{"id":153784,"date":"2026-07-21T08:26:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T08:26:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/153784\/"},"modified":"2026-07-21T08:26:13","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T08:26:13","slug":"zaplavit-svet-cina-podnikla-ekonomicky-utok-na-zbytek-planety","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/153784\/","title":{"rendered":"Zaplavit sv\u011bt. \u010c\u00edna podnikla ekonomick\u00fd \u00fatok na zbytek planety"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad minul\u00fd t\u00fdden ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee hrub\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkt ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u011b vzrostl o\u00a04,3\u00a0procenta. To je nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstek od doby, kdy \u010c\u00edna v\u00a090.\u00a0letech za\u010dala HDP ofici\u00e1ln\u011b vykazovat (s v\u00fdjimkou obdob\u00ed covidov\u00fdch restrikc\u00ed). \u010c\u00edslo zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 za centr\u00e1ln\u011b pl\u00e1novan\u00fdm c\u00edlem vl\u00e1dy, kter\u00fd byl na leto\u0161n\u00ed rok stanoven na 4,5\u00a0a\u017e 5\u00a0procent.<\/p>\n

Za slabou ekonomiku mohou dva dlouhodob\u00e9 probl\u00e9my: samotn\u00ed \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 jsou velmi spo\u0159iv\u00ed a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 klesaj\u00ed i\u00a0investice, kter\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed t\u00e1hly v\u00a0minul\u00fdch dek\u00e1d\u00e1ch. Maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby v\u00a0\u010dervnu vzrostly meziro\u010dn\u011b jen o\u00a0jedno procento a\u00a0investice do fixn\u00edch aktiv (nov\u00fdch tov\u00e1ren, kancel\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, silnic, stroj\u016f,\u2026) za prvn\u00ed pololet\u00ed klesly o\u00a05,7\u00a0procenta. K\u00a0tomu splask\u00e1v\u00e1 nemovitostn\u00ed boom, kdy se investice do nemovitost\u00ed za stejn\u00e9 obdob\u00ed propadly o\u00a018\u00a0procent.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm motorem r\u016fstu tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba, kter\u00e1 rostla slu\u0161n\u00fdm tempem 5,3\u00a0procenta a\u00a0export v\u00a0\u010dervnu vysko\u010dil meziro\u010dn\u011b o\u00a027\u00a0procent.<\/p>\n

Celn\u00ed v\u00e1lka \u010c\u00ednu pos\u00edlila<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna toti\u017e na slabou dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vku reaguje t\u00edm, \u017ee sv\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b agresivn\u011bji tla\u010d\u00ed do zahrani\u010d\u00ed\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0net\u00fdk\u00e1 se to zdaleka jen v\u00fdvozu aut, by\u0165 pr\u00e1v\u011b automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl je nejviditeln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm symbolem tohoto trendu. A\u00a0v\u00fdvoz se j\u00ed da\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u201eJe pro m\u011b nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 p\u0159iznat, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd exportn\u00ed sektor vy\u0161el z\u00a0lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho celn\u00edho sporu s\u00a0USA pos\u00edlen. V\u00fdvoz do USA se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 vr\u00e1til na \u00farove\u0148 z\u00a0konce roku 2024, tak\u017ee nic nenasv\u011bd\u010duje tomu, \u017ee by americk\u00e1 cla m\u011bla n\u011bjak\u00fd znateln\u00fd dopad. Nav\u00edc masivn\u011b vzrostl i\u00a0v\u00fdvoz do v\u0161ech ostatn\u00edch zem\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna sv\u00fdmi v\u00fdrobky doslova zaplavuje sv\u011bt,\u201c uvedl<\/a> Robin Brooks z\u00a0Brookings Institution, kter\u00fd d\u0159\u00edve p\u016fsobil v\u00a0Goldman Sachs.<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 p\u0159itom je, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd export neroste jen na bohat\u00e9 trhy Evropy, ale nejv\u00edc do rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch se ekonomik typu Thajska nebo Malajsie. Malajsie proto od za\u010d\u00e1tku \u010dervence zavedla p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9 dovozn\u00ed limity na elektromobily. Dov\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 automobily mus\u00ed m\u00edt celn\u00ed hodnotu alespo\u0148 200\u00a0tis\u00edc ringgit\u016f (zhruba 49\u00a0tis\u00edc dolar\u016f) a\u00a0v\u00fdkon motoru minim\u00e1ln\u011b 180\u00a0kilowatt\u016f. Opat\u0159en\u00ed fakticky vy\u0159azuje z\u00a0trhu levn\u00e9 modely \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch v\u00fdrobc\u016f jako BYD.<\/p>\n

