{"id":17727,"date":"2026-03-08T07:51:06","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T07:51:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/17727\/"},"modified":"2026-03-08T07:51:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T07:51:06","slug":"cash-only-trumpova-cla-prinesla-usa-miliardy-dolaru-porad-je-to-malo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/17727\/","title":{"rendered":"Cash Only: Trumpova cla p\u0159inesla USA miliardy dolar\u016f. Po\u0159\u00e1d je to m\u00e1lo"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"e_bK\">\u010ctete uk\u00e1zku z\u00a0newsletteru Cash Only, ve kter\u00e9m redakto\u0159i SZ Byznys ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u00e1tek komentuj\u00ed d\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9m byznysu. Pokud v\u00e1s Cash Only zaujal, <a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.seznamzpravy.cz\/clanek\/newslettery-seznam-zprav-142756\" class=\"e_m\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">p\u0159ihlaste se k\u00a0odb\u011bru<\/a> newsletteru.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Clo je v\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed da\u0148, kterou st\u00e1t uvaluje na obchod. Celn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmy americk\u00e9 feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dy v\u00a0lo\u0148sk\u00e9m fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce dos\u00e1hly 194,9\u00a0miliardy dolar\u016f. Je to meziro\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst o\u00a0146\u00a0procent. Tento dramatick\u00fd skok je d\u016fsledkem nov\u00e9 Trumpovy celn\u00ed politiky zaveden\u00e9 v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku 2025.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Zn\u00ed to jako velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo. Jen\u017ee v\u00a0kontextu feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu je to jen zlomek (meziro\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst je ze dvou procent rozpo\u010dtu na \u010dty\u0159i procenta), kter\u00fd nem\u016f\u017ee nijak zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 d\u00e1l vyr\u016fst. \u201eZ\u00e1klad dan\u011b pro cla jsou dovozy, kter\u00e9 tvo\u0159\u00ed jen asi 13\u00a0procent HDP. To je velmi mal\u00fd, a\u00a0nav\u00edc velmi elastick\u00fd z\u00e1klad. Jakmile ho zdan\u00edte, rychle se smrskne, proto\u017ee lid\u00e9 p\u0159estanou kupovat \u010d\u00e1st zbo\u017e\u00ed z\u00a0dovozu,\u201c upozor\u0148uje ekonomick\u00fd historik Douglas A. Irwin z\u00a0Petersonova Institutu pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed ekonomii. Nahradit da\u0148 z\u00a0p\u0159\u00edjmu celn\u00edmi v\u00fdnosy je proto matematick\u00e1 fikce.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Nav\u00edc je tu je\u0161t\u011b jeden nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fd detail: Cla nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u011b v\u00edc dopadaj\u00ed na chud\u0161\u00ed dom\u00e1cnosti, kter\u00e9 p\u0159irozen\u011b vyd\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f za zbo\u017e\u00ed (potraviny, oble\u010den\u00ed, spot\u0159ebi\u010de). Pro bohat\u00e9 tvo\u0159\u00ed tyto polo\u017eky jen malou \u010d\u00e1st v\u00fddaj\u016f (nakupuj\u00ed mnohem sp\u00ed\u0161 nap\u0159\u00edklad akcie). Jak\u00fdkoli v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159echod od progresivn\u00ed dan\u011b z\u00a0p\u0159\u00edjmu k\u00a0cl\u016fm by tedy p\u0159esouval da\u0148ovou z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e z\u00a0t\u011bch nejbohat\u0161\u00edch na nejzraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st populace.<\/p>\n<p>Twitterov\u00fd merkantilista<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Druh\u00fdm deklarovan\u00fdm c\u00edlem Donalda Trumpa bylo omezit obchodn\u00ed deficit. Amerika m\u00e1 dlouhodob\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u00fd schodek dovozu zbo\u017e\u00ed, zat\u00edmco naopak do sv\u011bta masivn\u011b vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed slu\u017eby firem jako Google, Microsoft \u010di Adobe a\u00a0m\u00e1 p\u0159ebytek. Logika zn\u00ed na prvn\u00ed pohled p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u011b, proto\u017ee kdy\u017e zdra\u017e\u00ed dovozy, lid\u00e9 p\u0159estanou kupovat zbo\u017e\u00ed