anal\u00fdzy<\/a>\u00a0agentury Bloomberg z\u00a0konce roku 2024 lze zhruba \u010dty\u0159icet procent v\u00fdpadku n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho HDP vysv\u011btlit ztr\u00e1tou exportn\u00edch trh\u016f, dal\u0161\u00edch \u010dty\u0159icet procent vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi cenami energi\u00ed a\u00a0zbyl\u00fdch dvacet procent slabou dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vkou, byrokraci\u00ed a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edmi faktory. N\u011bmeck\u00e1 politika tak sv\u00fdm d\u016frazem na byrokracii obrac\u00ed pravidlo 80:20 naruby.<\/p>\nKumulativn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ta z\u00a0klesaj\u00edc\u00edho \u010dist\u00e9ho exportu se od konce roku 2023 zrychlila a\u00a0dos\u00e1hla celkem t\u0159\u00ed procent n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho HDP \u2013 a\u00a0to pot\u00e9, co dozn\u011blo jak zpomalen\u00ed z\u00a0pandemie, tak \u0161ok z\u00a0rusk\u00e9ho plynu v\u00a0roce 2022. \u0160kody se prom\u00edtaj\u00ed i\u00a0do pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby: odv\u011btv\u00ed nejv\u00edce vystaven\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 konkurenci se smr\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed relativn\u011b nejrychleji.<\/p>\n
T\u0159i struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny \u0161oku<\/p>\n
Aby bylo jasn\u00e9, \u017ee chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed exportn\u00ed popt\u00e1vka nen\u00ed jen cyklickou z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed, je t\u0159eba pochopit mechaniku druh\u00e9ho \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho \u0161oku. Od pandemie vzrostl objem \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho exportu o\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dty\u0159icet procent, zat\u00edmco dovoz stagnoval. To podpo\u0159ilo \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd r\u016fst \u2013 p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek \u010dist\u00e9ho exportu k\u00a0HDP ve v\u00fd\u0161i \u0161esti procentn\u00edch bod\u016f od roku 2019 je pro jednu z\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch ekonomik sv\u011bta v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u011b vysok\u00fd. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 to ale znamen\u00e1, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna bere popt\u00e1vku zbytku sv\u011bta, ani\u017e by mu cokoliv vracela zp\u011bt.<\/p>\n
Za t\u00edm stoj\u00ed t\u0159i p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed se deformace. Prvn\u00ed je vysok\u00e1 m\u00edra \u00faspor a\u00a0slab\u00e1 spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. V\u00a0des\u00e1t\u00fdch letech tuto slabinu maskoval investi\u010dn\u00ed boom na trhu s\u00a0nemovitostmi. Ve dvac\u00e1t\u00fdch letech se tento motor obr\u00e1til v\u00a0opak: klesaj\u00edc\u00ed ceny nemovitost\u00ed v\u00a0kombinaci s\u00a0nedostate\u010dn\u00fdmi penzemi a\u00a0omezenou zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010d\u00ed dr\u017e\u00ed preventivn\u00ed \u00faspory dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed vysoko a\u00a0jejich popt\u00e1vku n\u00edzko.<\/p>\n
Druhou p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou je, \u017ee Peking na to reagoval je\u0161t\u011b intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fmyslovou politikou. V\u00a0prioritn\u00edch odv\u011btv\u00edch \u2013 polovodi\u010de, stroj\u00edrenstv\u00ed, auta, letadla \u2013 vedly p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 dotace, bezplatn\u00e1 \u010di jinak zv\u00fdhodn\u011bn\u00e1 p\u016fda pro tov\u00e1rny, dotovan\u00e9 stroje a\u00a0st\u00e1tem podporovan\u00e9 \u00fav\u011bry k\u00a0prudk\u00e9mu roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nab\u00eddky, kterou slab\u00e1 dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vka nedok\u00e1\u017ee absorbovat. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd fond odhaduje tyto subvence na 4,4 procenta HDP, tedy zhruba 800 miliard dolar\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b \u2013 podstatn\u011b v\u00edce, ne\u017e kolik pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed zem\u011b EU vydat na zbrojen\u00ed. Podle OECD dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed \u010d\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed v\u00fdrobci dotace, kter\u00e9 jsou t\u0159ikr\u00e1t a\u017e dev\u011btkr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ty dostupn\u00e9 firm\u00e1m ve vysp\u011bl\u00fdch ekonomik\u00e1ch. Konkurence mezi \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi m\u00edstn\u00edmi vl\u00e1dami o\u00a0podporu prioritn\u00edch odv\u011btv\u00ed p\u0159itom vede k\u00a0masivn\u00ed nadm\u011brn\u00e9 kapacit\u011b, co\u017e tla\u010d\u00ed dol\u016f dom\u00e1c\u00ed ceny a\u00a0nut\u00ed firmy \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch zahrani\u010dn\u00edch \u2013 hledat odbyt v\u00a0exportu. Volkswagen dnes lokalizuje n\u00e1vrh voz\u016f i\u00a0dodavatelsk\u00fd \u0159et\u011bzec d\u00edl\u016f p\u0159\u00edmo v\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b, v\u010detn\u011b tov\u00e1ren vybaven\u00fdch \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi roboty.<\/p>\n
