{"id":155875,"date":"2026-07-23T07:53:14","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T07:53:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/155875\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T07:53:14","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T07:53:14","slug":"kyjev-i-moskva-padly-do-pasti-vzdusne-valky-ze-ktere-nemaji-jak-uniknout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/155875\/","title":{"rendered":"Kyjev i\u00a0Moskva padly do pasti vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, ze kter\u00e9 nemaj\u00ed jak uniknout"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sest\u0159elen\u00ed jedn\u00e9 balistick\u00e9 rakety nad Kyjevem by \u201epodle u\u010debnic\u201c m\u011blo st\u00e1t 14\u00a0a\u017e 21\u00a0milion\u016f dolar\u016f, tedy 300\u00a0a\u017e 450\u00a0milion\u016f korun. Americk\u00e1 doktr\u00edna toti\u017e p\u0159edepisuje vyslat na c\u00edl, kter\u00fd se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed rychlost\u00ed n\u011bkolika kilometr\u016f za sekundu, dv\u011b a\u017e t\u0159i st\u0159ely PAC-3\u00a0syst\u00e9mu Patriot. Jedna p\u0159itom vyjde zhruba na sedm milion\u016f<\/a> dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed oper\u00e1to\u0159i si takov\u00fd p\u0159epych dovolit nemohou: kv\u016fli nedostatku munice p\u00e1l\u00ed na c\u00edl \u010dasto jedinou st\u0159elu<\/a> a\u00a0smi\u0159uj\u00ed se s\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm rizikem, \u017ee \u201eprotist\u0159ela\u201c mine.<\/p>\n

\u00dato\u010d\u00edc\u00ed rusk\u00fd Iskander p\u0159itom podle odhad\u016f stoj\u00ed kolem 1,4\u00a0milionu<\/a> dolar\u016f. Obrana tedy i\u00a0p\u0159i t\u00e9 nej\u00fasporn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed st\u0159elb\u011b plat\u00ed za sest\u0159el n\u011bkolikan\u00e1sobek ceny \u00fatoku.<\/p>\n

To ov\u0161em plat\u00ed pouze, pokud m\u00e1 obr\u00e1nce v\u016fbec \u010d\u00edm st\u0159\u00edlet. Cel\u00fd sv\u011bt vyrob\u00ed ro\u010dn\u011b kolem 600\u00a0st\u0159el PAC-3: americk\u00fd Lockheed Martin slibuje zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed na 2000\u00a0kus\u016f a\u017e ke konci desetilet\u00ed, japonsk\u00e1 Mitsubishi p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 asi 30\u00a0ro\u010dn\u011b a\u00a0\u010d\u00e1st z\u00e1sob letos od\u010derpala v\u00e1lka s\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/p>\n

Ukrajina by p\u0159itom podle hrub\u00e9ho propo\u010dtu<\/a> analytika Fabiana Hoffmanna pot\u0159ebovala ke spolehliv\u00e9 ochran\u011b p\u0159ed rusk\u00fdmi raketami kolem 140\u00a0st\u0159el m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b\u00a0\u2013 tedy munici zhruba za miliardu dolar\u016f ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc.\u00a0Co\u017e by byl z\u00e1rove\u0148\u00a0zhruba trojn\u00e1sobek sou\u010dasn\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce.<\/p>\n

Tato jednoduch\u00e1 aritmetika vysv\u011btluje i\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bh leto\u0161n\u00edho l\u00e9ta na\u00a0obloze nad Ruskem a\u00a0Ukrajinou. Na Kyjev dopadaj\u00ed rusk\u00e9 balistick\u00e9 rakety, ani\u017e by na n\u011b obrana vyst\u0159elila. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b linie ho\u0159ely rusk\u00e9 rafinerie, leti\u0161t\u011b a\u00a0lod\u011b po \u00faderech ukrajinsk\u00fdch dron\u016f, proto\u017ee rusk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana nedok\u00e1\u017ee pokr\u00fdt tis\u00edce mo\u017en\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f. Ob\u011b obrany selh\u00e1vaj\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u011b a\u00a0ze stejn\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu: nezkrachovaly kv\u016fli neschopnosti \u010di \u0161patn\u00e9 technice, ale kv\u016fli cen\u011b.<\/p>\n

