{"id":155326,"date":"2026-07-22T16:28:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T16:28:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/155326\/"},"modified":"2026-07-22T16:28:12","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T16:28:12","slug":"ocima-byznysu-investori-meni-bleskove-nazor-a-rust-ai-akcii-se-zastavuje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/155326\/","title":{"rendered":"O\u010dima byznysu: Investo\u0159i m\u011bn\u00ed bleskov\u011b n\u00e1zor a\u00a0r\u016fst AI akci\u00ed se zastavuje"},"content":{"rendered":"

Na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch v\u00a0posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0prudk\u00e9mu obratu v\u00a0n\u00e1zorech investor\u016f. Na prvn\u00ed pohled se nezd\u00e1, \u017ee by se d\u011blo n\u011bco v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho, hlavn\u00ed akciov\u00e9 indexy v\u00a0USA sice zlev\u0148uj\u00ed, ale nikoli extr\u00e9mn\u00edm zp\u016fsobem. Index kol\u00edsavosti cen akci\u00ed VIX (n\u011bkdy tak\u00e9 ozna\u010dovan\u00fd jako \u201eindex strachu\u201c) z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 na velmi n\u00edzk\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch pod hranic\u00ed 20\u00a0bod\u016f. To nazna\u010duje, \u017ee investorsk\u00e1 n\u00e1lada je na povrchu dobr\u00e1. V\u00a0\u010dem je tedy h\u00e1\u010dek?<\/p>\n

Investo\u0159i se z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed, ale i\u00a0ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed AI m\u00e1nie<\/p>\n

P\u0159i pohledu na index kol\u00edsavosti cen akci\u00ed VIXEQ, kter\u00fd na rozd\u00edl od VIX m\u011b\u0159\u00ed kol\u00edsavost cen na jednotliv\u00fdch akciov\u00fdch titulech a\u00a0nikoli indexech, se ukazuje, \u017ee vznik\u00e1 historick\u00e1 anom\u00e1lie. Zat\u00edmco kol\u00edsavost cen na jednotliv\u00fdch akci\u00edch v\u00fdrazn\u011b roste ji\u017e n\u011bkolik\u00e1t\u00fdm m\u011bs\u00edcem, VIX z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 velmi n\u00edzko. Rozd\u00edl mezi t\u011bmito indik\u00e1tory je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, jak\u00fd byl za posledn\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e dek\u00e1du. R\u016fst t\u011bchto index\u016f b\u00fdv\u00e1 za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch okolnost\u00ed spjat s\u00a0propady na akciov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, proto\u017ee rostouc\u00ed hodnoty vypov\u00eddaj\u00ed o\u00a0rostouc\u00ed popt\u00e1vce po op\u010dn\u00edm zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed v\u016f\u010di propad\u016fm cen akci\u00ed. <\/p>\n

Ale i\u00a0p\u0159es siln\u00fd r\u016fst akciov\u00fdch trh\u016f v\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edm roce, index VIXEQ setrvale roste, co\u017e je neobvykl\u00e9. M\u016f\u017ee to znamenat, \u017ee se investo\u0159i i\u00a0p\u0159es velkou (a n\u011bkdy mo\u017en\u00e1 nucenou) \u00fa\u010dast na popul\u00e1rn\u00edch akciov\u00fdch titulech \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l v\u00edce zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed pro p\u0159\u00edpad tr\u017en\u00edch propad\u016f. Tento extr\u00e9mn\u00ed rozd\u00edl mezi ukazateli poukazuje na trh, kter\u00fd je v\u00fdrazn\u011b n\u00e1chyln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na \u0161patn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti.<\/p>\n

Pom\u011br t\u011bchto index\u016f (VIX\/VIXEQ) zobrazen\u00fd v\u00fd\u0161e v\u00a0grafu klesl na hodnoty, kter\u00e9 jsme nevid\u011bli v\u00edce ne\u017e dek\u00e1du. To n\u00e1m \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee skepticismus investor\u016f nar\u016fst\u00e1 i\u00a0p\u0159es vysokou n\u00e1vratnost popul\u00e1rn\u00edch investic do titul\u016f spojen\u00fdch s\u00a0um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed (AI).<\/p>\n