z\u00a0\u010c\u00edny a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed a\u00a0deficit se sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed. Jen\u017ee to nen\u00ed tak jednoduch\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Firmy i\u00a0dom\u00e1cnosti p\u0159edv\u00eddaly dopady zaveden\u00ed cel a\u00a0v prvn\u00edm pololet\u00ed 2025\u00a0masivn\u011b navy\u0161ovaly z\u00e1soby, aby unikly zdra\u017een\u00ed. Deficit proto tehdy do\u010dasn\u011b klesl. Jen\u017ee v\u00a0celoro\u010dn\u00ed perspektiv\u011b obchodn\u00ed deficit USA v\u00a0oblasti zbo\u017e\u00ed za rok 2025\u00a0vzrostl na rekordn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 1,24\u00a0bilionu dolar\u016f, a\u00a0to v\u00a0d\u016fsledku 4,3% n\u00e1r\u016fstu dovozu. Cla tedy obchodn\u00ed deficit zat\u00edm nesn\u00ed\u017eila.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Americk\u00fd obchodn\u00ed schodek toti\u017e nevznik\u00e1 proto, \u017ee by Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty m\u011bly \u0161patn\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed dohody, jak tvrd\u00ed Trump. P\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou je, \u017ee USA maj\u00ed velk\u00fd fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit a\u00a0do zem\u011b proud\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed kapit\u00e1l. Celn\u00ed politika tyto makroekonomick\u00e9 s\u00edly jednodu\u0161e nedok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159ekonat.<\/p>\n<p>St\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det USA<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">V rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9m roce 2025\u00a0\u010dinily celkov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy 7,01\u00a0bilionu dolar\u016f a\u00a0celkov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy 5,23\u00a0bilionu dolar\u016f, co\u017e vedlo k\u00a0deficitu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 1,78\u00a0bilionu dolar\u016f. Pro zaj\u00edmavost, \u010dist\u00e9 platby na obsluhu americk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu v\u00a0rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9m roce 2025\u00a0\u010dinily p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 970\u00a0miliard dolar\u016f, co\u017e je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 trojn\u00e1sobek oproti roku 2020\u00a0a\u00a0p\u0159edstavuje asi 3,1\u00a0% HDP. Tyto n\u00e1klady p\u0159ev\u00fd\u0161ily v\u00fddaje na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed obranu (917\u00a0miliard dolar\u016f), Medicaid a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 feder\u00e1ln\u00ed programy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">T\u0159et\u00ed a\u00a0politicky nejcitliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed c\u00edl je obnova pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby a\u00a0pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst v\u00a0USA, kterou se Trumpovi nepoda\u0159ilo realizovat. Od tzv. Liberation Day v\u00a0dubnu lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku americk\u00e1 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba navzdory cl\u016fm stagnovala. Meziro\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst \u010dinil jen necel\u00e9ho p\u016fl procenta.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Trump si podle historika Irwina st\u00e1le p\u0159edstavuje tov\u00e1rnu jako m\u00edsto, kde zpocen\u00ed d\u011bln\u00edci dlouh\u00fdmi ty\u010demi posunuj\u00ed roz\u017ehaven\u00e9 odlitky. Modern\u00ed americk\u00e1 ocel\u00e1rna je v\u0161ak vysoce automatizovan\u00e1: Jsou to sp\u00ed\u0161 pr\u00e1zdn\u00e9 haly pln\u00e9 robot\u016f, kter\u00e9 obsluhuje u\u00a0\u0159\u00eddic\u00edch panel\u016f p\u00e1r in\u017een\u00fdr\u016f s\u00a0doktor\u00e1tem.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Kdy\u017e cla zdra\u017e\u00ed vstupn\u00ed suroviny na v\u00fdrobu oceli, zaplat\u00ed za to ve vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cen\u00e1ch nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed odb\u011bratel\u00e9 oceli, nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00fdrobce stroj\u016f John Deere \u010di automobilka General Motors. Americk\u00e9 firmy jsou najednou m\u00e9n\u011b konkurenceschopn\u00e9, proto\u017ee jejich dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed stoje chce m\u00e9n\u011b lid\u00ed. Mnoho firem tak v\u00fdrobu neroz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ilo, proto\u017ee se jim zv\u00fd\u0161ily n\u00e1klady.