Pozemn\u00ed fronta se mezit\u00edm t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 neh\u00fdbe. Drony prom\u011bnily ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u0159esun ve viditeln\u00fd a\u00a0snadno zasa\u017eiteln\u00fd c\u00edl, rusk\u00fd postup se m\u011b\u0159\u00ed na stovky metr\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b a\u00a0Moskva za n\u011bj plat\u00ed obrovsk\u00fdmi ztr\u00e1tami. Vzduch je tak posledn\u00edm boji\u0161t\u011bm, kde ob\u011b strany je\u0161t\u011b mohou o\u00a0n\u011bco usilovat. V\u00fdsledkem jsou dv\u011b hloubkov\u00e9 kampan\u011b\u00a0\u2013 ob\u011b ni\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdykoli d\u0159\u00edv\u00a0\u2013 z\u00a0nich\u017e ani jedna zat\u00edm nep\u0159inesla v\u00fdsledek, kter\u00fd by v\u00e1lku p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eil ke konci.<\/p>\n

Protist\u0159ely doch\u00e1zej\u00ed i\u00a0ochotn\u00fdm spojenc\u016fm<\/p>\n

\u0160est\u00e9ho \u010dervence, v\u00a0p\u0159edve\u010der summitu NATO, odp\u00e1lilo Rusko na Kyjev 23\u00a0raket Iskander a\u00a0\u0161est\u00a0hypersonick\u00fdch st\u0159el Zirkon. Obrana nesest\u0159elila ani jednu<\/a> a\u00a0ve m\u011bst\u011b zem\u0159elo nejm\u00e9n\u011b 26\u00a0lid\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ne\u0161lo o\u00a0v\u00fdjimku: v\u00a0\u010dervnu ukrajinsk\u00e1 obrana zachytila jen 14\u00a0z\u00a054\u00a0balistick\u00fdch raket, tedy pouze zhruba \u010dtvrtinu. P\u0159itom leto\u0161n\u00ed rok je\u00a0\u2013 co se t\u00fd\u010de po\u010dtu p\u0159il\u00e9taj\u00edc\u00ed munice\u00a0\u2013 v\u016fbec nejhor\u0161\u00ed: za prvn\u00ed pololet\u00ed Rusko odp\u00e1lilo 521\u00a0balistick\u00fdch raket, co\u017e je proti lo\u0148sku dvojn\u00e1sobn\u00e9 tempo.<\/p>\n

Ukrajin\u011b ov\u0161em do\u0161ly zmi\u0148ovan\u00e9 st\u0159ely PAC-3, jedin\u00e1 spolehliv\u00e1 protizbra\u0148 proti balistick\u00fdm raket\u00e1m. Bilance se kr\u00e1tce zlep\u0161ila 14.\u00a0\u010dervence, kdy obrana zni\u010dila p\u011bt z\u00a0osmi<\/a> \u00fato\u010d\u00edc\u00edch raket, poprv\u00e9 po t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dvou t\u00fddnech. O\u00a0dv\u011b noci pozd\u011bji ale na Kyjev dopadla dal\u0161\u00ed balistick\u00e1 salva\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0u\u017e op\u011bt bez jedin\u00e9ho \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9ho sest\u0159elu.<\/p>\n

Prezident Volodymyr Zelenskyj popsal v\u00a0rozhovoru pro Financial Times<\/a>, jak vypad\u00e1 z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed obrany: protirakety podle n\u011bj n\u011bkdy doraz\u00ed den p\u0159ed velk\u00fdm \u00fatokem. Spojenci toti\u017e nemaj\u00ed odkud br\u00e1t. Nizozemsko ozn\u00e1milo, \u017ee sv\u00e9 mo\u017enosti vy\u010derpalo, a\u00a0polsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Donald Tusk odm\u00edtl<\/a> poslat dal\u0161\u00ed st\u0159ely s\u00a0odkazem na to, \u017ee polsk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby jsou t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 vy\u010derpan\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Foto: \u0160imon, Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

