podzimn\u00ed anal\u00fdze upozornila<\/a>, \u017ee je\u0161t\u011b ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2025\u00a0byla m\u00edra \u00faspor zhruba o\u00a0\u0161est procentn\u00edch bod\u016f nad p\u0159edcovidov\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem.<\/p>\nZlom p\u0159i\u0161el s\u00a0covidem<\/p>\n
Zlom v\u00a0chov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010cech\u016f p\u0159i\u0161el v\u00a0roce 2020.\u00a0B\u011bhem lockdown\u016f kv\u016fli \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed covidu lid\u00e9 nemohli utr\u00e1cet za \u0159adu slu\u017eeb, cestov\u00e1n\u00ed nebo volno\u010dasov\u00e9 aktivity, zat\u00edmco jejich p\u0159\u00edjmy neklesaly stejn\u00fdm tempem. \u010cNB tento jev ozna\u010duje jako \u201evynucen\u00e9 \u00faspory\u201c.<\/p>\n
Po odezn\u011bn\u00ed pandemick\u00fdch omezen\u00ed se po\u010d\u00edtalo s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee dom\u00e1cnosti za\u010dnou \u010d\u00e1st nahromad\u011bn\u00fdch pen\u011bz postupn\u011b utr\u00e1cet. Tento n\u00e1vrat v\u0161ak p\u0159ibrzdila v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b, energetick\u00e1 krize a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00e1 vlna vysok\u00e9 inflace.<\/p>\n
Podle anal\u00fdzy \u010cNB za\u010daly dom\u00e1cnosti po pandemii spo\u0159it hlavn\u011b z\u00a0opatrnosti a\u00a0kv\u016fli nejistot\u011b z\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje. Pozd\u011bji se p\u0159idaly vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, kter\u00e9 podle centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky podporovaly spo\u0159en\u00ed d\u00edky \u201eatraktivn\u00edmu zhodnocen\u00ed vklad\u016f na spo\u0159ic\u00edch \u00fa\u010dtech\u201c.<\/p>\n
Vysok\u00e9 \u00faspory p\u0159itom maj\u00ed na celkovou ekonomiku dvoj\u00ed dopad. Dom\u00e1cnostem sice vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed rezervu, z\u00e1rove\u0148 ale mohou tlumit ekonomickou aktivitu.<\/p>\n
Pokud dom\u00e1cnosti p\u0159i stejn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjmech za\u010dnou v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st pen\u011bz ukl\u00e1dat, zb\u00fdv\u00e1 jim m\u00e9n\u011b na b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 v\u00fddaje za zbo\u017e\u00ed a\u00a0slu\u017eby. Kdy\u017e m\u00e9n\u011b utr\u00e1cej\u00ed, firmy \u010del\u00ed slab\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vce, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee sn\u00ed\u017eit jejich tr\u017eby a\u00a0zisky a\u00a0v \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku tak\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy st\u00e1tu z\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch dan\u00ed. To se m\u016f\u017ee projevit i\u00a0ve v\u00fdkonu ekonomiky. \u201eFirmy poci\u0165uj\u00ed ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vku, mohou omezit v\u00fdrobu, investice nebo zam\u011bstnanost,\u201c upozor\u0148uj\u00ed analytici Patria Finance a\u00a0\u010cSOB Finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy.<\/p>\n
Analytici v\u0161ak z\u00e1rove\u0148 upozor\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee nejde za v\u0161ech okolnost\u00ed o\u00a0negativn\u00ed jev. P\u0159i inflaci pobl\u00ed\u017e dvouprocentn\u00edho c\u00edle a\u00a0napjat\u00e9m trhu pr\u00e1ce, kdy je nezam\u011bstnanost n\u00edzk\u00e1 a\u00a0firmy obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b hledaj\u00ed nov\u00e9 zam\u011bstnance, m\u016f\u017ee slab\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159eba naopak zm\u00edr\u0148ovat tlak na dal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst cen a\u00a0p\u0159eh\u0159\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomiky.<\/p>\n
Spot\u0159eba roste, \u010ce\u0161i si ale d\u00e1l odkl\u00e1daj\u00ed<\/p>\n
Dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdhled ekonom\u016f je p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. O\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee spot\u0159eba bude d\u00e1l r\u016fst zejm\u00e9na d\u00edky zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00fdch mezd, tedy v\u00fdd\u011blk\u016f o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch o\u00a0inflaci, zat\u00edmco m\u00edra \u00faspor bude klesat jen pomalu s\u00a0t\u00edm, jak bude ustupovat nejistota dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n
\u201eNa p\u0159edpandemickou \u00farove\u0148 se ale nevr\u00e1t\u00ed,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed analytici. Br\u00e1n\u00ed tomu podle nich tak\u00e9 dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zm\u011bny v\u00a0ekonomice, mimo jin\u00e9 r\u016fst \u010dist\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed po zru\u0161en\u00ed superhrub\u00e9 mzdy v\u00a0roce 2021.<\/p>\n
P\u0159\u00edjmy dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed se p\u0159itom zotavovaly rychleji ne\u017e jejich v\u00fddaje. \u010cNB spo\u010d\u00edtala, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edjem dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed po ode\u010dten\u00ed dan\u00ed a\u00a0zohledn\u011bn\u00ed inflace byl ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2025\u00a0o\u00a07,6\u00a0procenta vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e na konci roku 2019.\u00a0V\u00fddaje o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 o\u00a0r\u016fst cen se p\u0159itom teprve b\u011bhem roku 2025\u00a0dost\u00e1valy do bl\u00edzkosti p\u0159edcovidov\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b.<\/p>\n
