{"id":160474,"date":"2026-07-28T05:09:14","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T05:09:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/160474\/"},"modified":"2026-07-28T05:09:14","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T05:09:14","slug":"el-nino-teprve-zacina-ale-oceany-uz-vrou-planeta-miri-k-rekordni-anomalii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/160474\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o teprve za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1, ale oce\u00e1ny u\u017e v\u0159ou. Planeta m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed k\u00a0rekordn\u00ed anom\u00e1lii"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"e_bX\">\u201eV\u011bt\u0161inou se o\u00a0klimatick\u00fdch datech vyjad\u0159uji pom\u011brn\u011b zdr\u017eenliv\u011b, tak\u017ee v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech jsem jen jednou \u0159ekl, \u017ee jsem doopravdy v\u00a0\u0161oku. Stalo se to, kdy\u017e z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota v\u00a0roce 2023\u00a0p\u0159ev\u00fd\u0161ila ve\u0161ker\u00e9 p\u0159edchoz\u00ed z\u00e1znamy o\u00a0cel\u00fdch 0,5\u00a0\u00b0C. Te\u010f jsem ale v\u00a0\u0161oku podruh\u00e9,\u201c napsal na \u00favod sv\u00e9ho <a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theclimatebrink.com\/p\/the-strongest-el-nino-ever\" class=\"e_n\">hodnocen\u00ed<\/a> \u010dervencov\u00e9 sady p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed v\u00fdvoje tzv. ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace vlivn\u00fd klimatolog <a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/thebreakthrough.org\/people\/zeke-hausfather\" class=\"e_n\">Zeke Hausfather<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">D\u016fvod pro tak siln\u00e1 slova je prost\u00fd\u00a0\u2013 dokonce u\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina model\u016f odhaduj\u00edc\u00edch budouc\u00ed s\u00edlu jevu El Ni\u00f1o ukazuje, \u017ee tento tepl\u00fd atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fd a\u00a0oce\u00e1nsk\u00fd jev letos na podzim v\u00fdznamn\u011b p\u0159es\u00e1hne cokoli, co se odehr\u00e1lo ve zn\u00e1m\u00e9 historii.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b jde po\u0159\u00e1d \u201ejen\u201c o\u00a0modely, tak\u017ee nem\u016f\u017eeme mluvit o\u00a0\u00fapln\u00e9 jistot\u011b. Jejich shoda na rekordn\u00edm v\u00fdsledku je z\u00e1rove\u0148 na jednu stranu neoby\u010dejn\u011b robustn\u00ed, co\u017e by m\u011blo znamenat, \u017ee pravd\u011bpodobnost jejich napln\u011bn\u00ed je vysok\u00e1\u00a0\u2013 ov\u0161em kv\u016fli v\u00fdjime\u010dnosti p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00e9ho v\u00fdsledku se jim chce zkr\u00e1tka v\u011b\u0159it o\u00a0n\u011bco m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch okolnost\u00ed. <\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Nejde p\u0159itom o\u00a0to, \u017ee by v\u00a0modelech n\u011bkdo tu\u0161il n\u011bjakou konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed chybu. Podle Hausfathera je zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 opatrnost dan\u00e1 jednodu\u0161e t\u00edm, \u017ee p\u0159edpov\u011bdi nic podobn\u00e9ho je\u0161t\u011b nikdy v\u00a0minulosti neukazovaly, tak\u017ee nem\u00e1me historickou zku\u0161enost s\u00a0jejich p\u0159esnost\u00ed p\u0159i\u00a0takto extr\u00e9mn\u00edch hodnot\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak o\u00a0modelech obecn\u011b v\u00edme, \u017ee v\u00a0l\u00e9t\u011b u\u017e podzimn\u00ed d\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed dob\u0159e a\u00a0nav\u00edc vedle nich u\u017e m\u016f\u017eeme sledovat i\u00a0dramatick\u00e9 re\u00e1ln\u00e9 d\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0Pacifiku\u00a0\u2013 voda v\u00a0kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 oblasti oce\u00e1nu ozna\u010dovan\u00e9 jako 3.4 (podle anom\u00e1lie teploty v\u00a0t\u00e9to oblasti se m\u011b\u0159\u00ed s\u00edla El Ni\u00f1a) se u\u017e te\u010f otepluje neoby\u010dejn\u011b rychle.