Anal\u00fdzu si tak\u00e9 m\u016f\u017eete poslechnout v\u00a0audioverzi.<\/p>\n
\u010cesko se loni zadlu\u017eilo o\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch 312\u00a0miliard korun a\u00a0celkov\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh p\u0159ekro\u010dil 3,7\u00a0bilionu korun. Kdo ale p\u016fj\u010duje st\u00e1tu, aby mohl fungovat? Jsou to p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b tuzemsk\u00e9 banky, penzijn\u00ed fondy \u010di poji\u0161\u0165ovny. Ale v\u00a0posledn\u00edch dob\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b roste i\u00a0z\u00e1jem zahrani\u010dn\u00edch investor\u016f. Ministerstvo financ\u00ed toho vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 a\u00a0mimo standardn\u00ed aukce prod\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010dile dluhopisy i\u00a0nap\u0159\u00edmo.<\/p>\n
M\u00edra zadlu\u017een\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky loni stoupla na 43,1\u00a0procenta hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu (HDP), p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v\u00a0roce 2023\u00a0to bylo 41,8\u00a0procenta. Na ka\u017ed\u00e9ho obyvatele teoreticky p\u0159ipad\u00e1 dluh p\u0159es 337\u00a0tis\u00edc korun.<\/p>\n
Za n\u00e1r\u016fstem stoj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm schodek st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, kter\u00fd loni dos\u00e1hl 290,7\u00a0miliardy korun. V\u00fddaje na obsluhu dluhu, tedy \u00faroky, kter\u00e9 st\u00e1t za p\u016fj\u010dky plat\u00ed, vzrostly meziro\u010dn\u011b o\u00a0t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 10\u00a0miliard na 98,1\u00a0miliardy korun. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd v\u00fdnos nov\u011b vydan\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f byl 4,21\u00a0procenta ro\u010dn\u011b.<\/p>\n
Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed spekulanti<\/p>\n
A pot\u0159eba st\u00e1tu p\u016fj\u010dovat si nebude klesat. N\u00e1vrh rozpo\u010dtu na leto\u0161n\u00ed rok p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee dluh na konci roku 2026\u00a0dos\u00e1hne t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u010dty\u0159 bilion\u016f korun, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b 3,991\u00a0bilionu. M\u00edra zadlu\u017een\u00ed by m\u011bla p\u0159es\u00e1hnout 44,6\u00a0procenta HDP.<\/p>\n
V posledn\u00edch letech se p\u0159itom schodky rozpo\u010dtu v\u00fdrazn\u011b prohloubily. Zat\u00edmco do roku 2019\u00a0se \u010cesko pohybovalo v\u00a0p\u0159ebytc\u00edch nebo n\u00edzk\u00fdch deficitech, pandemie covidu a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00e1 f\u00e1ze vysok\u00e9 inflace otev\u0159ely n\u016f\u017eky mezi p\u0159\u00edjmy a\u00a0v\u00fddaji st\u00e1tu na \u00farovn\u011b, kter\u00e9 nemaj\u00ed v\u00a0modern\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9 historii obdoby.<\/p>\n
Struktura dr\u017eitel\u016f \u010desk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu se v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech v\u00fdrazn\u011b nezm\u011bnila a\u00a0dominuj\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed instituce. Ke konci leto\u0161n\u00edho ledna dr\u017eely finan\u010dn\u00ed instituce celkem 67\u00a0procent st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed skupinou jsou komer\u010dn\u00ed banky s\u00a0pod\u00edlem p\u0159es 42\u00a0procent, tedy zhruba 1,5\u00a0bilionu korun.<\/p>\n
\u201eTypick\u00fdm kupcem jsou dom\u00e1c\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed instituce, \u0161est z\u00a0deseti kupc\u016f tvo\u0159\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b ony. \u010cty\u0159i z\u00a0deseti jsou banky, jeden z\u00a0deseti penzijn\u00ed fondy,\u201c komentovala strukturu hlavn\u00ed ekonomka Raiffeisenbank Helena Horsk\u00e1. Zaj\u00edmavost\u00ed je, \u017ee mezi zahrani\u010dn\u00edmi investory za posledn\u00edch p\u011bt let zdvojn\u00e1sobily sv\u016fj pod\u00edl investi\u010dn\u00ed fondy ze t\u0159\u00ed na v\u00edce ne\u017e \u0161est procent.<\/p>\n
Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investo\u0159i, takzvan\u00ed nerezidenti, dr\u017e\u00ed necelou \u010dtvrtinu dluhu. Jejich pod\u00edl v\u00fdrazn\u011b kol\u00eds\u00e1 v\u00a0\u010dase: v\u00a0roce 2017, kdy \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka opustila kurzov\u00fd z\u00e1vazek na 27\u00a0korun\u00e1ch za euro, \u0161plhal a\u017e k\u00a029\u00a0procent\u016fm, proto\u017ee zahrani\u010dn\u00ed spekulanti masivn\u011b nakupovali korunov\u00e1 aktiva, aby vyd\u011blali na pos\u00edlen\u00ed koruny. Po uvoln\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1vazku pod\u00edl postupn\u011b klesl, v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech se stabilizoval okolo 25\u00a0procent.<\/p>\n
