u201eTakov\u00e1 varianta by mohla znamenat cenu ropy na \u00farovni kolem sto dolar\u016f za barel, co\u017e by pro sv\u011btovou ekonomiku p\u0159edstavovalo v\u00fdrazn\u00fd negativn\u00ed stagfla\u010dn\u00ed rok,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Stupavsk\u00fd.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Nejen<\/a>Nejen bez Hormuzu se ekonomika neobejde. \u017deb\u0159\u00ed\u010dek ropn\u00fdch tepen planety, jejich\u017e v\u00fdpadek okam\u017eit\u011b zdra\u017e\u00ed sv\u011bt<\/a><\/p>\n

Oslabuj\u00ed tak\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti \u2013 klasick\u00e9 i n\u00edzkon\u00e1kladov\u00e9 \u2013 jako Lufthansa, Ryanair nebo Wizz Air, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 silnou vazbu na Izrael a region obecn\u011b. Investo\u0159i se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed mimo jin\u00e9 i r\u016fstu n\u00e1klad\u016f kv\u016fli prodlou\u017een\u00fdm tras\u00e1m. I do\u010dasn\u00e1 uzav\u0159en\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru znamenaj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebu paliva, v\u00edce hodin ve vzduchu i chaoti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, a tedy m\u00e9n\u011b efektivn\u00ed rotace pos\u00e1dek.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ryanair jako dobr\u00e1 investice?<\/p>\n

\u201eProti negativn\u00edmu pohybu jsou aerolinie \u010dasto zaji\u0161t\u011bny, p\u0159esto akcie reaguj\u00ed senzitivn\u011b kv\u016fli obav\u00e1m o budouc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj mar\u017e\u00ed. Mar\u017ee nejsou ovlivn\u011bny pouze n\u00e1kladovou, ale tak\u00e9 v\u00fdnosovou slo\u017ekou. V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se zace\u0148uj\u00ed i v\u00fdhledy na slab\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vku po cestov\u00e1n\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na do Dubaje a p\u0159ilehl\u00e9ho okol\u00ed,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Cverna.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Mezi pora\u017een\u00e9 \u0159ad\u00ed provozovatele v\u00fdletn\u00edch lod\u00ed jako Royal Caribbean, Carnival Cruise nebo Viking. P\u0159esto\u017ee nap\u0159\u00edklad s prvn\u00ed zm\u00edn\u011bnou d\u011bn\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b prim\u00e1rn\u011b nesouvis\u00ed, negativn\u00ed sentiment na trz\u00edch a obavy ze zdra\u017een\u00ed paliv doh\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed i tento zn\u00e1m\u00fd titul. \u201eAkcie z cestovn\u00edho ruchu jsou siln\u011b cyklick\u00e9 a v sou\u010dasn\u00e9m p\u0159ecen\u011bn\u00ed se odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed i v\u00fdhled na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflaci, tedy na potenci\u00e1ln\u011b slab\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebitelskou popt\u00e1vku,\u201c varuje Cverna.\u00a0<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost naopak vid\u00ed v irsk\u00e9m dopravci\u00a0Ryanairu<\/a>,\u00a0kter\u00fd by v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b dal\u0161\u00edch pokles\u016f p\u0159ikupoval do sv\u00e9ho portfolia i analytik Purple Trading Petr Lajsek. I proto, \u017ee mezi aerolinkami pat\u0159\u00ed k v\u016fbec nejefektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm. \u201eRyanair kles\u00e1 m\u00e9n\u011b a d\u00e1v\u00e1 to smysl. Jeho model kr\u00e1tk\u00fdch evropsk\u00fdch linek, vysok\u00e9 vyt\u00ed\u017een\u00ed letadel a schopnost rychle p\u0159esouvat kapacitu mu d\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed flexibilitu. Pokud by konflikt z\u016fstal region\u00e1ln\u011b omezen\u00fd a netrval m\u011bs\u00edce, o\u010dek\u00e1val bych, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b n\u00edzkon\u00e1kladov\u00ed dopravci se dok\u00e1\u017eou vzpamatovat relativn\u011b rychle,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Lajsek.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdprodeje na trz\u00edch jsou \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b opodstatn\u011bn\u00e9, ale v n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech u\u017e v cen\u00e1ch vid\u00edme i v\u00fdraznou d\u00e1vku paniky, dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Lajsek: \u201ePokud by \u0161lo o n\u011bkolikat\u00fddenn\u00ed epizodu, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m relativn\u011b rychl\u00e9 zotaven\u00ed akci\u00ed, podobn\u011b jako jsme to vid\u011bli po jin\u00fdch region\u00e1ln\u00edch eskalac\u00edch.\u201c O tom, jak\u00fdm sm\u011brem se vydaj\u00ed akcie zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, rozhodnou v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm obdob\u00ed faktory jako cena ropy, d\u00e9lka uzav\u0159en\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru i mno\u017estv\u00ed rezervac\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Americko-izraelsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 intervence neshazuje\u00a0bomby\u00a0\u201epouze\u201c na \u00cdr\u00e1n, ale tak\u00e9 na akciov\u00e9 trhy. K nejtvrd\u011bji zasa\u017een\u00fdm pat\u0159\u00ed spole\u010dnosti z cestovn\u00edho…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":13073,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[412,67,68,514,7489,808,7200,4130,7487,113,645,7488,7490],"class_list":{"0":"post-13072","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-akcie","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-byznys","11":"tag-doprava","12":"tag-easyjet","13":"tag-iran","14":"tag-ryanair","15":"tag-trhy","16":"tag-tui","17":"tag-usa","18":"tag-valka","19":"tag-wizzair","20":"tag-zajezdy"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116166989089238869","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13072","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13072"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13072\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13072"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13072"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13072"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}