\u0161et\u0159en\u00ed agentury NMS<\/a> pro server Novinky.cz potvrdilo, \u017ee Babi\u0161 je pro Petra Pavla jedin\u00fdm relevantn\u00edm protikandid\u00e1tem. <\/p>\nH\u00e1zet p\u0159edem flintu do \u017eita nav\u00edc nen\u00ed v Babi\u0161ov\u011b povaze \u2013 neum\u00ed toti\u017e prohr\u00e1vat, jak s\u00e1m n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t nazna\u010dil. Nesnese por\u00e1\u017eku, chce m\u00edt v\u0161e pod kontrolou, v\u0161echno \u0159\u00eddit. Proto bude cht\u00edt vyhr\u00e1t i volby o Hrad.<\/p>\n
3. Zavr\u0161en\u00ed kari\u00e9ry<\/p>\n
Pro Babi\u0161e by \u0161lo \u2013 po vzoru V\u00e1clava Klause nebo Milo\u0161e Zemana \u2013 o ide\u00e1ln\u00ed zavr\u0161en\u00ed politick\u00e9 kari\u00e9ry. Takov\u00e1 my\u0161lenka je n\u011bco, co ho mus\u00ed skoro jist\u011b p\u0159itahovat. <\/p>\n
Pokud by nav\u00edc volby vyhr\u00e1l, prezidentem by se stal v necel\u00fdch t\u0159iasedmdes\u00e1ti letech. A pokud s p\u0159ib\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edm v\u011bkem lidem zpravidla ub\u00fdvaj\u00ed s\u00edly, ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s pozic\u00ed p\u0159edsedy vl\u00e1dy by mu mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159ece jen o n\u011bco m\u00e9n\u011b n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1 role prezidenta nakonec vyhovovala i z tohoto pohledu. <\/p>\n
4. Imunita<\/p>\n
Jsou tady ale i zcela praktick\u00e9 a strategick\u00e9 d\u016fvody. Andrej Babi\u0161 je kv\u016fli kauze \u010cap\u00ed hn\u00edzdo pod tlakem v tom smyslu, \u017ee pot\u0159ebuje imunitu. Co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee m\u00e1 extr\u00e9mn\u011b silnou motivaci z\u016fstat v politice co nejd\u00e9le \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 a\u017e do smrti. <\/p>\n
Prezidentsk\u00e1 volba pro n\u011bj m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt za trochu p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 konstelace optim\u00e1ln\u00ed zp\u016fsob, jak v politice z\u016fstat a zachovat si beztrestnost. <\/p>\n
5. Prohra jako v\u00fdhoda<\/p>\n
Boj o Hrad by pro n\u011bj ale mohl b\u00fdt nakonec v\u00fdhodou i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by ho prohr\u00e1l \u2013 byl by to strategick\u00fd tah, kter\u00fd by mu umo\u017enil p\u0159et\u00e1hnout na svou stranu \u010d\u00e1st voli\u010d\u016f SPD, Motorist\u016f a t\u0159eba i Sta\u010dilo!, kte\u0159\u00ed by pak jeho volbu mohli up\u0159ednostnit tak\u00e9 ve volb\u00e1ch sn\u011bmovn\u00edch. <\/p>\n
Co\u017e by zvy\u0161ovalo jeho \u0161ance na to, aby byl premi\u00e9rem i v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm volebn\u00edm obdob\u00ed. Ostatn\u011b pozice hnut\u00ed ANO je v \u010desk\u00e9 politice natolik dominantn\u00ed, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd politik mus\u00ed pracovat tak\u00e9 se sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em, \u017ee bez ANO nep\u016fjde sestavit ani p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed vl\u00e1da.<\/p>\n
Last minute rozhodnut\u00ed<\/p>\n
Politolog Lubom\u00edr Kope\u010dek z Fakulty soci\u00e1ln\u00edch studi\u00ed Masarykovy univerzity je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00fd, \u017ee Babi\u0161 do prezidentsk\u00e9 volby p\u016fjde pouze v situaci, kdy bude m\u00edt re\u00e1lnou \u0161anci na \u00fasp\u011bch. \u201eNen\u00ed d\u016fvod se domn\u00edvat, \u017ee by \u0161el do voleb p\u0159i vysok\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobnosti sv\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017eky,\u201c m\u00edn\u00ed.<\/p>\n
D\u016fvod je prost\u00fd. \u201eBabi\u0161ova prohra by pro image jeho i hnut\u00ed ANO nebyla dobr\u00e1 \u2013 zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b p\u0159i faktu, \u017ee by \u0161lo u\u017e o druhou takovou por\u00e1\u017eku,\u201c uva\u017euje Kope\u010dek. Podle n\u011bj to v danou chv\u00edli znamen\u00e1, \u017ee by muselo doj\u00edt k n\u011bjak\u00e9mu velk\u00e9mu po\u0161kozen\u00ed image a d\u016fv\u011bryhodnosti Petra Pavla.<\/p>\n