T\u0159et\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou je podhodnocen\u00fd sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz. Zem\u011b s\u00a0velk\u00fdmi p\u0159ebytky b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu by za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch okolnost\u00ed vid\u011bla posilov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9 m\u011bny, jak repatriuje devizov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy zp\u011bt do dom\u00e1c\u00ed m\u011bny \u2013 to by n\u00e1sledn\u011b tlumilo export a\u00a0zvy\u0161ovalo popt\u00e1vku po dovozu. M\u00edsto toho j\u00fcan oslabil, jeliko\u017e \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka sni\u017eovala sazby, aby kompenzovala propad na trhu s\u00a0nemovitostmi, a\u00a0hodnotu m\u011bny c\u00edlen\u011b tla\u010dila dol\u016f.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Jakmile tlak z\u00a0rostouc\u00edho obchodn\u00edho p\u0159ebytku za\u010dal sm\u011b\u0159ovat k\u00a0pos\u00edlen\u00ed j\u00fcanu, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed banky \u2013 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b na pokyn centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky \u2013 nakupovaly dolary, aby pos\u00edlen\u00ed m\u011bny br\u00e1nily. MMF odhaduje, \u017ee j\u00fcan m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt dnes podhodnocen a\u017e o\u00a0\u0161estn\u00e1ct procent, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e skute\u010dn\u00e9 podhodnocen\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed kv\u016fli sporn\u00e9 metodice, jakou \u010c\u00edna od roku 2022 vykazuje sv\u016fj obchodn\u00ed p\u0159ebytek.<\/p>\n
Vyhazov z\u00a0pr\u00e1ce Made in China<\/p>\n
V\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku je druh\u00fd \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd \u0161ok srovnateln\u00fd co do velikosti s\u00a0t\u00edm prvn\u00edm, kter\u00fd n\u00e1sledoval po vstupu \u010c\u00edny do WTO. Zat\u00edmco prvn\u00ed \u0161ok vytla\u010dil \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd p\u0159ebytek na necel\u00e9 jedno procento sv\u011btov\u00e9ho HDP, druh\u00fd \u0161ok za posledn\u00ed t\u0159i a\u017e \u010dty\u0159i roky p\u0159idal skoro dal\u0161\u00ed procentn\u00ed bod.<\/p>\n
Podstatn\u00fd rozd\u00edl je ale v\u00a0tom, co bylo ztraceno. Prvn\u00ed \u0161ok postihl p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm n\u00edzkop\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e1 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed a\u00a0byl doprov\u00e1zen i\u00a0d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm protiv\u00e1hov\u00fdm efektem: evropsk\u00e9 firmy, zejm\u00e9na n\u011bmeck\u00e9, v\u00a0t\u00e9 dob\u011b expandovaly d\u00edky rostouc\u00edmu obchodu s\u00a0rychle industrializuj\u00edc\u00ed se \u010c\u00ednou a\u00a0prod\u00e1valy j\u00ed chemik\u00e1lie, auta a\u00a0v\u00fdrobn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Tentokr\u00e1t je situace jin\u00e1 a\u00a0pro N\u011bmecko mnohem p\u0159\u00edm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd export d\u00e1l prudce roste, ale dovoz s\u00a0n\u00edm neroste soub\u011b\u017en\u011b \u2013 v\u00a0objemov\u00e9m vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed za posledn\u00edch \u0161est let prakticky stagnoval. V\u00fdsledkem je n\u00e1r\u016fst \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho exportu o\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e bilion dolar\u016f bez odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edho n\u00e1r\u016fstu dovozu a\u00a0p\u0159ebytek v\u00a0obchodu s\u00a0vyroben\u00fdm zbo\u017e\u00edm kolem dvou bilion\u016f dolar\u016f, co\u017e zhruba odpov\u00edd\u00e1 velikosti cel\u00e9ho italsk\u00e9ho n\u00e1rodn\u00edho d\u016fchodu.<\/p>\n
N\u011bmeck\u00fd export do \u010c\u00edny klesl obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 prudce \u2013 o\u00a0zhruba jeden procentn\u00ed bod HDP. Podle odhad\u016f Institutu n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky (IW K\u00f6ln) z\u00e1viselo na vrcholu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho exportn\u00edho boomu v\u00a0roce 2021 na popt\u00e1vce z\u00a0\u010c\u00edny p\u0159\u00edmo \u010di nep\u0159\u00edmo p\u0159es 1,1 milionu n\u011bmeck\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst, tedy zhruba 2,5 procenta celkov\u00e9 zam\u011bstnanosti. Od t\u00e9 doby klesl pod\u00edl n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho exportu do \u010c\u00edny na HDP o\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dty\u0159icet procent, co\u017e implikuje ztr\u00e1tu v\u00edce ne\u017e 400 tis\u00edc pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst spojen\u00fdch s\u00a0v\u00fdvozem do \u010c\u00edny \u2013 a\u00a0podle sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dynamiky bude n\u00e1sledovat dal\u0161\u00ed propad.<\/p>\n
