{"id":164515,"date":"2026-07-31T18:37:08","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T18:37:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/164515\/"},"modified":"2026-07-31T18:37:08","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T18:37:08","slug":"vznika-nejsilnejsi-el-nino-za-sto-padesat-let-teploty-prolomi-dosavadni-rekord-o-temer-cely-stupen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/164515\/","title":{"rendered":"Vznik\u00e1 nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed El Ni\u00f1o za sto pades\u00e1t let, teploty prolom\u00ed dosavadn\u00ed rekord o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 cel\u00fd stupe\u0148"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nad tropick\u00fdm Pacifikem se pr\u00e1v\u011b formuje klimatick\u00fd jev, kter\u00fd podle nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch model\u016f p\u0159ekon\u00e1 ve\u0161ker\u00e9 dosavadn\u00ed z\u00e1znamy, a to s mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b vysokou m\u00edrou shody mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edmi syst\u00e9my. Klimatologov\u00e9 mluv\u00ed o takzvan\u00e9m super El Ni\u00f1o, kter\u00fd by mohl dosavadn\u00ed rekord z let 2015 a 2016 p\u0159ekonat o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 cel\u00fd stupe\u0148 Celsia, co\u017e je podle jednoho z autor\u016f anal\u00fdzy jedna z m\u00e1la p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed, kter\u00e1 ho v jeho kari\u00e9\u0159e skute\u010dn\u011b \u0161okovala.<\/p>\n

Podle anal\u00fdzy americk\u00e9 neziskov\u00e9 organizace Berkeley Earth, kterou popsal \u010dasopis New Scientist<\/a>, ukazuje devades\u00e1t procent ze stovek simulac\u00ed \u010dtrn\u00e1cti r\u016fzn\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edch model\u016f, \u017ee teplota povrchu tropick\u00e9ho Pacifiku dos\u00e1hne \u00farovn\u011b, jak\u00e1 nebyla za posledn\u00edch sto pades\u00e1t let pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed zaznamen\u00e1na. O\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd vrchol m\u00e1 podle t\u011bchto model\u016f \u010dinit 3,6 stupn\u011b Celsia nad pr\u016fm\u011brem, co\u017e je v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u00edc ne\u017e dosavadn\u00ed rekord 2,75 stupn\u011b, zaznamenan\u00fd b\u011bhem siln\u00e9ho El Ni\u00f1o v letech 2015 a 2016.<\/p>\n

Klimatolog Zeke Hausfather z Berkeley Earth sv\u016fj osobn\u00ed \u00fadiv nad v\u00fdsledky popsal na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci pro novin\u00e1\u0159e p\u0159\u00edmo slovy, \u017ee jde o jeden z m\u00e1la p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f, kdy ho klimatick\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f opravdu \u0161okovala, a upozornil, \u017ee i medi\u00e1n v\u0161ech model\u016f po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00edm rekordu o 0,8 stupn\u011b Celsia. Podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed technick\u00fd rozbor, kter\u00fd Hausfather zve\u0159ejnil na sv\u00e9m blogu a kter\u00fd shrnuje server Yale Climate Connections<\/a>, dod\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd kontext, rozd\u00edl mezi nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a p\u00e1t\u00fdm nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm El Ni\u00f1o za posledn\u00edch sto pades\u00e1t let \u010din\u00ed obvykle jen zhruba p\u016fl stupn\u011b Celsia. Odchylka, kterou nyn\u00ed modely p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed pro rok 2026, je tak podle jeho slov mimo ve\u0161ker\u00fd dosavadn\u00ed pozorovan\u00fd rozsah.<\/p>\n

Samotn\u00fd mechanismus El Ni\u00f1o spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v oslaben\u00ed v\u00fdchodn\u00edch pas\u00e1tov\u00fdch v\u011btr\u016f v tropech, co\u017e umo\u017e\u0148uje vod\u011b nahromad\u011bn\u00e9 ve v\u00fdchodoasijsk\u00e9m takzvan\u00e9m tepl\u00e9m baz\u00e9nu vracet se zp\u00e1tky sm\u011brem k v\u00fdchodn\u00edmu Pacifiku. Sr\u00e1\u017eky se p\u0159itom posouvaj\u00ed na v\u00fdchod a d\u00e1le oslabuj\u00ed pas\u00e1tov\u00e9 v\u011btry, \u010d\u00edm\u017e vznik\u00e1 samo se posiluj\u00edc\u00ed smy\u010dka. P\u0159esto\u017ee jde o p\u0159irozen\u00fd cyklus, p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 se podle Berkeley Earth k ji\u017e existuj\u00edc\u00edmu glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu oteplen\u00ed o 1,4 stupn\u011b Celsia a po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b spou\u0161t\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Rychlost, jakou se leto\u0161n\u00ed jev rozv\u00edj\u00ed, je podle dostupn\u00fdch dat rovn\u011b\u017e bezprecedentn\u00ed. Teplota povrchu vody ve st\u0159edov\u00fdchodn\u00edm Pacifiku u\u017e dos\u00e1hla 2,1 stupn\u011b Celsia nad pr\u016fm\u011brem, co\u017e v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159evy\u0161uje n\u00e1r\u016fst 1,6 stupn\u011b zaznamenan\u00fd ve stejn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed roku b\u011bhem p\u0159edchoz\u00edho rekordmana v rychlosti n\u00e1stupu, tedy El Ni\u00f1o z let 1997 a 1998. Podle podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdzy zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9 na serveru The Climate Brink<\/a> se leto\u0161n\u00ed jev nav\u00edc rozv\u00edj\u00ed z opravdu chladn\u00e9ho v\u00fdchoz\u00edho stavu, na rozd\u00edl od roku 2015, kdy start ovlivnil je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edchoz\u00ed slab\u0161\u00ed El Ni\u00f1o jev.<\/p>\n

