{"id":142186,"date":"2026-07-08T16:40:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-08T16:40:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/142186\/"},"modified":"2026-07-08T16:40:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T16:40:15","slug":"mocny-opec-bojuje-o-preziti-problemy-muzou-prinest-barel-ropy-za-40-dolaru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/142186\/","title":{"rendered":"Mocn\u00fd OPEC bojuje o\u00a0p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed. Probl\u00e9my m\u016f\u017eou p\u0159in\u00e9st barel ropy za 40\u00a0dolar\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 znovu otev\u00edrat a\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00e9 \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty OPECu hlasit\u011b volaj\u00ed po zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy, aby dohnaly ztracen\u00fd \u010das a\u00a0tr\u017eby. A\u00a0to znovu rozn\u011bcuje dlouholet\u00e9 spory o\u00a0t\u011b\u017eebn\u00ed kv\u00f3ty, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e v\u00a0dubnu vedly Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, jednoho z\u00a0nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch \u010dlen\u016f OPECu, k\u00a0odchodu ze skupiny.<\/p>\n

OPEC tak stoj\u00ed p\u0159ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed volbou: udr\u017eet skupinu pohromad\u011b a\u00a0poslat ceny ropy ke dnu, nebo zv\u00fd\u0161it zisky a\u00a0riskovat rozpad t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 70\u00a0let star\u00e9ho kartelu? Jak situace dopadne, nen\u00ed z\u0159ejm\u00e9.<\/p>\n

O co vlastn\u011b jde?<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco zbytek sv\u011bta se letos na ja\u0159e sna\u017eil sehnat jakoukoli ropu, Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod j\u00ed m\u011bl na rozd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Byl tu ale probl\u00e9m: zem\u011b OPEC m\u011bly pot\u00ed\u017ee s\u00a0dod\u00e1vkami ropy z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016fm. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00e1 americk\u00e1 blok\u00e1da \u00fa\u017einy toti\u017e zablokovaly p\u011btinu sv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek ropy. N\u011bkolik \u010dlen\u016f OPEC\u00a0\u2013 konkr\u00e9tn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1n, Ir\u00e1k a\u00a0Kuvajt\u00a0\u2013 tak nem\u011blo jinou mo\u017enost ne\u017e zastavit t\u011b\u017ebu ropy a\u00a0\u010dekat.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e se provoz v\u00a0pr\u016flivu op\u011bt rozb\u00edh\u00e1, za\u010dalo soupe\u0159en\u00ed o\u00a0t\u011b\u017eebn\u00ed kv\u00f3ty. Ir\u00e1k, druh\u00fd nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed producent ropy v\u00a0r\u00e1mci tohoto bloku, je \u00fadajn\u011b dal\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0po\u0159ad\u00ed. Ir\u00e1ck\u00fd ministr pro ropu sd\u011blil agentu\u0159e Bloomberg, \u017ee Ir\u00e1k bude muset rozhodnout, zda v\u00a0OPECu z\u016fstane, pokud se t\u011b\u017eebn\u00ed c\u00edle v\u00fdrazn\u011b nezv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ir\u00e1ck\u00e1 t\u011b\u017eba toti\u017e byla v\u00e1lkou zasa\u017eena nejv\u00edce; v\u00a0dubnu a\u00a0kv\u011btnu klesla o\u00a075\u00a0% na n\u011bco m\u00e1lo p\u0159es 1\u00a0milion barel\u016f denn\u011b\u00a0\u2013 z\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e 4,5\u00a0milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b v\u00a0lednu a\u00a0\u00fanoru. Ir\u00e1k chce po skon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky povolen\u00ed k\u00a0t\u011b\u017eb\u011b rekordn\u00edch 5\u00a0milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e dlouhodob\u00fdm c\u00edlem je zv\u00fd\u0161it t\u011b\u017ebu na 7\u00a0milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b.<\/p>\n

\u201eJak\u00e1 je motivace? Pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed hotovost!\u201c \u0159ekl Jay Hatfield, gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel a\u00a0zakladatel spole\u010dnosti Infrastructure Capital Advisors zab\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed se spr\u00e1vou aktiv.<\/p>\n

Skupina OPEC+<\/p>\n

Organizace zem\u00ed vyv\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00edch ropu, s\u00a0anglickou zkratkou OPEC, vznikla v\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 1960\u00a0v\u00a0Bagd\u00e1du, s\u00eddlo m\u00e1 v\u0161ak ve V\u00eddni. Rakousko ale nen\u00ed jej\u00edm \u010dlenem. V\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti do OPEC pat\u0159\u00ed 13\u00a0zem\u00ed\u00a0\u2013 Al\u017e\u00edrsko, Angola, Rovn\u00edkov\u00e1 Guinea, Gabon, \u00cdr\u00e1n, Ir\u00e1k, Kuvajt, Libye, Nig\u00e9rie, Kongo, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty a\u00a0Venezuela. Tyto zem\u011b v\u00a0roce 2018\u00a0t\u011b\u017eily p\u0159es 40\u00a0procent ropy a\u00a0vlastnily p\u0159es 80\u00a0procent zn\u00e1m\u00fdch lo\u017eisek ropy.<\/p>\n

Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e1 skupina OPEC+ vznikla v\u00a0roce 2016\u00a0a\u00a0krom\u011b dosavadn\u00edch \u010dlen\u016f OPEC zahrnuje i\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b\u00a0\u2013 Rusko, \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, Bahrajn, Brunej, Kazachst\u00e1n, Malajsii, Mexiko, Om\u00e1n, Ji\u017en\u00ed S\u00fad\u00e1n a\u00a0S\u00fad\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Sa\u00fadsk\u00fd r\u00e9bus<\/p>\n

Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem bude Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, kter\u00e1 je zdaleka nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm \u010dlenem OPEC a\u00a0m\u00e1 nad touto organizac\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv. Na rozd\u00edl od Ir\u00e1ku a\u00a0Kuvajtu Saudov\u00e9 nepot\u0159ebuj\u00ed produkci p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 zvy\u0161ovat. Zem\u011b dok\u00e1zala sv\u016fj ropn\u00fd pr\u016fmysl z\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti udr\u017eet nad vodou t\u00edm, \u017ee obch\u00e1zela \u00fa\u017einu pomoc\u00ed ropovod\u016f, kter\u00e9 dopravovaly ropu do p\u0159\u00edstavu v\u00a0Yanbu na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b zem\u011b.<\/p>\n

To Saud\u016fm umo\u017enilo vyv\u00e1\u017eet ropu p\u0159es Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e\u00a0\u2013 co\u017e ale nen\u00ed mo\u017enost pro Ir\u00e1k a\u00a0Kuvajt, jejich\u017e jedin\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstavy le\u017e\u00ed v\u00a0Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Zat\u00edmco produkce Ir\u00e1ku a\u00a0Kuvajtu b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky prudce poklesla, produkce Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie klesla o\u00a0m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 40\u00a0%.<\/p>\n

Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie tedy nem\u00e1 stejnou motivaci za\u010d\u00edt \u010derpat ropu jako o\u00a0\u017eivot. Pr\u00e1v\u011b naopak, pokud by se produkce v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ila d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e se zotav\u00ed celosv\u011btov\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka, mohlo by to zni\u010dit zisky z\u00a0ropy v\u00a0dob\u011b, kdy se Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s\u00a0nedostatkem jin\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u201eV t\u00e9to situaci se zd\u00e1 kontraproduktivn\u00ed zaplavit trh a\u00a0tla\u010dit ceny dol\u016f,\u201c uvedl pro CNN Dan Pickering, zakladatel a\u00a0investi\u010dn\u00ed \u0159editel spole\u010dnosti Pickering Energy Partners.<\/p>\n

Proto OPEC jasn\u011b deklaroval, \u017ee bude p\u0159i zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed dod\u00e1vek postupovat \u201euv\u00e1\u017eliv\u011b\u201c a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 bude v\u00e9st dialog se sv\u00fdmi \u010dlensk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. Tento v\u00edkend se skupina OPEC+, do n\u00ed\u017e pat\u0159\u00ed Rusko a\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty mimo OPEC, dohodla na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed denn\u00ed produkce pouze o\u00a0188\u00a0000\u00a0barel\u016f, co\u017e je ji\u017e p\u00e1t\u00e9 takov\u00e9 postupn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed produkce od b\u0159ezna.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Rovnice cen<\/p>\n

Pokud by OPEC otev\u0159el kohoutky na maximum\u00a0\u2013 co\u017e je slo\u017eit\u00e1 operace bez z\u00e1ruky \u00fasp\u011bchu\u00a0\u2013, mo\u017en\u00e1 by pro ve\u0161kerou ropu nem\u011bla odbyt. Popt\u00e1vka b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky prudce poklesla, kdy\u017e ceny vyst\u0159elily nahoru a\u00a0palivo bylo nedostatkov\u00e9. Popt\u00e1vka se dosud nezotavila a\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e1 se u\u017e nikdy nevr\u00e1t\u00ed na \u00farove\u0148 p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b a\u00a0Evrop\u011b, kde na ja\u0159e propukla vlna elektrifikace.<\/p>\n

\u201eTrh \u010del\u00ed riziku do\u010dasn\u00e9ho p\u0159ebytku, proto\u017ee uv\u011bzn\u011bn\u00e1 ropa se kone\u010dn\u011b vrac\u00ed do syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd se ji\u017e m\u011bs\u00edce u\u010d\u00ed fungovat bez n\u00ed,\u201c poznamenala Natasha Kaneva, vedouc\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed komoditn\u00ed strategie v\u00a0JPMorgan.<\/p>\n