Po\u010dty vyp\u00e1len\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el a\u00a0\u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost ukrajinsk\u00e9 obrany proti nim.<\/p>\n

Ani americk\u00e1 licence na dom\u00e1c\u00ed v\u00fdrobu st\u0159el, kterou Ukrajina z\u00edskala po summitu NATO v\u00a0Anka\u0159e, na tom v\u00a0dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b mnoho nezm\u011bn\u00ed. Japonsko po z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed stejn\u00e9 licence pot\u0159ebovalo t\u0159i roky<\/a> k\u00a0prvn\u00edmu \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9mu testu a\u00a0dnes vyr\u00e1b\u00ed kolem ji\u017e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch 30\u00a0st\u0159el ro\u010dn\u011b. A\u00a0t\u0159eba N\u011bmecko od ud\u011blen\u00ed licence v\u00a0roce 2022\u00a0je\u0161t\u011b nevyrobilo ani jednu. \u00dazk\u00fdm hrdlem v\u00fdroby jsou toti\u017e nap\u0159\u00edklad nav\u00e1d\u011bc\u00ed hlavice, kter\u00e9 um\u00ed vyrobit jedin\u00e1 firma na sv\u011bt\u011b\u00a0\u2013 americk\u00fd Boeing.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby balistick\u00fdch raket tak\u00e9 nejsou bezedn\u00e9, ale p\u0159ece jen jsou hlub\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e tak\u0159ka vypr\u00e1zdn\u011bn\u00e9 sklady ukrajinsk\u00e9 protileteck\u00e9 obrany. Z\u00a0Hoffmannovy anal\u00fdzy zbrojn\u00edch zak\u00e1zek vypl\u00fdv\u00e1<\/a>, \u017ee Rusko vyr\u00e1b\u00ed 600\u00a0a\u017e 800\u00a0balistick\u00fdch raket ro\u010dn\u011b, co\u017e sta\u010d\u00ed na 50\u00a0a\u017e 70\u00a0odpal\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b a\u00a0ob\u010dasnou velkou salvu po n\u011bkolika t\u00fddnech st\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Na systematick\u00e9 srovn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 infrastruktury se zem\u00ed je to m\u00e1lo. Dokud v\u0161ak obrana nem\u00e1 \u010d\u00edm st\u0159\u00edlet, rozhoduje pom\u011br cen, a\u00a0ten hraje jasn\u011b pro \u00fato\u010dn\u00edka.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd m\u011bkk\u00fd t\u00fdl<\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 stoj\u00ed na stejn\u00e9m pom\u011bru, jen obr\u00e1cen\u00e9m. Jej\u00ed hlavn\u00ed zbran\u00ed jsou d\u00e1lkov\u00e9 drony, kter\u00e9 se vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed po tis\u00edc\u00edch a\u00a0stoj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inou v\u00fdrazn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e protiletadlov\u00e9 rakety, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 strana k\u00a0dispozici. Ukrajina jimi m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed zejm\u00e9na na rusk\u00fd ropn\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, naprosto\u00a0kl\u00ed\u010dovou nohu rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky.<\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee vy\u0159adila 42,7\u00a0%<\/a> rusk\u00e9 rafin\u00e9rsk\u00e9 kapacity, den\u00edk Financial Times odhaduje zhruba 40\u00a0%<\/a> a\u00a0analytici Carnegie p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00fd jarn\u00ed v\u00fdpadek v\u00fdroby byl men\u0161\u00ed, do 13\u00a0%, proto\u017ee po\u0161kozen\u00e9 provozy se pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u011b opravuj\u00ed. I\u00a0ta opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla ov\u0161em znamenaj\u00ed palivov\u00e9 restrikce v\u00a0regionech, kde \u017eije kolem 50\u00a0milion\u016f lid\u00ed<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Rekord kampan\u011b dr\u017e\u00ed \u010dervencov\u00fd \u00fatok na rafinerii v\u00a0Omsku<\/a>, 2500\u00a0kilometr\u016f od ukrajinsk\u00fdch hranic. A\u00a014.\u00a0\u010dervence zas\u00e1hly drony po zhruba 1500\u00a0kilometrech letu kombin\u00e1t Salavat v\u00a0Ba\u0161kirsku\u00a0\u2013 podle ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy i\u00a0listu Ukrajinska pravda<\/a> posledn\u00ed velkou ruskou rafinerii, kter\u00e1 letos \u00fader\u016fm unikala.<\/p>\n

