{"id":167946,"date":"2026-08-04T09:25:11","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T09:25:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/167946\/"},"modified":"2026-08-04T09:25:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T09:25:11","slug":"horko-vstupuje-do-vysledovek-i-maly-vypadek-vykonu-znamena-desitky-miliard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/167946\/","title":{"rendered":"Horko vstupuje do v\u00fdsledovek. I mal\u00fd v\u00fdpadek v\u00fdkonu znamen\u00e1 des\u00edtky miliard"},"content":{"rendered":"

Po\u010das\u00ed u\u017e nen\u00ed kulisou ekonomiky. St\u00e1v\u00e1 se\u00a0jednou z\u00a0jej\u00edch vstupn\u00edch cen.<\/p>\n

Po\u0159\u00e1d jsme zvykl\u00ed p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let o\u00a0hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m r\u016fstu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, cen energi\u00ed, mezd, objedn\u00e1vek a\u00a0kurzu koruny. St\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji ale bude o\u00a0v\u00fdkonu jednotliv\u00fdch firem rozhodovat tak\u00e9 po\u010det tropick\u00fdch dn\u016f, mno\u017estv\u00ed vody v\u00a0p\u016fd\u011b nebo teplota v\u00fdrobn\u00ed haly.<\/p>\n

\u010cty\u0159icet stup\u0148\u016f nen\u00ed ekologick\u00e9 stanovisko. Je to provozn\u00ed podm\u00ednka.<\/p>\n

\"Farm\u00e1\u0159i<\/a> N\u011bkolik desetin v\u00fdkonu znamen\u00e1 des\u00edtky miliard <\/p>\n

V\u00fdzkum publikovan\u00fd Evropskou centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bankou<\/a> odhaduje, \u017ee v\u00fdrazn\u00e1 letn\u00ed vlna veder m\u016f\u017ee sn\u00ed\u017eit ekonomickou aktivitu zasa\u017een\u00e9ho evropsk\u00e9ho regionu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o jedno procento. Dopad nav\u00edc nemus\u00ed po prvn\u00edm de\u0161ti zmizet. Po dvou letech byl v\u00fdkon sledovan\u00fdch region\u016f zhruba o 1,5 procenta ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed a v historicky nejteplej\u0161\u00edch oblastech klesala produktivita pr\u00e1ce a\u017e o deset procent.<\/p>\n

To neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee n\u011bkolik hork\u00fdch dn\u016f automaticky sebere jedno procento ro\u010dn\u00edho \u010desk\u00e9ho HDP. Studie pracuje s\u00a0region\u00e1ln\u00edmi ekonomikami a\u00a0vlnu veder definuje jako letn\u00ed teplotu v\u00edce ne\u017e dva stupn\u011b nad\u00a0historick\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem dan\u00e9ho regionu. Mechanicky p\u0159en\u00e9st jej\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed odhad na\u00a0celou republiku by bylo analytick\u00e9 \u0161arlat\u00e1nstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Lze ale uk\u00e1zat, o\u00a0jak\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stk\u00e1ch se\u00a0bav\u00edme. Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159ada Eurostatu<\/a> uv\u00e1d\u00ed pro rok 2025 \u010desk\u00fd nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed HDP p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 347,3 miliardy eur. P\u0159i pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9m kurzu 24,693 koruny za\u00a0euro<\/a> odpov\u00edd\u00e1 v\u00fdkon \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky zhruba 8,57 bilionu korun.<\/p>\n

Pokud by soub\u011bh ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed produktivity, dra\u017e\u0161\u00edho provozu a\u00a0v\u00fdpadk\u016f v\u00fdroby ubral z\u00a0v\u00fdkonu ekonomiky jen \u010dtvrt procenta, odpov\u00eddalo by to p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 21,4 miliardy korun. P\u016fl procenta p\u0159edstavuje asi 42,9 miliardy, cel\u00e9 procento potom zhruba 85,7 miliardy korun.<\/p>\n

Nejde o\u00a0p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f jednoho konkr\u00e9tn\u00edho l\u00e9ta. Je to m\u011b\u0159\u00edtko.<\/p>\n

Jednadvacet miliard nen\u00ed statistick\u00fd \u0161um ani chyba zaokrouhlen\u00ed. Je to \u010d\u00e1stka srovnateln\u00e1 s\u00a0velk\u00fdm dopravn\u00edm projektem, n\u011bkolika v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi nemocni\u010dn\u00edmi investicemi nebo cel\u00fdm pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdm programem.<\/p>\n