Za n\u00e1r\u016fstem objemu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho exportu je p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm dal\u0161\u00ed agresivn\u00ed sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed cen. Kdy\u017e Trump loni zavedl americk\u00e1 cla (tzv. IEEPA tarify) a\u00a0\u010d\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed v\u00fdrobci p\u0159i\u0161li o\u00a0mo\u017enost prod\u00e1vat zbo\u017e\u00ed na americk\u00e9m trhu se ziskem, museli tito export\u00e9\u0159i hledat nov\u00e9 odbyti\u0161t\u011b jinde ve sv\u011bt\u011b. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b aby prodali objemy, kter\u00e9 d\u0159\u00edve m\u00ed\u0159ily do Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, museli ceny sn\u00ed\u017eit.<\/p>\n

Situace se ale oto\u010dila letos v\u00a0\u00fanoru, kdy americk\u00fd Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed soud rozhodl, \u017ee zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 cla zaveden\u00e1 na z\u00e1klad\u011b z\u00e1kona IEEPA byla nez\u00e1konn\u00e1. T\u00edm zmizel tlak, kter\u00fd nutil \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 firmy odkl\u00e1n\u011bt export mimo USA za podseknut\u00e9 ceny, a\u00a0mohly ceny znovu nav\u00fd\u0161it na p\u0159edchoz\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b. \u010c\u00edna tak podle Brookse znovu z\u00edskala cenotvornou moc a\u00a0v sou\u010dasnosti obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lku vyhr\u00e1v\u00e1 na obou front\u00e1ch z\u00e1rove\u0148, tj. v\u00a0objemu i\u00a0v cen\u011b vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n

N\u00edzk\u00e9 d\u016fchody<\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m \u010c\u00edny se v\u0161ak neomezuje na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lku s\u00a0Washingtonem. Podle ekonoma Liou \u0160‘-\u0165ina<\/a>, b\u00fdval\u00e9ho poradce \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 ekonomika trp\u00ed nerovnov\u00e1hou mezi vysokou nab\u00eddkou zbo\u017e\u00ed, kter\u00e9 vyr\u00e1b\u00ed, a\u00a0slabou popt\u00e1vkou vlastn\u00edho obyvatelstva, kter\u00e9 nen\u00ed ochotn\u00e9 si zbo\u017e\u00ed kupovat. Uzn\u00e1v\u00e1 to i\u00a0centr\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1da, kter\u00e1 se periodicky sna\u017e\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed spot\u0159ebu povzbudit.<\/p>\n

V\u0161echny vysp\u011bl\u00e9 ekonomiky toti\u017e rostou ve velk\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kv\u016fli spot\u0159eb\u011b obyvatelstva. Pod\u00edl spot\u0159eby na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m HDP je v\u0161ak dlouhodob\u011b zhruba o\u00a0dvacet procentn\u00edch bod\u016f ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e sv\u011btov\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br. Dokud rostly investice do nemovitost\u00ed a\u00a0infrastruktury, tento deficit byl skryt\u00fd. Po roce 2022, kdy realitn\u00ed trh prudce zpomalil, je ale slab\u00e1 spot\u0159eba probl\u00e9m.<\/p>\n

Za t\u00edm v\u0161\u00edm stoj\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 m\u00edra \u00faspor, proto\u017ee \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 pat\u0159\u00ed k\u00a0nejspo\u0159iv\u011bj\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1rod\u016fm sv\u011bta. M\u00edra tamn\u00edch \u00faspor v\u00a0posledn\u00edm desetilet\u00ed p\u0159esahovala 50\u00a0procent HDP a\u00a0dnes se pohybuje kolem 42\u00a0procent, zat\u00edmco celosv\u011btov\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br \u010din\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b jen \u010dtvrtinu HDP.<\/p>\n

D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je p\u0159itom to, kdo spo\u0159\u00ed. Podle Liou \u0160‘-\u0165ina jde p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o\u00a0firmy a\u00a0bohat\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti (v roce 2022\u00a0tvo\u0159ily firemn\u00ed \u00faspory 22,5\u00a0procenta HDP), co\u017e je mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b nezvykle vysok\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo dan\u00e9 mimo jin\u00e9 t\u00edm, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 firmy vypl\u00e1cej\u00ed na dividend\u00e1ch jen zlomek toho, co je b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 jinde ve sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Co se t\u00fd\u010de dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, tak podle dat China Merchants Bank dr\u017e\u00ed naprostou v\u011bt\u0161inu pen\u011bz v\u00a0bank\u00e1ch mal\u00e1 skupina nejbohat\u0161\u00edch klient\u016f. \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 tedy velk\u00fd probl\u00e9m v\u00a0distribuci bohatstv\u00ed, nikoli jen v\u00a0tom, \u017ee by prost\u011b byla chud\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd model \u010c\u00edny zalo\u017een\u00fd na st\u00e1tn\u00edch investic\u00edch a\u00a0zisc\u00edch z\u00a0exportu fungoval dob\u0159e v\u00a0dob\u011b, kdy \u010c\u00edna proch\u00e1zela obdob\u00edm nedostatku a\u00a0investice m\u011bly kam r\u016fst. Tento prostor se ale postupn\u011b vy\u010derpal. Nejv\u00edc je to vid\u011bt na nemovitostech, jich\u017e je nadbytek a\u00a0nem\u00e1 v\u00a0nich kdo bydlet.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm faktorem je nastaven\u00ed penzijn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, kdy sch\u00e9ma d\u016fchodov\u00e9ho poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed pro m\u011bstsk\u00e9 a\u00a0venkovsk\u00e9 obyvatele pokr\u00fdv\u00e1 550\u00a0milion\u016f lid\u00ed (z 95\u00a0procent jde o\u00a0obyvatele venkova), ale jejich d\u016fchody jsou natolik n\u00edzk\u00e9, \u017ee omezuj\u00ed spot\u0159ebu nejen jich samotn\u00fdch, ale nep\u0159\u00edmo i\u00a0jejich d\u011bt\u00ed, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed rodi\u010de finan\u010dn\u011b podporovat.<\/p>\n