<\/p>\n<p>Co jsou El Ni\u00f1o, La Ni\u00f1a a\u00a0ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace?Nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm projevem jevu <a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.seznamzpravy.cz\/tag\/el-nino-84593\" class=\"e_n\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> je oteplen\u00ed vody ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti tropick\u00e9ho Pacifiku o n\u011bkolik stup\u0148\u016f. La Ni\u00f1a je opa\u010dnou f\u00e1z\u00ed a stejnou oblast ochlazuje. Hlavn\u00ed hnac\u00ed silou obou f\u00e1z\u00ed jsou zm\u011bny ve v\u011btrech foukaj\u00edc\u00edch od v\u00fdchodu na z\u00e1pad, kter\u00fdm se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 pas\u00e1ty. Pokud jsou slab\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e norm\u00e1ln\u011b, jde o El Ni\u00f1o, pokud siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, nastane La Ni\u00f1a.Ozna\u010den\u00ed jev\u016f poch\u00e1z\u00ed ze \u0161pan\u011bl\u0161tiny. El Ni\u00f1o znamen\u00e1 chlape\u010dek a La Ni\u00f1a hol\u010di\u010dka. M\u00e1 poch\u00e1zet z Peru, kde si jev\u016f ryb\u00e1\u0159i v\u0161\u00edmali u\u017e p\u0159ed stovkami let. Podrobn\u011b mechanismus rozeb\u00edr\u00e1 n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek:<a data-dot=\"mol-article-card-media\" aria-hidden=\"true\" tabindex=\"-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.seznamzpravy.cz\/clanek\/zahranicni-v-pacifiku-se-po-letech-obratily-karty-svetu-to-prinese-jeste-vetsi-teplo-227934\" class=\"e_n f_l5\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"891\"   width=\"1585\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/el-nino-la-nina-pacifik.jpeg\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"sync\" class=\"e_aa e_Z\"\/><\/a>Modely ukazuj\u00ed rekord. Dokonce \u201eo parn\u00edk\u201c<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">P\u0159ejd\u011bme ale k\u00a0j\u00e1dru v\u011bci. Jak u\u017e bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno, modely se bezprecedentn\u00ed m\u011brou shoduj\u00ed na dosud nev\u00eddan\u00e9 s\u00edle El Ni\u00f1a. Ale o\u00a0jak\u00e9 p\u0159esn\u011b mohutn\u00e9 s\u00edle se bav\u00edme?<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Na ot\u00e1zku lze odpov\u00eddat dv\u011bma zp\u016fsoby. Ten nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed s\u00edlu El Ni\u00f1a vy\u010d\u00edsluje podle toho, o\u00a0kolik se voda ve sledovan\u00e9m regionu Pacifiku otepl\u00ed ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se zbytkem tropick\u00fdch vod a\u00a0ozna\u010duje se zkratkou RONI. Star\u0161\u00ed zp\u016fsob zase El Ni\u00f1o pom\u011b\u0159uje podle toho,\u00a0jak velkou teplotn\u00ed anom\u00e1lii v\u00a0tomto m\u00edst\u011b vytvo\u0159\u00ed ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0jeho pr\u016fm\u011brnou teplotou za posledn\u00edch 30\u00a0let a\u00a0ozna\u010duje se ONI.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Za\u010dn\u011bme u\u00a0nov\u00e9ho (RONI). Evropsk\u00e9 centrum pro st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed (ECMWF) tuto relativn\u00ed anom\u00e1lii v\u00a0Pacifiku odhaduje n\u00e1sledovn\u011b:<\/p>\n<p><img height=\"732\"   width=\"854\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/el-nino.png\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"sync\" class=\"e_aa e_Z\"\/>Foto: ECMWF<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">\u010cervencov\u00e1 RONI p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f ECMWF.