Nen\u00ed to revoluce. Je\u0161t\u011b ne. Zinscenovan\u00e9 volby do rusk\u00e9ho parlamentu, St\u00e1tn\u00ed dumy, p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc pochopiteln\u011b \u017e\u00e1dnou zm\u011bnu nep\u0159inesou. P\u0159ib\u00fdv\u00e1 ale sign\u00e1l\u016f, \u017ee se pod povrchem spole\u010dnosti p\u0159idu\u0161en\u00e9 hrozbami repres\u00ed a t\u011b\u017ekou ideologickou indoktrinac\u00ed za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 n\u011bco d\u00edt.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Dva p\u0159\u00edklady posledn\u00edch dn\u00ed ukazuj\u00ed, jak se v Rusku v\u011bci d\u011bj\u00ed mimo autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdm a represivn\u00edm re\u017eimem p\u0159edepsan\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. A jak je Kreml z t\u00e9to improvizace d\u011bjin a p\u0159edstavy, \u017ee n\u011bco nebude m\u00edt pod kontrolou, \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l v\u00edc nerv\u00f3zn\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Obraz prvn\u00ed: Andrej Klepa\u010d, v\u0161eobecn\u011b respektovan\u00fd technokrat, b\u00fdval\u00fd n\u00e1m\u011bstek ministra pro ekonomick\u00fd rozvoj, p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed o m\u00edsto hlavn\u00edho ekonoma st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozvojov\u00e9 banky \u0412\u042d\u0411. O post, na kter\u00e9m sed\u011bl posledn\u00edch 12 let, podle v\u0161eho p\u0159i\u0161el kv\u016fli\u00a0projevu<\/a>, jej\u017e pronesl u\u017e v kv\u011btnu. Varoval v n\u011bm, \u017ee v\u00e1lka s Ukrajinou sice Rusko nezruinuje, ale m\u016f\u017ee ho p\u0159iv\u00e9st do hlubok\u00e9 spole\u010densk\u00e9 krize. V opot\u0159ebovac\u00edm konfliktu Rusko ztr\u00e1c\u00ed dech na technologick\u00e9 a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 \u00farovni nejen proti USA, ale dokonce i proti z\u00e1padn\u00edmi partnery podporovan\u00e9 Ukrajin\u011b. Podle Klepa\u010de kon\u010d\u00ed doba r\u016fstu a znovu se za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed rozev\u00edrat n\u016f\u017eky nerovnosti. Ekonomick\u00fd kolaps podle n\u011bj zat\u00edm sice nehroz\u00ed, ale publiku shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9mu v Nikitsk\u00e9m klubu p\u0159i moskevsk\u00e9 burze p\u0159ipomn\u011bl, \u017ee ani revoluci v roce 1917 tehdy nikdo ne\u010dekal.<\/p>\n Obraz druh\u00fd: V pond\u011bl\u00ed rusk\u00fd Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed soud\u00a0potvrdil<\/a>\u00a0rozhodnut\u00ed, kter\u00fdm o t\u00fdden d\u0159\u00edve zru\u0161il registraci Jabloka \u2013 etablovan\u00e9, ale dlouhodob\u011b politicky nev\u00fdznamn\u00e9 opozi\u010dn\u00ed strany \u2013 pro nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed volby do dumy. \u0158\u00edzen\u00ed bylo vedeno na z\u00e1klad\u011b \u017ealoby re\u017eimu loaj\u00e1ln\u00ed strany Vlast (\u0420\u043e\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0430). Ta Jabloko obvinila \u2013 \u0159ekn\u011bme rovnou, \u017ee absurdn\u011b \u2013 z poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed autorsk\u00fdch pr\u00e1v v p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed kampani. Soud ale\u00a0p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dila<\/a>: Jabloko podle n\u011bj protipr\u00e1vn\u011b u\u017e\u00edvalo chr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fdch materi\u00e1l\u016f, z nich\u017e n\u011bkter\u00e9 p\u0159itom generoval ChatGPT. P\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, b\u011bhem n\u011bho\u017e bylo venku zat\u010deno n\u011bkolik des\u00edtek p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016f strany,\u00a0zm\u00ednili<\/a>\u00a0nav\u00edc z\u00e1stupci \u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed volebn\u00ed komise \u2013 t\u00e9\u017ee instituce, kter\u00e1 jen p\u00e1r t\u00fddn\u016f p\u0159edt\u00edm registraci Jabloka p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b schv\u00e1lila \u2013, \u017ee maj\u00ed v ruce \u201ed\u016fkazy\u201c o jeho financov\u00e1n\u00ed ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n M\u00edstop\u0159edseda strany, Lev \u0160losberg, byl t\u00e9ho\u017e dne v Pskov\u011b odsouzen k 11 let\u016fm v\u011bzen\u00ed za \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed \u201efale\u0161n\u00fdch informac\u00ed\u201c o rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b a vol\u00e1n\u00ed po tom, aby na Ukrajin\u011b co nejd\u0159\u00edv utichly zbran\u011b.