{"id":169534,"date":"2026-08-05T15:10:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T15:10:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/169534\/"},"modified":"2026-08-05T15:10:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T15:10:09","slug":"pakovy-debakl-ai-hvezdy-i-pad-ropy-americke-akcie-trhaji-rekordy-pod-povrchem-to-ale-vre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/169534\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u00e1kov\u00fd debakl AI hv\u011bzdy i p\u00e1d ropy. Americk\u00e9 akcie trhaj\u00ed rekordy, pod povrchem to ale v\u0159e"},"content":{"rendered":"

Americk\u00e9 akciov\u00e9 indexy jsou zp\u00e1tky na rekordech. Investory povzbudily v\u00fdsledky technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 rozpt\u00fdlily obavy ohledn\u011b pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed boomu um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence (AI). K r\u016fstu burz p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 i pokles cen ropy a s\u00e1zky na to, \u017ee v\u00e1lka v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu by mohla brzy skon\u010dit<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed akciov\u00fd index S&P 500 v \u00fater\u00fd pos\u00edlil o 1,8 procenta na 7737 bod\u016f a p\u0159ekonal sv\u016fj dosavadn\u00ed rekord 7610 z 2. \u010dervna. Od minul\u00e9 st\u0159edy p\u0159idal tento index t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u0161est procent.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Hodnota indexu posko\u010dila zejm\u00e9na kv\u016fli v\u00fdznamn\u00e9mu r\u016fstu akci\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch technologick\u00fdch skupin, je\u017e v n\u011bm maj\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1hu. Microsoft od minul\u00e9 st\u0159edy pos\u00edlil o 27 procent a Amazon p\u0159idal 22 procent. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b obou spole\u010dnost\u00ed hr\u00e1ly roli dobr\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9\u00a0 v\u00fdsledky, kter\u00e9 spr\u00e1vce pen\u011bz p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dily, \u017ee se t\u011bmto firm\u00e1m vypl\u00e1cej\u00ed stamiliardov\u00e9 investice do datov\u00fdch center<\/a>, \u010dip\u016f a jin\u00e9 AI infrastruktury.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tak\u00e9 ostatn\u00edm index\u016fm se da\u0159ilo. Na historicky nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnot\u011b je t\u00e9\u017e Index Dow Jones Industrial Average, kter\u00fd je tvo\u0159en\u00fd p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdmi podniky. V \u00fater\u00fd pos\u00edlil o 1,7 procenta. Na technologie zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fd Nasdaq p\u0159idal 2,6 procenta a je nejv\u00fd\u0161 od p\u016flky \u010dervna.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jedn\u00edm z faktor\u016f, jen\u017e nahr\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00e1jmu o akcie, je propad cen ropy. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku t\u00fddne zlevnila ropa typu Brent t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o 13 procent na 78,7 dolaru (1652 korun). Stoj\u00ed za t\u00edm sign\u00e1ly, \u017ee Donald Trump usiluje o dohodu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. K pozitivn\u00ed n\u00e1lad\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bla i zpr\u00e1va<\/a> agentury Bloomberg, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n zva\u017euje, \u017ee by umo\u017enil evropsk\u00fdm zem\u00edm pod\u00edlet se na odstra\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed min v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu, d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trase pro energetick\u00e9 komodity.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Burz\u00e1m se v uplynul\u00fdch t\u00fddnech neda\u0159ilo, proto\u017ee vyprchala euforie kolem v\u00fdrobc\u016f \u010dip\u016f a pam\u011bt\u00ed<\/a>. Akcie americk\u00fdch firem jako Sandisk a Micron nebo jihokorejsk\u00fdch skupin SK Hynix \u010di Samsung<\/a> v minul\u00fdch t\u00fddnech ztr\u00e1cely des\u00edtky procent. Tyto tituly se obchoduj\u00ed na n\u011bkolikan\u00e1sobc\u00edch sv\u00fdch hodnot ze za\u010d\u00e1tku roku a n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed investo\u0159i se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee takov\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst mohl b\u00fdt p\u0159ehnan\u00fd.\u00a0<\/p>\n

