anal\u00fdzy GSMA Intelligence<\/a>\u00a0p\u0159ipad\u00e1 na p\u0159enosovou infrastrukturu 9 a\u017e 12 miliard eur a\u00a0na pevn\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b dal\u0161\u00edch zhruba p\u011bt miliard. Dohromady tedy v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u00edce, ne\u017e kolik \u010din\u00ed cel\u00fd odhad Komise.\u00a0<\/p>\nKolik to podle oper\u00e1tor\u016f stoj\u00ed<\/p>\n
Studii GSMA Intelligence\u00a0si objednalo sedm oper\u00e1torsk\u00fdch skupin \u2013 Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telef\u00f3nica, Vodafone, Fastweb, MEO a\u00a0United Group. Ty si\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 pro\u0161ly vlastn\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b, kter\u00e9\u00a0pokr\u00fdvaj\u00ed 258 z\u00a0588 milion\u016f mobiln\u00edch p\u0159ipojen\u00ed v\u00a0EU. V\u00fdsledek nahrazen\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch technologi\u00ed je p\u0159itom zcela jin\u00fd, ne\u017e co \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Komise. Podle oper\u00e1tor\u016f by finan\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1ro\u010dnost dos\u00e1hla\u00a030 a\u017e 40 miliard eur. Z\u00a0toho 19 miliard p\u0159ipad\u00e1 na mobiln\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b, 11 miliard na p\u0159enosovou vrstvu a\u00a0p\u011bt na pevn\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Studie tak\u00e9 zmapovala, koho se probl\u00e9m v\u00fdm\u011bny \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed\u00a0t\u00fdk\u00e1. Mezi zkouman\u00fdmi skupinami spustilo za posledn\u00edch deset let s\u00ed\u0165 s\u00a0\u010d\u00ednskou technikou 71 procent oper\u00e1tor\u016f, mezi ostatn\u00edmi 51 procent. U\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch 95 milion\u016f p\u0159ipojen\u00ed nejsou o\u00a0dodavateli ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 \u00fadaje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9. Zhruba polovina evropsk\u00e9ho trhu tedy tuto techniku n\u011bkde m\u00e1.<\/p>\n
Trh po z\u00e1sahu: dv\u011b firmy na p\u011btadevades\u00e1ti procentech<\/p>\n
Nejtvrd\u0161\u00ed zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed se ov\u0161em net\u00fdk\u00e1 n\u00e1klad\u016f, n\u00fdbr\u017e toho, jak bude trh vypadat po navrhovan\u00e9 regulaci. V\u00a0mobiln\u00edm segmentu dr\u017e\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed Huawei pod\u00edl 25 procent a\u00a0ZTE sedm. Ericsson jich m\u00e1 ale 40 \u2013 tedy v\u00edc ne\u017e ob\u011b \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 firmy dohromady. \u0158e\u010d o\u00a0\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 dominanci nad evropsk\u00fdmi mobiln\u00edmi s\u00edt\u011bmi tak neodpov\u00edd\u00e1 dat\u016fm. Po vy\u0159azen\u00ed by Ericsson vysko\u010dil na 58,8 procenta a\u00a0Nokia z\u00a025 na 36,8 \u2013 dv\u011b firmy by tak ovl\u00e1dly p\u011btadevades\u00e1t procent trhu.<\/p>\n
U\u00a0pevn\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed by pak Nokia stoupla ze 30 na 49,6 procenta, u\u00a0p\u0159enosov\u00fdch z\u00a022,5 na 31 a\u00a0Ciena ze 17,5 na 24,1 %. Index koncentrace HHI, kter\u00fdm Komise sama pom\u011b\u0159uje f\u00faze, by v\u00a0mobiln\u00edm segmentu stoupl z\u00a02\u00a0901 na 4\u00a0816 bod\u016f, u\u00a0pevn\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed z\u00a01\u00a0947 na 3\u00a0043. Kdyby takovou koncentraci p\u0159inesla ohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e1 f\u00faze, tat\u00e1\u017e Komise by ji s\u00a0vysokou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed zablokovala.<\/p>\n
Ceny za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed: \u010dtvrtina nahoru<\/p>\n
Koncentrace m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 n\u00e1sledky. Studie odhaduje n\u00e1sledn\u00fd\u00a0r\u016fst cen za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed o\u00a024 procent v\u00a0mobiln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch, 19 u\u00a0pevn\u00fdch a\u00a010 u\u00a0p\u0159enosov\u00fdch. Ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, kdy uvoln\u011bn\u00fd pod\u00edl spolkne nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010d, mluv\u00ed o\u00a043 procentech v\u00a0mobilu a\u00a045 u\u00a0pevn\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed. Jde o\u00a0indikativn\u00ed propo\u010det n\u00e1strojem, kter\u00fd se b\u011b\u017en\u011b pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 p\u0159i posuzov\u00e1n\u00ed f\u00faz\u00ed, ne o\u00a0p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dtenky. Vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed pozice oper\u00e1tor\u016f proti pouh\u00fdm\u00a0dv\u011bma dodavatel\u016fm ale ned\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u016fvod k\u00a0optimismu \u2013 a\u00a0Komise se touto ot\u00e1zkou ve sv\u00e9m materi\u00e1lu nezab\u00fdv\u00e1 v\u016fbec.<\/p>\n
Pro\u010d to zaplat\u00ed lid\u00e9<\/p>\n