P\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b by se musel st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed prezident nakonec rozhodnout mand\u00e1t na Hrad\u011b neobhajovat. \u201eOboj\u00ed samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nen\u00ed vylou\u010den\u00e9, ale jev\u00ed se mi to v tuto chv\u00edli sp\u00ed\u0161e m\u00e9n\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 politolog v rozhovoru pro Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b.cz.<\/p>\n
Roli podle n\u011bj m\u016f\u017ee sehr\u00e1t tak\u00e9 obliba Andreje Babi\u0161e v \u010dase kon\u00e1n\u00ed prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb. A Kope\u010dek se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee se do n\u00ed nejsp\u00ed\u0161 bude prom\u00edtat i d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost jeho vl\u00e1dy.<\/p>\n
\u201eObvykl\u00e1 trajektorie p\u0159itom je, \u017ee vl\u00e1dy \u010dasto m\u00edvaj\u00ed nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru kolem poloviny volebn\u00edho cyklu, proto\u017ee na za\u010d\u00e1tku p\u016fsoben\u00ed d\u011blaj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e m\u00e9n\u011b popul\u00e1rn\u00ed kroky. Tak\u017ee term\u00edn prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb v lednu 2028 nen\u00ed z hlediska \u0161anc\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho premi\u00e9ra zrovna ide\u00e1ln\u00ed,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/p>\n
Do prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb je podle n\u011bj nicm\u00e9n\u011b je\u0161t\u011b po\u0159\u00e1d dost \u010dasu a rozhodnut\u00ed nekandidovat, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b naopak kandidovat, m\u016f\u017ee Andrej Babi\u0161 ud\u011blat a\u017e za v\u00edce ne\u017e rok. \u201eA podle m\u011b s t\u00edm asi nebude sp\u011bchat,\u201c je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00fd Kope\u010dek.<\/p>\n
\u201eJen p\u0159ipomenu, \u017ee p\u0159ed posledn\u00edmi volbami se Andrej Babi\u0161 rozhodl t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na posledn\u00ed chv\u00edli – na konci \u0159\u00edjna 2022. Nen\u00ed tedy vylou\u010deno, \u017ee se takov\u00e9 last minute rozhodnut\u00ed, zda kandidovat, nebo nekandidovat, m\u016f\u017ee zopakovat i p\u0159ed p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed volbou,\u201c uzav\u00edr\u00e1 politolog.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201eNebudu kandidovat na prezidenta. Co bych tam d\u011blal? Kdyby ov\u0161em ta zoufal\u00e1 opozice p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161lela \u2013 proto\u017ee Babi\u0161 st\u00e1le…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":173296,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[10],"tags":[266,955,17,21,16,213,7077,18,19,22,562,20],"class_list":["post-173295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-zpravy","tag-andrej-babis","tag-ano-2011","tag-headlines","tag-hlavni-udalosti","tag-news","tag-petr-pavel","tag-prezidentske-volby","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-udalosti-dne","tag-vlada-andreje-babise","tag-zpravy"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117063855885920926","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/173295","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=173295"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/173295\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/173296"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=173295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=173295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=173295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}