<\/p>\n Hlavn\u011b se dr\u017eet sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e<\/p>\n Klepa\u010d\u016fv vyhazov se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt na prvn\u00ed pohled t\u011b\u017eko pochopiteln\u00fd. Ano, hodnocen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky, je\u017e v projevu p\u0159edlo\u017eil, bylo pesimistick\u00e9. Nijak dramaticky se v\u0161ak neli\u0161ilo od p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed\u00a0vl\u00e1dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0nebo centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky.\u00a0<\/p>\n Rostouc\u00ed nerovnost, by\u0165 politicky citliv\u00e9 t\u00e9ma, je tak\u00e9 t\u011b\u017eko zpochybniteln\u00e1. Nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed mzdy se sice od roku 2022 skoro zdvojn\u00e1sobily, jen\u017ee r\u016fst se st\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fdrazn\u011b nerovnom\u011brn\u00fdm: kv\u016fli nedostatku pracovn\u00edch sil mzdy nep\u0159ekvapiv\u011b vysko\u010dily nejv\u00edc v odv\u011btv\u00edch napojen\u00fdch na zbrojn\u00ed v\u00fdrobu.\u00a0<\/p>\n Klepa\u010dova \u0159e\u010d neobsahovala ani kritiku re\u017eimu \u010di v\u00e1lky samotn\u00e9.<\/p>\n Jen\u017ee p\u0159i\u0161la ve \u0161patn\u00fd \u010das, kdy re\u017eim ztr\u00e1c\u00ed jistotu. Ritu\u00e1ln\u00ed represe tak byla pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vzkazem do vlastn\u00edch \u0159ad re\u017eimn\u00edch technokrat\u016f: nevesel\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy Kreml je\u0161t\u011b skousnout m\u016f\u017ee, ale meditace o tom, \u017ee mohou p\u0159isp\u011bt ke spole\u010densk\u00e9 krizi, u\u017e jsou jednozna\u010dn\u011b za hranou.<\/p>\n Z\u00e1rove\u0148 prob\u00edh\u00e1 okle\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed autonomie ekonomick\u00fdch technokrat\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed pom\u00e1hali rusk\u00e9 ekonomice \u010delit ot\u0159es\u016fm spojen\u00fdm s d\u016fsledky rozpoutan\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v\u010detn\u011b sankc\u00ed. Rusk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka pod taktovkou prvn\u00ed z t\u011bchto technokrat\u016f, Elviry Nabiullinov\u00e9, v \u010dervnu\u00a0d\u00e1le sn\u00ed\u017eila<\/a>\u00a0v\u00fdhled hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu: p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee ekonomika bude stagnovat, s r\u016fstem nejv\u00fd\u0161e jedno procento hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu, ale patrn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b. Dom\u00e1cnosti, podniky i trhy o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed krom\u011b toho\u00a0podle<\/a>\u00a0\u010dervencov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy t\u00e9\u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky v\u00fdrazn\u00fd r\u016fst inflace v d\u016fsledku palivov\u00e9 krize, zat\u00edmco d\u016fv\u011bra spot\u0159ebitel\u016f kles\u00e1.<\/p>\n Jen\u017ee Kreml z\u00e1rove\u0148 podl\u00e9h\u00e1 tlaku velk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch podnik\u016f a otev\u0159en\u011bji na banku v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b tla\u010d\u00ed, aby sni\u017eovala kl\u00ed\u010dovou \u00farokovou sazbu, kter\u00e1 je nyn\u00ed na 14 procentech. Expertn\u00ed pohled na ekonomiku je jedna v\u011bc, politick\u00e9 zad\u00e1n\u00ed druh\u00e1.