<\/p>\n<p>Politick\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">\u010ctvrt\u00fd Trump\u016fv argument, tedy \u017ee cla jsou p\u00e1ka pro dosa\u017een\u00ed f\u00e9rov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch obchodn\u00edch podm\u00ednek, vypad\u00e1 na pap\u00ed\u0159e nejl\u00e9pe. V\u00a0praxi je ale v\u00fdsledek velmi skromn\u00fd. Dohody s\u00a0Velkou Brit\u00e1ni\u00ed, Vietnamem a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edmi st\u00e1ty prezentoval prezident jako historick\u00fd pr\u016flom. V\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b se ale jedn\u00e1 jen o\u00a0r\u00e1mcov\u00e9 dokumenty, kter\u00e9 nemus\u00ed m\u00edt v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dopad.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">USA nav\u00edc uvalily cla i\u00a0na zem\u011b, s\u00a0nimi\u017e maj\u00ed platn\u00e9 dohody o\u00a0voln\u00e9m obchodu a\u00a0reciprocita byla tedy d\u00e1vno sjedn\u00e1na. V\u00fdsledkem obchodn\u00edch v\u00e1lek je, \u017ee Braz\u00edlie dnes vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed do \u010c\u00edny v\u00edc s\u00f3ji ne\u017e tradi\u010dn\u00ed dodavatel\u00e9 z\u00a0\u0159ad americk\u00fdch farm\u00e1\u0159\u016f. Kanada hled\u00e1 nov\u00e9 trhy a\u00a0britsk\u00fd \u010di n\u011bmeck\u00fd premi\u00e9r nav\u0161t\u011bvuj\u00ed Peking, aby dohodli nov\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed vztahy.<\/p>\n<p>Teorie mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho obchodu<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Modern\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1 teorie by mohla Trumpovi \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b d\u00e1t za pravdu, ale jen teoreticky. Nobelist\u00e9 Abhijit Banerjee a\u00a0Esther Duflo zkoumali p\u016fvod my\u0161lenek o\u00a0mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm obchodu od po\u010d\u00e1tk\u016f u\u00a0Davida Ricarda a\u017e po posledn\u00ed projevy v\u00a0podob\u011b Trumpov\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch cel. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b empirick\u00fdch studi\u00ed doch\u00e1zej\u00ed k\u00a0neintuitivn\u00edmu z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee p\u0159\u00ednosy mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho obchodu nejsou pro velk\u00e9 ekonomiky typu USA \u010di st\u00e1t\u016f z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropy se siln\u00fdm vnit\u0159n\u00edm trhem zdaleka takov\u00e9, jak se obecn\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b USA se pohybuj\u00ed v\u00a0n\u00edzk\u00fdch jednotk\u00e1ch procent HDP ro\u010dn\u011b. Znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee kdyby Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty p\u0159estaly najednou dov\u00e1\u017eet ve\u0161ker\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed, ekonomice by to umazalo nap\u0159\u00edklad \u201ejen\u201c jeden rok r\u016fstu HDP. (Banerjee a\u00a0Duflo se nezab\u00fdvaj\u00ed historick\u00fdm v\u00fdvojem, kdy mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed obchod p\u0159isp\u011bl ke zbohatnut\u00ed USA a\u00a0z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f v\u00a0neb\u00fdval\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e, ale sou\u010dasnou situac\u00ed.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Probl\u00e9m je v\u00a0tom, \u017ee \u0159ada dovoz\u016f je kritick\u00fdch pro v\u00fdrobu dal\u0161\u00edch produkt\u016f. Vid\u011bli jsme to na p\u0159\u00edkladu vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin, na kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 monopol \u010c\u00edna, a\u00a0staly se proto n\u00e1strojem tvrd\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Kdy\u017e tyto kritick\u00e9 dovozy vypadnou, ochrom\u00ed se nar\u00e1z v\u00fdroba cel\u00e9ho odv\u011btv\u00ed, nap\u0159\u00edklad automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Trumpova celn\u00ed politika ned\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl jako ekonomick\u00e1 strategie. Vyjad\u0159uje mnohem v\u00edc Trump\u016fv n\u00e1zor na fungov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u011bta. Trump pova\u017euje obchod za \u0161patnou v\u011bc. \u201eDovozy se v\u00a0jeho logice rovnaj\u00ed ztr\u00e1t\u011b pen\u011bz. Pokud dovozy klesaj\u00ed, i\u00a0kdy\u017e ceny rostou, je to dob\u0159e, proto\u017ee neutr\u00e1c\u00edme za zbo\u017e\u00ed z\u00a0ciziny,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Irwin na sv\u00e9 <a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=rGafYjEqWWs\" class=\"e_m\">p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ce<\/a> na Duke Univerzity.