{"id":162241,"date":"2026-07-29T16:50:33","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T16:50:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/162241\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T16:50:33","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T16:50:33","slug":"analyza-iranske-vedeni-neni-jednotne-o-vliv-bojuji-tri-frakce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/162241\/","title":{"rendered":"ANAL\u00ddZA: \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed nen\u00ed jednotn\u00e9. O\u00a0vliv bojuj\u00ed t\u0159i frakce"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli hraj\u00ed nyn\u00ed v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 revolu\u010dn\u00ed gardy a\u00a0jejich velitel gener\u00e1lmajor Ahmad Vah\u00edd\u00ed. Potvrdil to u\u017e poh\u0159eb ajatoll\u00e1ha Al\u00edho Chamene\u00edho, kdy v\u00a0prvn\u00edch \u0159ad\u00e1ch byli p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edci gard a\u00a0ne civilist\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Tato nejvlivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed skupina je ochotn\u00e1 jednat se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty, ale odm\u00edt\u00e1 konec v\u00e1lky bez toho, aby \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u011bl plnou kontrolu nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem, za jeho\u017e proplut\u00ed by mohl\u00a0vyb\u00edrat n\u011bjak\u00fd druh m\u00fdta.<\/p>\n

Vah\u00edd\u00edho skupina umo\u017enila na konci \u010dervna podepsat s\u00a0USA v\u00e1gn\u00ed Memorandum o\u00a0porozum\u011bn\u00ed. P\u0159ineslo klid zbran\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se b\u011bhem dvou m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f m\u011bly vy\u0159e\u0161it kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 probl\u00e9my, aby se mohla podepsat m\u00edrov\u00e1 dohoda.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee USA nedovol\u00ed Teher\u00e1nu kontrolovat Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, za\u010dal \u00cdr\u00e1n \u00fato\u010dit na lod\u011b. Vedlo to k\u00a0dvout\u00fddenn\u00edmu vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9mu ost\u0159elov\u00e1n\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n za\u00fato\u010dil na civiln\u00ed lo\u010f. USA odpov\u011bd\u011bly n\u00e1lety na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed a\u00a0Teher\u00e1n vyp\u00e1lil rakety na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Na to USA zareagovaly dal\u0161\u00edmi n\u00e1lety a\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1n vyp\u00e1lil dal\u0161\u00ed rakety\u2026<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fliv nesm\u00ed rozd\u011blovat<\/p>\n

\u00datern\u00ed \u00favodn\u00edk agentury Tasnim<\/a>, kter\u00e1 je spojen\u00e1 s\u00a0revolu\u010dn\u00edmi gardami, konstatuje, \u017ee Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je nyn\u00ed ve st\u0159edu pozornosti a\u00a0nem\u016f\u017ee se v\u00a0n\u011bm ustoupit. Agenturou osloven\u00fd expert na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vztahy Elham Sattari \u0159ekl: \u201eHormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv nen\u00ed n\u011bco, co lze snadno nahradit.\u201c<\/p>\n

Za nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9 pova\u017euje nejen voln\u00fd pohyb nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch lod\u00ed se zbran\u011bmi, ale i\u00a0tanker\u016f s\u00a0ropou z\u00a0jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed ne\u017e z\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu. S\u00a0t\u00edm p\u0159itom Teher\u00e1n v\u00a0minulosti probl\u00e9m nem\u011bl, a\u017e nyn\u00ed chce rozhodovat, kdo m\u016f\u017ee \u00fa\u017einou proplout a\u00a0kdo ne. \u201ePokud \u00cdr\u00e1n v\u00a0minulosti nemonopolizoval pr\u016fliv, tak nyn\u00ed se nevzd\u00e1 sv\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f, kdy\u017e ob\u011btoval za pr\u016fliv \u017eivoty lid\u00ed a\u00a0nep\u0159\u00edtele jasn\u011b porazil,\u201c dodal Sattari.<\/p>\n

P\u0159iznal i\u00a0rozpor ohledn\u011b pr\u016flivu, kdy\u017e varoval, \u017ee by t\u00e9ma pr\u016flivu nem\u011blo rozd\u011blovat spole\u010dnost, co\u017e podle n\u011bj chce nep\u0159\u00edtel. Je to pr\u00e1v\u011b jeho v\u00fdzva k\u00a0jednot\u011b, kter\u00e1 ukazuje na skute\u010dnost, \u017ee spole\u010dnost je rozd\u011blen\u00e1.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Zast\u00e1nci kompromis\u016f<\/p>\n