Za cel\u00fd lo\u0148sk\u00fd rok podle \u010cesk\u00e9ho statistick\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu spot\u0159eba na obyvatele re\u00e1ln\u011b vzrostla o\u00a0t\u0159i procenta, zat\u00edmco p\u0159\u00edjmy o\u00a01,1\u00a0procenta. Rychlej\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst spot\u0159eby ne\u017e p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f se prom\u00edtl i\u00a0do poklesu m\u00edry \u00faspor, kter\u00e1 v\u0161ak z\u016fstala i\u00a0tak mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b vysok\u00e1.<\/p>\n
Zm\u011bnilo se tak\u00e9 to, kam dom\u00e1cnosti sv\u00e9 \u00faspory ukl\u00e1daj\u00ed. Za pandemie p\u0159ib\u00fdvaly p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pen\u00edze na bankovn\u00edch \u00fa\u010dtech. Od roku 2021\u00a0ale podle \u010cNB roste z\u00e1jem o\u00a0akcie a\u00a0pod\u00edly v\u00a0investi\u010dn\u00edch fondech.<\/p>\n
\u010ce\u0161i v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech pos\u00edlali do akci\u00ed a\u00a0investi\u010dn\u00edch fond\u016f \u010d\u00e1stky odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed zhruba p\u011bti a\u017e \u0161esti procent\u016fm sv\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f po zdan\u011bn\u00ed a\u00a0odvodech. P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b polovina t\u011bchto pen\u011bz sm\u011b\u0159ovala do zahrani\u010d\u00ed. V\u00fdznamn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st \u00faspor d\u00e1l m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed tak\u00e9 do bydlen\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Struktura \u010desk\u00fdch \u00faspor se b\u011bhem posledn\u00edch p\u011bti let v\u00fdrazn\u011b prom\u011bnila. Zat\u00edmco v roce 2020 le\u017eelo na neterm\u00ednovan\u00fdch bankovn\u00edch vkladech t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 54 procent finan\u010dn\u00edch \u00faspor dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, v roce 2025 to bylo 45 procent.Naopak pod\u00edl pen\u011bz v investi\u010dn\u00edch fondech se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zdvojn\u00e1sobil z 11,7 na 22,2 procenta. Bankovn\u00ed vklady p\u0159esto z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed slo\u017ekou finan\u010dn\u00edch \u00faspor \u010desk\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed.Hodn\u011b spo\u0159\u00edme, h\u016f\u0159e zhodnocujeme<\/p>\n
P\u0159es rostouc\u00ed z\u00e1jem o\u00a0investov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 podle Jana Ko\u0159\u00ednka, obchodn\u00edho \u0159editele spo\u0159iteln\u00edho dru\u017estva Artesa, slabinou p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm slo\u017een\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00edho majetku \u010cech\u016f. \u201eSamotn\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161e \u00faspor v\u0161ak nen\u00ed rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 je jejich struktura a\u00a0zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm jsou prost\u0159edky vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny,\u201c upozor\u0148uje.<\/p>\n
Ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0\u0159adou vysp\u011blej\u0161\u00edch evropsk\u00fdch ekonomik podle n\u011bj z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9m finan\u010dn\u00edm majetku v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1ha bankovn\u00edch vklad\u016f, zat\u00edmco jinde dr\u017e\u00ed dom\u00e1cnosti v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st majetku ve fondech, akci\u00edch, dluhopisech nebo penzijn\u00edch produktech. Ko\u0159\u00ednek upozor\u0148uje tak\u00e9 na dopad inflace na pen\u00edze ponechan\u00e9 dlouhodob\u011b na \u00fa\u010dtech.<\/p>\n
\u201eDr\u017eet v\u011bt\u0161inu \u00faspor na b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch a\u00a0spo\u0159ic\u00edch \u00fa\u010dtech v\u00a0prost\u0159ed\u00ed inflace znamen\u00e1, \u017ee re\u00e1ln\u00e1 hodnota pen\u011bz dlouhodob\u011b kles\u00e1 a\u00a0\u010ce\u0161i tak zbyte\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed o\u00a0pen\u00edze,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1. Pro dlouhodob\u00e9 prost\u0159edky proto zd\u016fraz\u0148uje v\u00fdznam investic odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edch rizikov\u00e9mu profilu dom\u00e1cnosti.<\/p>\n
\u00dadaj o\u00a0spo\u0159en\u00ed za celou republiku ale samoz\u0159ejm\u011b neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee si p\u011btinu p\u0159\u00edjmu odkl\u00e1d\u00e1 b\u011b\u017en\u00e1 \u010desk\u00e1 dom\u00e1cnost. Posledn\u00ed detailn\u00ed rozklad pou\u017eit\u00fd \u010cNB vych\u00e1z\u00ed z\u00a0dat za rok 2022\u00a0a\u00a0ukazuje v\u00fdraznou koncentraci nov\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00fdch \u00faspor u\u00a0dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed s\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi p\u0159\u00edjmy. Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e1 p\u011btina \u010cech\u016f tehdy vytv\u00e1\u0159ela 70\u00a0procent nov\u00fdch \u00faspor a\u00a0dv\u011b nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u011btiny dohromady 85\u00a0procent.<\/p>\n
