![\"Nepr\u00e1vem](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/7398--kaplan-tit.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nMUST, kter\u00e1 je\u00a0zpravodajskou slu\u017ebou\u00a0\u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil, v\u00a0dokumentu ozna\u010duje\u00a0Rusko za\u00a0hlavn\u00ed vojenskou hrozbu pro \u0160v\u00e9dsko a\u00a0NATO\u00a0a uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee\u00a0\u00farove\u0148 hrozby m\u00e1 d\u00e1le r\u016fst. \u0158editel slu\u017eby\u00a0Thomas Nilsson\u00a0v t\u00e9to souvislosti uvedl, \u017ee rizika se\u00a0mohou zvy\u0161ovat a\u00a0situace se\u00a0podle n\u011bj st\u00e1v\u00e1 napjat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Zpr\u00e1va z\u00e1rove\u0148 p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed konkr\u00e9tn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed formulace ne\u017e v\u00a0minul\u00fdch letech. Analytici upozor\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee leto\u0161n\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed je\u00a0specifi\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u00a0a odkazuje na\u00a0existenci\u00a0rusk\u00e9ho opera\u010dn\u00edho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n
T\u0159i \u010dasov\u00e9 horizonty: kr\u00e1tk\u00fd, st\u0159edn\u00ed a\u00a0dlouh\u00fd<\/p>\n
MUST v\u00a0hodnocen\u00ed rozli\u0161uje\u00a0t\u0159i \u010dasov\u00e9 r\u00e1mce\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje \u2013 kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd, st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fd a\u00a0dlouhodob\u00fd. Ka\u017ed\u00fd z\u00a0nich popisuje jin\u00fd typ rizika a\u00a0rozsah potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch operac\u00ed.<\/p>\n
0\u201312 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f: Mo\u017en\u00e9 omezen\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 \u00fatoky<\/p>\n
V nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00ed \u2013\u00a0b\u011bhem 0\u00a0a\u017e 12\u00a0m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f\u00a0\u2013 pova\u017euje MUST za\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e9 riziko\u00a0limitovan\u00e9ho ozbrojen\u00e9ho \u00fatoku. Slu\u017eba p\u0159itom v\u00fdslovn\u011b uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee by\u00a0mohlo j\u00edt o\u00a0\u00fadery na\u00a0jednotliv\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed nebo jednotky.<\/p>\n
Pr\u00e1v\u011b tato \u010d\u00e1st hodnocen\u00ed pat\u0159\u00ed k\u00a0nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm: nejde o\u00a0obecn\u00e9 konstatov\u00e1n\u00ed, ale o\u00a0konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd se\u00a0zam\u011b\u0159uje na\u00a0vybran\u00e9 c\u00edle a\u00a0omezen\u00fd rozsah z\u00e1sahu.<\/p>\n
3\u20135 let: Schopnost v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch operac\u00ed, vzdu\u0161n\u00e1 p\u0159evaha \u010di n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1da<\/p>\n
Ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m horizontu\u00a0t\u0159\u00ed a\u017e p\u011bti let\u00a0zpr\u00e1va p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed, \u017ee by\u00a0Rusko mohlo\u00a0vybudovat schopnosti pro rozs\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed operace. MUST zmi\u0148uje nap\u0159\u00edklad mo\u017enost dos\u00e1hnout\u00a0lok\u00e1ln\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 p\u0159evahy\u00a0nebo uplatnit tlak prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm\u00a0n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1dy.<\/p>\n
Jde tedy o\u00a0sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 by\u00a0vy\u017eadovaly vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 koordinace, logistiky a\u00a0opera\u010dn\u00ed kapacity ne\u017e kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 omezen\u00e9 \u00fadery.<\/p>\n
5\u201310 let: \u0160ir\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 a\u00a0kontrola \u00fazem\u00ed<\/p>\n