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Jak m\u016f\u017eete vid\u011bt, ECMWF nevyd\u00e1v\u00e1 jednu st\u0159edovou hodnotu, ale ukazuje rovnou v\u00fdsledek v\u0161ech tzv. ans\u00e1mbl\u016f, neboli r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u201eb\u011bh\u016f\u201c jednoho modelu. V\u011bt\u0161ina z\u00a0nich p\u0159itom p\u0159esahuje anom\u00e1lii 3\u00a0\u00b0C koncem roku. <\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">A\u00a0to je extr\u00e9m. Dosud nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed El Ni\u00f1o ve zn\u00e1m\u00e9 historii dle tohoto indexu toti\u017e podle Hausfathera nastalo v\u00a0letech 1982-1983\u00a0a\u00a0dos\u00e1hlo anom\u00e1lie 2,69\u00a0\u00b0C.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Dal\u0161\u00ed ost\u0159e sledovanou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f <a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/lanina\/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf\" class=\"e_n\">vyd\u00e1v\u00e1<\/a> Americk\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad pro oce\u00e1n a\u00a0atmosf\u00e9ru (NOAA), kter\u00fd nicm\u00e9n\u011b ukazuje jen pravd\u011bpodobnosti, s\u00a0jakou jev dos\u00e1hne jednotliv\u00fdch kategori\u00ed, a\u00a0nikoliv konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch hodnot anom\u00e1lie. V\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli NOAA p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho stupn\u011b (nad 2\u00a0\u00b0C RONI) dos\u00e1hne El Ni\u00f1o s\u00a0asi 80% pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed. <\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">T\u00e9to hranici se nicm\u00e9n\u011b odchylka bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed u\u017e te\u010f, a\u00a0to jsou p\u0159ed n\u00e1mi je\u0161t\u011b m\u011bs\u00edce dal\u0161\u00edho s\u00edlen\u00ed (typicky vrchol p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed a\u017e koncem roku).<\/p>\n<p><img height=\"896\"   width=\"1378\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1785215352_115_el-nino.png\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"sync\" class=\"e_aa e_Z\"\/>Foto: Alex Boreham\/cyclonicwx.com<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj podle RONI.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Model\u016f je nicm\u00e9n\u011b mnohem v\u00edc. Hausfather jich zanalyzoval celkem 14 (\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed 667\u00a0ans\u00e1mbl\u016f) a\u00a0v\u00fdsledn\u00fd v\u00e1\u017een\u00fd medi\u00e1n mu vy\u0161el na anom\u00e1lii 3,1\u00a0\u00b0C. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee celkov\u011b se modely robustn\u011b shoduj\u00ed na tom, \u017ee p\u0159ede\u0161l\u00fd rekord bude p\u0159ekon\u00e1n o\u00a0cel\u00fdch n\u011bkolik desetin stupn\u011b, co\u017e se sice laick\u00fdm pohledem m\u016f\u017ee zd\u00e1t jako m\u00e1lo, ale ve skute\u010dnosti je to p\u0159esn\u011b naopak.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edc to nav\u00edc plat\u00ed u\u00a0druh\u00e9ho zp\u016fsobu (ONI). P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f ECMWF pro n\u011bj ukazuje v\u011bt\u0161inu ans\u00e1mbl\u016f vysoko nad anom\u00e1lii 3\u00a0\u00b0C:<\/p>\n<p><img height=\"717\"   width=\"923\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1785215353_407_el-nino.png\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"sync\" class=\"e_aa e_Z\"\/>Foto: ECMWF<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">\u010cervencov\u00e1 ONI p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f ECMWF.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Hausfather\u016fv v\u00e1\u017een\u00fd medi\u00e1n ze 14\u00a0model\u016f vych\u00e1z\u00ed na 3,6\u00a0\u00b0C. Dosud nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm El Ni\u00f1em podle tohoto m\u011b\u0159\u00edtka je p\u0159itom bu\u010f sezona 2015\/2016,\u00a0nebo 1877\/1878, kter\u00e9 ob\u011b dos\u00e1hly n\u011bco p\u0159es 2,7\u00a0\u00b0C (z 19.