Ztr\u00e1ta nav\u00edc nevznik\u00e1 jen ve\u00a0chv\u00edli, kdy se\u00a0zastav\u00ed tov\u00e1rna. Vznik\u00e1 po\u00a0mal\u00fdch d\u00e1vk\u00e1ch: d\u011bln\u00edci pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed v\u00edce p\u0159est\u00e1vek, \u0159idi\u010di\u00a0a\u00a0skladn\u00edci pracuj\u00ed pomaleji, stavebn\u00ed pr\u00e1ce se\u00a0p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed na\u00a0r\u00e1no a\u00a0firmy plat\u00ed chlazen\u00ed nebo no\u010dn\u00ed sm\u011bny.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0kancel\u00e1\u0159i\u00a0se\u00a0zat\u00e1hnou \u017ealuzie a\u00a0roze\u0161le e-mail o\u00a0pitn\u00e9m re\u017eimu. Na\u00a0stavb\u011b, ve\u00a0skladu nebo ve\u00a0sl\u00e9v\u00e1rn\u011b je ekonomick\u00e1 realita o\u00a0n\u011bco m\u00e9n\u011b poetick\u00e1.<\/p>\n

\"Teplotn\u00ed<\/a> Horko se\u00a0rozpust\u00ed v\u00a0cen\u00e1ch j\u00eddla, elekt\u0159iny i\u00a0pr\u00e1ce <\/p>\n

Horko se\u00a0ve\u00a0v\u00fdsledovce neobjev\u00ed jako jedna p\u0159ehledn\u00e1 polo\u017eka. Rozleze se\u00a0do\u00a0des\u00edtek men\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f.<\/p>\n

Jedn\u00edm z\u00a0nejviditeln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch jsou ceny potravin. ECB odhaduje, \u017ee extr\u00e9mn\u011b tepl\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 l\u00e9to roku 2022 zv\u00fd\u0161ilo b\u011bhem n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch dvan\u00e1cti m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f potravinovou inflaci p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o\u00a00,7 procentn\u00edho bodu<\/a> proti sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i bez mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9ho teplotn\u00edho \u0161oku.<\/p>\n

Pro\u00a0dom\u00e1cnost s\u00a0ro\u010dn\u00edmi v\u00fddaji za\u00a0potraviny ve\u00a0v\u00fd\u0161i\u00a0120 tis\u00edc korun p\u0159edstavuje 0,7 procenta p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 840 korun. Samostatn\u011b to nen\u00ed katastrofa. Vyn\u00e1sobeno miliony dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed a\u00a0kombinov\u00e1no s\u00a0dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed energi\u00ed, bydlen\u00edm a\u00a0slu\u017ebami u\u017e jde o\u00a0tlak, kter\u00fd poc\u00edt\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 i\u00a0centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka.<\/p>\n

\u00daroky lze zv\u00fd\u0161it b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika minut. Ani velmi jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00ed tiskov\u00e1 konference ale nevyp\u011bstuje dal\u0161\u00ed tunu p\u0161enice.<\/p>\n

Podobn\u011b funguje sucho. Podle Evropsk\u00e9 agentury pro\u00a0\u017eivotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed stoj\u00ed evropskou ekonomiku v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru 9,4 miliardy eur ro\u010dn\u011b<\/a>. V\u00a0mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9m roce 2022 v\u0161ak \u00fa\u010det vystoupil na\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 50 miliard eur a\u00a0produkce obilovin v\u00a0EU byla v\u00a0letech 2022 a\u00a02023 v\u00edce ne\u017e deset procent pod\u00a0rekordn\u00ed \u00farovn\u00ed roku 2014.<\/p>\n

To je v\u00edce ne\u017e p\u011btin\u00e1sobek dlouhodob\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011bru.<\/p>\n

Ekonomiku toti\u017e obvykle nezlom\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd rok. Rozpo\u010det rozbij\u00ed dva nebo t\u0159i\u00a0t\u00fddny, b\u011bhem nich\u017e se\u00a0rozhodne o\u00a0\u00farod\u011b, dostupnosti vody nebo spot\u0159eb\u011b energie na\u00a0cel\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce dop\u0159edu.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010det p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm elekt\u0159iny. B\u011bhem veder roste spot\u0159eba klimatizac\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00a0hodin\u00e1ch, kdy jsou s\u00edt\u011b nejv\u00edce zat\u00ed\u017een\u00e9. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e1 agentura uv\u00e1d\u00ed<\/a>, \u017ee v\u00a0roce 2024 vedla \u010dervnov\u00e1 vlna veder na\u00a0Balk\u00e1n\u011b k\u00a0rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdpadk\u016fm proudu a\u00a0b\u011bhem \u010dervence zaznamenaly Srbsko a\u00a0Chorvatsko rekordn\u00ed popt\u00e1vku po\u00a0elekt\u0159in\u011b.<\/p>\n