Reforma a\u00a0dluh<\/p>\n

Ekonomov\u00e9 se shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee reforma ekonomiky by m\u011bla p\u0159im\u011bt obyvatele v\u00edc utr\u00e1cet. Nap\u0159\u00edklad podle uveden\u00e9ho Liou \u0160‘-\u0165ina by \u010c\u00edna v\u00a0horizontu zhruba t\u0159\u00ed let m\u011bla sn\u00ed\u017eit celkovou m\u00edru \u00faspor pod 40\u00a0procent HDP a\u00a0firemn\u00ed m\u00edru \u00faspor pod 20\u00a0procent tak, aby HDP rostlo i\u00a0na z\u00e1klad\u011b spot\u0159eby obyvatel.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm n\u00e1strojem m\u00e1 b\u00fdt zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdplat dividend st\u00e1tn\u00edch i\u00a0soukrom\u00fdch podnik\u016f a\u00a0p\u0159evod \u010d\u00e1sti akci\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edch podnik\u016f (v \u0159\u00e1du zhruba 20\u00a0bilion\u016f j\u00fcan\u016f, tj. 63\u00a0bilion\u016f korun) do syst\u00e9mu soci\u00e1ln\u00edho zabezpe\u010den\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se z\u00a0dosud nevypl\u00e1cen\u00fdch zisk\u016f staly re\u00e1ln\u00e9 penzijn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmy.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00fdm pil\u00ed\u0159em je da\u0148ov\u00e1 reforma sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed k\u00a0tomu, aby se sn\u00ed\u017eila nerovnost ve spole\u010dnosti. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, bohat\u0161\u00ed vrstvy by m\u011bly platit vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed dan\u011b z\u00a0p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f i\u00a0z majetku. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 tak\u00e9 navrhuj\u00ed, aby se makroekonomick\u00e9 stimula\u010dn\u00ed bal\u00ed\u010dky p\u0159esm\u011brovaly z\u00a0investic do infrastruktury na budov\u00e1n\u00ed soci\u00e1ln\u00edho syst\u00e9mu pro n\u00edzkop\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e9 a\u00a0st\u0159edn\u011bp\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e9 skupiny.<\/p>\n

Bez penzijn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd by \u010c\u00ed\u0148any zajistil na st\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, se \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 spot\u0159ebn\u00ed spole\u010dnost v\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b nerozvine. Ot\u00e1zkou v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, zda se t\u00edmto sm\u011brem veden\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 komunistick\u00e9 strany skute\u010dn\u011b vyd\u00e1. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed podle informac\u00ed z\u00a0posledn\u00edch dn\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161 k\u00a0tradi\u010dn\u00edmu n\u00e1stroji, tedy k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edmu vyd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed financovat dal\u0161\u00ed infrastrukturn\u00ed investice.<\/p>\n

Znamen\u00e1 to mimo jin\u00e9, \u017ee se prohlubuje vnit\u0159n\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd dluh, a\u00a0v budoucnu uvid\u00edme i\u00a0v centr\u00e1ln\u011b \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 ekonomice krize, kter\u00e9 dob\u0159e zn\u00e1me ze z\u00e1padn\u00edch ekonomik. Do t\u00e9 doby si v\u0161ak ale budeme u\u017e\u00edvat levn\u00e9ho \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad minul\u00fd t\u00fdden ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee hrub\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkt ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u011b vzrostl o\u00a04,3\u00a0procenta. To je…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":153785,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,2736,202,708,2700,688],"class_list":["post-153784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-celni-valka","tag-cina","tag-ekonomika","tag-export","tag-hruby-domaci-produkt-hdp"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116957019535600939","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=153784"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153784\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/153785"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=153784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=153784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=153784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}