Teoreticky by se kupci m\u011bli naj\u00edt, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nouzov\u00e9 a\u00a0komer\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1soby ropy se propadly\u00a0\u2013 zejm\u00e9na ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech a\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b\u00a0\u2013, proto\u017ee sv\u011btov\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ropy od za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky v\u00a0b\u0159eznu klesly o\u00a0neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdch 1,4\u00a0miliardy barel\u016f. Tyto z\u00e1soby bude t\u0159eba doplnit. To se v\u0161ak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b stane sp\u00ed\u0161e v\u00a0roce 2027\u00a0ne\u017e v\u00a0roce 2026, proto\u017ee ob\u011b vl\u00e1dy sleduj\u00ed, jak\u00fdm sm\u011brem se budou ceny ropy ub\u00edrat, poznamenala podle CNN Kaneva.<\/p>\n

Pokud by produkce OPEC prudce vzrostla, konkurovala by podle spole\u010dnosti Kpler p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 90\u00a0milion\u016fm dal\u0161\u00edch barel\u016f ropy, kter\u00e9 za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed opou\u0161t\u011bt \u00fa\u017einu. A\u00a0pokud by o\u00a0ni nikdo nem\u011bl z\u00e1jem, ceny ropy by mohly prudce klesnout. P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok je ve h\u0159e cena ropy 60\u00a0dolar\u016f za barel, uvedl Kieran Tompkins, vedouc\u00ed ekonom pro klima a\u00a0komodity ve spole\u010dnosti Capital Economics. V\u00a0roce 2028\u00a0by cena ropy mohla klesnout na 50\u00a0dolar\u016f za barel.<\/p>\n

To by byla dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va pro spot\u0159ebitele, ale \u0161patn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va pro n\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch producent\u016f z\u00a0kartelu.<\/p>\n

Kdo bude v\u00edt\u011bz?<\/p>\n

OPEC se tak za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 pomalu rozpadat a\u00a0m\u00e1 proto obrovskou motivaci udr\u017eet skupinu pohromad\u011b. Spolupr\u00e1ce mu m\u016f\u017ee pomoci orientovat se na rychle se m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edm trhu v\u00a0\u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u0161t\u011bj\u0161\u00edm regionu sv\u011bta\u00a0 a\u00a0konkurovat Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm, kter\u00e9 se staly siln\u00fdm soupe\u0159em.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Kartel v\u0161ak ji\u017e v\u00a0minulosti dok\u00e1zal vypo\u0159\u00e1dat s\u00a0tlaky jednotliv\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f. \u201eIr\u00e1k ji\u017e n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t v\u00a0minulosti nast\u00ednil c\u00edle zv\u00fd\u0161it t\u011b\u017eebn\u00ed kapacitu, av\u0161ak bez v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho \u00fasp\u011bchu,\u201c p\u0159ipomenul Tompkins. \u201eP\u0159esto to v\u0161ak posiluje dojem, \u017ee soudr\u017enost a\u00a0omezen\u00ed v\u00a0r\u00e1mci OPECu se rozpadaj\u00ed.\u201c<\/p>\n

Mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu by tentokr\u00e1t mohlo situaci zm\u011bnit a\u00a0mohlo by to donutit Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii k\u00a0akci. Pokud k\u00a0tomu dojde, Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 maj\u00ed st\u00e1le mo\u017enost m\u00edt v\u0161echno: Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie by mohla souhlasit se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm produk\u010dn\u00edch limit\u016f na tak vysokou \u00farove\u0148 a\u00a0vyt\u011b\u017eit tolik ropy, \u017ee by to stla\u010dilo ceny ropy do rozmez\u00ed 40\u00a0dolar\u016f\u00a0\u2013 co\u017e je \u00farove\u0148, kterou by vydr\u017eeli sn\u00e1\u0161et jen bohat\u00ed Sa\u00fadov\u00e9.<\/p>\n

\u201eSa\u00fadsk\u00fd korunn\u00ed princ Mohammed bin Salman by mohl \u0159\u00edct: \u201aPokud na m\u011b budete p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 tla\u010dit, mo\u017en\u00e1 tak\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161\u00edme produkci,\u2018\u201c uvedl Vikas Dwivedi, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed strat\u00e9g pro ropu a\u00a0plyn ve spole\u010dnosti Macquarie Group. \u201e\u201aUvid\u00edme se v\u0161ichni na dn\u011b a\u00a0uvid\u00edme, jak se v\u0161ichni c\u00edt\u00ed.\u2018\u201c<\/p>\n

Dwivedi tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 nepova\u017euje za nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ale ani ho nevylu\u010duje. \u201eByla by to ho\u0159k\u00e1 ironie, kdybychom se z\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho \u0161oku na stran\u011b nab\u00eddky v\u00a0historii dostali k\u00a0historick\u00e9mu p\u0159ebytku nab\u00eddky,\u201c \u0159ekl.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 znovu otev\u00edrat a\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00e9 \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty OPECu hlasit\u011b volaj\u00ed po zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy, aby dohnaly…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":142187,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,8822,106,9650,205,6610,3199,113],"class_list":["post-142186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-cena-ropy","tag-evropa","tag-organizace-zemi-vyvazejicich-ropu-opec","tag-ropa","tag-saudska-arabie","tag-tezba","tag-usa"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116885351846525618","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142186","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=142186"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142186\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/142187"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=142186"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=142186"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=142186"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}