Auta, stroje, letadla: j\u00e1dro N\u011bmecka pod tlakem<\/p>\n
\u010c\u00edna dnes dominuje p\u0159esn\u011b t\u011bm odv\u011btv\u00edm, kter\u00e1 tvo\u0159\u00ed produktivn\u00ed j\u00e1dro n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky: auta, stroj\u00edrenstv\u00ed, specializovan\u00e1 chemie, elektrotechnika, leteck\u00fd pr\u016fmysl a\u00a0technologie pro \u010distou energetiku. Nad t\u011bmito sektory se dnes vzn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edzrak n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho sol\u00e1rn\u00edho pr\u016fmyslu \u2013 v\u00a0roce 2010 z\u00e1visela \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 v\u00fdroba sol\u00e1rn\u00edch panel\u016f na dovozu n\u011bmeck\u00fdch stroj\u016f, dnes je tomu p\u0159esn\u011b naopak.<\/p>\n
Zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 znepokojiv\u00e9 je to pro ekonomiku tak siln\u011b orientovanou na automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl a\u00a0stroj\u00edrenstv\u00ed jako N\u011bmecko. \u010c\u00edna je u\u017e dnes zdaleka nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm export\u00e9rem aut a\u00a0disponuje tov\u00e1rnami s\u00a0kapacitou 55 milion\u016f voz\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b \u2013 tedy zhruba 65 procenty celosv\u011btov\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky. Americk\u00fd trh je pro \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 auta d\u00edky stoprocentn\u00edm cl\u016fm prakticky uzav\u0159en\u00fd a\u00a0sama \u010c\u00edna dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed jen asi dv\u011b procenta sv\u00e9ho 25milionov\u00e9ho trhu. N\u011bmecko a\u00a0\u010c\u00edna tak fakticky soupe\u0159\u00ed o\u00a0zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b pades\u00e1timilionov\u00fd trh ve zbytku sv\u011bta, z\u00a0n\u011bho\u017e \u010c\u00edna u\u017e dnes ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 kolem p\u011btiny.<\/p>\n
Podobn\u00e1 dynamika se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 i\u00a0ve stroj\u00edrenstv\u00ed: od poloviny roku 2025 N\u011bmecko poprv\u00e9 nakupuje v\u00edce kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed z\u00a0\u010c\u00edny, ne\u017e kolik ho tam vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed \u2013 symbolicky v\u00fdznamn\u00fd zlomov\u00fd bod. Leteck\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, jedno z\u00a0posledn\u00edch odv\u011btv\u00ed, kde si N\u011bmecko v\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b je\u0161t\u011b dr\u017eelo pozice d\u00edky v\u00fdrob\u011b rodiny letadel Airbus A320 v\u00a0Hamburku, \u010del\u00ed podobn\u00e9mu trendu: n\u011bmeck\u00fd export letadel do \u010c\u00edny klesl od sv\u00e9ho vrcholu o\u00a0polovinu, jeliko\u017e Airbus p\u0159esunul v\u00fdrobu pro \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd trh p\u0159\u00edmo do \u010c\u00edny. Tlak s\u00edl\u00ed i\u00a0v\u00a0technologi\u00edch pro n\u00edzkouhl\u00edkovou ekonomiku \u2013 od turb\u00edn p\u0159es jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a\u017e po baterie a\u00a0izolace budov \u2013 p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd dovoz t\u011bchto technologi\u00ed dlouhodob\u011b kles\u00e1, co\u017e nazna\u010duje sp\u00ed\u0161e c\u00edlenou substituci dovozu ne\u017e skute\u010dnou komparativn\u00ed v\u00fdhodu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Mezi ekonomy panuje st\u00e1le \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed shoda, \u017ee sv\u011btem se \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed druh\u00e1 vlna takzvan\u00e9ho \u201e\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho \u0161oku\u201c \u2013 tj. prudk\u00e9ho…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":181509,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,202,2046,708,106,375,2140,592,2132,2803],"class_list":["post-181508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-cina","tag-dolar","tag-ekonomika","tag-evropa","tag-nemecko","tag-peking","tag-prumysl","tag-vyroba","tag-vyvoz"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117105953716932066","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/181508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=181508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/181508\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/181509"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=181508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=181508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=181508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}