P\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fd verdikt a\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd rozsudek<\/p>\n
Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je kombinovan\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. Nejde prim\u00e1rn\u011b o\u00a0nadbytek oxid uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho, ale o\u00a0\u00fanik metanu, kter\u00fd zafunguje jako urychlova\u010d a\u00a0planetu uvrhne do extr\u00e9mn\u00edho vedra, sucha a\u00a0potravinov\u00e9 krize. To vyvol\u00e1 masovou migraci, v\u00e1lky o\u00a0zdroje, co\u017e ohroz\u00ed sou\u010dasnou civilizaci. P\u0159itom v\u0161ak nejde o\u00a0definitivu, cel\u00e1 Evropa se v\u00a0Saharu neprom\u011bn\u00ed, ale jej\u00ed ji\u017en\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st k\u00a0tomu m\u00e1 u\u017e dnes nebezpe\u010dn\u011b bl\u00edzko. Klimatick\u00e9 modely ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee Evropu ne\u010dek\u00e1 univerz\u00e1ln\u00ed osud, proto\u017ee kontinent se rozd\u011bluje na dv\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti: vyprahl\u00fd, dezertifikac\u00ed (tvorbou pou\u0161t\u011b) ohro\u017een\u00fd jih, a\u00a0tepl\u00fd, ale extr\u00e9mn\u011b de\u0161tiv\u00fd sever.<\/p>\n
Realita budouc\u00edho klimatu: T\u0159i varianty pro Evropu<\/p>\n
1.\u00a0Ji\u017en\u00ed Evropa: Hrozba vzniku (polo)pou\u0161t\u011b<\/p>\n
Ji\u017en\u00ed \u0160pan\u011blsko, It\u00e1lie, \u0158ecko a\u00a0Balk\u00e1n za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed aridizaci (vysu\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed). Klimatick\u00e9 p\u00e1smo Sahary se posouv\u00e1 na sever rychlost\u00ed asi 50\u00a0kilometr\u016f za desetilet\u00ed. \u0160pan\u011blsko u\u017e dnes trp\u00ed drsn\u00fdm \u00fabytkem podzemn\u00edch vod, kter\u00fd zp\u016fsobil degradaci p\u016fdy. Kdy\u017e glob\u00e1ln\u00ed oteplen\u00ed p\u0159es\u00e1hne 2\u00a0\u00b0C, velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Pyrenejsk\u00e9ho poloostrova se prom\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0polopou\u0161\u0165 podobnou severn\u00ed Africe.<\/p>\n
2.\u00a0St\u0159edn\u00ed Evropa: Divok\u00e9 st\u0159\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed extr\u00e9m\u016f<\/p>\n
St\u0159edn\u00ed a\u00a0severn\u00ed \u010cesko a\u00a0jeho z\u00e1padn\u00ed i\u00a0v\u00fdchodn\u00ed soused\u00e9 nebudou m\u00edt p\u00edse\u010dn\u00e9 duny, ale krajina bude vystavena nevyzpytateln\u00e9mu po\u010das\u00ed. Celkov\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00ed \u00fahrn sr\u00e1\u017eek se sice p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nezm\u011bn\u00ed, ale plynul\u00e9 zimn\u00ed sn\u011b\u017een\u00ed a\u00a0m\u00edrn\u00e9 jarn\u00ed de\u0161t\u011b zmiz\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Vyprahlost st\u0159\u00eddan\u00e1 povodn\u011bmi: M\u011bs\u00edce extr\u00e9mn\u00edho vedra a sucha budou p\u0159eru\u0161ov\u00e1ny p\u0159\u00edvalov\u00fdmi de\u0161ti. P\u016fda vyprahl\u00e1 na beton neum\u00ed absorbovat vodu \u201eshora\u201c, co\u017e zp\u016fsob\u00ed bleskov\u00e9 z\u00e1plavy a splavov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farodn\u00e9 zem\u011b.<\/p>\n
3.\u00a0Skandin\u00e1vie a\u00a0Britsk\u00e9 ostrovy: Teplo, ale p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho vody<\/p>\n
Sever m\u00e1 opa\u010dn\u00fd probl\u00e9m. Teplej\u0161\u00ed atmosf\u00e9ra v\u00a0t\u011bchto lokalit\u00e1ch pojme v\u00edce vlhkosti, co\u017e povede k\u00a0masivn\u00edmu n\u00e1r\u016fstu sr\u00e1\u017eek, bou\u0159\u00edm a\u00a0opakovan\u00fdm z\u00e1plav\u00e1m.<\/p>\n
