{"id":170133,"date":"2026-08-06T05:42:19","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T05:42:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/170133\/"},"modified":"2026-08-06T05:42:19","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T05:42:19","slug":"akcie-jsou-drahe-ekonomika-zpomaluje-ktere-kontrolky-dnes-sviti-cervene","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/170133\/","title":{"rendered":"Akcie jsou drah\u00e9, ekonomika zpomaluje. Kter\u00e9 kontrolky dnes sv\u00edt\u00ed \u010derven\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ekonomika ochlazuje, recese ale zat\u00edm nehroz\u00ed. Firmy d\u00e1l vyd\u011bl\u00e1vaj\u00ed, akcie jsou ale podle valuac\u00ed drah\u00e9. Investo\u0159i znejist\u011bli – Fear & Greed Index ukazuje strach, ne v\u0161ak paniku. Podcast Ve vat\u011b pro\u0161el hlavn\u00ed ukazatele trhu. <\/p>\n

Sta\u010d\u00ed jedno \u010d\u00edslo o\u00a0inflaci a\u00a0akcie b\u011bhem p\u00e1r minut vysko\u010d\u00ed o\u00a0procento v\u00fd\u0161. O\u00a0t\u00fdden pozd\u011bji p\u0159ijdou data z\u00a0trhu pr\u00e1ce a\u00a0burzy padaj\u00ed. Jedni sleduj\u00ed v\u00fdnosovou k\u0159ivku, druz\u00ed index strachu. Na investory se ka\u017ed\u00fd den val\u00ed des\u00edtky graf\u016f a\u00a0statistik, kter\u00e9 \u00fadajn\u011b prozrad\u00ed, co ud\u011blaj\u00ed trhy.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 kouzeln\u00e1 tabulka, kter\u00e1 by investorovi uk\u00e1zala zelenou \u0161ipku \u201enakup\u201c nebo \u010dervenou \u201eut\u00edkej pry\u010d\u201c, neexistuje. Profesion\u00e1lov\u00e9 p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161lej\u00ed jinak. Je to podobn\u00e9 jako u\u00a0l\u00e9ka\u0159e, jeden v\u00fdsledek rozboru\u00a0krve s\u00e1m o\u00a0sob\u011b diagn\u00f3zu neur\u010d\u00ed. A\u017e kombinace v\u00edce ukazatel\u016f uk\u00e1\u017ee cel\u00fd obr\u00e1zek.<\/p>\n

\u201eJe to sp\u00ed\u0161 kompas, kter\u00fd n\u00e1m m\u016f\u017ee nazna\u010dit, jak\u00fd sm\u011br na trhu nastane nebo jak\u00e1 na n\u011bm je n\u00e1lada,\u201c vysv\u011btluje portfolio mana\u017eerka spole\u010dnosti EMUN Anna P\u00edchov\u00e1. Jak\u00fd obr\u00e1zek skl\u00e1daj\u00ed dne\u0161n\u00ed data? Podcast Ve vat\u011b pro\u0161el nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 ukazatele a\u00a0zji\u0161\u0165oval, co pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed o\u00a0kondici ekonomiky i\u00a0o cen\u00e1ch akci\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Foto: Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

P\u0159ij\u010fte se pod\u00edvat na nat\u00e1\u010den\u00ed podcastu Ve vat\u011b. Zveme na Letn\u00ed podcastovou sc\u00e9nu v\u00a0Praze-Troji. Hosty budou investor V\u00e1clav Dej\u010dmar a\u00a0ekonom Dominik Stroukal. Vstupenky na Letnipodcastovascena.cz.<\/p>\n

Recesi zat\u00edm nehl\u00e1s\u00ed. Ale ekonomika ztr\u00e1c\u00ed dech<\/p>\n

Jedn\u00edm z\u00a0nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00edch pomocn\u00edk\u016f investora je v\u00fdnosov\u00e1 k\u0159ivka americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f. Na prvn\u00ed pohled vypad\u00e1 nen\u00e1padn\u011b. Ukazuje, jak\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy nesou st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy s\u00a0r\u016fznou dobou splatnosti – od n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f a\u017e po t\u0159icet let. Investor si to m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edstavit jednodu\u0161e: st\u00e1t si p\u016fj\u010duje pen\u00edze na r\u016fzn\u011b dlouhou dobu a\u00a0investo\u0159i \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, kolik za takovou p\u016fj\u010dku cht\u011bj\u00ed dostat zaplaceno.<\/p>\n

Za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch okolnost\u00ed plat\u00ed jednoduch\u00e9 pravidlo: na \u010d\u00edm del\u0161\u00ed dobu st\u00e1tu p\u016fj\u010dujete pen\u00edze, t\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos chcete dostat. V\u00fdnosov\u00e1 k\u0159ivka proto b\u011b\u017en\u011b stoup\u00e1 vzh\u016fru.<\/p>\n

