{"id":191792,"date":"2026-08-26T05:00:13","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T05:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/191792\/"},"modified":"2026-08-26T05:00:13","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T05:00:13","slug":"norsko-tezi-ropu-rychleji-nez-objevuje-nove-zdroje-evrope-hrozi-pokles-dodavek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/191792\/","title":{"rendered":"Norsko t\u011b\u017e\u00ed ropu rychleji, ne\u017e objevuje nov\u00e9 zdroje. Evrop\u011b hroz\u00ed pokles dod\u00e1vek"},"content":{"rendered":"

Norsko m\u016f\u017ee po\u00a0roce 2030 \u010dekat v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pokles t\u011b\u017eby ropy a\u00a0plynu. D\u016fvodem nen\u00ed nedostatek surovin, ale skute\u010dnost, \u017ee t\u011b\u017ea\u0159i\u00a0dnes \u010derpaj\u00ed rychleji, ne\u017e objevuj\u00ed nov\u00e9 zdroje. Upozor\u0148uje na\u00a0to<\/a> nov\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va Norwegian Offshore Directorate.<\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace p\u0159itom vypad\u00e1 velmi dob\u0159e. Produkce ropy byla loni nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed od\u00a0roku 2009 a\u00a0investice do\u00a0norsk\u00e9ho ropn\u00e9ho a\u00a0plyn\u00e1rensk\u00e9ho sektoru maj\u00ed letos dos\u00e1hnout zhruba 25 miliard dolar\u016f. Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st t\u011bchto pen\u011bz\u00a0ale sm\u011b\u0159uje do\u00a0projekt\u016f a\u00a0lo\u017eisek objeven\u00fdch p\u0159ed\u00a0lety.<\/p>\n

Aby t\u011b\u017eba vydr\u017eela i\u00a0po\u00a0konci t\u00e9to dek\u00e1dy, bude pot\u0159eba v\u00fdrazn\u011bji hledat nov\u00e1 lo\u017eiska<\/a>, rychleji rozv\u00edjet ji\u017e objeven\u00e9 zdroje a\u00a0d\u00e1l investovat do\u00a0st\u00e1rnouc\u00edch pol\u00ed a\u00a0infrastruktury.<\/p>\n

Podle norsk\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu by produkce m\u011bla z\u016fstat do\u00a0konce 20. let relativn\u011b stabiln\u00ed. Pot\u00e9 za\u010dne klesat. V\u00a0roce 2035 by m\u011bla dos\u00e1hnout<\/a> zhruba 160 milion\u016f standardn\u00edch metr\u016f krychlov\u00fdch ropn\u00e9ho ekvivalentu ro\u010dn\u011b, co\u017e odpov\u00edd\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b miliard\u011b barel\u016f ropn\u00e9ho ekvivalentu.<\/p>\n

\"Dobr\u00e1<\/a> <\/p>\n

\u00da\u0159ad z\u00e1rove\u0148 vytvo\u0159il t\u0159i\u00a0sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e v\u00fdvoje a\u017e\u00a0do\u00a0roku 2050. Nejde o\u00a0klasick\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy, ale o\u00a0ilustraci toho, co m\u016f\u017ee nastat podle rozsahu pr\u016fzkumu, investic a\u00a0technologick\u00e9ho rozvoje.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0optimistick\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i\u00a0by se\u00a0produkce v\u00a0roce 2050 st\u00e1le dr\u017eela<\/a> na zhruba 65 procentech dne\u0161n\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b. V pesimistick\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by v\u0161ak klesla a\u017e na pouh\u00fdch p\u011bt procent.<\/p>\n

Rozd\u00edl mezi t\u011bmito sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i\u00a0je obrovsk\u00fd. P\u0159i\u00a0stejn\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch ropy a\u00a0plynu odhaduje \u00fa\u0159ad rozd\u00edl v\u00a0\u010dist\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u00e9 hodnot\u011b na\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 344 miliard dolar\u016f. Pokud by optimistick\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 doprov\u00e1zely vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny a\u00a0pesimistick\u00fd naopak ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, rozd\u00edl by se\u00a0vy\u0161plhal a\u017e\u00a0k\u00a0890 miliard\u00e1m dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Norsko st\u00e1le ukr\u00fdv\u00e1 obrovsk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby <\/p>\n

