{"id":193951,"date":"2026-08-27T22:15:10","date_gmt":"2026-08-27T22:15:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/193951\/"},"modified":"2026-08-27T22:15:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-27T22:15:10","slug":"nahradi-ai-80-procent-pracovnich-mist-hrozi-ekonomicke-otresy-ale-i-prulom-ve-zdravotnictvi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/193951\/","title":{"rendered":"Nahrad\u00ed AI 80 procent pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst? Hroz\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 ot\u0159esy, ale i pr\u016flom ve zdravotnictv\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"

V pr\u016fb\u011bhu d\u011bjin byly hnac\u00ed silou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch prom\u011bn lidstva, a\u0165 u\u017e k lep\u0161\u00edmu, \u010di k hor\u0161\u00edmu, t\u0159i faktory: nemoci, v\u00e1lky a ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst. Na ka\u017ed\u00fd z nich bude m\u00edt z\u00e1sadn\u00ed dopad um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence, a to v d\u016fsledku sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f a zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed dostupnosti a produktivity \u0161irok\u00e9 \u0161k\u00e1ly zbo\u017e\u00ed i slu\u017eeb.<\/p>\n

Lidstvo v\u00a0historii potkalo mnoho morov\u00fdch epidemi\u00ed a pandemi\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zm\u011bnily trajektorii r\u016fstu populace. Nap\u0159\u00edklad v letech 1346\u20131353 zabila \u010dern\u00e1 smrt v Evrop\u011b, Asii, na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a v severn\u00ed Africe\u00a075\u2013200 milion\u016f lid\u00ed<\/a>.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1sledkem technologick\u00e9ho pokroku a l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00fdch inovac\u00ed, d\u00edky nim\u017e se prodlou\u017eila pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 d\u00e9lka \u017eivota a klesla kojeneck\u00e1 \u00famrtnost,\u00a0vzrostla sv\u011btov\u00e1 populace<\/a>\u00a0v letech 1804\u20131927 z jedn\u00e9 miliardy na dv\u011b a dnes u\u017e \u010din\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e osm miliard. Vyn\u00e1lez \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fdch antikoncep\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f z\u00e1rove\u0148 pomohl r\u016fst populace omezit.<\/p>\n

Lidstvo si od um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence (AI) slibuje, \u017ee tento pokrok urychl\u00ed a zlep\u0161\u00ed kvalitu i d\u00e9lku \u017eivota prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm preventivn\u00ed diagnostiky, rychlej\u0161\u00edho objevov\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch l\u00e9k\u016f a l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00e9 p\u00e9\u010de p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00e9 pot\u0159eb\u00e1m jednotlivce. AI by tak mohla sn\u00ed\u017eit ztr\u00e1ty na \u017eivotech i ekonomick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady spojen\u00e9 s neinfek\u010dn\u00edmi chorobami, jako je rakovina a neurodegenerativn\u00ed poruchy mozku, nap\u0159\u00edklad Alzheimerova choroba. Mohla by rovn\u011b\u017e umo\u017enit rychlej\u0161\u00ed reakci na epidemie infek\u010dn\u00edch nemoc\u00ed, jestli\u017ee by p\u0159edpov\u00eddala, kam se viry pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed a jak by se mohly vyv\u00edjet jejich mutace. U\u017e nyn\u00ed se um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00a0boji proti antimikrobi\u00e1ln\u00ed rezistenci<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00ednos AI by mohl spo\u010d\u00edvat v\u00a0z\u00e1sadn\u00edm sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f na zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010di, na n\u011b\u017e technologick\u00fd pokrok dosud nem\u011bl v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vliv. Jak uk\u00e1zal\u00a0graf z d\u00edlny American Enterprise Institute z roku 2022<\/a>, n\u00e1klady na nemocni\u010dn\u00ed slu\u017eby v USA vzrostly za uplynul\u00e9 \u010dtvrtstolet\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e n\u00e1klady na v\u0161echno ostatn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eby.<\/p>\n

V\u00e1lky a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 ot\u0159esy jako motory zm\u011bn<\/p>\n