Investo\u0159i m\u011bn\u00ed sv\u016fj n\u00e1zor na trhy bezprecedentn\u00edm tempem. Ruku v\u00a0ruce s\u00a0t\u00edm v\u00a0posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech za\u010daly siln\u00e9 v\u00fdprodeje obl\u00edben\u00fdch akciov\u00fdch titul\u016f spojen\u00fdch s\u00a0t\u00e9matem um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence. Specificky se jedn\u00e1 hlavn\u011b o\u00a0v\u00fdrobce pam\u011bt\u00ed, jako jsou Sandisk, Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung apod. Tyto a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed spole\u010dnosti jsou v\u00a0epicentru leto\u0161n\u00ed m\u00e1nie kolem AI, jejich\u017e akcie \u010dasto narostly o\u00a0des\u00edtky a\u017e stovky procent za n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 jejich propady v\u00a0posledn\u00edch dnech a\u00a0t\u00fddnech jsou na historick\u00e9 pom\u011bry velmi ostr\u00e9. Trh si tak mo\u017en\u00e1 hled\u00e1 novou rovnov\u00e1hu po obdob\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u011b koncentrovan\u00e9 alokace kapit\u00e1lu do t\u011bchto spole\u010dnost\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad korejsk\u00fd akciov\u00fd index KOSPI spadl o\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e 30\u00a0% ze sv\u00e9ho vrcholu p\u0159ed pouh\u00fdm m\u011bs\u00edcem! To vedlo k\u00a0velk\u00e9 vln\u011b tzv. margin call\u016f (v\u00fdzev broker\u016f k\u00a0dopln\u011bn\u00ed pen\u011bz, jinak hroz\u00ed nucen\u00fd prodej investic), co\u017e se dotklo v\u00edce ne\u017e 1\u00a0200\u00a0000\u00a0\u00fa\u010dt\u016f.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Podobn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh vypr\u00e1v\u00ed i\u00a0data investi\u010dn\u00ed banky Goldman Sachs. Velk\u00e9 profesion\u00e1ln\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed (hedge) fondy sledovan\u00e9 bankou prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed technologick\u00e9 akcie rekordn\u00edm tempem. Prudk\u00e9 v\u00fdprodeje se odehr\u00e1valy p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0odv\u011btv\u00ed polovodi\u010d\u016f, v\u00fdrobc\u016f pam\u011b\u0165ov\u00fdch \u010dip\u016f a\u00a0infrastruktury pro um\u011blou inteligenci. Bank\u00e9\u0159i p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm poukazuj\u00ed na d\u00e9lku a\u00a0rozsah v\u00fdprodej\u016f od za\u010d\u00e1tku \u010dervna, a\u00a0nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee se mohou objevovat ur\u010dit\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky kapitulace (stav panick\u00fdch v\u00fdprodej\u016f). Bank\u00e9\u0159i upozor\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee pokud toto tempo v\u00fdprodej\u016f bude pokra\u010dovat, budou m\u00edt americk\u00e9 akciov\u00e9 fondy nejmen\u0161\u00ed alokaci pen\u011bz do technologick\u00fdch titul\u016f za posledn\u00edch p\u011bt\u00a0let.<\/p>\n

Investo\u0159i p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed sv\u016fj kapit\u00e1l do jin\u00fdch, \u010dasto v\u00fdrazn\u011b levn\u011bji ocen\u011bn\u00fdch sektor\u016f, jako jsou spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, softwarov\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, finan\u010dnictv\u00ed nebo zdravotnictv\u00ed. Tyto p\u0159esuny mohou b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edznakem obav z\u00a0rizika, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed technologick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti ze skupiny Magnificent Seven (Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet \u2026) by mohly brzy za\u010d\u00edt omezovat p\u0159\u00edliv investi\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f do AI. Tento trend by mohl kv\u016fli absenci p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fdch novinek v\u00a0dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b nad\u00e1le kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b pokra\u010dovat, a\u00a0to i\u00a0navzdory \u201esolidn\u00edm fundament\u016fm\u201c.<\/p>\n