\u00a0stolet\u00ed jde o\u00a0odhad z\u00a0ne\u00fapln\u00fdch dat, tak\u017ee je tam vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed nejistota). Tady u\u017e je tedy nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 o\u00a0obrovsk\u00fdch 0,8\u00a0\u00b0C vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159edchoz\u00ed rekordy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">\u201eEl Ni\u00f1o bude s\u00a0velkou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed nejen nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm od za\u010d\u00e1tku spolehliv\u00fdch z\u00e1znam\u016f\u00a0\u2013 m\u016f\u017ee se st\u00e1t, \u017ee bude nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed s\u00a0ohromuj\u00edc\u00edm rozd\u00edlem,\u201c napsal k\u00a0tomu Hausfather a\u00a0dodal, \u017ee rozd\u00edl mezi nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a\u00a0p\u00e1t\u00fdm nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm El Ni\u00f1em za posledn\u00edch 150\u00a0let je 0,5\u00a0\u00b0C.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Dodejme, \u017ee d\u016fvodem v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho rozd\u00edlu u\u00a0ONI ne\u017e u\u00a0RONI je klimatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna. Star\u0161\u00ed zp\u016fsob toti\u017e jej\u00ed vliv sice tak\u00e9 odfiltrov\u00e1v\u00e1, ale jen \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b, proto\u017ee i\u00a0b\u011bhem 30\u00a0let se planeta u\u017e dost oteplila a\u00a0m\u00e1 to samoz\u0159ejm\u011b n\u011bjak\u00fd vliv i\u00a0na dan\u00fd region. RONI tento vliv filtruje \u00fapln\u011b a\u00a0ukazuje s\u00edlu El Ni\u00f1a samu o\u00a0sob\u011b.<\/p>\n<p>Co hroz\u00ed lidem?<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Pro\u010d se ale o\u00a0tom vlastn\u011b bav\u00edme? <\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno jde o\u00a0to, \u017ee El Ni\u00f1o m\u00e1 celou \u0159adu dopad\u016f na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed a\u00a0velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st z\u00a0nich je pro lidi negativn\u00ed. Hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem je, \u017ee El Ni\u00f1o zvy\u0161uje pravd\u011bpodobnost v\u00fdskytu i\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed intenzity cel\u00e9 \u0159ady typ\u016f p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edch katastrof v\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdch koutech sv\u011bta.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">\u010c\u00edm siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159itom je, t\u00edm v\u00edc tuto pravd\u011bpodobnost zvy\u0161uje, i\u00a0kdy\u017e v\u017edy z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed i\u00a0na n\u00e1hodn\u00e9m rozpolo\u017een\u00ed a\u00a0tak\u00e9 p\u0159ipravenosti dot\u010den\u00fdch populac\u00ed, tak\u017ee se ned\u00e1 \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed El Ni\u00f1o mus\u00ed v\u017edy zaru\u010den\u011b znamenat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161kody.<\/p>\n<p><a data-dot=\"mol-article-card-media\" aria-hidden=\"true\" tabindex=\"-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.seznamzpravy.cz\/clanek\/zahranicni-asie-se-chysta-na-el-nino-extremni-jev-muze-vyvolat-humanitarni-krizi-308181\" class=\"e_n f_l5\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img height=\"2304\"   width=\"4096\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1785215353_19_pole-indonesie-el-nino.jpeg\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"sync\" class=\"e_aa e_Z\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Detailn\u00ed popis v\u0161ech mo\u017en\u00fdch dopad\u016f a\u00a0jejich p\u0159\u00edklady z\u00a0minulosti jsme nab\u00eddli u\u017e v\u00a0<a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.seznamzpravy.cz\/clanek\/zahranicni-obavy-se-potvrdily-zacina-el-nino-muze-byt-extremni-a-hrozi-prival-katastrof-307511\" class=\"e_n\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">tomto<\/a> star\u0161\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku. Ve zkratce \u0159e\u010deno jde nej\u010dast\u011bji o\u00a0p\u0159\u00edvalov\u00e9 de\u0161t\u011b a\u00a0povodn\u011b a\u00a0naopak siln\u00e1 sucha v\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdch koutech sv\u011bta, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v\u011bt\u0161inou se jedn\u00e1 o\u00a0ji\u017en\u00ed polokouli nebo p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b Asii (na Evropu El Ni\u00f1o nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd zn\u00e1m\u00fd v\u00fdrazn\u00fd dopad).