Vznik\u00e1 jednoduch\u00e1 past. Bez\u00a0chlazen\u00ed kles\u00e1 v\u00fdkon lid\u00ed i\u00a0technologi\u00ed. S\u00a0chlazen\u00edm rostou n\u00e1klady, spot\u0159eba a\u00a0pot\u0159eba dal\u0161\u00edch investic do\u00a0v\u00fdroby a\u00a0s\u00edt\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Klimatizace je proto zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed druh kapit\u00e1lu. Firma za\u00a0ni utrat\u00ed pen\u00edze, ale nevyr\u00e1b\u00ed d\u00edky n\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e d\u0159\u00edve. Pouze zabra\u0148uje tomu, aby vyr\u00e1b\u011bla m\u00e9n\u011b.<\/p>\n

ECB upozor\u0148uje<\/a>, \u017ee firmy v\u00a0teplej\u0161\u00edch regionech investuj\u00ed v\u00edce do\u00a0adapta\u010dn\u00edho vybaven\u00ed, nap\u0159\u00edklad chlazen\u00ed. Tyto investice v\u0161ak vytla\u010duj\u00ed kapit\u00e1l, kter\u00fd mohl sm\u011b\u0159ovat do\u00a0produktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch technologi\u00ed, automatizace nebo v\u00fdvoje.<\/p>\n

Podnik investuje, ale \u010d\u00e1st pen\u011bz\u00a0slou\u017e\u00ed jen k\u00a0tomu, aby z\u016fstal na\u00a0m\u00edst\u011b.<\/p>\n

\"Konec<\/a> Evropa u\u017e zaplatila stovky miliard. V\u011bt\u0161inu bez\u00a0poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed <\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010det nevznik\u00e1 pouze ve\u00a0v\u00fdrob\u011b. P\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed tak\u00e9 ve\u00a0chv\u00edli, kdy se\u00a0opravuj\u00ed silnice, trat\u011b, elektrick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b, sklady, domy a\u00a0zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 provozy.<\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e1 agentura pro\u00a0\u017eivotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed vy\u010d\u00edslila p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 extr\u00e9mn\u00edm po\u010das\u00edm v\u00a0Evropsk\u00e9 unii mezi lety 1980 a\u00a02024 na\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 822 miliard eur<\/a>. Jen na\u00a0roky 2021 a\u017e\u00a02024 p\u0159ipadlo p\u0159es\u00a0208 miliard eur, tedy \u010dtvrtina cel\u00e9ho p\u011bta\u010dty\u0159icetilet\u00e9ho sou\u010dtu.<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty se\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161ily z\u00a08,6 miliardy eur v\u00a0osmdes\u00e1t\u00fdch letech na\u00a044,9 miliardy eur v\u00a0obdob\u00ed 2020 a\u017e\u00a02024. Vlny veder p\u0159edstavovaly t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 18 procent celkov\u00fdch \u0161kod, tedy prost\u00fdm p\u0159epo\u010dtem p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 148 miliard eur.<\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b to neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee cel\u00fd r\u016fst zp\u016fsobilo jen hor\u0161\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed. Evropa m\u00e1 v\u00edce budov, dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed infrastrukturu a\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed majetku v\u00a0rizikov\u00fdch m\u00edstech. Jen\u017ee\u00a0ani to nen\u00ed argument proti probl\u00e9mu. Je to jeho sou\u010d\u00e1st.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edm dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed majetek postav\u00edme, t\u00edm\u00a0d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, zda ho dok\u00e1\u017eeme chr\u00e1nit a\u00a0pojistit.<\/p>\n

A\u00a0pr\u00e1v\u011b tady se\u00a0evropsk\u00e1 ekonomika dost\u00e1v\u00e1 k\u00a0obl\u00edben\u00e9mu triku: v\u00fdnos nech\u00e1me soukrom\u00fd, riziko nakonec po\u0161leme st\u00e1tu.<\/p>\n

Podle Evropsk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky je v\u00a0EU poji\u0161t\u011bna\u00a0pouze p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b \u010dtvrtina ztr\u00e1t souvisej\u00edc\u00edch s\u00a0p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edmi katastrofami<\/a>. V\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch zem\u00edch \u010din\u00ed pojistn\u00e9 kryt\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e p\u011bt procent. Zbytek nesou vlastn\u00edci, firmy, banky a\u00a0nakonec ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 rozpo\u010dty.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e\u00a0riziko nen\u00ed zapo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 do\u00a0pojistky, \u00fav\u011bru nebo ceny nemovitosti, neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee neexistuje. Znamen\u00e1 to jen, \u017ee \u00fa\u010det nem\u00e1 p\u0159edem ur\u010den\u00e9ho adres\u00e1ta.<\/p>\n