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Je to merkantilismus 18.\u00a0stolet\u00ed v\u00a0p\u0159estrojen\u00ed twitterov\u00e9 \u00e9ry. Merkantilismus m\u011bl za c\u00edl vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoz ne\u017e dovoz, aby st\u00e1t z\u00edsk\u00e1val co nejv\u00edc zlat\u00fdch z\u00e1sob (bylo to obdob\u00ed, kdy byly m\u011bny kryt\u00e9 zlatem). Trump je p\u0159es v\u0161echny proklamace o\u00a0tvorb\u011b nov\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00fd, \u017ee mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed obchod je pro Ameriku nev\u00fdhodn\u00fd. Cla jsou pak logick\u00fdm d\u016fsledkem tohoto n\u00e1zoru a\u00a0Trumpovi v\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b nevad\u00ed, \u017ee nep\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed k\u00fd\u017een\u00e9 efekty.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Trumpova cla tedy splnila sv\u016fj \u00fa\u010del jen v\u00a0jednom ohledu. Je to politick\u00fd sign\u00e1l jeho voli\u010d\u016fm. Do americk\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu opravdu p\u0159inesla miliardy dolar\u016f, ale v\u00a0pom\u011bru k\u00a0feder\u00e1ln\u00edm v\u00fddaj\u016fm jde o\u00a0velmi malou \u010d\u00e1stku. Obchodn\u00ed deficit nesn\u00ed\u017eila. Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 pracovn\u00ed m\u00edsta neobnovila. \u201eLep\u0161\u00ed obchodn\u00ed dohody\u201c jsou tak\u00e9 z\u00a0velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti jen proklamace.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Kdybychom cht\u011bli b\u00fdt ironi\u010dt\u00ed, m\u016f\u017eeme \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee cla zvy\u0161uj\u00ed ceny, zpomaluj\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst, sni\u017euj\u00ed firm\u00e1m zisky, zvy\u0161uj\u00ed nezam\u011bstnanost, prohlubuj\u00ed nerovnosti a\u00a0stup\u0148uj\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed. Krom\u011b toho jsou ale \u00fapln\u011b v\u00a0po\u0159\u00e1dku.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e_bK\">Zaj\u00edmaj\u00ed v\u00e1s akciov\u00e9 trhy, energetika nebo pl\u00e1ny \u010desk\u00fdch podnikatel\u016f? <a data-dot=\"atm-link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.seznamzpravy.cz\/clanek\/newslettery-seznam-zprav-142756\" class=\"e_m\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">P\u0159ihlaste se k\u00a0odb\u011bru Cash Only<\/a> a\u00a0kompletn\u00ed newsletter budete ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u00e1tek dost\u00e1vat do sv\u00e9 schr\u00e1nky.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u010ctete uk\u00e1zku z\u00a0newsletteru Cash Only, ve kter\u00e9m redakto\u0159i SZ Byznys ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u00e1tek komentuj\u00ed d\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9m byznysu. Pokud v\u00e1s&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17728,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[3243,1594,2736,212,8535,54,6744,53,52],"class_list":{"0":"post-17727","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-cash-only","9":"tag-celni-poplatky-clo","10":"tag-celni-valka","11":"tag-donald-trump","12":"tag-dovoz","13":"tag-svet","14":"tag-tarif","15":"tag-world","16":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116192469471274708","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17727","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17727"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17727\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17728"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17727"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17727"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17727"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}