{"id":179151,"date":"2026-08-14T09:22:18","date_gmt":"2026-08-14T09:22:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/179151\/"},"modified":"2026-08-14T09:22:18","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T09:22:18","slug":"151-let-historickych-zkusenosti-a-80-pravdepodobnost-rustu-trhu-v-nasledujicich-letech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/179151\/","title":{"rendered":"151 let historick\u00fdch zku\u0161enost\u00ed a 80% pravd\u011bpodobnost r\u016fstu trhu v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch letech"},"content":{"rendered":"

Siln\u00e1 ziskovost americk\u00fdch obchodovan\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed je ji\u017e n\u011bjak\u00fd \u010das pova\u017eov\u00e1na za jednoho z hlavn\u00edch, ne-li za hlavn\u00edho tahouna trhu. Je to t\u00e9ma, kter\u00e9mu se \u010dasto v\u011bnuju i j\u00e1. V\u010detn\u011b toho, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e9 zisky jsou znateln\u011b nad t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 stolet\u00fdm trendem jejich r\u016fstu. A od um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence se samoz\u0159ejm\u011b \u010dek\u00e1 jejich dal\u0161\u00ed boom. Dnes bych se r\u00e1d s v\u00e1mi pod\u00edval na to, co zisky historicky s trhem d\u011blaj\u00ed, a co ne. K tomu mal\u00fd dodatek k jednomu z p\u0159edchoz\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f, kde jsme hovo\u0159ili o korpor\u00e1tn\u00edch rizikov\u00fdch spreadech.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj zisk\u016f a v\u00fdvoj cel\u00e9ho trhu: RIA Advisors v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm grafu nezvykle a\u017e objevn\u011b prezentuje historick\u00e1 data z posledn\u00edch 151 let t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno toho, co v dan\u00e9m roce d\u011blaly zisky a co ceny akci\u00ed: Zisky na akcii, tedy EPS, rostly v 59 % p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f, ve 41 % tedy klesly. Pokud rostly (prvn\u00ed skupina), v 79 % p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f rostl cel\u00fd akciov\u00fd trh, ve 21 % p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f ale klesl. Rostouc\u00ed ziskovost tedy nen\u00ed z\u00e1rukou, \u017ee nahoru p\u016fjde i trh. Ale pravd\u011bpodobnost to zvy\u0161uje, proto\u017ee kdy\u017e zisky klesaly, trh rostl \u201ejen\u201c v 66 % p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f. D\u00e1 se to ale \u0159\u00edci i tak, \u017ee pokles ziskovosti st\u00e1le p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed jen asi t\u0159etinovou pravd\u011bpodobnost poklesu cel\u00e9ho trhu.<\/p>\n

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Zdroj: X<\/p>\n

Cel\u00fd uveden\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh pak znamen\u00e1, \u017ee za posledn\u00edch 151 let trh v 74 % p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f rostl a ve 26 % klesl. K tomu dod\u00e1m, \u017ee o mo\u017enosti recese v cel\u00e9 ekonomice se nyn\u00ed v podstat\u011b nemluv\u00ed, co\u017e je za posledn\u00ed \u0159adu let docela v\u00fdjimka. Recese ziskov\u00e1 by m\u011bla b\u00fdt minim\u00e1ln\u011b podle \u201ekonsenzu\u201c snad je\u0161t\u011b men\u0161\u00ed. Ned\u00e1vno jsem tu nap\u0159\u00edklad psal, \u017ee pro n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch 5 let se \u010dek\u00e1 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst zisk\u016f obchodovan\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161i historicky naprosto ojedin\u011bl\u00fdch 25 %. <\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 nikdy v minulosti tak zisky podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nebyly tak daleko od recese, jako nyn\u00ed. Sv\u00e9 by tu m\u011bla podle p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed samoz\u0159ejm\u011b u\u010dinit um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence, od n\u00ed\u017e se \u010dek\u00e1 mohutn\u00fd r\u016fst produktivity a asi nejen j\u00ed. Podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed bychom se tedy v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch letech m\u011bli pohybovat velmi pevn\u011b v horn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti grafu. Nazna\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost r\u016fstu americk\u00e9ho akciov\u00e9ho trhu u 80 %. <\/p>\n

Rizikov\u00e9 spready: Na trz\u00edch roste popt\u00e1vka po \u201enov\u00fdch pen\u011bz\u00edch\u201c \u2013 s vysok\u00fdmi investicemi n\u011bkter\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed roste nab\u00eddka jejich nov\u00fdch akci\u00ed a dluhopis\u016f. Ned\u00e1vno jsem zde i v t\u00e9to souvislosti ukazoval, \u017ee na rizikov\u00fdch spreadech korpor\u00e1tn\u00edch obligac\u00ed se to zat\u00edm moc neprojevuje. P\u0159esn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno na dluhopisech s velk\u00fdm rizikem. Dnes se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed graf, kter\u00fd ukazuje spready u dluhopis\u016f v investi\u010dn\u00edm ratingem (v t\u00e9 kvalitn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti trhu). V tomto grafu se n\u011bco d\u011bje, zejm\u00e9na u dluhopis\u016f technologick\u00fdch firem. Jsme nad standardem posledn\u00edho roku a p\u016fl, ale nejde o nov\u00e9 extr\u00e9my:<\/p>\n

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Zdroj: X<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Siln\u00e1 ziskovost americk\u00fdch obchodovan\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed je ji\u017e n\u011bjak\u00fd \u010das pova\u017eov\u00e1na za jednoho z hlavn\u00edch, ne-li za hlavn\u00edho tahouna…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":179152,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[42941,42943,67,68,42942,3652,42946,42945,42944,39504,29178,13785],"class_list":["post-179151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-42941","tag-42943","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-historickych","tag-let","tag-letech","tag-nasledujicich","tag-pravdepodobnost","tag-rustu","tag-trhu","tag-zkusenosti"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117093134898474220","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179151","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=179151"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179151\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/179152"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=179151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=179151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=179151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}