Foto: \u0160imon, Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

\u00datoky na rusk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 rafinerie.<\/p>\n

V Azovsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i ukrajinsk\u00e9 drony mezit\u00edm fakticky zastavily lodn\u00ed dopravu. S\u00edly bezpilotn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee od 6.\u00a0\u010dervence zas\u00e1hly 116\u00a0plavidel; den\u00edk The New York Times<\/a> nez\u00e1visle ov\u011b\u0159il z\u00e1sahy nejm\u00e9n\u011b 11\u00a0lod\u00ed a\u00a0analytici konzulta\u010dn\u00ed firmy Ambrey napo\u010d\u00edtali z\u00a0videoz\u00e1znam\u016f 30\u00a0a\u017e 35\u00a0z\u00e1sah\u016f za \u010dty\u0159i dny.<\/p>\n

A\u0165 je v\u0161ak p\u0159esn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo jak\u00e9koli, fronta lod\u00ed \u010dekaj\u00edc\u00edch na proplut\u00ed Ker\u010dsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem se mezi 6.\u00a0a\u00a011.\u00a0\u010dervencem zmen\u0161ila<\/a> z\u00a098\u00a0na t\u0159i\u00a0a\u00a0provoz na mo\u0159i (podle transpond\u00e9rov\u00fdch dat, tedy odpov\u00edda\u010d\u016f na lod\u00edch) klesl o\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e polovinu<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Rusko nav\u00edc pozastavilo plavbu kan\u00e1lem mezi Donem a\u00a0Azovsk\u00fdm mo\u0159em, kter\u00fdm podle odhad\u016f proch\u00e1z\u00ed a\u017e \u010dtvrtina rusk\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu p\u0161enice. Drony p\u0159itom m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed na m\u016fstky a\u00a0kormidelny: mal\u00e1 hlavice tanker nepotop\u00ed, na jeho vy\u0159azen\u00ed z\u00a0provozu ale sta\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ruskem okupovan\u00fd poloostrov Krym poc\u00edtil tot\u00e9\u017e d\u0159\u00edv a\u00a0siln\u011bji. Po \u00faderech na rozvodny a\u00a0elektr\u00e1rny za\u017eil za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u010dervence plo\u0161n\u00e9 v\u00fdpadky proudu, trajektov\u00e1 flotila p\u0159es Ker\u010dsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv se zten\u010dila ze sedmi lod\u00ed na dv\u011b a\u00a0od 13.\u00a0\u010dervence tam rusk\u00fd \u010cerven\u00fd k\u0159\u00ed\u017e rozd\u00e1v\u00e1<\/a> humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed pomoc. S\u00a0Ruskem poloostrov spojuje jen n\u011bkolik snadno spo\u010ditateln\u00fdch dopravn\u00edch tepen, a\u00a0pr\u00e1v\u011b proto se stal pro novou generaci dron\u016f ide\u00e1ln\u00edm c\u00edlem.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 obrana \u0159e\u0161\u00ed tut\u00e9\u017e po\u010detn\u00ed \u00falohu jako ukrajinsk\u00e1, jen s\u00a0jin\u00fdmi \u010d\u00edsly. C\u00edl\u016f, kter\u00e9 stoj\u00ed za dron nebo \u0159\u00edzenou st\u0159elu, jsou p\u0159itom jen v\u00a0evropsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Ruska tis\u00edce. Moskva u\u017e kv\u016fli tomu stahuje<\/a> protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 syst\u00e9my i\u00a0od pol\u00e1rn\u00edho kruhu.<\/p>\n

