{"id":160600,"date":"2026-07-28T07:55:14","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T07:55:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/160600\/"},"modified":"2026-07-28T07:55:14","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T07:55:14","slug":"proc-klesaji-ceny-ropy-a-nahradni-ropne-trasy-saudu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/160600\/","title":{"rendered":"Pro\u010d klesaj\u00ed ceny ropy a\u00a0n\u00e1hradn\u00ed ropn\u00e9 trasy Sa\u00fad\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prudk\u00fd r\u016fst cen ropy a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch energi\u00ed pochopiteln\u011b reagoval v\u00a0minul\u00fdch dvou t\u00fddnech na obnovenou eskalaci v\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsko-americk\u00e9m konfliktu. Dokonce se v\u00a0t\u00e9to souvislosti za\u010dalo mluvit o\u00a0tom, \u017ee by americk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka (Fed) mohla v\u00a0reakci na eskalaci a\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny pohonn\u00fdch hmot tento t\u00fdden zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry.<\/p>\n

O v\u00edkendu ale zbran\u011b utichly a\u00a0ceny ropy za\u010daly prudce padat dol\u016f. Kdo si ale mysl\u00ed, \u017ee trhy v\u011b\u0159\u00ed tomu, \u017ee by tentokr\u00e1t mohla m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u016f s\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nci p\u0159in\u00e9st n\u011bjak\u00e9 ovoce, ten se mo\u017en\u00e1 m\u00fdl\u00ed. Nejen John Authers na serveru Bloomber je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den<\/a> o\u00a0tom, \u017ee trhy reaguj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na medi\u00e1ln\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy o\u00a0tom, \u017ee Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 u\u017e prost\u011b nemaj\u00ed na \u00cdr\u00e1n moc \u010d\u00edm st\u0159\u00edlet a\u00a0doch\u00e1zej\u00ed jim z\u00e1soby konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed a\u00a0pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 munice. Ot\u00e1zka je, kdo z\u00a0Trumpovy administrativy (a pro\u010d) se rozhodl novin\u00e1\u0159e z\u00a0NYT takto podrobn\u011b br\u00edfovat, ale bere se to velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u011b<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek<\/a> zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho serveru z\u00a0pera Davida Ficklinga upozor\u0148uje, jak obrovsk\u00fd kolaps \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho stavebnictv\u00ed sni\u017euje pro cel\u00fd sv\u011bt dopady Hormuzsk\u00e9 krize, kter\u00e9 by jinak byly mnohem drasti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Podle autora \u010c\u00edna vyrobila v\u00a0\u010dervnu pouze 12,9\u00a0milionu metr\u016f krychlov\u00fdch nafty. Krom\u011b n\u011bkolika kr\u00e1tk\u00fdch a\u00a0ostr\u00fdch propad\u016f b\u011bhem covidov\u00e9 pandemie je to nejm\u00e9n\u011b od roku 2012.<\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd ropn\u00fd produkt nen\u00ed tak siln\u011b propojen se stavebnictv\u00edm, jako jsou asfalt a\u00a0nafta. Asfalt se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 na cesty k\u00a0nov\u00fdm stavb\u00e1m a\u00a0coby izola\u010dn\u00ed materi\u00e1l, zejm\u00e9na na st\u0159echy. Nafta zase poh\u00e1n\u00ed flotily m\u00edcha\u010dek, stavebn\u00edch stroj\u016f, je\u0159\u00e1b\u016f a\u00a0n\u00e1kladn\u00edch aut. Benzin poh\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm osobn\u00ed auta, motorky a\u00a0sk\u00fatry.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd stavebn\u00ed kolaps nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd historick\u00fd precedent. Museli bychom j\u00edt a\u017e do roku 2002\u00a0kdy byl objem zapo\u010dat\u00fdch staveb dom\u016f ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e letos. Po cel\u00e9 zemi najdeme des\u00edtky tis\u00edc opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch staveb. Nafta se oby\u010dejn\u011b ve stavebnictv\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 velmi intenzivn\u011b. M\u00edcha\u010dky a\u00a0bagry lij\u00ed beton a\u00a0hloub\u00ed z\u00e1klady. Letos bylo p\u0159id\u00e1no pouze 131\u00a0milionu \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch metr\u016f byt\u016f, sotva \u0161estina toho, co p\u0159ed p\u011bti lety.<\/p>\n

S\u00a0t\u00edm, jak cena ropy v\u00a0d\u016fsledku Hormuzu vzrostla, bylo nav\u00edc mnoho staveb, kter\u00e9 by t\u011b\u017eko byly ziskov\u00e9 i\u00a0bez vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cen nafty, pozastaveno. \u010c\u00edna tak\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 st\u00e1le v\u00edce n\u00e1kladn\u00edch aut na baterie. V\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b m\u00edrn\u011b kles\u00e1 i\u00a0spot\u0159eba benzinu, ale pokles spot\u0159eby nafty je \u0159\u00e1dov\u011b dramati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Kdyby se Hormuz znovu otev\u0159el, spot\u0159eba nafty se zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed. Nejv\u00edce se j\u00ed spot\u0159ebuje v\u00a0n\u00e1kladn\u00ed doprav\u011b, v\u00a0d\u016fln\u00ed t\u011b\u017eb\u011b a\u00a0v zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed. Stavebnictv\u00ed j\u00ed moment\u00e1ln\u011b spot\u0159ebov\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u011btinu. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da ale c\u00edl\u00ed na to, aby n\u00e1kladn\u00ed auta na baterie m\u011bla v\u00a0roce 2030\u00a0u\u017e 40\u00a0procent trhu.<\/p>\n