Ob\u010das se ale p\u0159evr\u00e1t\u00ed. Kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 dluhopisy za\u010dnou n\u00e9st vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos ne\u017e dlouhodob\u00e9. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tomu se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 inverzn\u00ed v\u00fdnosov\u00e1 k\u0159ivka a\u00a0historicky \u0161lo o\u00a0jeden z\u00a0nejspolehliv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch sign\u00e1l\u016f bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se recese.<\/p>\n

Foto: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

V\u00fdnosov\u00e1 k\u0159ivka americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f. Dnes recesi nenazna\u010duje. Na \u010d\u00edm del\u0161\u00ed dobu investo\u0159i st\u00e1tu p\u016fj\u010d\u00ed, t\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed po\u017eaduj\u00ed v\u00fdnos. <\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee ekonomika nen\u00ed stroj, kter\u00fd se \u0159\u00edd\u00ed jedn\u00edm tla\u010d\u00edtkem. A\u00a0posledn\u00ed roky uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee i\u00a0velmi spolehliv\u00e9 ukazatele mohou selhat.<\/p>\n

\u201eP\u00e1r let dozadu jsme tu m\u011bli p\u0159evr\u00e1cenou v\u00fdnosovou k\u0159ivku a\u00a0mnoz\u00ed z\u00a0toho usuzovali, \u017ee to je sign\u00e1l, \u017ee recese p\u0159ijde. Ale recese nakonec nedorazila,\u201c vzpom\u00edn\u00e1 P\u00edchov\u00e1. Velkou roli podle ekonom\u016f sehr\u00e1la vlna investic do um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence, kter\u00e1 americkou ekonomiku podr\u017eela d\u00e9le, ne\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina analytik\u016f \u010dekala.<\/p>\n

Ekonomika u\u017e nep\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 tolik, co d\u0159\u00edv<\/p>\n

Dnes u\u017e se v\u00fdnosov\u00e1 k\u0159ivka vrac\u00ed do b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho tvaru. \u201eAspo\u0148 podle tohoto indik\u00e1toru \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 riziko nehroz\u00ed,\u201c komentuje P\u00edchov\u00e1.\u00a0To ale neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee ekonomika jede na pln\u00fd plyn. U\u017e nep\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 tolik jako d\u0159\u00edv.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Stejn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek n\u00e1m pr\u00e1v\u011b nyn\u00ed vykazuje americk\u00fd Leading Economic Index (LEI). Slab\u0161\u00ed je d\u016fv\u011bra spot\u0159ebitel\u016f, v\u00fddaje dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed kol\u00edsaj\u00ed a\u00a0sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed i\u00a0z trhu pr\u00e1ce. \u201eJsme v\u00a0za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed f\u00e1zi zpomalen\u00ed. To neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159ijde okam\u017eit\u011b recese nebo \u017ee je recese nevyhnuteln\u00e1. Jen ekonomika ne\u0161lape tak, jak by mohla.\u201c<\/p>\n

LEI nesleduje jen to, co se u\u017e stalo, ale sna\u017e\u00ed se zachytit prvn\u00ed n\u00e1znaky zm\u011bny sm\u011bru. Kombinuje deset r\u016fzn\u00fdch sign\u00e1l\u016f\u00a0\u2013 nov\u00e9 objedn\u00e1vky firem, stavebn\u00ed povolen\u00ed, situaci na trhu pr\u00e1ce, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u016f, v\u00fdvoj akci\u00ed nebo rozd\u00edl mezi kr\u00e1tk\u00fdmi a\u00a0dlouh\u00fdmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami. <\/p>\n

Foto: The Conference Board, Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

Leading Economic Index (LEI) ukazuje, \u017ee ekonomika zpomaluje. <\/p>\n

Podobnou zpr\u00e1vu p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed i\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dasto sledovan\u00fd ukazatel, index n\u00e1kupn\u00edch mana\u017eer\u016f, neboli PMI (The Purchasing Managers‘ Index). Ten m\u00e1 jednu velkou v\u00fdhodu: pt\u00e1 se p\u0159\u00edmo firem, co se d\u011bje v\u00a0jejich byznysu pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f. Na rozd\u00edl od HDP, kter\u00e9 ekonomov\u00e9 znaj\u00ed a\u017e s\u00a0n\u011bkolikam\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm, vznik\u00e1 index ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc na z\u00e1klad\u011b dotazov\u00e1n\u00ed u\u00a0stovek firem.<\/p>\n