U n\u00edzkop\u0159\u00edjmov\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed byla situace opa\u010dn\u00e1. Kv\u016fli r\u016fstu \u017eivotn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f podle \u010cNB \u201et\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nespo\u0159\u00ed\u201c. Pr\u016fzkumy Evropsk\u00e9 komise podle centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee tak\u00e9 v\u00a0roce 2025\u00a0z\u016fst\u00e1vala tvorba \u00faspor soust\u0159ed\u011bn\u00e1 hlavn\u011b u\u00a0dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed s\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi p\u0159\u00edjmy.<\/p>\n
To z\u00e1rove\u0148 omezuje mo\u017enost, \u017ee by se velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st nahromad\u011bn\u00fdch pen\u011bz rychle p\u0159elila do spot\u0159eby. \u201eNast\u0159\u00e1dan\u00fd pol\u0161t\u00e1\u0159 se tak v\u00a0popt\u00e1vku prom\u011bn\u00ed jen z\u010d\u00e1sti\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0jen tehdy, kdy\u017e ho jeho dr\u017eitel\u00e9 p\u0159estanou vn\u00edmat jako pojistku pro hor\u0161\u00ed \u010dasy,\u201c upozor\u0148uj\u00ed analytici Patria Finance a\u00a0\u010cSOB Finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy. Dom\u00e1cnosti s\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi p\u0159\u00edjmy toti\u017e zpravidla nemaj\u00ed takovou pot\u0159ebu sahat na vytvo\u0159en\u00e9 \u00faspory kv\u016fli b\u011b\u017en\u00fdm v\u00fddaj\u016fm.<\/p>\n
Nov\u00fd norm\u00e1l \u010desk\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed<\/p>\n
Vysok\u00e1 m\u00edra \u00faspor p\u0159itom podle \u010cNB nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt pouze poz\u016fstatkem krizov\u00fdch let. P\u0159isp\u00edvat k\u00a0n\u00ed mohou tak\u00e9 demografick\u00e9 zm\u011bny, nejistota kolem budoucnosti penzijn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed gramotnost nebo snaz\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k\u00a0investov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159es digit\u00e1ln\u00ed platformy.<\/p>\n
\u010cNB p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed, \u017ee vysok\u00e1 m\u00edra \u00faspor se m\u016f\u017ee pro \u010desk\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti st\u00e1t dokonce \u201enov\u00fdm norm\u00e1lem\u201c. To podle n\u00ed z\u00e1rove\u0148 nemus\u00ed znamenat slab\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst spot\u0159eby – pokud budou r\u016fst p\u0159\u00edjmy, mohou dom\u00e1cnosti v\u00edce utr\u00e1cet a\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u011b d\u00e1l odkl\u00e1dat vysokou \u010d\u00e1st pen\u011bz stranou.<\/p>\n
V nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed Zpr\u00e1v\u011b o\u00a0m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice<\/a> z\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edho l\u00e9ta \u010cNB o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 jen velmi pozvoln\u00fd pokles. Z\u00a020\u00a0procent v\u00a0prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2026\u00a0by se m\u00edra \u00faspor m\u011bla b\u011bhem zbytku leto\u0161n\u00edho roku a\u00a0v roce 2027\u00a0sn\u00ed\u017eit zhruba k\u00a019\u00a0procent\u016fm, proto\u017ee spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed m\u00e1 r\u016fst o\u00a0n\u011bco rychleji ne\u017e jejich p\u0159\u00edjmy.<\/p>\nNa historicky vysok\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch ji podle centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky maj\u00ed d\u00e1l udr\u017eovat dlouhodob\u00e9 zm\u011bny ve finan\u010dn\u00edm chov\u00e1n\u00ed dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. Pokud se tento v\u00fdhled napln\u00ed, \u010desk\u00e1 spo\u0159ivost z\u016fstane v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u010ce\u0161i si v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech zvykli nech\u00e1vat stranou nezvykle velkou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f. Co za\u010dalo b\u011bhem pandemie, kdy lid\u00e9…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":185818,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,883,69,703,5503],"class_list":["post-185817","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-finance","tag-investice","tag-penize","tag-sporeni"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117127368823599393","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185817","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=185817"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185817\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/185818"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=185817"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=185817"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=185817"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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