Soub\u011b\u017en\u011b se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00e1vod v\u00a0technice: kdy\u017e ukrajinsk\u00e9 st\u00edhac\u00ed drony dok\u00e1zaly sr\u00e1\u017eet z\u00a0oblohy p\u0159es 90\u00a0% klasick\u00fdch dron\u016f s\u00a0vrtulov\u00fdm pohonem, za\u010dalo Rusko ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e nasazovat rychlej\u0161\u00ed proudov\u00e9 verze.<\/p>\n

Co bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed (ne)um\u00ed<\/p>\n

Samotn\u00e1 vzdu\u0161n\u00e1 s\u00edla podle star\u00e9 pou\u010dky v\u00e1lky nevyhr\u00e1v\u00e1; ovliv\u0148uje v\u0161ak, co protivn\u00edk dok\u00e1\u017ee nahradit, opravit, ochr\u00e1nit a\u00a0politicky un\u00e9st. Ob\u011b kampan\u011b jsou velmi destruktivn\u00ed a\u00a0\u0161kody na obou stran\u00e1ch rostou rychleji, ne\u017e se je da\u0159\u00ed opravovat. Ale zni\u010denou vojenskou techniku, tov\u00e1rny, sklady \u010di rafinerie zat\u00edm nedok\u00e1zaly Kyjev ani Moskva \u201ep\u0159ev\u00e9st\u201c v\u00a0to nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed: v\u00a0politick\u00fd v\u00fdsledek.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 balistick\u00e1 p\u0159evaha nejsp\u00ed\u0161 nepovede k\u00a0syst\u00e9mov\u00e9mu zhroucen\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed po vzoru N\u011bmecka na konci druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, a\u00a0to ze dvou d\u016fvod\u016f. Prvn\u00edm je v\u00e1ha \u00faderu: 50\u00a0a\u017e 70\u00a0p\u0159esn\u00fdch hlavic m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b se ned\u00e1 srovnat se statis\u00edci tunami pum, kter\u00e9 na N\u011bmecko ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc shazovaly tis\u00edce spojeneck\u00fdch bombard\u00e9r\u016f.<\/p>\n

Rozd\u00edl v\u00a0p\u0159esnosti je pochopiteln\u011b ohromn\u00fd a\u00a0t\u0159eba velk\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny Ukrajina b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky vr\u00e1t\u00ed do provozu t\u011b\u017eko, proto\u017ee balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely je v\u017edy dok\u00e1\u017eou znovu poni\u010dit. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b \u0159ada provoz\u016f se d\u00e1 \u201erozd\u011blit\u201c na men\u0161\u00ed c\u00edle, kter\u00fdch bude pro omezen\u00e9 po\u010dty rusk\u00fdch balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el u\u017e prost\u011b p\u0159\u00edli\u0161. Po\u010detn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed munici, drony a\u00a0st\u0159ely s\u00a0plochou dr\u00e1hou letu, p\u0159itom ukrajinsk\u00e1 obrana naopak zastavuje l\u00e9pe ne\u017e kdy p\u0159edt\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00fdm faktorem jsou st\u00e1tn\u00ed hranice: st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st ukrajinsk\u00e9ho v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed le\u017e\u00ed fyzicky za hranicemi mo\u017enost\u00ed rusk\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Protirakety se vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed v\u00a0Americe a\u00a0Japonsku, ukrajinsk\u00e9 st\u0159ely Bars se budou licen\u010dn\u011b vyr\u00e1b\u011bt v\u00a0N\u011bmecku, pen\u00edze p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed z\u00a0Evropy. N\u011bmecko v\u00a0roce 1944\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 takov\u00e9 z\u00e1zem\u00ed nem\u011blo. Ale nap\u0159\u00edklad severn\u00ed Vietnam ano\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0tak, i\u00a0kdy\u017e na n\u011bj Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty svrhly v\u00edce pum ne\u017e na N\u011bmecko, ke\u00a0kapitulaci ho nedonutily.<\/p>\n

Foto: \u0160imon, Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

Ukrajinskou stranou hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9 po\u010dty rusk\u00fdch bezpilotn\u00edch letoun\u016f a\u00a0po\u010dty nahl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fdch z\u00e1sah\u016f (tedy nezachycen\u00fdch dron\u016f).<\/p>\n

