{"id":159067,"date":"2026-07-26T15:17:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-26T15:17:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/159067\/"},"modified":"2026-07-26T15:17:13","modified_gmt":"2026-07-26T15:17:13","slug":"v-pacifiku-se-rozviji-super-el-nino-muze-dosahnout-rekordni-sily","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/159067\/","title":{"rendered":"V Pacifiku se rozv\u00edj\u00ed super El Ni\u00f1o. M\u016f\u017ee dos\u00e1hnout rekordn\u00ed s\u00edly"},"content":{"rendered":"

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty mo\u0159sk\u00e9 hladiny dos\u00e1hly ve st\u0159edu ji\u017e pades\u00e1t\u00e9ho rekordn\u011b tepl\u00e9ho dne<\/a> v\u00a0\u0159ad\u011b. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee budou b\u011bhem dal\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f d\u00e1le r\u016fst a\u00a0udr\u017eovat se na rekordn\u00edch nebo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 rekordn\u00edch hodnot\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou je rychle s\u00edl\u00edc\u00ed jev El Ni\u00f1o. Jedn\u00e1 se o\u00a0teplou f\u00e1zi oce\u00e1nsko-atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0\u2013 Ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace (ENSO), kter\u00e1 se vyzna\u010duje nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdmi teplotami mo\u0159sk\u00e9 hladiny v\u00a0tropick\u00e9m Pacifiku.<\/p>\n

V hlavn\u00ed sledovan\u00e9 oblasti Ni\u00f1o 3.4<\/a>\u00a0ve st\u0159edn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti tropick\u00e9ho Pacifiku dosahovaly v\u00a0\u010dervnu odchylky teploty mo\u0159sk\u00e9 hladiny p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b +1,5\u00a0\u00b0C. V\u00a0posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech v\u0161ak do\u0161lo k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edmu v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu a\u00a0v polovin\u011b \u010dervence se teplotn\u00ed anom\u00e1lie trvale dostaly nad hranici +2\u00a0\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Po p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed t\u00e9to hranice je jev klasifikov\u00e1n jako velmi siln\u00fd a\u00a0n\u011bkdy ozna\u010dov\u00e1n jako super El Ni\u00f1o. \u0158ada meteorologick\u00fdch organizac\u00ed dnes pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 tak\u00e9 nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed index RONI, kter\u00fd zohled\u0148uje i\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty ostatn\u00edch rovn\u00edkov\u00fdch oblast\u00ed oce\u00e1nu a\u00a0omezuje tak vliv dlouhodob\u00e9ho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed klimatu. Tak\u00e9 jeho hodnoty se v\u0161ak u\u017e bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed hranici +2\u00a0\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

2026’s developing Super El Ni\u00f1o is neck and neck with 1997 as the strongest El Ni\u00f1o for late July on record, using the relative Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (RONI), which takes into account warming relative to the rest of the ocean. Using the raw Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI), 2026 is blowing\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/U6bemyA7CE<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) July 22, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Super El Ni\u00f1o vede k\u00a0je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm zm\u011bn\u00e1m po\u010das\u00ed po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. Ud\u00e1losti s\u00a0velk\u00fdm dopadem, jako jsou ni\u010div\u00e9 z\u00e1plavy, siln\u00e1 sucha nebo intenzivn\u00ed vlny veder, se mohou vyskytovat \u010dast\u011bji nebo b\u00fdt v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159i b\u011b\u017en\u00e9m El Ni\u00f1u.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dopady se o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00a0zim\u011b<\/p>\n

N\u011bkter\u00e9 projevy u\u017e za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed b\u00fdt patrn\u00e9 b\u011bhem leto\u0161n\u00edho l\u00e9ta, hlavn\u00ed pozornost se v\u0161ak up\u00edr\u00e1 k\u00a0vrcholu jevu, kter\u00fd by m\u011bl nastat na p\u0159elomu podzimu a\u00a0zimy.<\/p>\n

\u0158ada klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f nazna\u010duje, \u017ee hodnoty indexu RONI by mohly p\u0159ekro\u010dit +3\u00a0\u00b0C. Pokud by se tyto p\u0159edpov\u011bdi naplnily, jednalo by se o\u00a0nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed El Ni\u00f1o od za\u010d\u00e1tku m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed v\u00a0roce 1850.<\/p>\n