<\/p>\n Opozici nepot\u0159ebujeme<\/p>\n Pokud jde o Jabloko, to \u017e\u00e1dnou skute\u010dnou opozic\u00ed nen\u00ed. Strana zalo\u017een\u00e1 v roce 1993 je sice v Rusku i v\u00a0zahrani\u010d\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e1, dlouhodob\u011b ale margin\u00e1ln\u00ed. Od roku 2007 nem\u00e1 v\u00a0dum\u011b jedin\u00e9ho poslance a v\u00a0posledn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch v roce 2021 z\u00edskala 1,34 procenta.\u00a0<\/p>\n Nomin\u00e1ln\u011b jde o stranu \u201eliber\u00e1ln\u00ed\u201c. D\u016fvod, pro\u010d dosud v autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m st\u00e1t\u011b p\u0159e\u017e\u00edv\u00e1, je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba hledat v\u00a0kombinaci dvou faktor\u016f. Na jednu stranu vytv\u00e1\u0159ela zd\u00e1n\u00ed politick\u00e9 plurality \u2013 z\u00a0hlediska putinovsk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 teorie cosi pot\u0159ebn\u00e9ho ke\u00a0stabilizaci syst\u00e9mu moci, evidentn\u011b na rozd\u00edl od nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky. Na druhou stranu ale re\u017eim otev\u0159en\u011b nekonfrontovala a odm\u00edtala spolupr\u00e1ci s\u00a0jin\u00fdmi opozi\u010dn\u00edmi silami v\u010detn\u011b Alexeje Navaln\u00e9ho, jeho\u017e vdova Julija navzdory tomu letos vyzvala voli\u010de, aby te\u010f vyj\u00e1d\u0159ili re\u017eimu ned\u016fv\u011bru t\u00edm, \u017ee hlas Jabloku daj\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n Jabloko bylo ochotn\u00e9 skousnout i to, \u017ee jeho p\u0159edseda Nikolaj Rybakov a dva m\u00edstop\u0159edsedov\u00e9, \u0160losberg \u2013 je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed sv\u00fdm odsouzen\u00edm \u2013 a Vi\u0161n\u011bvskij, by v\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edch volb\u00e1ch nesm\u011bli kandidovat coby \u00fa\u0159ady ozna\u010den\u00ed \u201ezahrani\u010dn\u00ed agenti\u201c.<\/p>\n Strana se v\u0161ak stala pro Putin\u016fv re\u017eim nebezpe\u010dnou sv\u00fdm jasn\u00fdm a v\u011brohodn\u00fdm postojem proti v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b. Nav\u00e1zala t\u00edm na sv\u016fj historick\u00fd odpor proti v\u00e1lce v\u00a0\u010ce\u010densku v\u00a0devades\u00e1t\u00fdch letech, anexi Krymu v roce 2014 i\u00a0vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0z\u00a0\u00fanora 2022, kdy plnohodnotnou ruskou invazi ozna\u010dila za zlo\u010din, kter\u00fd se protiv\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00edm z\u00e1jm\u016fm Ruska a ni\u010d\u00ed jeho budoucnost.<\/p>\n Kdy\u017e \u00fa\u0159ady letos v\u00a0\u010dervenci kandid\u00e1tku Jabloka schv\u00e1lily, mohlo j\u00edt bu\u010f o syst\u00e9movou chybu, nebo o snahu vytvo\u0159it ne\u0161kodn\u00fd ventil pro spole\u010denskou nespokojenost.<\/p>\n V\u00a0tom p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se ov\u0161em re\u017eim p\u0159epo\u010d\u00edtal. \u0160\u00ed\u0159\u00edc\u00ed se \u00fanava z\u00a0v\u00e1lky vytvo\u0159ila dynamiku, v n\u00ed\u017e se Jabloko rychle stalo, soud\u011b podle cvrkotu a vir\u00e1ln\u00edho obsahu na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch, p\u0159ita\u017elivou opozi\u010dn\u00ed silou. A to nejen pro sv\u00e9 star\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edznivce, ale i pro mlad\u00e9 voli\u010de nespokojen\u00e9 s\u00a0autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdmi praktikami, jako je zablokov\u00e1n\u00ed internetu, a ob\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed se nov\u00e9 mobilizace na ukrajinskou frontu.<\/p>\n A a\u0165 u\u017e chyba vznikla z\u00a0ned\u016fslednosti, nebo p\u0159epo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed se, soud ji rychle pomohl napravit. Re\u017eim toti\u017e mo\u017enost, \u017ee se by\u0165 i skromn\u00e1 podpora Jabloka p\u0159etav\u00ed ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed soci\u00e1ln\u00ed protestn\u00ed hnut\u00ed, nemohl p\u0159ipustit.\u00a0<\/p>\n Konec \u0161patn\u00fd, ale kdy?