V dlouhodob\u00e9m v\u00fdhledu\u00a0p\u011bti a\u017e deseti let\u00a0MUST zmi\u0148uje mo\u017enost\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 kampan\u011b, v\u010detn\u011b sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, v\u00a0n\u011bm\u017e by\u00a0mohlo doj\u00edt ke\u00a0kontrole nad v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi teritorii.<\/p>\n
Tento r\u00e1mec p\u0159edstavuje nejz\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed variantu, kter\u00e1 by\u00a0p\u0159esahovala izolovan\u00e9 \u00fatoky \u010di region\u00e1ln\u011b omezen\u00e9 operace a\u00a0znamenala by\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 ambice.<\/p>\n
Nejen konven\u010dn\u00ed hrozby: Hybridn\u00ed aktivity, sabot\u00e1\u017e a\u00a0\u201en\u00edzk\u00fd pr\u00e1h\u201c s\u00edly<\/p>\n
Zpr\u00e1va sou\u010dasn\u011b upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee rizika se\u00a0net\u00fdkaj\u00ed pouze konven\u010dn\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed. MUST varuje tak\u00e9 p\u0159ed\u00a0hybridn\u00edmi aktivitami a\u00a0sabot\u00e1\u017en\u00edmi akcemi. Dokument z\u00e1rove\u0148 zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, co\u00a0slu\u017eba popisuje jako\u00a0n\u00edzk\u00fd pr\u00e1h pro pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly.<\/p>\n
Tento prvek nazna\u010duje, \u017ee tlak m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt v\u00edce podob \u2013 od\u00a0skryt\u00fdch operac\u00ed a\u017e po\u00a0omezen\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1sahy \u2013 a\u00a0nemus\u00ed nutn\u011b za\u010d\u00ednat otev\u0159en\u00fdm konfliktem velk\u00e9ho rozsahu.<\/p>\n
D\u016fraz na\u00a0odstra\u0161en\u00ed a\u00a0tempo p\u0159ezbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/p>\n
Veden\u00ed MUST ve\u00a0zpr\u00e1v\u011b akcentuje v\u00fdznam\u00a0odstra\u0161en\u00ed\u00a0a vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 k\u00a0tomu, aby se\u00a0p\u0159ehodnotilo tempo \u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00e9ho p\u0159ezbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed. V\u00a0kontextu popsan\u00fdch \u010dasov\u00fdch horizont\u016f je\u00a0to jeden z\u00a0kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch praktick\u00fdch z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f: pokud riziko roste u\u017e v\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edm roce, rychlost p\u0159\u00edprav a\u00a0posilov\u00e1n\u00ed schopnost\u00ed se\u00a0st\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00e1sadn\u00edm parametrem.<\/p>\n
Zdroj: Autorsk\u00fd text \u0160imona Koudelky<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u0160v\u00e9dsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 zpravodajsk\u00e1 a\u00a0bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slu\u017eba\u00a0MUST\u00a0ve sv\u00e9 v\u00fdro\u010dn\u00ed zpr\u00e1v\u011b varuje p\u0159ed\u00a0rostouc\u00ed vojenskou hrozbou ze\u00a0strany Ruska v\u00a0horizontu p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 12\u00a0m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Podle…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1781,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[1762,1764,1761,1768,1766,1763,1758,1765,1756,61,1755,54,1759,1760,1757,1767,53,52],"class_list":{"0":"post-1780","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-1762","9":"tag-co","10":"tag-do","11":"tag-hre","12":"tag-je","13":"tag-mesicu","14":"tag-muze","15":"tag-presne","16":"tag-rozvedka","17":"tag-rusko","18":"tag-svedska","19":"tag-svet","20":"tag-uderit","21":"tag-uz","22":"tag-varuje","23":"tag-ve","24":"tag-world","25":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1780"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1780\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1781"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"image-3\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-3.jpg\")
<\/a>Foto: Ru\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci bojuj\u00edc\u00ed na\u00a0Ukrajin\u011b (ilustra\u010dn\u00ed foto) | Adobe Stock<\/p>\n