Druhou s\u00edlu, kter\u00e1 opakovan\u011b m\u011bnila sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed lidsk\u00fdch d\u011bjin, p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed v\u00e1lky. B\u011bhem druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky p\u0159i\u0161lo o \u017eivot odhadem\u00a070\u201385 milion\u016f lid\u00ed<\/a>, z toho t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 30 milion\u016f v Sov\u011btsk\u00e9m svazu. Tyto ztr\u00e1ty m\u011bly pro SSSR dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e9 demografick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky, zejm\u00e9na proto, \u017ee velkou \u010d\u00e1st ob\u011bt\u00ed tvo\u0159ili mlad\u00ed mu\u017ei v produktivn\u00edm v\u011bku. Ozbrojen\u00e9 konflikty obecn\u011b ni\u010d\u00ed v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacity, naru\u0161uj\u00ed ka\u017edodenn\u00ed \u017eivot a odrazuj\u00ed od investic pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch ke stimulaci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n

Technologick\u00fd pokrok samoz\u0159ejm\u011b zn\u00e1sobil ni\u010divou s\u00edlu v\u00e1lky. Prvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka byla prvn\u00edm rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm mechanizovan\u00fdm konfliktem, v n\u011bm\u017e byly nasazeny s\u00e9riov\u011b vyr\u00e1b\u011bn\u00e9 zbran\u011b, tanky a letadla. Druh\u00e1 sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka zase urychlila masivn\u00ed rozmach vojensk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, \u010d\u00edm\u017e vyt\u00e1hla americkou ekonomiku z Velk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 krize a na n\u011bkolik desetilet\u00ed nastartovala pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd r\u016fst.<\/p>\n

Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed novou \u00e9ru technologicky \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch konflikt\u016f, kdy se v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00ed zem\u011b \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l v\u00edce spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na drony a autonomn\u00ed zbran\u011b. Na ukrajinsk\u00fdch boji\u0161t\u00edch maj\u00ed bezpilotn\u00ed letouny\u00a0na sv\u011bdom\u00ed 70\u201380 procent ob\u011bt\u00ed<\/a>. Syst\u00e9my vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00ed um\u011blou inteligenci hraj\u00ed\u00a0st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed roli<\/a>\u00a0tak\u00e9 v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m konfliktu, a\u0165 u\u017e jde o odminov\u00e1n\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu nebo sledov\u00e1n\u00ed ponorek a shroma\u017e\u010fov\u00e1n\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed.<\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00edm hnac\u00edm motorem historick\u00fdch zm\u011bn jsou hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 ot\u0159esy. V obdob\u00ed po prvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce n\u011bmeck\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed zdevastovala hyperinflace, \u010d\u00edm\u017e vznikla \u017eivn\u00e1 p\u016fda pro vzestup nacismu. Krach na burze v roce 1929 \u2013 spolu s\u00a0vlnami paniky v\u00a0bankovn\u00edm sektoru ve t\u0159ic\u00e1t\u00fdch letech a ekologickou katastrofou v podob\u011b pra\u0161n\u00fdch bou\u0159\u00ed, zvan\u00fdch \u201eDust Bowl\u201c \u2013 uvrhl do chudoby miliony Ameri\u010dan\u016f. Po cel\u00fdch Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech vznikaly v\u00a0tomto obdob\u00ed t\u00e1bory lid\u00ed bez domova (tzv. Hoovervilles).<\/p>\n

Ekonomick\u00e9 transformace sice zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed ot\u0159esy, nejistotu a beznad\u011bj, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 maj\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00ednosy. Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 revoluce odstartovala rychl\u00fd r\u016fst produktivity, zv\u00fd\u0161ila \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148, prom\u011bnila uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed spole\u010dnosti a posunula lidsk\u00fd rozvoj na zcela novou \u00farove\u0148.<\/p>\n

Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st toho byla zp\u016fsobena rychlou industrializac\u00ed a mechanizac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 od po\u010d\u00e1tku 20. stolet\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u011b prom\u011b\u0148ovaly vztah mezi kapit\u00e1lem a prac\u00ed: pracovn\u00ed s\u00edla se p\u0159esouvala ze zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed do zpracovatelsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu a n\u00e1sledn\u011b do sektoru slu\u017eeb. Ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech\u00a0klesl<\/a>\u00a0pod\u00edl zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed na zam\u011bstnanosti z v\u00edce ne\u017e 40 procent na za\u010d\u00e1tku 20. stolet\u00ed na sou\u010dasn\u00e1 ani ne dv\u011b procenta.<\/p>\n