Tak\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed banka Morgan Stanley ukazuje podobn\u011b razantn\u00ed zm\u011bny v\u00a0investorsk\u00e9m sentimentu na sv\u00e9m modelov\u00e9m portfoliu TMT momentum pair. R\u016fst a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00fd prudk\u00fd propad portfolia byl nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00a0posledn\u00edch v\u00edce ne\u017e dvou dek\u00e1d\u00e1ch a\u00a0je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e po splasknut\u00ed dot-com bubliny. Akcie, na jejich\u017e pokles investo\u0159i nejv\u00edce s\u00e1zeli, najednou prudce rostou, zat\u00edmco dosavadn\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzov\u00e9 trhu se prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed, co\u017e zp\u016fsobuje velk\u00fd propad modelu TMT momentum pair, jak je zobrazeno v\u00a0grafu v\u00fd\u0161e.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Trh\u016fm doch\u00e1z\u00ed kysl\u00edk, AI bublina v\u00a0ohro\u017een\u00ed<\/p>\n

Na trz\u00edch akci\u00ed se tak v\u00a0minul\u00fdch t\u00fddnech p\u00ed\u0161e historie, kdy rychlost, se kterou investo\u0159i m\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00e9 n\u00e1zory, je bezprecedentn\u00ed. Ukazatele Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, \u010di pom\u011br VIX\/VIXEQ, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1me k\u00a0dispozici, dok\u00e1zaly zachytit tuto ud\u00e1lost. Je to nejrychlej\u0161\u00ed p\u0159esun kapit\u00e1lu v\u00a0m\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 historii, kter\u00fd p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm tkv\u00ed v\u00a0p\u0159ehnan\u011b euforick\u00e9 n\u00e1lad\u011b investor\u016f.<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmavost\u00ed je, \u017ee tento obrat \u010dasov\u011b velmi \u00fazce souvis\u00ed s\u00a0prim\u00e1rn\u00edm \u00fapisem akci\u00ed a\u00a0dluhopis\u016f SpaceX Elona Muska na po\u010d\u00e1tku \u010dervna, kter\u00e9 z\u00a0trh\u016f vys\u00e1ly zhruba 100\u00a0miliard dolar\u016f. Nejen to, ale i\u00a0pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed emise dluhopis\u016f americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, rostouc\u00ed v\u00fdnosy st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0IPO dal\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f, jako je SK Hynix, vede k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee likvidita na trz\u00edch kles\u00e1 a\u00a0mo\u017enost investor\u016f \u010dinit nov\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy t\u00edm upad\u00e1.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdznamn\u00fd je tak\u00e9 obrat u\u00a0velk\u00fdch technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed ze skupiny Magnificent Seven, kter\u00e9 nov\u011b kv\u016fli masivn\u00edm investic\u00edm do AI zastavuj\u00ed zp\u011btn\u00e9 odkupy, a\u00a0naopak emituj\u00ed nov\u00e9 akcie a\u00a0dluhopisy, co\u017e znovu vys\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00a0trh\u016f likviditu. Takov\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edhodn\u00e9 pro manick\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed narativy, a\u00a0to se nyn\u00ed za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 ukazovat. Dosavadn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj je\u0161t\u011b s\u00e1m o\u00a0sob\u011b nedokazuje splasknut\u00ed AI bubliny. Ukazuje v\u0161ak, \u017ee investo\u0159i u\u017e nejsou ochotni bez rozd\u00edlu nakupovat v\u0161echny spole\u010dnosti spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch v\u00a0posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0prudk\u00e9mu obratu v\u00a0n\u00e1zorech investor\u016f. Na prvn\u00ed pohled se nezd\u00e1, \u017ee by se…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":155327,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[412,623,67,68,4913,69,882,126],"class_list":["post-155326","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-akcie","tag-burza","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-index","tag-investice","tag-technologie","tag-umela-inteligence-ai"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116964576870041536","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155326","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=155326"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155326\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/155327"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=155326"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=155326"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=155326"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}