<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">V letech 1877\/1878\u00a0extr\u00e9mn\u011b siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o p\u0159isp\u011blo k\u00a0historick\u00e9mu suchu a\u00a0hladomor\u016fm, p\u0159i nich\u017e zem\u0159elo z\u0159ejm\u011b a\u017e 50\u00a0milion\u016f lid\u00ed, zat\u00edmco v\u00a0modern\u00ed dob\u011b se ztr\u00e1ty na \u017eivotech odhaduj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161 v\u00a0tis\u00edc\u00edch a\u017e n\u00edzk\u00fdch des\u00edtk\u00e1ch tis\u00edc. Dlouhodob\u00e9 materi\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161kody v\u0161ak jdou do jednotek bilion\u016f dolar\u016f, co\u017e odpov\u00edd\u00e1 ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm jednotk\u00e1m procent glob\u00e1ln\u00edho HDP.<\/p>\n<p>Tepl\u00e9 nen\u00ed jen El Ni\u00f1o, ale cel\u00e1 planeta<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Poj\u010fme se ale je\u0161t\u011b na chv\u00edli zastavit u\u00a0klimatick\u00fdch statistik. Klimatologov\u00e9 v\u00fdvoj El Ni\u00f1a sleduj\u00ed i\u00a0kv\u016fli tomu, \u017ee jde o\u00a0dostate\u010dn\u011b siln\u00fd jev na to, aby zah\u00fdbal celou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brnou ro\u010dn\u00ed teplotou.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dopad El Ni\u00f1a na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teplotu vzduchu p\u0159itom v\u017edy p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed a\u017e s\u00a0n\u011bkolikam\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee vysokou \u0161anci poko\u0159it rekordn\u00ed teplotu roku 2024\u00a0by m\u011bl m\u00edt a\u017e rok 2027.\u00a0Je ale mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee rekord padne u\u017e letos, proto\u017ee El Ni\u00f1o zaprv\u00e9 nastupuje rychle a\u00a0zadruh\u00e9 p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed u\u017e do hodn\u011b oh\u0159\u00e1t\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Je to vid\u011bt t\u0159eba i\u00a0na indexu ONI, kter\u00fd moment\u00e1ln\u011b ukazuje zcela bezprecedentn\u00ed oh\u0159\u00e1t\u00ed regionu 3.4\u00a0pro danou \u010d\u00e1st roku:<\/p>\n<p><img height=\"467\"   width=\"723\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1785215354_453_el-nino.png\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"sync\" class=\"e_aa e_Z\"\/>Foto: Alex Boreham\/cyclonicwx.com<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Alex Boreham\/cyclonicwx.com.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Nejteplej\u0161\u00ed pro danou \u010d\u00e1st roku jsou ale u\u017e od \u010dervna i\u00a0ve\u0161ker\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 oce\u00e1ny:<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">A krat\u0161\u00ed dobu to plat\u00ed dokonce i\u00a0o glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 denn\u00ed teplot\u011b vzduchu:<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">\u201eKv\u016fli rapidn\u011b se rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edmu a\u00a0siln\u00e9mu El Ni\u00f1u se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty vzduchu a\u00a0povrchu mo\u0159e dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed do nov\u00fdch rekordn\u00edch hodnot. Typicky to je tak, \u017ee rekordn\u00edm rokem se st\u00e1v\u00e1 a\u017e ten po El Ni\u00f1u, ale tentokr\u00e1t je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee se to stane u\u017e letos,\u201c <a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MichaelEMann\/status\/2079929071186628740\" class=\"e_n\">napsal<\/a> k\u00a0tomu slavn\u00fd americk\u00fd klimatolog Michael Mann.