K nervozit\u011b p\u0159isp\u011blo to, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 technologick\u00e9 skupiny p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed se st\u00e1le v\u00fdkonn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi AI modely<\/a>, o nich\u017e se tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee mohly b\u00fdt vyvinuty v\u00fdrazn\u011b levn\u011bji ne\u017e \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00e9 americk\u00e9 modely. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 trh vyd\u011bsila skute\u010dnost, \u017ee m\u00e1 Peking k dispozici litografick\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kter\u00e1 mu umo\u017en\u00ed vyr\u00e1b\u011bt pokro\u010dil\u00e9 \u010dipy srovnateln\u00e9 s t\u011bmi z\u00e1padn\u00edmi. Pokud by se za\u010daly v\u00edc vyu\u017e\u00edvat \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 AI modely, sn\u00ed\u017eila by se podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch analytik\u016f mo\u017en\u00e1 tak\u00e9 popt\u00e1vka po \u010dipech, pam\u011bt\u00edch a jin\u00fdch komponentech. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd nedostatek \u010dip\u016f by se tak mohl zm\u011bnit v jejich nadbytek.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pot\u00ed\u017ee z\u00e1zra\u010dn\u00e9ho d\u00edt\u011bte<\/p>\n

\u010cipov\u00e9 firmy v posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech za\u017e\u00edvaly neb\u00fdval\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy, kdy b\u011b\u017en\u011b doch\u00e1zelo ke skok\u016fm v cen\u00e1ch v rozsahu deseti nebo i 20 procent. P\u0159itom tr\u017en\u00ed kapitalizace Micronu a SK Hynix dosahuje kolem jednoho bilionu dolar\u016f, v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Sandisku je zhruba 200 miliard dolar\u016f. Jin\u00fdmi slovy: u takto velk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed doch\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159i zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch pohybech cen k opravdu enormn\u00edm p\u0159esun\u016fm pen\u011bz.<\/p>\n

Podle odborn\u00edk\u016f sehr\u00e1lo roli tak\u00e9 masivn\u00ed obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed na p\u00e1ku, do n\u011bho\u017e se pou\u0161t\u011bli jak sofistikovan\u00e9 nadn\u00e1rodn\u00ed fondy, tak i\u00a0 nezku\u0161en\u00ed drobn\u00ed investo\u0159i z cel\u00e9ho sv\u011bta, nap\u0159\u00edklad z Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje. Jde o investov\u00e1n\u00ed, p\u0159i kter\u00e9m investor pou\u017eije na n\u00e1kup akci\u00ed pouze \u010d\u00e1st vlastn\u00edch pen\u011bz a na zbytek si p\u016fj\u010d\u00ed. Pokud cena roste, jsou v\u00fdd\u011blky n\u00e1sobn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. Pokles ale naopak prohlubuje ztr\u00e1ty a nez\u0159\u00eddka se stane, \u017ee kupuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159ijde o ve\u0161ker\u00fd vlo\u017een\u00fd kapit\u00e1l.<\/p>\n

O riziku takov\u00fdch transakc\u00ed se p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dil i 25let\u00fd n\u011bmecko-americk\u00fd investor Leopold Aschenbrenner<\/a>, jeho\u017e hedgeov\u00fd fond Situational Awareness pat\u0159il mezi nej\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dr\u017eitele \u010dipov\u00fdch akci\u00ed. Aschenbrenner v minulosti p\u016fsobil jako AI expert v OpenAI, a proto byl vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako insider, kter\u00fd na rozd\u00edl od v\u011bt\u0161iny finan\u010dn\u00edk\u016f skute\u010dn\u011b rozum\u00ed technologi\u00edm a l\u00e9pe tak ch\u00e1pe fungov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto byznysu. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku do konce \u010dervna vyd\u011blal v\u00edce ne\u017e 400 procent a jeho celkov\u00e1 aktiva p\u0159es\u00e1hla 20 miliard dolar\u016f. \u00dasp\u011bch fondu st\u00e1l ve velk\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e pr\u00e1v\u011b na vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed p\u00e1ky.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se v\u0161ak situace v \u010dervenci oto\u010dila a \u010dipov\u00e9 tituly za\u010daly ztr\u00e1cet<\/a> des\u00edtky procent, Aschenbrenner\u016fv<\/a> fond utrp\u011bl rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty a musel portfolio rychle rozprod\u00e1vat, aby pokryl p\u016fj\u010dky, jimi\u017e n\u00e1kup akci\u00ed p\u016fvodn\u011b financoval. Situace dosp\u011bla a\u017e tak daleko, \u017ee velkou \u010d\u00e1st akciov\u00e9ho portfolia fondu nakonec se slevou koupil jin\u00fd hedgeov\u00fd fond \u2013 Citadel miliard\u00e1\u0159e Kena Griffina.<\/p>\n

