{"id":18514,"date":"2026-03-09T06:05:05","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T06:05:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/18514\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T06:05:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T06:05:05","slug":"rozpad-spolu-a-nova-strana-kuby-maji-nezamysleneho-viteze-aktualne-cz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/18514\/","title":{"rendered":"Rozpad Spolu a nov\u00e1 strana Kuby maj\u00ed nezam\u00fd\u0161len\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bze \u2013 Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b.cz"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Srovn\u00e1n\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu s\u00a0volebn\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem z\u00a0\u0159\u00edjna 2025 znesnad\u0148uje skute\u010dnost, \u017ee p\u011bt stran, kter\u00e9 \u0161ly do voleb v\u00a0r\u00e1mci koalic (ODS, TOP 09, KDU-\u010cSL, KS\u010cM, SOCDEM), nyn\u00ed funguje samostatn\u011b. A tak je tak\u00e9 zaznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed jednotliv\u00e9 pr\u016fzkumy renomovan\u00fdch agentur, z\u00a0nich\u017e redakce <a href=\"http:\/\/Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b.cz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b.cz<\/a> pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u011b sestavuje pr\u016fzkum pr\u016fzkum\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>Z\u00a0prvn\u00edho leto\u0161n\u00edho pr\u016fzkumu pr\u016fzkum\u016f vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee s v\u00fdjimkou ODS hroz\u00ed, \u017ee hlasy pro men\u0161\u00ed strany bez koali\u010dn\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce propadnou. Ani TOP 09, ani KDU-\u010cSL nep\u0159ekro\u010dily v\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m ze \u010dty\u0159ech volebn\u00edch model\u016f od agentur NMS, Kantar a STEM p\u011btiprocentn\u00ed hranici. V\u00a0pr\u016fzkumu pr\u016fzkum\u016f m\u00e1 nyn\u00ed TOP 09 pouze 3,3 procenta, lidovci pouh\u00e1 2,9 procenta hlas\u016f. Je\u0161t\u011b h\u016f\u0159e jsou na tom komunist\u00e9 a soci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokrat\u00e9, kter\u00e9 u\u017e proto n\u011bkter\u00e9 agentury ani neuv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed samostatn\u011b.<\/p>\n<p>Strany b\u00fdval\u00e9 koalice Spolu tak v\u00a0sou\u010dtu sice maj\u00ed 21 procent hlas\u016f, p\u0159i samostatn\u00e9 kandidatu\u0159e by v\u0161ak v\u00a0Poslaneck\u00e9 sn\u011bmovn\u011b m\u011bly jen 37 z\u00e1stupc\u016f z\u00a0ODS nam\u00edsto sou\u010dasn\u00fdch 52. Na jejich \u00fakor by pos\u00edlilo p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm hnut\u00ed ANO, kter\u00e9 by se s\u00a093 poslanci p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eilo snu Andreje Babi\u0161e o jednobarevn\u00e9 vl\u00e1d\u011b. A to p\u0159esto, \u017ee oproti volebn\u00edmu v\u00fdsledku ANO m\u00edrn\u011b ztratilo na oblib\u011b.<\/p>\n<p>Kuba m\u00edch\u00e1 kartami<\/p>\n<p>Na sc\u00e9nu nav\u00edc p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed nov\u00fd hr\u00e1\u010d, kter\u00fd se netaj\u00ed sm\u00ed\u0159liv\u011bj\u0161\u00edm postojem v\u016f\u010di hnut\u00ed ANO. Hnut\u00ed Na\u0161e \u010cesko, kter\u00e9 zalo\u017eil Martin Kuba, jiho\u010desk\u00fd hejtman a b\u00fdval\u00fd p\u0159edseda ODS, se u\u017e prom\u00edtlo v prvn\u00edch dvou pr\u016fzkumech se slibn\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem 4,7 procenta, respektive 3,5 procenta hlas\u016f. Ob\u010dan\u0161t\u00ed demokrat\u00e9 se mohou ut\u011b\u0161ovat t\u00edm, \u017ee na preferenc\u00edch ODS se to zat\u00edm v\u00fdrazn\u011bji nepodepsalo.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eK v\u00fdsledku hnut\u00ed Na\u0161e \u010cesko p\u0159isp\u011bla doba sb\u011bru i zvolen\u00e1 metodologie. Data jsme sb\u00edrali jen dva t\u00fddny po ozn\u00e1men\u00ed zalo\u017een\u00ed strany, co\u017e je dostate\u010dn\u011b dlouh\u00e1 doba na to, aby se informace roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila a z\u00e1rove\u0148 ji voli\u010di je\u0161t\u011b nestihli zapomenout. Sou\u010dasn\u011b respondenti v dotazn\u00edku mohli vyb\u00edrat ze seznamu stran s mo\u017enost\u00ed vypsat jinou stranu. Pro novou stranu toto byla v\u00fdhoda, proto\u017ee v opa\u010dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by si ji nemuselo tolik lid\u00ed vybavit,\u201c popisuje analyti\u010dka NMS Tereza Fridrichov\u00e1. Teprve \u010das podle n\u00ed uk\u00e1\u017ee, jestli Na\u0161e \u010cesko z\u016fstane relevantn\u00edm subjektem a sp\u00ed\u0161e region\u00e1ln\u00ed podporu p\u0159etav\u00ed v rozumn\u00fd celost\u00e1tn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek.<\/p>\n<p>Ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed, p\u0159esto mohou z\u00edskat<\/p>\n<p>Jen o v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed oblibu ne\u017e Na\u0161e \u010cesko m\u00e1 mezi voli\u010di nejmen\u0161\u00ed strana Babi\u0161ova kabinetu, Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b. Pr\u016fzkum pr\u016fzkum\u016f j\u00ed p\u0159isuzuje 4,9 procenta hlas\u016f. Konfrontace jej\u00edho p\u0159edsedy s\u00a0prezidentem Petrem Pavlem stran\u011b podle v\u0161eho neprosp\u011bla. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b Motorist\u00e9 se pod p\u011btiprocentn\u00ed hranic\u00ed pohybovali i na ja\u0159e a v\u00a0l\u00e9t\u011b lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku, p\u0159esto se nakonec dostali jak do parlamentu, tak do vl\u00e1dy.<\/p>\n<p>Kles\u00e1 i popularita t\u0159et\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed strany, SPD. Ta ve volb\u00e1ch navzdory spojenectv\u00ed se Svobodn\u00fdmi, Trikol\u00f3rou a stranou PRO z\u00edskala pouze 7,8 procenta hlas\u016f, pr\u016fzkumy j\u00ed p\u0159itom p\u0159edpov\u00eddaly dvoucifern\u00fd v\u00fdsledek. Nyn\u00ed m\u00e1 v\u00a0pr\u016fzkumu pr\u016fzkum\u016f 6,6 procenta hlas\u016f. Pokud by se ov\u0161em do sn\u011bmovny neprobojovala \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 ze t\u0159\u00ed stran, kter\u00e1 se nyn\u00ed pohybuje pod p\u011bti procenty, tak\u00e9 SPD by dal\u0161\u00ed volby p\u0159ihr\u00e1ly v\u00edce poslanc\u016f, ne\u017e dnes m\u00e1. Andrej Babi\u0161 by tak mohl sestavit siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1du pouze s\u00a0Tomiem Okamurou.<\/p>\n<p>Jak pr\u016fzkum pr\u016fzkum\u016f po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1<\/p>\n<p>Volebn\u00ed model <a href=\"http:\/\/Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b.cz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b.cz<\/a> pat\u0159\u00ed, stejn\u011b jako nap\u0159\u00edklad projekt<a href=\"https:\/\/mandaty.cz\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> <\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/Mand\u00e1ty.cz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Mand\u00e1ty.cz<\/a>, mezi takzvan\u00e9 poll of polls, tedy pr\u016fzkumy pr\u016fzkum\u016f. Jeho vstupem jsou v\u0161echny letos zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9 volebn\u00ed modely dom\u00e1c\u00edch agentur sdru\u017een\u00fdch v<a href=\"https:\/\/simar.cz\/agentury\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> profesn\u00ed organizaci Simar<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00fdsledky t\u011bchto model\u016f jsou pak v\u00e1\u017eeny podle data zji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed a po\u010dtu respondent\u016f: \u010d\u00edm nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je dan\u00fd pr\u016fzkum a \u010d\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u00e1 po\u010det respondent\u016f, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1hu mu pr\u016fzkum pr\u016fzkum\u016f p\u0159isuzuje. Vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fd volebn\u00ed zisk pak p\u0159epo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1 na poslaneck\u00e9 mand\u00e1ty s p\u0159edpokladem, \u017ee v jednotliv\u00fdch kraj\u00edch bude hlasovat stejn\u00fd po\u010det voli\u010d\u016f jako v roce 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Do leto\u0161n\u00edho pr\u016fzkumu pr\u016fzkum\u016f <a href=\"http:\/\/Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b.cz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b.cz<\/a> byly dosud za\u0159azeny pr\u016fzkumy t\u011bchto agentur:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Srovn\u00e1n\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu s\u00a0volebn\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem z\u00a0\u0159\u00edjna 2025 znesnad\u0148uje skute\u010dnost, \u017ee p\u011bt stran, kter\u00e9 \u0161ly do voleb v\u00a0r\u00e1mci koalic&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18515,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[43,42,41,40,2405,5431,174,9314],"class_list":{"0":"post-18514","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-cesko","8":"tag-ceska-republika","9":"tag-cesko","10":"tag-czech-republic","11":"tag-czechia","12":"tag-datavize","13":"tag-politicke-strany","14":"tag-politika","15":"tag-volebni-model-aktualne"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116197715049082153","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18514","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18514"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18514\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18515"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18514"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18514"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18514"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}