Norsku p\u0159itom suroviny nedoch\u00e1zej\u00ed. Na\u00a0norsk\u00e9m kontinent\u00e1ln\u00edm \u0161elfu podle \u00fa\u0159adu zb\u00fdv\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b sedm miliard<\/a> standardn\u00edch metr\u016f krychlov\u00fdch ropn\u00e9ho ekvivalentu, tedy asi 44 miliard barel\u016f. Zhruba polovina p\u0159ipad\u00e1 na ji\u017e identifikovan\u00e9 z\u00e1soby a zdroje, druh\u00e1 polovina na lo\u017eiska, kter\u00e1 teprve \u010dekaj\u00ed na objeven\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9mem je jejich dostupnost a\u00a0ekonomika. Severn\u00ed mo\u0159e je u\u017e vysp\u011blou t\u011b\u017eebn\u00ed oblast\u00ed s\u00a0hustou infrastrukturou, kter\u00e1 umo\u017e\u0148uje p\u0159ipojovat men\u0161\u00ed nov\u00e1 lo\u017eiska k\u00a0existuj\u00edc\u00edm plo\u0161in\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1l m\u00e1 naopak Barentsovo mo\u0159e. \u0158ada oblast\u00ed tam ale z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 neprozkouman\u00e1 a\u00a0omezen\u00e9 kapacity pro\u00a0v\u00fdvoz plynu sni\u017euj\u00ed ekonomickou hodnotu p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdch objev\u016f.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m p\u0159edstavuje \u00fabytek t\u011b\u017ea\u0159\u016f. <\/p>\n

V\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti je jedin\u00fdm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm pro\u00a0v\u00fdvoz plynu v\u00a0Barentsov\u011b mo\u0159i\u00a0LNG termin\u00e1l Hammerfest. Ten pln\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 pole Sn\u00f8hvit. Pokud by vznikla dal\u0161\u00ed exportn\u00ed kapacita, mohla by podle \u00fa\u0159adu urychlit t\u011b\u017ebu z\u00a0existuj\u00edc\u00edch i\u00a0budouc\u00edch lo\u017eisek o\u00a020 a\u017e\u00a030 let.<\/p>\n

Norsko p\u0159itom v\u00ed, \u017ee pr\u016fzkum se\u00a0vypl\u00e1c\u00ed. V\u00a0letech 2000 a\u017e\u00a02025 bylo na\u00a0\u0161elfu vyvrt\u00e1no zhruba 730 pr\u016fzkumn\u00fdch vrt\u016f a\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b polovina z\u00a0nich vedla k\u00a0objevu.<\/p>\n

Podle \u00fa\u0159adu tento pr\u016fzkum vytvo\u0159il \u010distou sou\u010dasnou hodnotu t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 430 miliard dolar\u016f. Ka\u017ed\u00fd investovan\u00fd dolar tak v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru vytvo\u0159il zhruba \u010dty\u0159i\u00a0dolary hodnoty.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee\u00a0t\u011b\u017ea\u0159i\u00a0se\u00a0st\u00e1le v\u00edce soust\u0159ed\u00ed na\u00a0oblasti v\u00a0bl\u00edzkosti existuj\u00edc\u00edch pol\u00ed a\u00a0infrastruktury. Takov\u00fd pr\u016fzkum je m\u00e9n\u011b rizikov\u00fd a\u00a0objevy se\u00a0daj\u00ed rychleji p\u0159ipojit k\u00a0t\u011b\u017eb\u011b. \u010casto jsou ale mal\u00e9 a\u00a0nedok\u00e1\u017eou nahradit produkci velk\u00fdch lo\u017eisek.<\/p>\n

Hra o\u00a0infrastrukturu <\/p>\n

V\u00fdznamn\u00fd potenci\u00e1l st\u00e1le maj\u00ed tak\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u00e1 pole. Firmy loni p\u0159edlo\u017eily p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 145 projekt\u016f na\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby, kter\u00e9 dohromady p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed asi 1,76 miliardy barel\u016f ropn\u00e9ho ekvivalentu. V\u00edce ne\u017e 60 procent norsk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 produkce v\u00a0roce 2025 nav\u00edc poch\u00e1zelo z\u00a0vrt\u016f vyhlouben\u00fdch po\u00a0roce 2020.<\/p>\n