Co to znamen\u00e1 pro zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed a\u00a0produkci potravin?<\/p>\n
Radik\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bnu p\u011bstebn\u00edho pl\u00e1nu. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b ji\u017en\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropy a\u00a0cel\u00e1 ji\u017en\u00ed Evropa bude muset budovat na prost\u0159ed\u00ed nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 velko-sklen\u00edky.<\/p>\n
P\u0159ipomenut\u00ed? Zapome\u0148te na komfort. Klimatizac\u00ed kompletn\u011b vybaven\u00e1 obydl\u00ed pro ka\u017ed\u00e9ho jsou nemysliteln\u00e1 z\u00a0d\u016fvod\u016f ob\u0159\u00ed spot\u0159eby energie a\u00a0paradoxn\u00ed produkce odpadn\u00edho tepla, kter\u00e9 by m\u011bsta uva\u0159ilo. Bude nutn\u00e9 s\u00e1zet suchu odol\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed vysok\u00e9 stromy a\u00a0opustit pr\u016fmysl produkci sladkovodn\u00edch ryb, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm t\u011bch rybni\u010dn\u00edch. Budovy budou muset b\u00fdt obrostl\u00e9 zelen\u00ed a\u00a0na ulic\u00edch aleje. M\u00edsto ropovod\u016f z\u00a0V\u00fdchodu a\u00a0Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu budeme budovat \u201evodovody ze Severu\u201c a\u00a0dov\u00e1\u017eet kvalitn\u00ed \u201eledovcovou\u201c pitnou vodu z\u00a0Islandu nebo Skandin\u00e1vie.<\/p>\n
N\u011bco pro odleh\u010den\u00ed?Nedoporu\u010duji kupovat po sez\u00f3n\u011b zlevn\u011bn\u00e9 zahradn\u00ed baz\u00e9ny \u201eza hubi\u010dku\u201c. Brzy toti\u017e nebudete m\u00edt \u010d\u00edm je napustit.<\/p>\n
ALE! Divok\u00e1 karta, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee situaci obr\u00e1tit<\/p>\n
Do hry vstupuje faktor, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee to pekeln\u00e9 panorama smazat. Kolaps Golfsk\u00e9ho proudu (AMOC). Klimatick\u00e9 studie z\u00a0let 2025\u00a0a\u00a02026\u00a0varuj\u00ed, \u017ee tento syst\u00e9m sl\u00e1bne rychleji, ne\u017e se \u010dekalo. Pokud by zkolaboval \u00fapln\u011b, do Evropy p\u0159estane proudit teplo z\u00a0trop\u016f. A\u00a0co z\u00a0toho? Pou\u0161\u0165 se nekon\u00e1! M\u00edsto Sahary by severn\u00ed a\u00a0st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropu zas\u00e1hlo prudk\u00e9 ochlazen\u00ed, extr\u00e9mn\u011b mraziv\u00e9 zimy a\u00a0sucho podobn\u00e9 klimatu na Sibi\u0159i.<\/p>\n
Teoretick\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed hrozba? Tikaj\u00edc\u00ed bomba METAN<\/p>\n
To, co m\u016f\u017ee ohrozit nejenom Evropu, ale cel\u00fd sv\u011bt, je METAN. V\u00a0obdob\u00ed 20\u00a0let zachyt\u00ed v\u00a0atmosf\u00e9\u0159e asi 80kr\u00e1t v\u00edce tepla ne\u017e oxid uhli\u010dit\u00fd. Jin\u00fdmi slovy? Faktor nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9ho p\u016fsoben\u00ed CO\u2082 se p\u0159ece\u0148uje. Kdyby se oh\u0159\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed Ji\u017en\u00edho oce\u00e1nu zrychlilo, do\u0161lo by k\u00a0rychl\u00e9mu glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed. To nen\u00ed teorie, \u00faniky metanu v\u011bdci u\u017e dlouho sleduj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0Arktid\u011b a\u00a0na Sibi\u0159i.<\/p>\n
Zem\u011b n\u00e1s zni\u010d\u00ed vedrem, mrazem, nebo metanem?Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je kombinace vedra a\u00a0metanu, nikoli mr\u00e1z. Zde je drsn\u00e9 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed:<\/p>\n