Od t\u00e9 doby se ale situace u \u010dipov\u00fdch firem trochu stabilizovala. Divok\u00e9 pohyby z minul\u00fdch t\u00fddn\u016f tak nejsp\u00ed\u0161 souvisely i s nucen\u00fdmi v\u00fdprodeji pozic kv\u016fli spl\u00e1cen\u00ed p\u016fj\u010dek, tedy s takzvan\u00fdmi margin calls.<\/p>\n

Mraky nad Japonskem<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed se akciov\u00e9 trhy jako celek zase vracej\u00ed k r\u016fstu. Je ov\u0161em z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee investo\u0159i ignoruj\u00ed celou \u0159adu rizik. I p\u0159es Trumpovy o\u010dividn\u00e9 snahy v\u00e1lku s \u00cdr\u00e1nem definitivn\u011b ukon\u010dit z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 trval\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed daleko. Dal\u0161\u00ed hrozbou je m\u011bnov\u00e1 politika hlavn\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank. Kv\u016fli inflaci bude muset americk\u00fd Fed zv\u00fd\u0161it sazby. Nov\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f Fedu Kevin Warsh zat\u00edm nep\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dil, \u017ee je prosp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 d\u00e1vat trhu sp\u00ed\u0161 m\u00e9n\u011b informac\u00ed, ne\u017e je obvykl\u00e9<\/a>. Vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed to nejistotu, je\u017e nut\u00ed investory, aby se zbavovali americk\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f.<\/p>\n

K tomu nesm\u00edme zapom\u00ednat na situaci v Japonsku, kde nyn\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty pomohly tamn\u00ed vl\u00e1d\u011b intervenovat proti slab\u00e9mu jenu. V\u00fdnos japonsk\u00e9ho desetilet\u00e9ho vl\u00e1dn\u00edho bondu se vy\u0161plhal na 2,8 procenta, co\u017e je nejv\u00edce za posledn\u00edch 30 let. V zemi p\u0159itom zrychluje inflace a centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka se ocit\u00e1 v situaci, kdy by m\u011bla zv\u00fd\u0161it sazby.<\/p>\n

Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00faroky ale jsou probl\u00e9m pro stabilitu bank a finan\u010dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed. Japonsko se pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00fdm zadlu\u017een\u00edm \u2013 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluh tam p\u0159esahuje 200 procent HDP. Tamn\u00ed ekonomiku by tedy vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00faroky citeln\u011b zas\u00e1hly, nebo\u0165 firmy, dom\u00e1cnosti i st\u00e1t dlouho fungovaly na velmi n\u00edzk\u00fdch, \u010di dokonce z\u00e1porn\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch. V Japonsku je tak zad\u011bl\u00e1no na probl\u00e9m. Plat\u00ed p\u0159itom, \u017ee co se stane v Tokiu, v Tokiu nez\u016fstane<\/a>: tamn\u00ed banky a poji\u0161\u0165ovny jsou d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdmi kupci zahrani\u010dn\u00edch, hlavn\u011b americk\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f a jejich t\u011b\u017ekosti by zas\u00e1hly finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy tak\u00e9 v dal\u0161\u00edch regionech.<\/p>\n

Tom\u00e1\u0161 Pfeiler je portfolio mana\u017eer v investi\u010dn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti Cyrrus, s dlouholetou expertizou na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch. Zam\u011b\u0159uje se na kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 trhy \u2013 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na akcie a dluhopisy, v\u011bnuje se hlavn\u011b bank\u00e1m a technologi\u00edm. Sou\u010dasn\u011b je rovn\u011b\u017e aktivn\u00ed v Prague Finance Institute. D\u0159\u00edve p\u016fsobil ve skupin\u011b Generali.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Americk\u00e9 akciov\u00e9 indexy jsou zp\u00e1tky na rekordech. Investory povzbudily v\u00fdsledky technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 rozpt\u00fdlily obavy ohledn\u011b pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed boomu…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":169535,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[412,891,67,68,212,808,246,7473,9482,1561,205,952],"class_list":["post-169534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-akcie","tag-amazon","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-donald-trump","tag-iran","tag-microsoft","tag-nasdaq","tag-prvni-valka-v-perskem-zalivu","tag-rekord","tag-ropa","tag-sp-500"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117043542601249333","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=169534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169534\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/169535"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=169534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=169534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=169534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}