A\u00a0st\u00e1t b\u00fdv\u00e1 v\u00a0podobn\u00fdch chv\u00edl\u00edch tradi\u010dn\u00ed sb\u011brnou nevy\u017e\u00e1dan\u00e9 po\u0161ty.<\/p>\n

Evropa m\u00e1 sklon \u0159e\u0161it ka\u017ed\u00fd probl\u00e9m regulac\u00ed. Jen\u017ee\u00a0na\u00a0horko nelze vydat sm\u011brnici, na\u00a0sucho kv\u00f3tu a\u00a0na\u00a0slabou \u00farodu taxonomii.<\/p>\n

Lze proti nim investovat.<\/p>\n

Do\u00a0stabiln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b. Do\u00a0vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 infrastruktury. Do\u00a0chlazen\u00ed provoz\u016f, st\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed budov, poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, reten\u010dn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f a\u00a0pru\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed organizace pr\u00e1ce. Do\u00a0trat\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se\u00a0p\u0159i\u00a0prvn\u00edm extr\u00e9mu nezvln\u00ed, a\u00a0do\u00a0m\u011bst, kde ka\u017ed\u00e1 vlna horka nezp\u016fsob\u00ed mal\u00fd provozn\u00ed kolaps.<\/p>\n

Firma, kter\u00e1 dok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159esunout sm\u011bny, udr\u017eet rozumnou teplotu v\u00a0hale, zajistit vodu a\u00a0pojistit z\u00e1sadn\u00ed majetek, bude produktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e konkurent, kter\u00fd ka\u017ed\u00fd srpen znovu objev\u00ed l\u00e9to.<\/p>\n

Nejde o\u00a0zachra\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed planety. Jde o\u00a0\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed rizika.<\/p>\n

Horko evropskou ekonomiku nezni\u010d\u00ed. Bude ji zdra\u017eovat po\u00a0mal\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stk\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

O\u00a0n\u011bkolik desetin ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdkon. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010det za\u00a0elekt\u0159inu. Dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed j\u00eddlo. Dal\u0161\u00ed pojistka. Dal\u0161\u00ed investice, kter\u00e1 nevytvo\u0159\u00ed nic nov\u00e9ho, pouze udr\u017e\u00ed star\u00fd provoz.<\/p>\n

Nikde nevznikne jedna velk\u00e1 faktura s\u00a0n\u00e1pisem \u201evedro\u201c.<\/p>\n

Vzniknou tis\u00edce men\u0161\u00edch \u00fa\u010dt\u016f, kter\u00e9 se\u00a0ztrat\u00ed ve\u00a0v\u00fdsledovk\u00e1ch, cen\u00e1ch, st\u00e1tn\u00edch rozpo\u010dtech a\u00a0pomalej\u0161\u00edm r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n

A\u00a0pr\u00e1v\u011b proto je tak snadn\u00e9 je ignorovat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Po\u010das\u00ed u\u017e nen\u00ed kulisou ekonomiky. St\u00e1v\u00e1 se\u00a0jednou z\u00a0jej\u00edch vstupn\u00edch cen. Po\u0159\u00e1d jsme zvykl\u00ed p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let o\u00a0hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m r\u016fstu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":167947,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[41393,3544,2507,5678,41398,36839,41395,13121,109,108,106,35196,321,10459,15974,41392,41391,37199,686,7609,6119,41403,41406,41407,41397,41400,41396,41394,41405,31685,41401,41402,34376,39635,41390,41404,41399],"class_list":["post-167946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-evropa","tag-22-miliard-korun","tag-ceny-potravin","tag-ceska-ekonomika","tag-ecb","tag-eea","tag-ekonomicke-dopady-veder","tag-ekonomicke-skody","tag-energeticke-site","tag-europa","tag-europe","tag-evropa","tag-evropska-agentura-pro-zivotni-prostredi","tag-evropska-centralni-banka","tag-evropska-ekonomika","tag-extremni-pocasi","tag-hdp-ceska","tag-horko-v-evrope","tag-hospodarsky-rust","tag-inflace","tag-infrastruktura","tag-klimatizace","tag-konkurenceschopnost-evropy","tag-letni-vedra","tag-naklady-firem","tag-nepojistene-skody","tag-podnikatelske-naklady","tag-pojisteni-katastrof","tag-potravinova-inflace","tag-prace-v-horku","tag-produktivita-prace","tag-provozni-riziko","tag-rizeni-rizik","tag-spotreba-elektriny","tag-sucho-v-evrope","tag-vedra-a-ekonomika","tag-verejne-rozpocty","tag-zemedelska-produkce"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=167946"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167946\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/167947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=167946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=167946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=167946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}