Co p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017e\u00ed: produktivita, nebo destrukce?<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed studie\u00a0nazna\u010duj\u00ed<\/a>, \u017ee um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed produktivitu, a to zejm\u00e9na v odv\u011btv\u00edch zalo\u017een\u00fdch na znalostech. D\u016fkazy o jej\u00edm p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m p\u0159\u00ednosu k hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9mu r\u016fstu v\u0161ak zat\u00edm nejsou jasn\u00e9. Zpr\u00e1va McKinsey Global Institute z roku 2018\u00a0odhaduje<\/a>, \u017ee by AI mohla do roku 2030 zv\u00fd\u0161it glob\u00e1ln\u00ed HDP p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 13 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f (268 bilion\u016f korun). Zpr\u00e1va t\u00e9\u017ee spole\u010dnosti z roku 2023 pak\u00a0p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1<\/a>, \u017ee by generativn\u00ed um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla ro\u010dn\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159et dodate\u010dnou ekonomickou hodnotu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 2,6\u20134,4 bilionu dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

O nic men\u0161\u00ed v\u0161ak nen\u00ed ani destruktivn\u00ed potenci\u00e1l um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence. Varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed\u00a0apokalypsou na trhu pr\u00e1ce<\/a>\u00a0zp\u016fsobenou um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed se v posledn\u00edch letech oz\u00fdvaj\u00ed \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l \u010dast\u011bji. Nap\u0159\u00edklad investor Vinod Khosla\u00a0p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1<\/a>, \u017ee um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence bude na po\u010d\u00e1tku t\u0159ic\u00e1t\u00fdch let 21. stolet\u00ed schopna nahradit 80 procent st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch pracovn\u00edch pozic, \u010d\u00edm\u017e tradi\u010dn\u00ed zam\u011bstn\u00e1n\u00ed ztrat\u00ed smysl.<\/p>\n

A\u0165 u\u017e se tyto nevesel\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi potvrd\u00ed, \u010di nikoli, rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd \u00fabytek pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst by mohl naru\u0161it strukturu ekonomik i spole\u010dnost\u00ed. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by mohl v\u00fdrazn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it roli st\u00e1tu, proto\u017ee vl\u00e1dy by \u010delily rostouc\u00edmu tlaku na poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed podpory lidem bez p\u0159\u00edjmu.<\/p>\n

Supercyklus AI<\/a>\u00a0je nepochybn\u011b teprve v po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed f\u00e1zi. U\u017e te\u010f se ale zd\u00e1, \u017ee tato technologie nevyhnuteln\u011b a z\u00e1sadn\u011b prom\u011bn\u00ed zp\u016fsob, jak bojujeme s nemocemi, vedeme v\u00e1lky, podporujeme hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst. A v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku i n\u00e1\u0161 pojem o tom, jak se lidstvo odli\u0161uje od ostatn\u00edch forem inteligence.<\/p>\n

Dambisa Moyov\u00e1 je mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed ekonomka a autorka knihy\u00a0Edge of Chaos: Why Democracy Is Failing to Deliver Economic Growth \u2013 and How to Fix It<\/a>\u00a0(Basic Books, 2018).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"V pr\u016fb\u011bhu d\u011bjin byly hnac\u00ed silou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch prom\u011bn lidstva, a\u0165 u\u017e k lep\u0161\u00edmu, \u010di k hor\u0161\u00edmu, t\u0159i faktory:…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":193952,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,2209,1635,665,3408,2213,19602,845,113,645],"class_list":["post-193951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-druha-svetova-valka","tag-konflikt","tag-nemoc","tag-prvni-svetova-valka","tag-sovetsky-svaz","tag-technologicky-pokrok","tag-umela-inteligence","tag-usa","tag-valka"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117169784203818588","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193951","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=193951"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193951\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/193952"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=193951"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=193951"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=193951"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}