St\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh v\u00a0\u010d\u00edslechCelkov\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh: 3,678 bilionu K\u010d (43,1 % HDP)Meziro\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst: +312,3 miliardy K\u010dSchodek st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu: 290,7 miliardy K\u010dV\u00fddaje na obsluhu dluhu: 98,1 miliardy K\u010dPr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd v\u00fdnos nov\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f: 4,21 % ro\u010dn\u011bOdhad dluhu na konci 2026: 3,991 bilionu K\u010dZdroj: Ministerstvo financ\u00ed \u010cR, \u00fanor 2026<\/p>\n
Penzijn\u00ed fondy, kter\u00e9 d\u0159\u00edve pat\u0159ily k\u00a0v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm kupc\u016fm st\u00e1tn\u00edch bond\u016f, sv\u016fj pod\u00edl naopak sn\u00ed\u017eily ze 17\u00a0procent v\u00a0roce 2020\u00a0na dne\u0161n\u00edch zhruba 11\u00a0procent. D\u016fvodem je aktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup \u010cech\u016f k\u00a0investov\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0hled\u00e1n\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdnosu p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0akci\u00edch. Poji\u0161\u0165ovny si dr\u017e\u00ed stabiln\u00ed pod\u00edl kolem p\u011bti procent. Dom\u00e1cnosti d\u00edky takzvan\u00fdm Dluhopis\u016fm Republiky nyn\u00ed vlastn\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b dv\u011b procenta dluhu, p\u0159ed p\u011bti lety to bylo jen 1,4\u00a0procenta.<\/p>\n
L\u00e1kav\u00fd c\u00edl<\/p>\n
Samotn\u00ed obchodn\u00edci na trhu s\u00a0dluhopisy popisuj\u00ed posledn\u00edch \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f jako obdob\u00ed nezvykle siln\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky a\u00a0prokazateln\u011b vzrostl hlavn\u011b z\u00e1jem zahrani\u010dn\u00edch investor\u016f. \u201eZa posledn\u00ed rok se jejich procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed dr\u017een\u00ed zv\u011bt\u0161ilo. V\u00a0podstat\u011b \u010dekali sbli\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farok\u016f mezi korunou a\u00a0eurem,\u201c uvedl pro Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy vedouc\u00ed institucion\u00e1ln\u00edho prodeje v\u00a0\u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159iteln\u011b Ond\u0159ej \u010cech.<\/p>\n
Sazby \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky jsou moment\u00e1ln\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u00fd\u0161 ne\u017e sazby v\u00a0euroz\u00f3n\u011b. Investo\u0159i s\u00e1zej\u00ed na to, \u017ee se tento rozd\u00edl zmen\u0161\u00ed\u00a0\u2013 bu\u010f proto\u017ee \u010cNB bude d\u00e1l sni\u017eovat sazby, nebo proto\u017ee ECB sazby naopak zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b oboj\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Za prvn\u00ed dva m\u011bs\u00edce leto\u0161n\u00edho roku p\u0159es\u00e1hly aukce spolu se sekund\u00e1rn\u00edmi prodeji celkov\u00fd objem 100\u00a0miliard korun. \u201eAukce plus sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed prodeje jsou letos u\u017e p\u0159es 100\u00a0miliard korun, co\u017e je pom\u011brn\u011b bezprecedentn\u00ed na to, \u017ee za sebou m\u00e1me teprve dva m\u011bs\u00edce roku. Jde vid\u011bt, \u017ee z\u00e1jem o\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy byl velk\u00fd, ale samoz\u0159ejm\u011b tento z\u00e1jem je cyklick\u00fd,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 trading manager v\u00a0Komer\u010dn\u00ed bance Dalimil Vy\u0161kovsk\u00fd.<\/p>\n
Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 je podle n\u011bho v\u00fd\u0161e takzvan\u00e9ho asset swap spreadu, tedy rozd\u00edlu mezi v\u00fdnosem st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhopisu a\u00a0v\u00fdnosem \u00farokov\u00e9ho deriv\u00e1tu (IRS), kter\u00fd p\u0159edstavuje bezrizikovou referen\u010dn\u00ed sazbu: \u201eV\u017edycky, kdy\u017e takto m\u011b\u0159en\u00fd v\u00fdnos st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f vysko\u010d\u00ed nad n\u011bjakou \u00farove\u0148, vygeneruje to zv\u00fd\u0161enou popt\u00e1vku z\u00a0pohledu zahrani\u010dn\u00edch investor\u016f, co\u017e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee \u010desk\u00e9mu dluhu v\u011b\u0159\u00ed.\u201c<\/p>\n