S potenci\u00e1ln\u011b rekordn\u011b siln\u00fdm super El Ni\u00f1em bychom se mohli ocitnout na dosud neprob\u00e1dan\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed z\u00a0hlediska atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto Sv\u011btov\u00e1 meteorologick\u00e1 organizace (WMO)<\/a> upozor\u0148uje na nutnost p\u0159ipravit se na mo\u017en\u00e9 dopady, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0tropick\u00fdch oblastech.<\/p>\n

Podle port\u00e1lu Severe Weather Europe<\/a> se nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed d\u016fsledky na severn\u00ed polokouli obvykle projevuj\u00ed b\u011bhem zimy, kdy je vliv El Ni\u00f1a nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odezva se rozv\u00edj\u00ed nad Severn\u00ed Amerikou, zat\u00edmco Evropa na tento jev reaguje zpravidla mnohem slab\u011bji.<\/p>\n

Statistiky v\u0161ak ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee zimy v\u00a0Evrop\u011b b\u00fdvaj\u00ed b\u011bhem p\u016fsoben\u00ed El Ni\u00f1a \u010dasto teplej\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e obvykle. Siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o m\u016f\u017ee tak\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161it pravd\u011bpodobnost naru\u0161en\u00ed pol\u00e1rn\u00edho v\u00edru v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu zimy. To m\u016f\u017ee n\u00e1sledn\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bt k\u00a0\u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdkyv\u016fm po\u010das\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b propad\u016f studen\u00e9ho vzduchu ve st\u0159edn\u00edch zem\u011bpisn\u00fdch \u0161\u00ed\u0159k\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

<\/a>El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0\u2013 Ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace (ENSO)<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0\u2013 Ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace (ENSO) je nepravideln\u00fd periodick\u00fd jev ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed oblasti tropick\u00e9ho Pacifiku, p\u0159i kter\u00e9m doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke zm\u011bn\u011b povrchov\u00fdch teplot mo\u0159e a\u00a0naru\u0161en\u00ed Walkerovy cirkulace, b\u011bhem n\u00ed\u017e m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt k\u00a0oslaben\u00ed, nebo dokonce obr\u00e1cen\u00ed pas\u00e1t\u016f. To m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt v\u00fdznamn\u00fd vliv nejen na region\u00e1ln\u00ed, ale i\u00a0na celosv\u011btov\u00e9 klima. F\u00e1zi ENSO ur\u010dujeme podle teplotn\u00edch anom\u00e1li\u00ed (teplej\u0161\u00ed nebo chladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed) v\u00a0oblasti mezi 120\u00b0 a\u00a0180\u00b0 z\u00e1padn\u00ed d\u00e9lky. <\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o je tepl\u00e1 f\u00e1ze ENSO, kter\u00e1 nast\u00e1v\u00e1, kdy\u017e se povrchov\u00e9 vody v\u00a0Tich\u00e9m oce\u00e1nu u\u00a0rovn\u00edku v\u00fdznamn\u011b oh\u0159ej\u00ed. Nav\u00edc rovn\u00edkov\u00e9 v\u011btry tla\u010d\u00ed teplou vodu sm\u011brem na v\u00fdchod, tedy opa\u010dn\u00fdm sm\u011brem ne\u017e obvykle. Tento jev naru\u0161uje b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 vzory atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dopady na po\u010das\u00ed. B\u011bhem El Ni\u00f1a doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0siln\u00fdm sr\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1m v\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch oblastech (nap\u0159. Ji\u017en\u00ed Amerika) a\u00a0suchu v\u00a0jin\u00fdch (nap\u0159. Austr\u00e1lie a\u00a0jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie). Jev se objevuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b ka\u017ed\u00fdch 2\u20137\u00a0let.<\/p>\n

La Ni\u00f1a je studen\u00e1 f\u00e1ze ENSO, kter\u00e1 je opakem El Ni\u00f1a. Doch\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159i n\u00ed k\u00a0ochlazen\u00ed povrchov\u00fdch vod v\u00a0rovn\u00edkov\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu a\u00a0rovn\u00edkov\u00e9 v\u011btry tla\u010d\u00ed teplou vodu naopak siln\u011bji sm\u011brem na z\u00e1pad. Tento jev posiluje b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 vzory atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace, co\u017e tak\u00e9 vede ke glob\u00e1ln\u00edm dopad\u016fm na po\u010das\u00ed. La Ni\u00f1a zp\u016fsobuje sucho v\u00a0Ji\u017en\u00ed Americe, zat\u00edmco v\u00a0Austr\u00e1lii, jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch oblastech p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed intenzivn\u00ed de\u0161t\u011b a\u00a0z\u00e1plavy.<\/p>\n