Mana\u017ee\u0159i odpov\u00eddaj\u00ed, zda p\u0159ib\u00fdv\u00e1 zak\u00e1zek, v\u00fdroby nebo zam\u011bstnanc\u016f. Hodnota nad 50\u00a0bod\u016f zna\u010d\u00ed r\u016fst ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity, pod 50\u00a0jej\u00ed \u00fatlum. Te\u010f index vys\u00edl\u00e1 pro Evropu sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly, hodn\u011b kol\u00eds\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Pro vyhodnocen\u00ed americk\u00e9 ekonomiky jsou kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 data z\u00a0trhu pr\u00e1ce. \u201eJ\u00e1 na n\u011b pravideln\u011b kouk\u00e1m, zat\u00edm to reces\u00ed nesmrd\u00ed,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 P\u00edchov\u00e1 a\u00a0doporu\u010duje sledovat hlavn\u011b to, zda propou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed \u010di naj\u00edmaj\u00ed firmy, ve\u00a0kter\u00fdch m\u00e1 \u010dlov\u011bk nainvestov\u00e1no.<\/p>\n

Nejsou akcie u\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 drah\u00e9?<\/p>\n

To, \u017ee ekonomika zat\u00edm nesm\u011b\u0159uje do recese, je\u0161t\u011b neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee je na trhu v\u0161echno v\u00a0po\u0159\u00e1dku. Pro investora toti\u017e existuj\u00ed dv\u011b r\u016fzn\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky: Jak se da\u0159\u00ed ekonomice? A\u00a0kolik za jej\u00ed budouc\u00ed r\u016fst u\u017e dnes plat\u00edme, neboli nejsou akcie p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 drah\u00e9?<\/p>\n

Odpov\u011b\u010f hledaj\u00ed pomoc\u00ed takzvan\u00fdch valuac\u00ed. Nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ukazatelem je P\/E (Price to Earnings), kter\u00fd \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, kolik jsou investo\u0159i ochotni zaplatit za jeden dolar zisku firmy.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad P\/E 25\u00a0znamen\u00e1, \u017ee investo\u0159i plat\u00ed 25\u00a0dolar\u016f za ka\u017ed\u00fd jeden dolar ro\u010dn\u00edho zisku na akcii. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed P\/E samo o\u00a0sob\u011b nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt probl\u00e9m. U\u00a0rychle rostouc\u00ed firmy m\u016f\u017ee d\u00e1vat smysl, proto\u017ee investo\u0159i v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee jej\u00ed zisky v\u00a0budoucnu v\u00fdrazn\u011b porostou. U\u00a0pomalu rostouc\u00ed firmy m\u016f\u017ee naopak znamenat, \u017ee je akcie drah\u00e1.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco P\/E \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, kolik investor plat\u00ed, dal\u0161\u00ed ukazatel n\u00e1vratnost kapit\u00e1lu, neboli ROE (Return on Equity), vysv\u011btluje, pro\u010d je n\u011bkdy ochoten zaplatit v\u00edc. ROE ukazuje, jak efektivn\u011b firma dok\u00e1\u017ee vyu\u017e\u00edt pen\u00edze sv\u00fdch akcion\u00e1\u0159\u016f a\u00a0p\u0159em\u011bnit je v\u00a0zisk. <\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad firma A\u00a0i firma B maj\u00ed vlastn\u00ed kapit\u00e1l jednu\u00a0miliardu korun. Firma A\u00a0z n\u011bj vytvo\u0159\u00ed zisk 300\u00a0milion\u016f korun, firma B jen 50\u00a0milion\u016f. Firma A\u00a0m\u00e1 tedy vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ROE\u00a0\u2013 um\u00ed l\u00e9pe pracovat s\u00a0kapit\u00e1lem, kter\u00fd j\u00ed investo\u0159i sv\u011b\u0159ili.<\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obr\u00e1zek podle P\u00edchov\u00e9 nab\u00edz\u00ed Shillerovo CAPE. Na rozd\u00edl od klasick\u00e9ho ukazatele nepracuje se zisky za posledn\u00ed rok, ale s\u00a0jejich desetilet\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdm o\u00a0inflaci. Jeden v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u011b dobr\u00fd nebo \u0161patn\u00fd rok proto tolik nerozhod\u00ed cel\u00fd obr\u00e1zek. <\/p>\n