V sou\u010dasnosti je tento spread na desetilet\u00fdch \u010desk\u00fdch dluhopisech na \u00farovni zhruba 47\u00a0bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f, tedy t\u011bsn\u011b pod hranic\u00ed p\u016fl procentn\u00edho bodu. Tato \u00farove\u0148 je podle Vy\u0161kovsk\u00e9ho jedn\u00edm z\u00a0d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d posledn\u00ed aukce pat\u0159ily k\u00a0nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm za del\u0161\u00ed dobu. <\/p>\n
\u201eProdeje v\u00a0n\u011bjak\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e nevid\u00edme, a\u00a0dokonce ani v\u00a0posledn\u00edch dnech (pot\u00e9, co propukl vojensk\u00fd konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b – pozn. red.) nevid\u00edme roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed kreditn\u00edch spread\u016f,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Vy\u0161kovsk\u00fd.<\/p>\n
MF prod\u00e1v\u00e1 dluhopisy i\u00a0samo<\/p>\n
Krom\u011b standardn\u00edch aukc\u00ed, kde dluhopisy prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed takzvan\u00ed prim\u00e1rn\u00ed deale\u0159i, tedy skupina p\u0159edem vybran\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed s\u00a0licenc\u00ed, za\u010dalo Ministerstvo financ\u00ed (MF) v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech st\u00e1le v\u00edce vyu\u017e\u00edvat i\u00a0p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 prodeje ze sv\u00e9ho portfolia. \u201eMinisterstvo financ\u00ed rozjelo mimo sv\u00e9 prim\u00e1rn\u00ed emise i\u00a0takzvan\u00e9 TAP emise. MF vlastn\u011b m\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9m portfoliu ur\u010dit\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed dluhopis\u016f a\u00a0postupn\u011b je mimo ty klasick\u00e9 prim\u00e1rn\u00ed aukce prod\u00e1v\u00e1, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e objemy t\u011bchto prodej\u016f mimo dealery jsou opravdu velk\u00e9,\u201c popisuje posledn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj \u010cech.<\/p>\n
V\u00fdhodou je flexibilita, kdy se ministerstvo m\u016f\u017ee rozhodnout prodat i\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed den pot\u00e9, co zaregistruje popt\u00e1vku od investor\u016f. Tyto TAP emise funguj\u00ed u\u017e n\u011bkolik let, ale v\u00a0posledn\u00edch dvou letech se podle \u010cecha jejich objem v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161il a\u00a0za posledn\u00ed p\u016flrok doslova explodoval. Aukce trv\u00e1 b\u011b\u017en\u011b pouze n\u011bkolik minut a\u00a0prodan\u00e9 objemy dosahuj\u00ed miliard korun.<\/p>\n
Ministerstvo tak\u00e9 aktivn\u011b prodlu\u017euje splatnost sv\u00e9ho dluhu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm takzvan\u00fdch switch emis\u00ed. \u201eKupuj\u00ed zp\u011bt dluhopisy, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed splatnosti v\u00a0letech 2026\u00a0a\u017e 2027,\u00a0a\u00a0proti tomu v\u00a0n\u011bjak\u00e9m pom\u011bru prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed dluhopisy s\u00a0del\u0161\u00ed splatnost\u00ed, tak\u017ee v\u00a0podstat\u011b dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed trhu likviditu,\u201c popisuje \u010cech.<\/p>\n
Za n\u00e1r\u016fstem z\u00e1jmu ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed nestoj\u00ed retailov\u00ed investo\u0159i ani velk\u00e9 firmy. Typick\u00fdmi kupci jsou velk\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed fondy a\u00a0investi\u010dn\u00ed banky. Podle osloven\u00fdch trader\u016f jsou to hlavn\u011b velk\u00e9 hedgeov\u00e9 fondy typu BlackRock, BlueCrest \u010di Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Asset Management apod., kter\u00e9 spravuj\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed pen\u011bz.<\/p>\n
V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed fondy p\u0159itom m\u00e1lokdy p\u0159istupuj\u00ed k\u00a0\u010desk\u00fdm dluhopis\u016fm jako k\u00a0individu\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00e1zce na \u010cesko. Sp\u00ed\u0161e je nakupuj\u00ed jako sou\u010d\u00e1st region\u00e1ln\u00edho ko\u0161e, vedle Polska nebo Ma\u010farska. \u010cesko si p\u0159itom oproti region\u00e1ln\u00edm soused\u016fm dr\u017e\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed rating.<\/p>\n