Dopad na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty se podle predikc\u00ed projev\u00ed hlavn\u011b v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm roce. Server New Scientist uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty v roce 2027 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b dos\u00e1hnou 1,7 stupn\u011b Celsia nad p\u0159edpr\u016fmyslov\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem, co\u017e by p\u0159ekonalo dosavadn\u00ed rekord z roku 2024, kdy teploty dos\u00e1hly 1,5 stupn\u011b. Vzhledem k rychlosti n\u00e1stupu tohoto konkr\u00e9tn\u00edho jevu p\u0159itom podle serveru Carbon Brief<\/a> existuje i ur\u010dit\u00e1 \u0161ance, \u017ee rekordn\u011b tepl\u00fd bude u\u017e samotn\u00fd rok 2026. Klimatolog Robert Rohde z Berkeley Earth na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci upozornil, \u017ee s ohledem na tato \u010d\u00edsla dvacetilet\u00fd teplotn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b do roku 2029 p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed hranici 1,5 stupn\u011b Celsia, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by sv\u011bt nesplnil c\u00edl stanoven\u00fd Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017eskou dohodou, proto\u017ee podle jeho slov u\u017e dnes sv\u011bt p\u0159esahuje 1,4 stupn\u011b a zb\u00fdv\u00e1 jen velmi mal\u00e1 rezerva.<\/p>\n

Dopady se p\u0159itom podle regionu v\u00fdrazn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed. Hust\u011b obydlen\u00e1 ji\u017en\u00ed \u010c\u00edna m\u016f\u017ee podle p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed \u010delit siln\u00fdm de\u0161\u0165\u016fm na ja\u0159e a v l\u00e9t\u011b se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdm rizikem povodn\u00ed na \u0159ece Jang-c‘-\u0165iang, kde podobn\u00e9 povodn\u011b b\u011bhem super El Ni\u00f1o v letech 1997 a 1998 zabily p\u0159es t\u0159i tis\u00edce lid\u00ed. Severov\u00fdchod Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f b\u00fdv\u00e1 b\u011bhem El Ni\u00f1o su\u0161\u0161\u00ed, zat\u00edmco jih USA za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 vlh\u010d\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed, kter\u00e9 dok\u00e1\u017ee v m\u00edstech jako Kalifornie spustit sesuvy p\u016fdy. Austr\u00e1lie m\u00e1 tendenci vysychat, co\u017e zvy\u0161uje riziko lesn\u00edch po\u017e\u00e1r\u016f podobn\u00fdch t\u011bm z takzvan\u00e9ho \u010cern\u00e9ho l\u00e9ta 2018 a 2019, zat\u00edmco Indie, ji\u017en\u00ed a st\u0159edn\u00ed Afrika i \u010d\u00e1sti st\u0159edn\u00ed a ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky \u010del\u00ed riziku sucha, kter\u00e9 by mohlo zv\u00fd\u0161it ceny komodit jako r\u00fd\u017ee, k\u00e1va nebo kakao i v zem\u00edch, kter\u00e9 samy suchem p\u0159\u00edmo posti\u017eeny nejsou.<\/p>\n

Ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky podobn\u011b siln\u00e9ho jevu mohou b\u00fdt podle rozboru zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9ho v \u010dasopise Nature<\/a> mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b vysok\u00e9. Klimatolog Justin Mankin a jeho kolegov\u00e9 odhadli, \u017ee extr\u00e9mn\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed spojen\u00e9 se siln\u00fdm El Ni\u00f1o z let 1997 a 1998 zmen\u0161ilo glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch letech o 5,7 bilionu dolar\u016f, a pokud se leto\u0161n\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi potvrd\u00ed, mohl by podle Mankina sou\u010dasn\u00fd jev zp\u016fsobit ekonomick\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty a\u017e deset bilion\u016f dolar\u016f do roku 2032. Siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o jevy nav\u00edc podle Hausfathera \u0161kod\u00ed i ekosyst\u00e9m\u016fm, v\u010detn\u011b rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9ho blednut\u00ed kor\u00e1lov\u00fdch \u00fates\u016f, kter\u00e9 se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 i letos, a proto je podle jeho slov pot\u0159eba se na podobn\u00e9 dopady za\u010d\u00edt p\u0159ipravovat u\u017e dnes, v\u010detn\u011b budov\u00e1n\u00ed syst\u00e9m\u016f pro zvl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed sucha.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nad tropick\u00fdm Pacifikem se pr\u00e1v\u011b formuje klimatick\u00fd jev, kter\u00fd podle nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch model\u016f p\u0159ekon\u00e1 ve\u0161ker\u00e9 dosavadn\u00ed z\u00e1znamy, a to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":164516,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[11],"tags":[2038,9267,2037,255,54,53,52],"class_list":["post-164515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-svet","tag-clanek","tag-el-nino","tag-nedd","tag-pocasi","tag-svet","tag-world","tag-world-news"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117016044866351363","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164515","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=164515"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164515\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/164516"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=164515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=164515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=164515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}