{"id":18504,"date":"2026-03-09T05:55:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T05:55:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/18504\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T05:55:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T05:55:10","slug":"expert-utok-na-iran-ukazuje-autoritarum-ze-potrebuji-jaderne-zbrane","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/18504\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert: \u00datok na \u00cdr\u00e1n ukazuje autorit\u00e1\u0159\u016fm, \u017ee pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"

Vzhledem k\u00a0v\u00fdvoji sv\u011bta pot\u0159ebuje Francie v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l. Takov\u00fd vzkaz ned\u00e1vno vyslal prezident Emmanuel Macron s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee v\u00a0reakci na nov\u00e9 hrozby je nutn\u00e9 zp\u0159\u00edsnit jadernou doktr\u00ednu. Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ot\u0159esy na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u011b ale p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed ot\u00e1zku, jestli se neschyluje k\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00edm z\u00e1vod\u016fm v\u00a0jadern\u00e9m zbrojen\u00ed. Roli mohou sehr\u00e1t i\u00a0\u00fadery na \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Co v\u00a0t\u00e9to epizod\u011b 5:59\u00a0tak\u00e9 usly\u0161\u00edteJestli budou francouzsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b chr\u00e1nit bezpe\u010d\u00ed cel\u00e9 Evropy a nahrad\u00ed tak \u201eamerick\u00fd jadern\u00fd de\u0161tn\u00edk\u201c.Pro\u010d Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e poprv\u00e9 od 90. let minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed za\u010dala o sv\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m arzen\u00e1lu uva\u017eovat jinak a chce navy\u0161ovat jeho kapacity.Jak se \u00fadery Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a Izraele mohou odrazit na budouc\u00ed snaze \u00cdr\u00e1nu skute\u010dn\u011b z\u00edskat jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b.<\/p>\n

Francouzsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l m\u00e1 b\u00fdt siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. To bylo poselstv\u00ed prezidenta Emmanuela Macrona, kter\u00fd minul\u00fd t\u00fdden vystoupil<\/a> s\u00a0projevem p\u0159\u00edmo u\u00a0zakotven\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 ponorky. Ozn\u00e1mil z\u00e1rove\u0148, \u017ee Francie dovol\u00ed do\u010dasn\u00e9 nasazen\u00ed sv\u00fdch letadel schopn\u00fdch n\u00e9st jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b na z\u00e1kladn\u00e1ch n\u011bkter\u00fdch sv\u00fdch partner\u016f, s\u00a0nimi\u017e bude tak\u00e9 diskutovat dal\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed kroky.<\/p>\n

Hned n\u011bkolik st\u00e1t\u016f – v\u010detn\u011b N\u011bmecka \u010di Polska – se k\u00a0francouzsk\u00e9 iniciativ\u011b obratem p\u0159ihl\u00e1silo. Podle bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho analytika Michala Smetany<\/a> z\u00a0Fakulty soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011bd Univerzity Karlovy je ale \u201ezav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed\u201c o\u00a0tomto z\u00e1m\u011bru uva\u017eovat jako o\u00a0\u201efrancouzsk\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m de\u0161tn\u00edku\u201c, jak je n\u011bkdy prezentovan\u00fd, a\u00a0pohl\u00ed\u017eet na n\u011bj jako na alternativu k\u00a0jadern\u00e9mu odstra\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 dosud zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco USA toti\u017e nap\u0159\u00edklad dlouhodob\u011b rozmis\u0165uj\u00ed sv\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b v\u00a0p\u011bti evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch v\u00a0r\u00e1mci tzv. jadern\u00e9ho sd\u00edlen\u00ed, francouzsk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup bude odli\u0161n\u00fd. Nep\u016fjde o\u00a0sd\u00edlen\u00ed, ale ani o\u00a0dlouhodob\u00e9 um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed t\u011bchto zbran\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed partner\u016f. A\u00a0na rozd\u00edl od americk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu by Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e s\u00a0dan\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi ani nem\u011bla sd\u00edlet proces rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed o\u00a0tom, jestli bude francouzsk\u00fd arzen\u00e1l pou\u017eit. Expert p\u0159itom podot\u00fdk\u00e1, \u017ee detaily pl\u00e1nu z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed naschv\u00e1l v\u00a0mlze.<\/p>\n

\u201eSt\u00e1le je to ale v\u00fdznamn\u00fd posun, (\u2026) kter\u00fd by m\u011bl signalizovat Rusku, \u017ee i\u00a0v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b americk\u00e9ho sta\u017een\u00ed – a\u0165 u\u017e \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9ho, nebo \u00fapln\u00e9ho – z\u00a0evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury, Francie posiluje svoji roli v\u00a0kontextu evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti a\u00a0i v\u00a0kontextu jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 k\u00a0dispozici,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Smetana.<\/p>\n

