Evropsk\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti si b\u011bhem pandemie kv\u016fli omezen\u00e9mu cestov\u00e1n\u00ed a chozen\u00ed do restaurac\u00ed vytvo\u0159ily slu\u0161n\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed rezervy, v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch letech v\u0161ak za\u010daly op\u011bt v\u00edce utr\u00e1cet. Jednou z\u00a0m\u00e1la v\u00fdjimek jsou \u010ce\u0161i, kte\u0159\u00ed d\u00e1l zu\u0159iv\u011b \u0161et\u0159\u00ed a p\u0159edhonili v\u00a0t\u00e9to discipl\u00edn\u011b i jej\u00ed n\u011bkdej\u0161\u00ed rekordmany v sousedn\u00edm N\u011bmecku.<\/p>\n
Vysok\u00e1 m\u00edra soukrom\u00fdch \u00faspor p\u0159edstavuje nespornou v\u00fdhodu v\u00a0dob\u011b hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch kriz\u00ed a rostouc\u00ed nezam\u011bstnanosti, ale tak\u00e9 brzdu pro m\u00edstn\u00ed supermarkety, poskytovatele slu\u017eeb a ekonomiku jako celek. V\u00a0\u010cesku jsou nav\u00edc kv\u016fli da\u0148ov\u00fdm zm\u011bn\u00e1m dopady tohoto trendu velmi nerovnom\u011brn\u00e9 a pol\u0161t\u00e1\u0159e pro hor\u0161\u00ed \u010dasy se nafukuj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm u finan\u010dn\u011b l\u00e9pe zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch rodin.<\/p>\n
B\u011bhem covidov\u00fdch uz\u00e1v\u011br se \u00faspory \u2013 do nich\u017e se krom\u011b \u00falo\u017eek v\u00a0bank\u00e1ch po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed i n\u00e1kupy akci\u00ed \u010di investi\u010dn\u00edch byt\u016f \u2013 v\u00a0cel\u00e9 Evropsk\u00e9 unii v\u010detn\u011b \u010ceska zdvojn\u00e1sobily t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na 25 procent disponibiln\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f. N\u00e1sledn\u011b klesly na pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch zhruba 14 procent, u n\u00e1s se v\u0161ak st\u00e1le dr\u017e\u00ed t\u011bsn\u011b pod 20 procenty. To je po Irsku a Ma\u010farsku nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 v\u00a0sedmadvac\u00edtce a znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee \u010desk\u00e9 rodiny ka\u017ed\u00fd kvart\u00e1l odkl\u00e1daj\u00ed stranou zhruba 80 miliard korun.<\/p>\n
Po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst \u00faspor nastal, kdy\u017e mo\u017enosti utr\u00e1cet byly siln\u011b omezen\u00e9 a vl\u00e1dy p\u0159itom finan\u010dn\u00edmi injekcemi podporovaly pandemi\u00ed ohro\u017een\u00e9 firmy a jejich zam\u011bstnance. \u010cesk\u00e9 \u010di Ma\u010farsk\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti ale z\u016fstaly ve spot\u0159eb\u011b opatrn\u00e9 i pozd\u011bji. V\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b a s n\u00ed spojen\u00e9 drah\u00e9 energie a vlna uprchl\u00edk\u016f dopadly nejtvrd\u011bji pr\u00e1v\u011b na st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropu, kter\u00e1 je konfliktu geograficky nejbl\u00ed\u017ee, a m\u00e1 nav\u00edc s rusk\u00fdm imperialismem vlastn\u00ed neblah\u00e9 historick\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti.<\/p>\n
Ob\u011b zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 zem\u011b tak\u00e9 zas\u00e1hl v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed \u0161ok ne\u017e jejich z\u00e1padn\u00ed sousedy plat\u00edc\u00ed eurem. To d\u00e1le ochromilo kupn\u00ed s\u00edlu a sebev\u011bdom\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u016f a donutilo m\u00edstn\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky k\u00a0mnohem v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Ty ve st\u00e1tech st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropy s\u00a0vlastn\u00edmi m\u011bnami dote\u010f z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed o hodn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v euroz\u00f3n\u011b, co\u017e dom\u00e1cnosti odrazuje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm od n\u00e1kup\u016f na dluh, a naopak zvy\u0161uje atraktivitu spo\u0159ic\u00edch \u00fa\u010dt\u016f \u010di term\u00ednovan\u00fdch vklad\u016f.<\/p>\n
V\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech se nav\u00edc v\u00a0cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b rychle rozm\u00e1haj\u00ed retailov\u00e9 investice do akci\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch produkt\u016f. Ty statistici zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1vaj\u00ed mezi \u00faspory a dnes je jako alternativu k\u00a0bankovn\u00edm vklad\u016fm aktivn\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 polovina \u010cech\u016f.<\/p>\n
Dal\u0161\u00edm \u2013 specificky \u010desk\u00fdm \u2013 faktorem jsou \u00fapravy zdan\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f fyzick\u00fdch osob od roku 2021, je\u017e v\u00a0r\u00e1mci pandemick\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159ijala tehdej\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1da Andreje Babi\u0161e s\u00a0pomoc\u00ed opozi\u010dn\u00ed ODS. Zru\u0161en\u00ed takzvan\u00e9 superhrub\u00e9 mzdy p\u0159edstavuje ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u00ed da\u0148ovou \u00falevu v celkov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161i 130\u2013140 miliard korun \u2013 a to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pro lidi s vysok\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edjmy. Ti tyto dodate\u010dn\u00e9 prost\u0159edky m\u00edsto \u00fatraty typicky ukl\u00e1daj\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b do bank, akci\u00ed nebo nemovitost\u00ed \u2013 co\u017e tak\u00e9 omezilo p\u0159\u00ednos tohoto kroku pro ekonomiku.<\/p>\n