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Hausfather odhaduje, \u017ee rok 2027\u00a0bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejteplej\u0161\u00edm s\u00a0velk\u00fdm rozd\u00edlem, nicm\u00e9n\u011b podle jeho <a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/dashboard.theclimatebrink.com\/#global\" class=\"e_n\">kalkulace<\/a> existuje 26% \u0161ance, \u017ee rok 2024\u00a0p\u0159ekon\u00e1 u\u017e leto\u0161ek.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">Dal\u0161\u00ed vlivn\u00fd klimatolog <a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/cs.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/James_Hansen\" class=\"e_n\">James Hansen<\/a> je dokonce p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00fd, \u017ee rekord padne u\u017e letos a\u00a0v \u010derstv\u00e9 <a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/jimehansen.substack.com\/p\/beware-media-hype-its-not-the-el\" class=\"e_n\">anal\u00fdze<\/a> argumentuje, \u017ee aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u011bn\u00ed nen\u00ed d\u016fsledkem v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u011b rapidn\u00edho El Ni\u00f1a, ale rychlej\u0161\u00edho tempa oteplen\u00ed klimatu zp\u016fsoben\u00e9ho oslaben\u00edm reflektivn\u00ed funkce obla\u010dnosti v\u00a0d\u016fsledku men\u0161\u00edch lidsk\u00fdch emis\u00ed aerosol\u016f. To je zat\u00edm nicm\u00e9n\u011b sp\u00ed\u0161 okrajov\u00e1 hypot\u00e9za, na jej\u00ed\u017e rozbor v\u00a0tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku u\u017e nezb\u00fdv\u00e1 prostor (naj\u00edt ho v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017eete <a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.seznamzpravy.cz\/clanek\/zahranicni-planeta-se-zrejme-zacala-oteplovat-o-dost-rychleji-vedci-resi-co-to-znamena-302577\" class=\"e_n\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">zde<\/a>). <\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bX\">V\u0161ichni se nicm\u00e9n\u011b shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee zbytek roku 2026\u00a0a\u00a0hlavn\u011b rok 2027\u00a0budou velmi tepl\u00e9, a\u00a0\u017ee se v\u00a0tomto obdob\u00ed do\u010dk\u00e1me dal\u0161\u00edho ro\u010dn\u00edho rekordu. Mimochodem posledn\u00edch 11\u00a0let <a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/news\/media-centre\/wmo-confirms-2025-was-one-of-warmest-years-record\" class=\"e_n\">je<\/a> p\u0159itom z\u00e1rove\u0148 11\u00a0historicky nejteplej\u0161\u00edch.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201eV\u011bt\u0161inou se o\u00a0klimatick\u00fdch datech vyjad\u0159uji pom\u011brn\u011b zdr\u017eenliv\u011b, tak\u017ee v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech jsem jen jednou \u0159ekl, \u017ee jsem doopravdy v\u00a0\u0161oku.&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":160475,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[11],"tags":[9267,1507,7121,2994,54,53,52],"class_list":["post-160474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-svet","tag-el-nino","tag-klimaticke-zmeny","tag-ocean","tag-planeta-a-klima","tag-svet","tag-world","tag-world-news"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116995881143832293","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160474","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=160474"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160474\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/160475"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=160474"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=160474"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=160474"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}