Na Vah\u00eddiho skupinu tla\u010d\u00ed lid\u00e9 podporuj\u00edc\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0kompromisy, kterou reprezentuj\u00ed prezident Mas\u00fad Peze\u0161kj\u00e1n, jen\u017e v\u00a0\u010dervnu dokonce dok\u00e1zal p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho duchovn\u00edho v\u016fdce Mod\u017etabu Chamane\u00edho, aby souhlasil s\u00a0podpisem Memoranda o\u00a0porozum\u011bn\u00ed, d\u00e1le p\u0159edseda parlamentu Bagher Ghalib\u00e1f a\u00a0ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Abb\u00e1s Arak\u010d\u00ed, uvedl v\u00a0anal\u00fdze list The New York Post<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Tito lid\u00e9 cht\u011bj\u00ed p\u0159edej\u00edt eskalaci boj\u016f, kter\u00e9 by mohly v\u00e9st k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed velk\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lce. Jejich pozice ale podle zdroje listu sl\u00e1bne. \u201eMohou podepisovat, ale nemohou zabr\u00e1nit revolu\u010dn\u00edm gard\u00e1m v\u00a0jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0parlamentu, aby p\u0159ij\u00edmal z\u00e1kony. Mezi poslanci maj\u00ed (gardy) v\u011bt\u0161inu\u2026 Zast\u00e1nci tvrd\u00e9 linie nepot\u0159ebuj\u00ed zv\u00edt\u011bzit v\u00a0intern\u00ed bitv\u011b argument\u016f, ale nastol\u00ed novou situaci a\u00a0parlament ji schv\u00e1l\u00ed,\u201c konstatuje list.<\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd je podle \u0159editele \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho programu Nadace pro obranu demokracie Benhama Bena Taleblua rozd\u00edl mezi t\u00edm, co politici \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed o\u00a0diplomacii, a\u00a0t\u00edm, jak bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slo\u017eky rozhoduj\u00ed na boji\u0161ti: \u201ePolitici v\u010detn\u011b ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed mluv\u00ed o\u00a0dialogu. Ale ti, co \u0159\u00edd\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n, ti, kte\u0159\u00ed dr\u017e\u00ed prst na spou\u0161ti, kte\u0159\u00ed d\u011blaj\u00ed ta nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed, d\u00e1le jednaj\u00ed tak, jako by jen eskalace m\u011bla zajistit jejich p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed.\u201c<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

O sl\u00e1bnouc\u00ed pozici politik\u016f ochotn\u00fdch ke kompromisu sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 jejich projevy, kter\u00e9 se d\u0159\u00edve p\u0159en\u00e1\u0161ely \u017eiv\u011b, jsou v\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti vys\u00edl\u00e1ny se zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm a\u00a0sest\u0159\u00edhan\u00e9. \u201eU rozd\u011blen\u00ed je t\u0159eba se d\u00edvat na to, na kom a\u00a0na \u010dem z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed,\u201c dodal Taleblu.<\/p>\n

Ekonomick\u00e9 pot\u00ed\u017ee zem\u011b <\/p>\n

\u00dapln\u011b rozhodnuto v\u0161ak nen\u00ed ani nyn\u00ed kv\u016fli ekonomick\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 i\u00a0agentura Tasnim. U\u017e v\u00a0p\u016flce \u010dervence tomuto m\u00e9diu \u010dlov\u011bk spojen\u00fd s\u00a0Ghalib\u00e1fem, jen\u017e je sou\u010dasn\u011b hlavn\u00edm vyjednava\u010dem, \u0159ekl, \u017ee by se \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u011bl vyhnout tomu, aby vynakl\u00e1dal na kontrolu pr\u016flivu tolik prost\u0159edk\u016f a\u00a0sil, \u017ee by to mohlo ohrozit stabilitu re\u017eimu nebo zachov\u00e1n\u00ed jeho jadern\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Peze\u0161kj\u00e1n u\u017e v\u00a0\u010dervnu ozna\u010doval ekonomickou situaci \u00cdr\u00e1nu pod sankcemi a\u00a0s\u00a0v\u00e1lkou poni\u010denou infrastrukturou za dlouhodob\u011b neudr\u017eitelnou. V\u00a0\u010dervenci dala najevo nespokojenost asi sto\u010dlenn\u00e1 skupina \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016f z\u00a0Isfah\u00e1nu, kte\u0159\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u011b protestovali proti poprav\u011b t\u0159\u00ed lid\u00ed v\u00a0souvislosti s\u00a0protesty z\u00a0p\u0159elomu roku vyvolan\u00fdmi ekonomickou kriz\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fliv je past pro Ameri\u010dany. Pro \u00cdr\u00e1nce ale taky<\/p>\n