N\u016f\u017eky se d\u00e1l rozev\u00edraj\u00ed<\/p>\n
Jeho dal\u0161\u00edm d\u016fsledkem bylo je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed prohlouben\u00ed rozd\u00edl\u016f v\u00a0bohatstv\u00ed a \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovni. Dom\u00e1cnosti jako celek si za posledn\u00edch \u0161est let vybudovaly bal\u00edk \u00faspor, kter\u00fd je o dva biliony korun v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e za stejn\u011b dlouh\u00e9 obdob\u00ed p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed. Je v\u0161ak nerovnom\u011brn\u011b rozlo\u017een: p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b t\u0159etina rodin \u017eije takzvan\u011b z\u00a0ruky do huby a nem\u00e1 \u00faspory v\u016fbec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9. Tuto ekonomicky zraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed skupinu tak\u00e9 nejv\u00edce zas\u00e1hla infla\u010dn\u00ed vlna z\u00a0let 2022\u20132023, zat\u00edmco lidi s\u00a0vysok\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edjmy p\u0159ed ztr\u00e1tou kupn\u00ed s\u00edly aspo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b ochr\u00e1nilo pr\u00e1v\u011b investov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00faspor.<\/p>\n
Ani v\u00fdnosy z\u00a0t\u011bchto investic ov\u0161em bohat\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti obvykle nepou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebu \u2013 a pokud ano, tak p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na slu\u017eby jako pohostinstv\u00ed, cestov\u00e1n\u00ed, rekreace, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b bankovnictv\u00ed a poradenstv\u00ed. Nen\u00ed proto n\u00e1hoda, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u011bmto odv\u011btv\u00edm se posledn\u00ed dobou da\u0159\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b l\u00e9pe ne\u017e dodavatel\u016fm a prodejc\u016fm potravin \u010di jin\u00e9ho b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed celkov\u00e9 \u00faspory tedy v \u010cesku p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed k relativn\u011b slab\u00e9 spot\u0159eb\u011b, kter\u00e1 se po hlubok\u00e9m propadu z\u00a0let 2022\u20132023 teprve loni vr\u00e1tila na \u00farove\u0148 p\u0159edpandemick\u00e9ho roku 2019. To dopad\u00e1 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na maloobchodn\u00edky \u2013 objemy tr\u017eeb v\u00a0tomto odv\u011btv\u00ed, kam pat\u0159\u00ed rovn\u011b\u017e internetov\u00ed prodejci, jsou dnes o pouh\u00e1 dv\u011b procenta vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v prosinci 2019, by\u0165 ceny jejich zbo\u017e\u00ed od t\u00e9 doby vzrostly t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o 35 procent. Pr\u00e1v\u011b zde uspo\u0159en\u00e9 miliardy chyb\u011bj\u00ed nejciteln\u011bji.<\/p>\n
Kam ale pen\u00edze sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed, kdy\u017e ne do spot\u0159eby? V\u00a0posledn\u00edch dvou letech \u010ce\u0161i zhruba dv\u011b t\u0159etiny \u00faspor ukl\u00e1daj\u00ed tradi\u010dn\u011b na spo\u0159ic\u00ed \u00fa\u010dty a do nemovitost\u00ed. Zbytek m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do akci\u00ed nebo pod\u00edlov\u00fdch fond\u016f, jejich\u017e obliba tak\u00e9 d\u00edky lep\u0161\u00edmu zhodnocen\u00ed v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech stoup\u00e1.<\/p>\n
Rostouc\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed gramotnost a pov\u011bdom\u00ed o investi\u010dn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitostech mezi \u010desk\u00fdmi dom\u00e1cnostmi je veskrze pozitivn\u00ed jev. Probl\u00e9m pro m\u00edstn\u00ed ekonomiku jako celek ov\u0161em tkv\u00ed v tom, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina t\u011bchto pen\u011bz sm\u011b\u0159uje za hranice, a to hlavn\u011b do Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. \u010cesk\u00fd i evropsk\u00fd akciov\u00fd trh je jednodu\u0161e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mal\u00fd a nedostate\u010dn\u011b l\u00e1kav\u00fd, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee soukrom\u00e9 \u00faspory m\u00edsto dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomiky pom\u00e1haj\u00ed financovat expanzi americk\u00fdch technologick\u00fdch gigant\u016f.<\/p>\n
U vklad\u016f na \u010desk\u00e9 spo\u0159ic\u00ed \u00fa\u010dty sice prost\u0159edky v zemi z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed, banky si v\u0161ak \u010dasto st\u011b\u017euj\u00ed, \u017ee nev\u011bd\u00ed co s\u00a0nimi. V\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech toti\u017e kv\u016fli slab\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed aktivit\u011b m\u00edstn\u00edch firem nemaj\u00ed dost smyslupln\u00fdch projekt\u016f, je\u017e by pomoc\u00ed t\u00e9to takzvan\u00e9 p\u0159ebyte\u010dn\u00e9 likvidity mohly podpo\u0159it.<\/p>\n