Re\u00e1ln\u00e9 riziko<\/p>\n
S p\u0159\u00edlivem zahrani\u010dn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu ov\u0161em p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed i\u00a0riziko, proto\u017ee zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investo\u0159i mohou odej\u00edt stejn\u011b rychle, jako p\u0159i\u0161li. Ukazuje to p\u0159\u00edpad z\u00a0ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 minulosti. \u201eP\u0159ed \u010dty\u0159mi, p\u011bti lety se najednou jeden brazilsk\u00fd fond zbavil ve\u0161ker\u00fdch sv\u00fdch expozic v\u00a0Ma\u010farsku a\u00a0\u010cesku. V\u00fdnosov\u00e9 k\u0159ivky t\u00edm kompletn\u011b zruinoval, jeliko\u017e prod\u00e1val bondy a\u00a0zbavoval se sv\u00e9 expozice na \u00farokov\u00fdch swapech. Ale na druhou stranu tohle jsou z\u00a0hlediska cel\u00e9 historie stra\u0161n\u011b kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 epizody,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 \u010cech.<\/p>\n
V\u00fdhoda \u010desk\u00e9ho dluhopisov\u00e9ho trhu je v\u00a0tom, \u017ee dom\u00e1c\u00ed investo\u0159i\u00a0\u2013 tedy banky, penzijn\u00ed fondy \u010di poji\u0161\u0165ovny\u00a0\u2013 v\u00a0takov\u00e9m momentu nastoup\u00ed jako stabiliza\u010dn\u00ed prvek a\u00a0za\u010dnou nakupovat. V\u00fdkyvy tak trvaj\u00ed dny \u010di t\u00fddny, nikoli m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/p>\n
V\u00fdrazn\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed situaci za\u017eil trh v\u00a0roce 2008.\u00a0Tehdy kreditn\u00ed spread na desetilet\u00fdch dluhopisech vysko\u010dil z\u00a0nuly na 200\u00a0bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f a\u00a0trh se prakticky zbortil.<\/p>\n
I p\u0159esto, \u017ee si st\u00e1t v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech p\u016fj\u010duje ka\u017ed\u00fd rok dal\u0161\u00ed stamiliardov\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1stky, dom\u00e1c\u00ed banky budou schopn\u00e9 rostouc\u00ed objemy st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f nakupovat. \u201eJ\u00e1 si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee t\u011bch \u0159\u00e1dov\u011b 300\u00a0miliard korun ro\u010dn\u011b nen\u00ed zas takov\u00fd masivn\u00ed objem, kter\u00fd by se nedal absorbovat cel\u00fdm bankovn\u00edm sektorem,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Jan Bure\u0161, hlavn\u00ed ekonom \u010cSOB.<\/p>\n
Bure\u0161 upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee s\u00a0nomin\u00e1ln\u00edm r\u016fstem ekonomiky roste i\u00a0absorp\u010dn\u00ed kapacita finan\u010dn\u00edho sektoru. Kl\u00ed\u010dem v\u0161ak podle n\u011bj nen\u00ed absolutn\u00ed objem, ale to, zda trhy v\u011b\u0159\u00ed v\u00a0kredibilitu st\u00e1tu do budoucna: \u201eHodn\u011b z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na tom, jak v\u00e1m ty trhy v\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed jenom na hospoda\u0159en\u00ed v\u00a0jednom roce, ale i\u00a0na tom, jak jste kredibiln\u00ed v\u00a0t\u011bch n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch. Pokud trh nep\u0159ekvap\u00edte v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi \u0161oky, dal\u0161\u00ed kapacita nakupovat nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b mal\u00e1.\u201c<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Anal\u00fdzu si tak\u00e9 m\u016f\u017eete poslechnout v\u00a0audioverzi. \u010cesko se loni zadlu\u017eilo o\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch 312\u00a0miliard korun a\u00a0celkov\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh p\u0159ekro\u010dil 3,7\u00a0bilionu…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1981,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[297,266,3903,17,21,688,16,3737,18,19,22,5339,20],"class_list":{"0":"post-18923","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zpravy","8":"tag-alena-schillerova","9":"tag-andrej-babis","10":"tag-dluhopisy","11":"tag-headlines","12":"tag-hlavni-udalosti","13":"tag-hruby-domaci-produkt-hdp","14":"tag-news","15":"tag-statni-dluh","16":"tag-top-news","17":"tag-top-stories","18":"tag-udalosti-dne","19":"tag-zadluzeni","20":"tag-zpravy"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116199433556790884","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18923"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18923\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}