Foto: Renata Mat\u011bjkov\u00e1, Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed expert Michal Smetana p\u016fsob\u00ed na Institutu mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch studi\u00ed Fakulty soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011bd Univerzity Karlovy a\u00a0tak\u00e9 jako \u0159editel univerzitn\u00edho Peace Research Center Prague (PRCP).<\/p>\n

USA na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b, \u010c\u00edna na druh\u00e9<\/p>\n

To ale nen\u00ed jedin\u00e1 zm\u011bna, kterou francouzsk\u00fd prezident minul\u00fd t\u00fdden ozn\u00e1mil. Mimo jin\u00e9 ve sv\u00e9m projevu tak\u00e9 zm\u00ednil, \u017ee Francie chce navy\u0161ovat kapacity sv\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu. A\u00a0tak\u00e9 \u017ee p\u0159estane zve\u0159ej\u0148ovat po\u010dty jadern\u00fdch hlavic, je\u017e vlastn\u00ed. Moment\u00e1ln\u011b jich m\u00e1 okolo 290, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e je schopn\u00e1 je nasadit proti nep\u0159\u00edteli jak z\u00a0letadel, tak z\u00a0ponorek.<\/p>\n

Analytik Smetana popisuje, \u017ee snahy o\u00a0vlastnictv\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho po\u010dtu jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed op\u011bt souvisej\u00ed s\u00a0geopolitick\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b je toti\u017e jednak zpochybn\u011bna role USA coby spolehliv\u00e9ho alian\u010dn\u00edho partnera a\u00a0krom\u011b toho na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b zv\u011bt\u0161uje sv\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 kapacity dal\u0161\u00ed velmoc: \u010c\u00edna. \u201eJe to st\u00e1t, kter\u00fd aktu\u00e1ln\u011b v\u00a0tomto ohledu roste nejrychleji,\u201c vysv\u011btluje odborn\u00edk.<\/p>\n

Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e p\u0159itom podle Michala Smetany v\u00a0\u00favah\u00e1ch o\u00a0zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vlastn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti mus\u00ed reagovat i\u00a0na krajn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 \u201esyst\u00e9mov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u201c, v\u00a0n\u00ed\u017e by \u010c\u00edna jako protivn\u00edk st\u00e1la po boku Ruska s\u00a0jeho ob\u0159\u00edm jadern\u00fdm arzen\u00e1lem. \u201eV\u00edme, \u017ee po konci studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky Francie zredukovala sv\u016fj jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na polovinu jadern\u00fdch hlavic a\u00a0nyn\u00ed mluv\u00ed o\u00a0tom, \u017ee mezin\u00e1rodn\u011bbezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed se zm\u011bnilo a\u00a0t\u00edm p\u00e1dem je pot\u0159eba ho op\u011bt pos\u00edlit,\u201c\u00a0\u0159\u00edk\u00e1 akademik z\u00a0FSV UK.<\/p>\n

Co se stane v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu?<\/p>\n

Do glob\u00e1ln\u00ed jadern\u00e9 dynamiky ale nepromlouvaj\u00ed jen arzen\u00e1ly t\u011bch st\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00e9 u\u017e atomov\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi disponuj\u00ed. Pr\u00e1v\u011b snaha zabr\u00e1nit z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b ze strany \u00cdr\u00e1nu pat\u0159\u00ed mezi teze, kter\u00fdmi administrativa americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa zd\u016fvod\u0148uje, pro\u010d Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0Izraelem p\u0159ed v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u00fddnem na tuto zemi za\u00fato\u010dily. <\/p>\n

\u201eTento (\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd) re\u017eim nesm\u00ed nikdy m\u00edt jadernou zbra\u0148,\u201c prohl\u00e1sil \u0161\u00e9f B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu.<\/p>\n

Situace v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n

\u0158ada expert\u016f nicm\u00e9n\u011b upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee k\u00a0nastolen\u00ed demokracie v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu vede slo\u017eit\u00e1 cesta a\u00a0\u017ee svr\u017een\u00ed dosavadn\u00edho re\u017eimu nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9. Analytik Michal Smetana v\u00a0t\u00e9to souvislosti varuje, \u017ee pokud \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim skute\u010dn\u011b v\u00e1lku p\u0159e\u010dk\u00e1, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v\u00a0jeho \u0159ad\u00e1ch zes\u00edl\u00ed hlasy volaj\u00edc\u00ed po z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu, aby si tak zajistil svou bezpe\u010dnost: \u201eD\u00e1 se o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee lekc\u00ed, kterou si \u00cdr\u00e1n odnese, je, \u017ee pomoc\u00ed sv\u00fdch konven\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f, pomoc\u00ed balistick\u00fdch raket, zkr\u00e1tka nejsou schopni odstra\u0161it tyto extern\u00ed \u00fatoky ze strany Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a\u00a0Izraele.\u201c<\/p>\n