Jeden ze \u010dlen\u016f parlamentn\u00edho v\u00fdboru pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost a\u00a0zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho parlamentu b\u011bhem parlamentn\u00ed debaty 23.\u00a0\u010dervence vyzval zast\u00e1nce tvrd\u00e9 linie k\u00a0uvoln\u011bn\u00ed politiky t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se pr\u016flivu, uvedl web Asriran<\/a>. Varoval, aby kv\u016fli pr\u016flivu \u00cdr\u00e1n neupadl do podobn\u00e9 pasti jako Donald Trump a\u00a0nesoust\u0159edil se jen na n\u011bj.<\/p>\n

Upozornil, \u017ee nejde o\u00a0film, kde re\u017eis\u00e9r nut\u00ed opakovat herce stejnou sc\u00e9nu, dokud nen\u00ed spokojen, ale je pot\u0159eba projevit pru\u017enost a\u00a0m\u00edt pl\u00e1n B.<\/p>\n

Zmi\u0148uje, \u017ee zbran\u011b umo\u017enily \u00cdr\u00e1nu blokovat pr\u016fliv a\u00a0\u017ee zem\u011b m\u00e1 st\u00e1le sv\u016fj jadern\u00fd materi\u00e1l a\u00a0balistick\u00e9 rakety, kter\u00e9 USA tak znepokojovaly, \u017ee kv\u016fli nim za\u00fato\u010dily.<\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e tato skupina nesouhlas\u00ed se skupinou okolo Vah\u00edd\u00edho ohledn\u011b pou\u017eit\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f, c\u00edl je stejn\u00fd – kontrolovat pr\u016fliv. To ostatn\u011b \u0159ekl i\u00a0\u010dlen parlamentn\u00edho v\u00fdboru, podle n\u011bho\u017e je pr\u016fliv \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd, i\u00a0kdyby se j\u00edm proplouvalo bez poplatk\u016f.<\/p>\n

Radik\u00e1lov\u00e9 odm\u00edtaj\u00ed jednat<\/p>\n

Je tu ale je\u0161t\u011b t\u0159et\u00ed skupina, by\u0165 men\u0161\u00ed. Tvo\u0159\u00ed ji radik\u00e1lov\u00e9 z\u00a0fronty Pajdari, kter\u00e1 odm\u00edt\u00e1 jak\u00e1koli jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. <\/p>\n

Sv\u016fj vliv v\u0161ak m\u00e1, proto\u017ee jej\u00ed \u010dlen Sa\u00edd D\u017ealili zastupuje Mod\u017etabu Chamene\u00edho v\u00a0Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed rad\u011b. Vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 k\u00a0n\u00e1vratu k\u00a0nekompromisn\u00edmu postoji v\u016f\u010di USA z\u00a0dob \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 revoluce na konci sedmdes\u00e1t\u00fdch let.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli hraj\u00ed nyn\u00ed v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 revolu\u010dn\u00ed gardy a\u00a0jejich velitel gener\u00e1lmajor Ahmad Vah\u00edd\u00ed. Potvrdil to u\u017e poh\u0159eb ajatoll\u00e1ha…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":162242,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[10],"tags":[1492,17,21,6387,808,7681,7825,4442,16,18,19,22,20],"class_list":["post-162241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-zpravy","tag-abbas-arakci","tag-headlines","tag-hlavni-udalosti","tag-hormuzsky-pruliv","tag-iran","tag-islamske-iranske-revolucni-gardy","tag-konflikt-usa-izrael-iran","tag-masud-pezeskjan","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-udalosti-dne","tag-zpravy"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117004299777478891","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/162241","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=162241"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/162241\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/162242"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=162241"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=162241"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=162241"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}