Nejkrvav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc pro civilisty<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 \u00fadery tak\u00e9 nezlom\u00ed ukrajinskou ve\u0159ejnost. Prvn\u00ed teoretici leteck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky (nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00ed byl italsk\u00fd gener\u00e1l Giulio Douhet) sice v\u011b\u0159ili, \u017ee modern\u00ed m\u011bstsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost je psychicky k\u0159ehk\u00e1 a\u00a0podobnou z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e nevydr\u017e\u00ed\u00a0\u2013 v\u00a0jejich p\u0159edstav\u00e1ch m\u011bly v\u00e1lky kon\u010dit pot\u00e9, co bombard\u00e9ry oblet\u00ed arm\u00e1dy, ude\u0159\u00ed na m\u011bsta a\u00a0vynut\u00ed si paniku, kolaps v\u00fdroby a\u00a0vol\u00e1n\u00ed po m\u00edru.<\/p>\n

Jak uk\u00e1zala<\/a> histori\u010dka Tami Davis Biddle, tato v\u00edra p\u0159e\u017e\u00edvala mezi ob\u011bma sv\u011btov\u00fdmi v\u00e1lkami i\u00a0p\u0159es to, \u017ee d\u016fkazy pro ni byly slab\u00e9\u00a0\u2013 \u010d\u00e1st voj\u00e1k\u016f a\u00a0politik\u016f v\u00a0s\u00edlu nov\u00e9 zbran\u011b patrn\u011b jednodu\u0161e cht\u011bla v\u011b\u0159it. Ov\u0161em druh\u00e1 sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka velkou \u010d\u00e1st t\u00e9to hypot\u00e9zy velmi p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u011b vyvr\u00e1tila: mor\u00e1lka bombardovan\u00fdch klesala a\u00a0v\u00fdroba trp\u011bla, ale britsk\u00e1, n\u011bmeck\u00e1 ani japonsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost se nezhroutila a\u00a0m\u00edr si na sv\u00fdch vl\u00e1d\u00e1ch nevynutila.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Moskva to t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b v\u00ed a\u00a0jej\u00ed c\u00edlen\u00ed tomu odpov\u00edd\u00e1: hlavn\u00edmi ter\u010di jsou pro ni zbrojovky, sklady, leti\u0161t\u011b a\u00a0energetika. Civiln\u00ed ob\u011bti jsou \u201evedlej\u0161\u00edm produktem\u201c jeho snah\u00a0\u2013 i\u00a0kdy\u017e Moskva v\u00a0n\u011bm zjevn\u011b nevid\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed \u201eprobl\u00e9m\u201c. \u010cerven 2026\u00a0tak podle OSN<\/a> byl s\u00a0293\u00a0mrtv\u00fdmi a\u00a01990\u00a0zran\u011bn\u00fdmi nejkrvav\u011bj\u0161\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edcem pro ukrajinsk\u00e9 civilisty od jara 2022.\u00a0Celkem 45\u00a0% ob\u011bt\u00ed m\u011bly p\u0159itom na sv\u011bdom\u00ed zbran\u011b dalek\u00e9ho dosahu.<\/p>\n

