Na prvn\u00ed pohled to vypad\u00e1, jako by se voli\u010di domluvili. Sou\u010dty preferenc\u00ed v\u0161ech \u010dlen\u016f vl\u00e1dn\u00edho bloku jsou toti\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nachlup stejn\u00e9 jako obliba opozi\u010dn\u00edch stran. Prvn\u00ed blok by dnes volilo 45,2 procenta lid\u00ed, druh\u00fd 45,4 procenta, \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed data druh\u00e9ho \u010dervencov\u00e9ho pr\u016fzkumu pr\u016fzkum\u016f.<\/p>\n
Co je je\u0161t\u011b zaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, tento pom\u011br 45 : 45 trv\u00e1 prakticky od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku, kdy redakce Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b.cz leto\u0161n\u00ed pr\u016fzkum pr\u016fzkum\u016f spustila. Zakol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed jedn\u00e9 strany voli\u010di ihned vyva\u017euj\u00ed zm\u011bnou p\u0159\u00edzn\u011b na stran\u011b druh\u00e9. \u010ce\u0161i o\u010dividn\u011b necht\u011bj\u00ed dopustit, aby se misky vah p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017eily na jednu stranu.<\/p>\n
Kdy\u017e 45 procent znamen\u00e1 jasnou v\u011bt\u0161inu<\/p>\n
Jen\u017ee ve skute\u010dnosti se p\u0159esn\u011b pr\u00e1v\u011b tohle nyn\u00ed d\u011bje. Hnut\u00ed ANO od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku oslabilo o 1,4 procentn\u00edho bodu. P\u0159esto, pokud by se sn\u011bmovn\u00ed volby konaly nyn\u00ed, mohl by se Andrej Babi\u0161 t\u011b\u0161it a\u017e na 88 poslanc\u016f nam\u00edsto st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch 80. M\u016f\u017ee za to rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bnost opozi\u010dn\u00edch sil a pravidla tuzemsk\u00e9ho volebn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00e1 v\u00edce p\u0159ej\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bz\u016fm a siln\u00fdm stran\u00e1m obecn\u011b.<\/p>\n
Hnut\u00ed ANO by tedy s\u00a033 procenty hlas\u016f obsadilo 88 k\u0159esel, to znamen\u00e1 0,375 procenta hlas\u016f na jeden poslaneck\u00fd mand\u00e1t. K\u00a0sestaven\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy by mu d\u00edky tomu sta\u010dila koalice s\u00a0jednou stranou, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b s SPD.<\/p>\n
Projekt Tomia Okamury z\u00edskal v\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u00edm pr\u016fzkumu pr\u016fzkum\u016f d\u016fv\u011bru 7,1 procenta voli\u010d\u016f, co\u017e by mohl p\u0159etavit v\u00a018 mand\u00e1t\u016f. To je stejn\u00fd po\u010det k\u0159esel, jak\u00fd m\u00e1 dnes spolu se\u00a0Svobodn\u00fdmi, Trikolorou a stranou PRO. Na jedno k\u0159eslo by tak Okamura pot\u0159eboval 0,394 procenta hlas\u016f.<\/p>\n
Trest pro slab\u00e9 a rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9<\/p>\n
Je\u0161t\u011b slab\u0161\u00ed odm\u011bna \u010dek\u00e1 na subjekty, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ekonaj\u00ed p\u011btiprocentn\u00ed hranici jen t\u011bsn\u011b. To je p\u0159\u00edpad Motorist\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se v\u00a0pr\u016fzkumu pr\u016fzkum\u016f je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159es n\u011bkolika t\u00fddny pohybovali dokonce pod p\u011bti procenty. <\/p>\n
Nyn\u00ed jim model p\u0159isuzuje pouze sedm poslanc\u016f, na ka\u017ed\u00e9ho by tedy spot\u0159ebovali 0,717 procenta hlas\u016f. To je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dvojn\u00e1sobek oproti ANO. V\u00a0mal\u00fdch kraj\u00edch, kter\u00e9 ve volb\u00e1ch do poslaneck\u00e9 sn\u011bmovny p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed volebn\u00ed obvody, by tak na n\u011b zkr\u00e1tka \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd mand\u00e1t nezbyl.<\/p>\n