Vedle toho \u010dek\u00e1 na\u00a0rozvoj v\u00edce ne\u017e 90 ji\u017e objeven\u00fdch lo\u017eisek s\u00a0celkov\u00fdmi zdroji p\u0159es\u00a03,1 miliardy barel\u016f ropn\u00e9ho ekvivalentu. V\u011bt\u0161ina z\u00a0nich je ale mal\u00e1 a\u00a0ekonomicky z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na\u00a0existuj\u00edc\u00ed infrastruktu\u0159e.<\/p>\n

Pokud se\u00a0plo\u0161iny, potrub\u00ed nebo zpracovatelsk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed uzav\u0159ou d\u0159\u00edve, mohou tato lo\u017eiska p\u0159ij\u00edt o\u00a0jedinou smysluplnou cestu k\u00a0t\u011b\u017eb\u011b.<\/p>\n

\"Ropa<\/a> <\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m p\u0159edstavuje \u00fabytek t\u011b\u017ea\u0159\u016f. Po\u010det spole\u010dnost\u00ed p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00edch na\u00a0norsk\u00e9m \u0161elfu se\u00a0od\u00a0roku 2013 v\u00edce ne\u017e rozp\u016flil. Trhu nyn\u00ed dominuj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm Equinor, Aker BP a\u00a0V\u00e5r Energi. V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed koncentrace m\u016f\u017ee usnadnit realizaci projekt\u016f, z\u00e1rove\u0148 ale znamen\u00e1 m\u00e9n\u011b konkurence a\u00a0men\u0161\u00ed rozmanitost p\u0159i\u00a0hled\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch lo\u017eisek.<\/p>\n

Pokles norsk\u00e9 t\u011b\u017eby je podle \u00fa\u0159adu z\u00a0dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska nevyhnuteln\u00fd. Kl\u00ed\u010dovou ot\u00e1zkou je, jak rychl\u00fd bude. Rozhodnut\u00ed p\u0159ijat\u00e1 dnes \u2013 kam sm\u011b\u0159ovat pr\u016fzkum, jak rychle rozv\u00edjet objeven\u00e1 lo\u017eiska, jak dlouho udr\u017eet infrastrukturu a\u00a0zda nov\u00e9 technologie dok\u00e1\u017eou zp\u0159\u00edstupnit dosud neekonomick\u00e9 zdroje \u2013 mohou rozhodnout o\u00a0tom, zda p\u016fjde o\u00a0pozvoln\u00fd \u00fastup, nebo prudk\u00fd propad.<\/p>\n

Norsko m\u00e1 st\u00e1le dostatek ropy a\u00a0plynu, aby z\u016fstalo v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm producentem po\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed desetilet\u00ed. Co u\u017e ale nem\u00e1, je neomezen\u00fd \u010das na\u00a0to, aby tyto zdroje prom\u011bnilo v\u00a0t\u011b\u017ebu.<\/p>\n

\"Goldman<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Norsko m\u016f\u017ee po\u00a0roce 2030 \u010dekat v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pokles t\u011b\u017eby ropy a\u00a0plynu. D\u016fvodem nen\u00ed nedostatek surovin, ale skute\u010dnost, \u017ee t\u011b\u017ea\u0159i\u00a0dnes…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":191793,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[44523,27390,44511,25073,109,108,106,44520,44519,34668,44517,33875,44513,44507,44509,44508,3065,33879,25075,44512,25104,44522,16970,44515,44514,44521,33670,44510,44518,44506,44516,44505,44524],"class_list":["post-191792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-evropa","tag-aker-bp","tag-barentsovo-more","tag-dodavky-plynu-z-norska","tag-equinor","tag-europa","tag-europe","tag-evropa","tag-loziska-plynu-norsko","tag-loziska-ropy-norsko","tag-norska-energetika","tag-norska-energetika-2050","tag-norska-ropa","tag-norska-ropa-a-plyn","tag-norska-tezba","tag-norske-zasoby-plynu","tag-norske-zasoby-ropy","tag-norsko","tag-norsky-kontinentalni-self","tag-norsky-plyn","tag-norwegian-offshore-directorate","tag-nove-zdroje-plynu","tag-nove-zdroje-ropy","tag-plyn-evropa","tag-produkce-plynu-norsko","tag-produkce-ropy-norsko","tag-pruzkum-plynu","tag-pruzkum-ropy","tag-ropa-evropa","tag-severni-more-ropa","tag-tezba-plynu-v-norsku","tag-tezba-ropy-po-roce-2030","tag-tezba-ropy-v-norsku","tag-var-energi"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191792","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191792"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191792\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/191793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}