Cynicky \u0159e\u010deno: pokud Moskva nebude za ob\u011bti platit n\u011bjakou (politickou) cenu, nem\u00e1 smysl se ot\u00e1zkou civiln\u00edch ob\u011bt\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 zab\u00fdvat. Vzdu\u0161n\u00fd \u201eteror\u201c si \u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 konstrukci kryt\u016f, opravy a\u00a0p\u0159esun protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, a\u00a0to v\u0161echno od\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1 protivn\u00edkovy zdroje z\u00a0fronty.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 strana \u00fa\u010dtu<\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b st\u0159\u00edzliv\u011b je pot\u0159eba v\u00e1\u017eit i\u00a0\u00fa\u010dinky ukrajinsk\u00e9 kampan\u011b. \u017de Rusko \u00fadery c\u00edt\u00ed, je z\u00a0\u010d\u00edsel z\u0159ejm\u00e9: v\u00fdroba benzinu podle zdroj\u016f agentury Reuters<\/a> pokr\u00fdv\u00e1 jen asi 65\u00a0% dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vky, t\u011b\u017eba ropy klesla na nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148<\/a> za dva a\u00a0p\u016fl roku a\u00a0p\u0159ed invaz\u00ed p\u0159itom dan\u011b a\u00a0cla z\u00a0ropy a\u00a0plynu tvo\u0159ily 45\u00a0%<\/a> p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu. Podle odhadu washingtonsk\u00e9ho institutu CSIS<\/a> m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed kampa\u0148 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm sem: m\u00e1 p\u0159en\u00e9st n\u00e1klady v\u00e1lky na ty, kdo z\u00a0ropn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f \u017eij\u00ed, a\u00a0vyvolat t\u0159en\u00ed mezi moskevsk\u00fdmi elitami.<\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00a0t\u011bchto ran se ov\u0161em nezd\u00e1 smrteln\u00e1. Rafinerie se daj\u00ed opravit: p\u0159edchoz\u00ed vlny \u00fader\u016f srazily rusk\u00e9 zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed ropy zhruba o\u00a0desetinu a\u00a0v\u00fdroba se poka\u017ed\u00e9 b\u011bhem t\u00fddn\u016f vr\u00e1tila na p\u016fvodn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148. V\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli jsou probl\u00e9my na stran\u011b rusk\u00fdch spot\u0159ebitel\u016f, arm\u00e1dy se p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 net\u00fdkaj\u00ed. Mimo jin\u00e9 i\u00a0proto, \u017ee v\u00e1lka se bojuje do velk\u00e9 m\u00edry s\u00a0pomoc\u00ed p\u011bchoty, kter\u00e1 naftu k\u00a0\u00fatoku nepot\u0159ebuje.<\/p>\n

\u0160kody zat\u00edm Rusko jen vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00ed, ale nedok\u00e1zaly ho ochromit. Kyjev zjevn\u011b s\u00e1z\u00ed na to, \u017ee by se to mohlo postupn\u011b zm\u011bnit, ov\u0161em nepochybn\u011b ani ru\u0161t\u00ed, ani ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed pl\u00e1nova\u010di nev\u011bd\u00ed zcela p\u0159esn\u011b, kolik toho rusk\u00fd ropn\u00fd pr\u016fmysl je\u0161t\u011b \u201esnese\u201c. Kolapsy v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadech podobn\u00fdch slo\u017eit\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f mohou p\u0159ij\u00edt zcela ne\u010dekan\u011b a\u00a0n\u00e1hle, b\u00fdvaj\u00ed t\u011b\u017eko p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9. Ale v\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jsme od n\u011bj podle znalc\u016f rusk\u00e9ho ropn\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu (jeden p\u0159\u00edklad<\/a>) st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b daleko.<\/p>\n

Podobn\u00e9 je to s\u00a0Krymem. Pro Kreml je poloostrov politicky citliv\u00e9 m\u00edsto, vojensky se v\u0161ak bez jeho pln\u00e9ho provozu obejde; zhasnut\u00e1 m\u011bsta a\u00a0rozd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed pomoci jsou pro Moskvu pon\u00ed\u017een\u00edm, bezprost\u0159edn\u011b ale neohro\u017euj\u00ed frontu ani stabilitu re\u017eimu. Kreml se podle toho tak\u00e9 chov\u00e1: Putin sl\u00edbil pos\u00edlit z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed po mo\u0159i<\/a>, o\u00a0\u00fastupc\u00edch v\u0161ak nemluv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