Probl\u00e9m opozice je nicm\u00e9n\u011b fat\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Pokud se opozi\u010dn\u00ed strany neza\u010dnou spojovat do koalic, jako to u\u010dinily p\u0159ed volbami v\u00a0roce 2021, hroz\u00ed hned t\u0159em z nich, \u017ee se do sn\u011bmovny v\u016fbec nedostanou. Ve v\u0161ech p\u0159\u00edpadech to jsou strany spjat\u00e9 s\u00a0ODS. Zat\u00edmco lidovci a TOP 09 a\u017e do lo\u0148ska tvo\u0159ili s\u00a0ob\u010dansk\u00fdmi demokraty koalici Spolu, hnut\u00ed Na\u0161e \u010cesko veden\u00e9 jiho\u010desk\u00fdm hejtmanem Martinem Kubou odtr\u017een\u00edm od ODS vzniklo.<\/p>\n
Tyto t\u0159i subjekty dohromady maj\u00ed podle pr\u016fzkumu pr\u016fzkum\u016f p\u0159\u00edze\u0148 v\u00edce ne\u017e dev\u00edti procent voli\u010d\u016f. Jejich hlas\u016fm ov\u0161em hroz\u00ed stejn\u00fd osud, jak\u00fd v\u00a0posledn\u00edch dvou sn\u011bmovn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch potkal hlasy pro soci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokraty a komunisty.<\/p>\n
Jak pr\u016fzkum pr\u016fzkum\u016f po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1<\/p>\n
Volebn\u00ed model Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b.cz pat\u0159\u00ed, stejn\u011b jako nap\u0159\u00edklad projekt Mand\u00e1ty.cz<\/a>, mezi takzvan\u00e9 poll of polls, tedy pr\u016fzkumy pr\u016fzkum\u016f. Jeho vstupem jsou v\u0161echny letos zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9 volebn\u00ed modely dom\u00e1c\u00edch agentur sdru\u017een\u00fdch v profesn\u00ed organizaci Simar<\/a>.<\/p>\n V\u00fdsledky t\u011bchto model\u016f jsou pak v\u00e1\u017eeny podle data zji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed a po\u010dtu respondent\u016f: \u010d\u00edm nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je dan\u00fd pr\u016fzkum a \u010d\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u00e1 po\u010det respondent\u016f, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1hu mu pr\u016fzkum pr\u016fzkum\u016f p\u0159isuzuje. <\/p>\n Vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fd volebn\u00ed zisk pak p\u0159epo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1 na poslaneck\u00e9 mand\u00e1ty s p\u0159edpokladem, \u017ee v jednotliv\u00fdch kraj\u00edch bude hlasovat stejn\u00fd po\u010det voli\u010d\u016f jako v roce 2025.<\/p>\n Do leto\u0161n\u00edho pr\u016fzkumu pr\u016fzkum\u016f Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b.cz byly dosud za\u0159azeny pr\u016fzkumy t\u011bchto agentur:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Na prvn\u00ed pohled to vypad\u00e1, jako by se voli\u010di domluvili. Sou\u010dty preferenc\u00ed v\u0161ech \u010dlen\u016f vl\u00e1dn\u00edho bloku jsou toti\u017e…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":147285,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[7],"tags":[43,42,41,40,2405,963,647,174,1341,1066,9314],"class_list":["post-147284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-cesko","tag-ceska-republika","tag-cesko","tag-czech-republic","tag-czechia","tag-datavize","tag-kdu-csl","tag-motoriste-sobe","tag-politika","tag-spd","tag-top-09","tag-volebni-model-aktualne"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116917355571158907","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/147284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=147284"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/147284\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/147285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=147284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=147284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=147284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}