A Bloomberg dnes do t\u0159etice. Javier Blas m\u00e1 dobrou anal\u00fdzu<\/a> o\u00a0tom, jak\u00e9 \u0161ance m\u00e1 sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 ropa dostat se na sv\u011btov\u00fd trh, bude-li Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv d\u00e1le zav\u0159en\u00fd. Odpov\u011b\u010f zn\u00ed, \u017ee mo\u017enosti tu jsou, ale nebude to ani snadn\u00e9, ani lacin\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Na po\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky s\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem zachr\u00e1nil glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku zapomenut\u00fd ropovod V\u00fdchod-Z\u00e1pad, kter\u00fd vede z\u00a0Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu p\u0159es sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed do Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e. Odtud se tankery dost\u00e1valy kolem africk\u00e9ho rohu a\u00a0pr\u016flivu\u00a0B\u00e1b-al-Mandab\u00a0do Asie. Nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 vyhro\u017euj\u00ed zav\u0159en\u00edm tohoto pr\u016flivu\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0u\u017e za\u00fato\u010dili na dva sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 tankery\u00a0\u2013, bude t\u0159eba za\u0159\u00eddit dal\u0161\u00ed obchvaty rizikov\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed. Bude to vy\u017eadovat dva ropovody, flotily nov\u00fdch tanker\u016f men\u0161\u00ed velikosti, p\u0159e\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, velk\u00e9 investice a\u00a0slo\u017eitou diplomacii.<\/p>\n

Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 nyn\u00ed vyv\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed naprostou v\u011bt\u0161inu ropy skrze Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e. M\u00edsto aby ji pos\u00edlali Rud\u00fdm mo\u0159em na jih, budou ji muset pos\u00edlat Rud\u00fdm mo\u0159em na sever, aby se t\u0159emi mo\u017en\u00fdmi cestami dostala do St\u0159edozemn\u00edho mo\u0159e. Vodn\u00ed cestou to p\u016fjde jen omezen\u011b. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed tankery (VLCC), schopn\u00e9 pojmout a\u017e dva miliony barel\u016f ropy, se nevejdou do Suezsk\u00e9ho kan\u00e1lu. Ropa by se musela p\u0159e\u010derp\u00e1vat do men\u0161\u00edch tanker\u016f nebo by velk\u00e9 tankery musely b\u00fdt nalo\u017een\u00e9 jen p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b z\u00a0poloviny.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enosti jsou dv\u011b: Nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed kapacity a\u00a0renovace 50\u00a0let star\u00e9ho ropovodu Sumed, kter\u00fd spojuje Ain Soukhnu, egyptsk\u00e9 m\u011bsto na severu Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, s\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00ed metropol\u00ed Alexandrie. Anebo je tu ropovod Ejlat\u2013A\u0161kelon, kter\u00fd tak\u00e9 spojuje Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e se St\u0159edozemn\u00edm mo\u0159em, a\u00a0sice p\u0159es \u00fazem\u00ed Izraele. Tento paradoxn\u011b vznikl v\u00a060.\u00a0letech jako spole\u010dn\u00fd izraelsko-\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd projekt. V\u00a0dob\u011b ropn\u00e9 krize 1973\/74\u00a0na t\u00e9to dopravn\u00ed cest\u011b vyd\u011blal leckdo hodn\u011b pen\u011bz\u00a0\u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad obchodn\u00edk s\u00a0komoditami Marc Rich. Po \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 revoluci v\u00a0roce 1979\u00a0Izraelci \u00cdr\u00e1nce ze spole\u010dn\u00e9ho projektu vykopli. Rozjedou nyn\u00ed Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 spole\u010dn\u00fd projekt s\u00a0Izraelem, kdy\u017e Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie neuzn\u00e1v\u00e1 \u017eidovsk\u00fd st\u00e1t? D\u0159\u00edve nemysliteln\u00e9 je nyn\u00ed p\u0159edstaviteln\u00e9. Zd\u00e1 se v\u00e1m p\u0159edstaviteln\u00e9, \u017ee ob\u0159\u00ed asijsk\u00e9 tankery budou plout do Asie St\u0159edozemn\u00edm mo\u0159em, kolem Gibraltaru a\u00a0cel\u00e9 Afriky? I\u00a0tato d\u0159\u00edve nemysliteln\u00e1 cesta bude mo\u017en\u00e1 brzy realitou.<\/p>\n

Autor je prezidentem think tanku Strategeo<\/a>, p\u016fsob\u00ed jako visiting fellow spole\u010dnosti Globsec a\u00a0je \u010dlenem sboru extern\u00edch poradc\u016f prezidenta Petra Pavla pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Prudk\u00fd r\u016fst cen ropy a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch energi\u00ed pochopiteln\u011b reagoval v\u00a0minul\u00fdch dvou t\u00fddnech na obnovenou eskalaci v\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsko-americk\u00e9m konfliktu. Dokonce se…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":160601,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[926,4495,67,68,202,708,12118,6387,808,638,138,10105,1016,6131,205,2261,6610,3837,9487,1643,1908,204],"class_list":["post-160600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-afrika","tag-blizky-vychod","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-cina","tag-ekonomika","tag-fed-federalni-rezervni-system","tag-hormuzsky-pruliv","tag-iran","tag-izrael","tag-komentare","tag-lodni-doprava","tag-nazor","tag-persky-zaliv","tag-ropa","tag-ropovody","tag-saudska-arabie","tag-stavebnictvi","tag-stredozemni-more","tag-suezsky-pruplav","tag-tanker","tag-zahranici"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116996533554573930","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=160600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160600\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/160601"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=160600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=160600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=160600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}