Nej\u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zkratka debaty zn\u00ed, \u017ee jen zdra\u017e\u00ed tarify. Studie GSMA Alliance v\u0161ak\u00a0tvrd\u00ed n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho a\u00a0nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho: zdra\u017eit prakticky nep\u016fjde. Evropsk\u00fd trh je cenov\u011b natolik konkuren\u010dn\u00ed a\u00a0v\u00fdnos na z\u00e1kazn\u00edka natolik klesaj\u00edc\u00ed, \u017ee prostor pro prom\u00edtnut\u00ed n\u00e1kladu do koncov\u00fdch cen podle n\u00ed nen\u00ed. Zku\u0161enost odjinud je p\u0159itom takov\u00e1, \u017ee podobn\u00e9 n\u00e1kladov\u00e9 \u0161oky se do cen nebo do kvality slu\u017eby prom\u00edtaj\u00ed z\u00a0osmdes\u00e1ti a\u017e sta procent.<\/p>\n
A\u00a0pr\u00e1v\u011b tady je j\u00e1dro v\u011bci. Kdy\u017e nelze zvednout ceny, sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed se investice. Oper\u00e1to\u0159i pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed na roky 2027 a\u017e 2030 investice do aktivn\u00edch prvk\u016f s\u00edt\u011b ve v\u00fd\u0161i necel\u00fdch 42 miliard eur. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny k\u00a0tomu p\u0159idaj\u00ed 8,5 miliardy, do roku 2035 zhruba 24 miliard. V\u00fdsledkem bude podle studie ru\u0161en\u00ed a\u00a0odkl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed projekt\u016f tam, kde se n\u00e1vratnost p\u0159i o\u00a0\u010dtvrtinu dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed technice propadne pod nulu.<\/p>\n
P\u0159elo\u017eeno do b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 \u0159e\u010di by regulace Komise mohla podle anal\u00fdzy GSMA znamenat\u00a0pomalej\u0161\u00ed nasazov\u00e1n\u00ed samostatn\u00e9ho 5G, odkl\u00e1dan\u00e9 zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed optiky a\u00a0hor\u0161\u00ed sign\u00e1l v\u00a0obc\u00edch a\u00a0na okraj\u00edch m\u011bst, kde ekonomika investice stoj\u00ed na hran\u011b u\u017e dnes. Z\u00e1kazn\u00edk nedostane vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed fakturu, ale\u00a0hor\u0161\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165.<\/p>\n
Nen\u00ed to jen ot\u00e1zka pohodl\u00ed. Podle v\u00fdzkumu citovan\u00e9ho ve studii je desetiprocentn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst v\u00a0pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed mobiln\u00edho \u0161irokop\u00e1smov\u00e9ho p\u0159ipojen\u00ed spojen s\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm HDP zhruba o\u00a00,8 procenta a\u00a0zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed objemu p\u0159enesen\u00fdch dat p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u016fl procentn\u00edho bodu k\u00a0r\u016fstu HDP na obyvatele. Mobiln\u00ed technologie p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u011b kolem 6,4 procenta HDP. Zpomalen\u00e1 modernizace s\u00edt\u00ed se tedy neprojev\u00ed na faktu\u0159e, ale na v\u00fdplat\u011b \u2013 v\u00a0podob\u011b r\u016fstu, kter\u00fd nenastane.<\/p>\n
Bezpe\u010dnost ano, proveden\u00ed ne<\/p>\n
Nic z\u00a0toho neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed riziko je vymy\u0161len\u00e9. \u010cesk\u00fd N\u00daKIB varoval p\u0159ed technikou Huawei a\u00a0ZTE u\u017e v\u00a0roce 2018, d\u0159\u00edve ne\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina evropsk\u00fdch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f, a\u00a0m\u011bl k\u00a0tomu dobr\u00e9 d\u016fvody. Ot\u00e1zka nezn\u00ed, zda s\u00edt\u011b zabezpe\u010dit, ale zda plo\u0161n\u00e9 je vy\u0159azen\u00ed v\u00a0t\u0159\u00edlet\u00e9 lh\u016ft\u011b je nejlevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a\u00a0nejsmyslupln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u00a0cesta k\u00a0tomuto c\u00edli \u2013 a\u00a0tu odpov\u011b\u010f zat\u00edm nikdo nespo\u010d\u00edtal.<\/p>\n
Skute\u010dnou zranitelnost\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b toti\u017e nen\u00ed vlajka dodavatele, ale z\u00e1vislost na jedin\u00e9m dodavateli. Opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost sn\u00ed\u017eit, ji podle vlastn\u00edch \u010d\u00edsel prokazateln\u011b zvy\u0161uje: dv\u011b firmy na p\u011btadevades\u00e1ti procentech mobiln\u00edho trhu, jeden velk\u00fd dodavatel optiky, jeden dodavatel mikrovlnn\u00fdch spoj\u016f. To nen\u00ed diverzifikace, ale v\u00fdm\u011bna jedn\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti za druhou.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Kolem v\u00fdm\u011bny managementu na\u00a0pra\u017esk\u00e9m leti\u0161ti je ru\u0161no. V\u00e1\u0161n\u011b se soust\u0159ed\u00ed na\u00a0n\u00e1stup Radom\u00edra La\u0161\u00e1ka, jemu\u017e je p\u0159isuzov\u00e1n lv\u00ed pod\u00edl…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":180608,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[11],"tags":[7603,9203,5654,69,3808,21609,36465,54,78,4522,53,52,4078],"class_list":["post-180607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-svet","tag-ceske-aerolinie","tag-ericsson","tag-huawei","tag-investice","tag-mobilni-sit","tag-operator","tag-radomir-lasak","tag-svet","tag-technika","tag-telekomunikace","tag-world","tag-world-news","tag-zavislost"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117100358091127456","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=180607"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180607\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/180608"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=180607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=180607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=180607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}