A do t\u0159etice rusk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost. Fronty u\u00a0benzinov\u00fdch pump plod\u00ed rept\u00e1n\u00ed, ale ne odpor. Lid\u00e9 mohou v\u00e1lku nen\u00e1vid\u011bt, a\u00a0p\u0159esto nejsou schopni ani ochotni ji zastavit. V\u00a0zemi, kde je ve\u0159ejn\u00fd protest trestn\u00fdm \u010dinem, to plat\u00ed dvojn\u00e1sob. Ostatn\u011b i\u00a0hn\u011bv rusk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch bloger\u016f nad ho\u0159\u00edc\u00edmi tankery m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed na vlastn\u00ed admir\u00e1ly a\u00a0gener\u00e1ly; v\u00e1lku samotnou nezpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 tedy Rusku prokazateln\u011b zdra\u017euje v\u00e1lku, ub\u00edr\u00e1 rozpo\u010dtu a\u00a0d\u00e1v\u00e1 Kyjevu do ruky p\u00e1ky pro budouc\u00ed vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Donutit Moskvu k\u00a0m\u00edru za podm\u00ednek, kter\u00e9 by sama pova\u017eovala za por\u00e1\u017eku, v\u0161ak (alespo\u0148 zat\u00edm) nedok\u00e1\u017ee.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 v\u00fdhoda na stran\u011b \u00fato\u010dn\u00edka ve vzduchu nevydr\u017e\u00ed nav\u017edy. Oba protivn\u00edci hledaj\u00ed zp\u016fsoby, jak z\u00a0pasti \u201ep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 drah\u00e9 obrany\u201c uniknout. Prvn\u00ed cesta je zni\u010dit protivn\u00edkovy zbran\u011b, ne\u017e se dostanou do vzduchu: Ukrajina proto \u00fato\u010d\u00ed<\/a> na rusk\u00fd raketov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl a\u00a0rusk\u00e9 ministerstvo obrany po jednom z\u00a0\u010dervencov\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f na Kyjev ozn\u00e1milo<\/a>, \u017ee c\u00edlem byly tov\u00e1rny na d\u00e1lkov\u00e9 rakety a\u00a0drony.<\/p>\n

Druhou cestou je vyvinout obranu levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u00fatok. Kolem ukrajinsk\u00e9ho protiraketov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu Freyja vznikla v\u00a0Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei koalice deseti zem\u00ed<\/a>, kter\u00e1 chce m\u00edt levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obdobu Patriot\u016f ve vzduchu do 12\u00a0m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Stejn\u00e1 logika poh\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdvoj st\u00edhac\u00edch dron\u016f proti v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdm bezpilotn\u00edm stroj\u016fm\u00a0\u2013 na ukrajinsk\u00e9 stran\u011b u\u017e je pln\u011b rozvinut\u00e1, na rusk\u00e9 je proces o\u00a0hodn\u011b pozadu, ale tak\u00e9 b\u011b\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Je velmi dob\u0159e mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee tato opat\u0159en\u00ed postupn\u011b otup\u00ed hrot \u00fatok\u016f z\u00a0obou stran\u00a0\u2013 ale nebude to hned. I\u00a0proto Zelenskyj \u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 spojence o\u00a0300\u00a0st\u0159el Patriot<\/a> na zimu. Tu\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee s\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed bude op\u011bt t\u011b\u017ek\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Ov\u0161em tentokr\u00e1t to bude v\u00a0je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e ne\u017e kdy p\u0159edt\u00edm platit i\u00a0na rusk\u00e9 stran\u011b fronty\u00a0\u2013 v\u010detn\u011b vzd\u00e1len\u00e9ho rusk\u00e9ho t\u00fdlu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sest\u0159elen\u00ed jedn\u00e9 balistick\u00e9 rakety nad Kyjevem by \u201epodle u\u010debnic\u201c m\u011blo st\u00e1t 14\u00a0a\u017e 21\u00a0milion\u016f dolar\u016f, tedy 300\u00a0a\u017e 450\u00a0milion\u016f korun.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":155876,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[11],"tags":[356,464,23142,2269,5960,7498,9647,39457,54,56,53,52],"class_list":["post-155875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-svet","tag-balisticka-raketa","tag-drony","tag-iskander","tag-krym","tag-protivzdusna-obrana-pvo","tag-raketovy-system-protivzdusne-obrany-raytheon-mim-104-patriot","tag-ropna-rafinerie","tag-strela-3m22-zirkon","tag-svet","tag-valka-rusko-ukrajina","tag-world","tag-world-news"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116968214158281379","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155875","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=155875"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155875\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/155876"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=155875"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=155875"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=155875"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}