Nejde ale jen o\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1n. Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 d\u011bn\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a\u00a0obecn\u011b st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edklon velmoc\u00ed k\u00a0pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00edly na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u011b toti\u017e bezesporu sleduj\u00ed i\u00a0jinde. \u201ePou\u010den\u00edm z\u00a0t\u011bchto kriz\u00ed je, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u011b ano – pro autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty je dobr\u00fdm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm sp\u00ed\u0161e jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b z\u00edskat a\u00a0sp\u00ed\u0161e se chovat jako Severn\u00ed Korea,\u201c\u00a0popisuje Smetana. <\/p>\n

Jen pro p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed: Tato asijsk\u00e1 diktatura se na za\u010d\u00e1tku tis\u00edcilet\u00ed nejprve vyv\u00e1zala ze Smlouvy o\u00a0ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Pozd\u011bji se prohl\u00e1sila za jadern\u00fd st\u00e1t a\u00a0v roce 2006\u00a0otestovala i\u00a0svou prvn\u00ed jadernou zbra\u0148. <\/p>\n

A dnes Severn\u00ed Korea disponuje mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00edmi st\u0159elami schopn\u00fdmi zas\u00e1hnout \u00fazem\u00ed Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, d\u00edky \u010demu\u017e se Pchjongjang v\u00a0podstat\u011b neob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee by proti KLDR n\u011bkdo podnikl vojenskou intervenci. \u201eM\u00e1 mal\u00fd, ale funk\u010dn\u00ed jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l, a\u00a0t\u00edm p\u00e1dem m\u00e1 odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed prost\u0159edek. A\u00a0je velmi nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee s\u00a0t\u00edm, co vid\u00ed, co se d\u011bje po sv\u011bt\u011b, by se severokorejsk\u00fd re\u017eim t\u011bchto jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed n\u011bkdy v\u00a0budoucnu vzdal,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 expert.<\/p>\n

V podcastu 5:59\u00a0se tak\u00e9 dozv\u00edte podrobnosti o\u00a0jadern\u00e9m arzen\u00e1lu, kter\u00fdm Francie disponuje. A\u00a0tak\u00e9 do jak\u00e9 \u00e9ry podle analytika Michala Smetany vstupuje sv\u011bt po vypr\u0161en\u00ed posledn\u00ed smlouvy o\u00a0omezen\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a\u00a0Ruskem. Poslechn\u011bte si v\u00a0p\u0159ehr\u00e1va\u010di v\u00a0\u00favodu \u010dl\u00e1nku.<\/p>\n

Editor a\u00a0koeditor: Mat\u011bj V\u00e1lek, Dominika Kubi\u0161tov\u00e1<\/p>\n

Sound design: Ursula Sereghy<\/p>\n

Zdroje audiouk\u00e1zek: YouTube – \u00c9lys\u00e9e (@ELYSEE), \u010cesk\u00fd rozhlas Plus, \u010cT24<\/p>\n

Podcast 5:59<\/p>\n

Zpravodajsk\u00fd podcast Seznam Zpr\u00e1v. Jedno z\u00e1sadn\u00ed t\u00e9ma ka\u017ed\u00fd v\u0161edn\u00ed den za minutu \u0161est. To nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed d\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0\u010cesku, ve sv\u011bt\u011b, politice, ekonomice, sportu i\u00a0kultu\u0159e optikou Seznam Zpr\u00e1v<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Archiv v\u0161ech d\u00edl\u016f najdete na na\u0161ich str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch<\/a>. Sv\u00e9 post\u0159ehy, p\u0159ipom\u00ednky nebo tipy n\u00e1m pi\u0161te prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed nebo na e-mail: zaminutusest@sz.cz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Vzhledem k\u00a0v\u00fdvoji sv\u011bta pot\u0159ebuje Francie v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l. Takov\u00fd vzkaz ned\u00e1vno vyslal prezident Emmanuel Macron s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee v\u00a0reakci…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18505,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[202,115,378,808,3432,9312,1950,268,3431,789,790,54,113,53,52],"class_list":{"0":"post-18504","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-cina","9":"tag-emmanuel-macron","10":"tag-francie","11":"tag-iran","12":"tag-iransky-jaderny-program","13":"tag-jaderna-bomba","14":"tag-jaderne-odstrasovani","15":"tag-jaderne-zbrane","16":"tag-jaderny-program","17":"tag-podcast","18":"tag-podcast-559","19":"tag-svet","20":"tag-usa","21":"tag-world","22":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116197675741829513","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18504","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18504"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18504\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18505"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18504"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18504"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18504"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}