Realitn\u00ed trh se p\u0159eh\u0159\u00edv\u00e1<\/p>\n
Je\u0161t\u011b men\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00ednos pro dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomiku maj\u00ed obl\u00edben\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy nemovitost\u00ed. Ty toti\u017e v\u00a0kombinaci s\u00a0chronicky nedostate\u010dnou v\u00fdstavbou ve velk\u00fdch m\u011bstech pouze \u017eiv\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159eh\u0159\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed realitn\u00edho trhu \u2013 a \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed bydlen\u00ed d\u00e1le omezuje schopnost dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed s\u00a0ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edjmem utr\u00e1cet za b\u011b\u017enou spot\u0159ebu.<\/p>\n
Ze v\u0161ech t\u011bchto d\u016fvod\u016f je nere\u00e1ln\u00e9 \u010dekat, \u017ee se m\u00edra \u00faspor v\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed dob\u011b vr\u00e1t\u00ed zp\u00e1tky na p\u0159edcovidovou \u00farove\u0148 a dom\u00e1cnosti za\u010dnou o dost v\u00edce utr\u00e1cet. I kdyby \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka v\u00fdrazn\u011bji sn\u00ed\u017eila sazby, kombinace sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho da\u0148ov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u00edry ekonomick\u00e9 nejistoty by tuto m\u00edru nad\u00e1le dr\u017eela nad evropsk\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem \u2013 z\u0159ejm\u011b n\u011bkde kolem 15\u201316 procent p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f.<\/p>\n
Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se zd\u00e1, \u017ee nezbytn\u011b neplat\u00ed m\u00fdtus obl\u00edben\u00fd mezi mnoha koment\u00e1tory, podle n\u011bj\u017e jsou \u010desk\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti v ot\u00e1zce nakl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0pen\u011bzi p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 boj\u00e1cn\u00ed \u010di konzervativn\u00ed. Kulturn\u00ed a historick\u00e9 rozd\u00edly mezi r\u016fzn\u00fdmi \u010d\u00e1stmi sv\u011bta maj\u00ed jist\u011b ur\u010dit\u00fd vliv i na finan\u010dn\u00ed rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich obyvatel. \u010ce\u0161i v\u0161ak v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pom\u011brn\u011b racion\u00e1ln\u011b reaguj\u00ed na dan\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, tedy strach o ztr\u00e1tu zam\u011bstn\u00e1n\u00ed, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed dan\u011b z\u00a0p\u0159\u00edjmu a slu\u0161n\u00e9 potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdnosy na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch.<\/p>\n
Koneckonc\u016f, riziko ztr\u00e1ty zam\u011bstn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti roste a budovat si rezervu na hor\u0161\u00ed \u010dasy d\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u00edra \u00faspor je pozitivn\u00ed i pro lep\u0161\u00ed zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed na st\u00e1\u0159\u00ed \u2013 v\u011bt\u0161ina zam\u011bstnanc\u016f toti\u017e a\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na st\u00e1tn\u00ed d\u016fchod, ten ov\u0161em \u010dasto nedok\u00e1\u017ee pokr\u00fdt v\u0161echny \u017eivotn\u00ed n\u00e1klady. Tyto v\u00fdhody nicm\u00e9n\u011b vzhledem k nerovnom\u011brn\u00e9mu rozlo\u017een\u00ed \u00faspor plat\u00ed jen pro \u010d\u00e1st celkov\u00e9 populace.<\/p>\n
Tom\u00e1\u0161 Dvo\u0159\u00e1k je ekonom z britsk\u00e9 poradensk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti Oxford Economics. V Lond\u00fdn\u011b \u017eije osm let. Specializuje se na tvorbu makroekonomick\u00fdch progn\u00f3z a model\u016f pro st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropu a euroz\u00f3nu. Spolupracuje tak\u00e9 s Centrem ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed na Univerzit\u011b Karlov\u011b a spolkem 2. ekonomick\u00e1 transformace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Evropsk\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti si b\u011bhem pandemie kv\u016fli omezen\u00e9mu cestov\u00e1n\u00ed a chozen\u00ed do restaurac\u00ed vytvo\u0159ily slu\u0161n\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed rezervy, v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":185557,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[412,11611,67,68,42,708,7968,106,69,4403,10687,703],"class_list":["post-185556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-akcie","tag-banka","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-cesko","tag-ekonomika","tag-eurozona","tag-evropa","tag-investice","tag-nemovitost","tag-pandemie","tag-penize"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117126326396169269","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=185556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185556\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/185557"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=185556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=185556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=185556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}