1.\u00a0Metan (Nej\u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed spou\u0161t\u011b\u010d)
P\u0159edstavuje extr\u00e9mn\u00ed riziko kv\u016fli schopnosti spustit nezvratnou \u0159et\u011bzovou reakci. Pokud oteplen\u00ed planety zp\u016fsob\u00ed masivn\u00ed rozt\u00e1t\u00ed permafrostu na Sibi\u0159i a\u00a0hydr\u00e1t\u016f metanu na mo\u0159sk\u00e9m dn\u011b, do atmosf\u00e9ry se bleskov\u011b uvoln\u00ed jeho obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed. Jeho n\u00e1hl\u00fd \u00fanik by skokov\u011b a\u00a0nekontrolovateln\u011b zrychlil glob\u00e1ln\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed. Samotn\u00fd plyn n\u00e1s neotr\u00e1v\u00ed, ale zp\u016fsob\u00ed definitivn\u00ed klimatick\u00fd \u0161ok.<\/p>\n
2.\u00a0Vedro(P\u0159\u00edm\u00fd a\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed d\u016fsledek)
Rostouc\u00ed teploty ji\u017e dnes zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed pou\u0161t\u00ed, sucha a\u00a0kolapsy zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed. Kritick\u00fdm bodem je takzvan\u00e1 teplota mokr\u00e9ho teplom\u011bru nad 35\u00a0\u00b0C (kombinace vysok\u00e9ho vedra a\u00a0stoprocentn\u00ed vlhkosti vzduchu). V\u00a0takov\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch se lidsk\u00e9 t\u011blo nedok\u00e1\u017ee chladit pocen\u00edm a\u00a0zdrav\u00fd \u010dlov\u011bk v\u00a0nich bez klimatizace do n\u011bkolika hodin zem\u0159e. Velk\u00e9 oblasti kolem rovn\u00edku se stanou neobyvateln\u00fdmi.<\/p>\n
3.\u00a0Mr\u00e1z(Nejm\u00e9n\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159)
N\u00e1vrat glob\u00e1ln\u00ed doby ledov\u00e9, kter\u00e1 by zni\u010dila lidstvo mrazem, je v\u00a0dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b vylou\u010den\u00fd. Zeslaben\u00ed Golfsk\u00e9ho proudu by sice p\u0159ineslo drsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zimy do Evropy a\u00a0Severn\u00ed Ameriky, ale i\u00a0kdyby Evropa zamrzla, glob\u00e1ln\u011b bude planeta jako celek kv\u016fli sklen\u00edkov\u00fdm plyn\u016fm st\u00e1le teplej\u0161\u00ed. Extr\u00e9mn\u00ed mr\u00e1z tedy lidstvo jako celek glob\u00e1ln\u011b nevyhub\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Zdroje a\u00a0inspirace: \u010cesk\u00e1 televize, National Geographic, Fakta o\u00a0klimatu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"P\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fd verdikt a\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd rozsudek Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je kombinovan\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. Nejde prim\u00e1rn\u011b o\u00a0nadbytek oxid uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho, ale o\u00a0\u00fanik metanu, kter\u00fd zafunguje…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":185924,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[109,108,106,77,437,1716],"class_list":["post-185923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-evropa","tag-europa","tag-europe","tag-evropa","tag-veda","tag-zajimavosti","tag-zivot"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117127710220288125","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=185923"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185923\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/185924"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=185923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=185923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=185923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}