A pr\u00e1v\u011b CAPE dnes vys\u00edl\u00e1 pom\u011brn\u011b jasn\u00fd sign\u00e1l. Jeho dlouhodob\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br se pohybuje kolem 16\u00a0a\u017e 17\u00a0bod\u016f, zat\u00edmco americk\u00fd akciov\u00fd trh je dnes v\u00fdrazn\u011b nad hranic\u00ed 30. \u201eIndikuje n\u00e1m to, \u017ee trhy jsou drah\u00e9,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Anna P\u00edchov\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Drah\u00fd akciov\u00fd trh ale automaticky neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee z\u00edtra spadne. M\u016f\u017ee z\u016fstat drah\u00fd je\u0161t\u011b roky. Znamen\u00e1 to hlavn\u011b, \u017ee o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 budouc\u00ed v\u00fdnosy mohou b\u00fdt ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v\u00a0dob\u00e1ch, kdy byly akcie dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Investo\u0159i se boj\u00ed<\/p>\n

Ekonomiku a\u00a0ceny akci\u00ed ale neur\u010duj\u00ed jen \u010d\u00edsla. Trhy \u010dasto h\u00fdbou i\u00a0emoce\u00a0\u2013 strach, chamtivost nebo obava, \u017ee investor n\u011bco prop\u00e1sne, neboli FOMO. Investo\u0159i n\u011bkdy neprod\u00e1vaj\u00ed proto, \u017ee se zhor\u0161ily v\u00fdsledky firem, ale proto, \u017ee se na trhu roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed panika. A\u00a0opa\u010dn\u011b\u00a0\u2013 nenakupuj\u00ed v\u017edy proto, \u017ee jsou akcie levn\u00e9, ale proto, \u017ee vid\u00ed ostatn\u00ed vyd\u011bl\u00e1vat. <\/p>\n

N\u00e1ladu investor\u016f se sna\u017e\u00ed m\u011b\u0159it nap\u0159\u00edklad zn\u00e1m\u00fd Fear & Greed Index, takov\u00fd barometr emoc\u00ed na trhu. Kombinuje sedm r\u016fzn\u00fdch ukazatel\u016f. Kdy\u017e ukazuje strach, znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee investo\u0159i jsou opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed a\u00a0hledaj\u00ed bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fato\u010di\u0161t\u011b. Kdy\u017e naopak p\u0159evl\u00e1d\u00e1 chamtivost, investo\u0159i v\u011b\u0159\u00ed v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst a\u00a0mohou p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eet rizika.<\/p>\n

Foto: CNN , Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

Fear & Greed Index ukazuje \u201estrach\u201c, zat\u00edm ale ne paniku investor\u016f. <\/p>\n

Dnes ukazuje ru\u010di\u010dka tachometru \u010derven\u011b. \u201eJsme ve strachu,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Anna P\u00edchov\u00e1. Podle n\u00ed ale nejde o\u00a0extr\u00e9mn\u00ed obavu, kter\u00e1 by signalizovala paniku a\u00a0plo\u0161n\u00fd v\u00fdprodej. \u201eA kdy\u017e se dostaneme do extr\u00e9mn\u00edho strachu, tak je to ta doba, kdy jdeme naopak nakupovat,\u201c vysv\u011btluje. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 n\u00e1lada tedy ukazuje sp\u00ed\u0161 na opatrnost investor\u016f ne\u017e na zn\u00e1mku hlubok\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f v\u00a0ekonomice.<\/p>\n

Ve vat\u011b<\/p>\n

Podcast novin\u00e1\u0159ky Mark\u00e9ty Bidrmanov\u00e9 a\u00a0jej\u00edch host\u016f. Poslechn\u011bte si rady zn\u00e1m\u00fdch investor\u016f a\u00a0odborn\u00edk\u016f na t\u00e9ma investic, inflace, \u00fav\u011br\u016f a\u00a0hypot\u00e9k. Finan\u010dn\u00ed \u201ek\u00e1p\u00e9zetka\u201c pro v\u0161echny, kter\u00fdm nejsou pen\u00edze ukraden\u00e9.<\/p>\n

P\u011btin\u00e1sobn\u00fd v\u00edt\u011bz ankety Podcast roku v\u00a0kategorii Byznys a\u00a0osobn\u00ed finance. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ekonomika ochlazuje, recese ale zat\u00edm nehroz\u00ed. Firmy d\u00e1l vyd\u011bl\u00e1vaj\u00ed, akcie jsou ale podle valuac\u00ed drah\u00e9. Investo\u0159i znejist\u011bli –…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":170134,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[14],"tags":[412,41740,79,1197,69,3098,15090,4130,12555,80],"class_list":["post-170133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-zabava","tag-akcie","tag-anna-pichova","tag-entertainment","tag-firmy","tag-investice","tag-predikce","tag-recese","tag-trhy","tag-ve-vate","tag-zabava"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117046971556586808","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=170133"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170133\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/170134"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=170133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=170133"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=170133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}