<\/p>\n Rusk\u00e1 ekonomika nen\u00ed v dobr\u00e9 kondici \u2013 na tom se shodnou skoro v\u0161ichni. Stagnace, nedostatek pracovn\u00edch sil, n\u00edzk\u00e1 produktivita, st\u00e1tn\u00ed zdroje investovan\u00e9 do vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fdroby s n\u00edzkou p\u0159idanou hodnotou, nezkrotiteln\u00e1 inflace, mal\u00e9 investice a prohlubuj\u00edc\u00ed se deficit ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed nezachr\u00e1n\u00ed ani injekce z vyst\u0159elen\u00fdch cen ropy v d\u016fsledku krize v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu.\u00a0<\/p>\n Ekonomick\u00e9 probl\u00e9my zem\u011b jsou struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed a rusk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost a firmy je za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l v\u00edce poci\u0165ovat, stejn\u011b jako rostouc\u00ed n\u00e1klady v\u00e1lky. Ty se prom\u00edtaj\u00ed do inflace i dan\u00ed, zat\u00edmco odpov\u011bdnost za zabezpe\u010den\u00ed proti ukrajinsk\u00fdm dron\u016fm se p\u0159en\u00e1\u0161\u00ed na samotn\u00e9 podniky a provozy, kter\u00e9 dnes proti t\u00e9to hrozb\u011b v Rusku nikdo nepojist\u00ed.<\/p>\n Nen\u00ed snadn\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bt, kdy a jak se tyto probl\u00e9my p\u0159etav\u00ed bu\u010f ve zm\u011bnu rusk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky, nebo p\u0159\u00edmo ve zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu. Pro Ukrajinu i NATO z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed v tom, \u017ee Kreml, vida zav\u00edraj\u00edc\u00ed se domn\u011bl\u00e9 okno p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti naplnit sv\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 c\u00edle zni\u010dit ukrajinskou suverenitu a rozb\u00edt NATO a EU, m\u016f\u017ee konflikt\u00a0eskalovat<\/a>, a to tak\u00e9 za ukrajinsk\u00e9 hranice.<\/p>\n Re\u017eim je v\u0161ak nerv\u00f3zn\u00ed a ztr\u00e1c\u00ed jistotu. Z\u010d\u00e1sti je za t\u00edm jist\u011b jeho vrozen\u00e1 paranoia. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 ale c\u00edt\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00fd v\u00e1nek, kter\u00fd v rusk\u00fdch d\u011bjin\u00e1ch u\u017e mnohokr\u00e1t zes\u00edlil v revolu\u010dn\u00ed vichr.<\/p>\n Ond\u0159ej Ditrych vede anal\u00fdzu Ruska a v\u00fdchodn\u00edho sousedstv\u00ed v Institutu bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch studi\u00ed EU v Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei a p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed o velmocensk\u00fdch konfliktech na tam\u011bj\u0161\u00ed Sciences Po. Je b\u00fdval\u00fdm \u0159editelem \u00dastavu mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztah\u016f v Praze. P\u016fsobil t\u00e9\u017e na vrchn\u00edm velitelstv\u00ed spojeneck\u00fdch sil NATO nebo v Belfer Center na Harvardov\u011b univerzit\u011b.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nen\u00ed to revoluce. Je\u0161t\u011b ne. Zinscenovan\u00e9 volby do rusk\u00e9ho parlamentu, St\u00e1tn\u00ed dumy, p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc pochopiteln\u011b \u017e\u00e1dnou zm\u011bnu nep\u0159inesou.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":191923,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[11],"tags":[685,708,41962,679,1728,1730,61,54,110,645,959,53,52],"class_list":["post-191922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-svet","tag-centralni-banka","tag-ekonomika","tag-jabloko","tag-krize","tag-moskevsky-kreml","tag-ruska-invaze-na-ukrajinu","tag-rusko","tag-svet","tag-ukrajina","tag-valka","tag-volby","tag-world","tag-world-news"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117160606813482535","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191922","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191922"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191922\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/191923"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}