{"id":194029,"date":"2026-08-28T04:23:07","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T04:23:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/194029\/"},"modified":"2026-08-28T04:23:07","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T04:23:07","slug":"evropa-nema-plne-zasobniky-s-asii-se-bude-pretahovat-o-plyn-cena-se-muze-vratit-nad-100-eur-za-mwh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/194029\/","title":{"rendered":"Evropa nem\u00e1 pln\u00e9 z\u00e1sobn\u00edky, s Asi\u00ed se bude p\u0159etahovat o plyn. Cena se m\u016f\u017ee vr\u00e1tit nad 100 eur za MWh"},"content":{"rendered":"

Evropsk\u00fd trh se zemn\u00edm plynem \u010del\u00ed p\u0159ed nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed zimou rostouc\u00edmu tlaku. Nenapln\u011bn\u00e9 z\u00e1sobn\u00edky a omezen\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu v kombinaci se silnou popt\u00e1vkou z Asie zvy\u0161uje riziko v\u00fdrazn\u00e9ho r\u016fstu cen. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici dokonce varuj\u00ed, \u017ee evropsk\u00fd benchmark se m\u016f\u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje vr\u00e1tit nad hranici 100 eur<\/a> za megawatthodinu, kde byl naposledy b\u011bhem energetick\u00e9 krize, je\u017e naplno vypukla v roce 2022 pot\u00e9, co Rusko napadlo Ukrajinu.<\/p>\n

Futures kontrakt na z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed ve virtu\u00e1ln\u00edm obchodn\u00edm uzlu Title Transfer Facility (TTF) v Nizozemsku, jen\u017e je pro evropsk\u00fd trh se zemn\u00edm plynem ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed, se v uplynul\u00fdch dnech vy\u0161plhal nad cenu 68 eur<\/a> za MWh, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2023. P\u0159esto\u017ee ceny n\u00e1sledn\u011b \u010d\u00e1st zisk\u016f odevzdaly, nervozita na trhu p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Pokud se setk\u00e1 chladn\u00e1 zima s pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edmi omezen\u00edmi na stran\u011b nab\u00eddky, tak by se cena mohla zv\u00fd\u0161it do p\u00e1sma 90 a\u017e 120 eur<\/a> za MWh, uvedl pro server CNBC<\/a> Tancrede Fulop, hlavn\u00ed akciov\u00fd analytik Morningstaru.<\/p>\n

Analytici z to vid\u00ed podobn\u011b, nebo\u0165 ve sv\u00e9m ned\u011bln\u00edm koment\u00e1\u0159i napsali, \u017ee pokud se v\u00fdvoz LNG na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b „bude normalizovat do roku 2027 jen postupn\u011b,“ tak futures na zemn\u00ed plyn<\/a> budou muset p\u0159ekro\u010dit 100 eur<\/a> za megawatthodinu, aby se asijsk\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka omezila natolik, aby Evropa mohla zvl\u00e1dnout sv\u00e9 skladov\u00e1n\u00ed b\u011bhem zimy.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem Evropy jsou aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1soby plynu v Evropsk\u00e9 unii. Plnic\u00ed sez\u00f3na sice pokra\u010duje, av\u0161ak tempo dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f je pomalej\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech. Evropsk\u00e9 z\u00e1sobn\u00edky jsou podle \u00fadaj\u016f Gas Infrastructure Europe zapln\u011bny p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b ze 63 procent, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje jednu z nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edch hodnot pro toto obdob\u00ed roku za posledn\u00ed roky.<\/p>\n

Oproti p\u011btilet\u00e9mu pr\u016fm\u011bru zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 z\u00e1sob p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 18 procentn\u00edch bod\u016f, a to m\u016f\u017ee ke konci zimy p\u0159edstavovat probl\u00e9m. \u201eEvropa je moment\u00e1ln\u011b na cest\u011b za\u010d\u00edt zimu s nedostate\u010dnou rezervou pro pozdn\u00ed zimn\u00ed chlady, zejm\u00e9na proto, \u017ee mno\u017estv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 lze v den \u0161pi\u010dky vy\u010derpat ze z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f, kles\u00e1, \u010d\u00edm pr\u00e1zdn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je skladov\u00e1n\u00ed,\u201c sd\u011blil CNBC Matt Drinkwater ze spole\u010dnosti Energy Aspects, je\u017e poskytuje hloubkov\u00e1 data, cenov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy a fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed anal\u00fdzy evropsk\u00e9ho trhu se zemn\u00edm plynem.<\/p>\n

Podle n\u011bj existuje mo\u017enost, \u017ee s\u00edlic\u00ed meteorologick\u00fd jev El Nino zp\u016fsob\u00ed m\u00edrnou ranou zimu v severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii, co\u017e sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed popt\u00e1vku, z\u00e1rove\u0148 to ale \u201ezvy\u0161uje riziko, \u017ee pozdn\u00ed zima bude chladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e obvykle\u201c, dodal.<\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd Hormuz<\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dovou prom\u011bnnou te\u010f je to, zda se v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 objemy LNG z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu vr\u00e1t\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed zimou. Omezen\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravy v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu toti\u017e zas\u00e1hlo zejm\u00e9na dod\u00e1vky z Kataru a dal\u0161\u00edch producent\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu pr\u00e1v\u011b v obdob\u00ed, kdy Evropa tradi\u010dn\u011b pln\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00edky p\u0159ed zimou.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdznamn\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed exportu LNG z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu by znamenalo, \u017ee zat\u00edmco Evropa pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b st\u00e1le za\u010dne zimu s „nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fdmi z\u00e1sobami\u201c, tak region by mohl uchovat v\u00edce sv\u00fdch z\u00e1sob pro vrcholn\u00e9 chladn\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed v lednu a \u00fanoru, m\u00edn\u00ed Drinkwater s t\u00edm, \u017ee takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je ov\u0161em \u2013 vzhledem k nestabiln\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 situaci v t\u00e9to \u00fa\u017ein\u011b \u2013 nejist\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Souboj s Asi\u00ed<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm rizikem je pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed soupe\u0159en\u00ed Evropy s Asi\u00ed o dostupn\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky LNG. R\u016fst glob\u00e1ln\u00edch exportn\u00edch kapacit je v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00ed omezen\u00fd a v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 nov\u00e9 projekty, v\u010detn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby a zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed v Kataru, nebudou podle odhad\u016f pln\u011b dostupn\u00e9 d\u0159\u00edve ne\u017e ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku.<\/p>\n

P\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch si Evropa udr\u017euje m\u00edrnou v\u00fdhodu oproti Asii v p\u0159il\u00e1k\u00e1n\u00ed flexibiln\u00edch LNG n\u00e1klad\u016f z USA, a to po zohledn\u011bn\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f na p\u0159epravu t\u011bchto dod\u00e1vek do Asie, upozornil Fulop z Morningstaru.<\/p>\n

Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b Evropa bude pot\u0159ebovat mnohem v\u00edce americk\u00e9ho LNG, pokud ostatn\u00ed dod\u00e1vky z\u016fstanou omezen\u00e9. \u201eOdhadujeme, \u017ee Evropa by pot\u0159ebovala p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 64 miliard kubick\u00fdch metr\u016f americk\u00e9ho LNG, co\u017e odpov\u00edd\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 77 procent\u016fm celkov\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho exportu. P\u0159il\u00e1k\u00e1n\u00ed tak neobvykle vysok\u00e9ho pod\u00edlu by vy\u017eadovalo, aby Evropa nab\u00eddla v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed zisk ne\u017e Asie,\u201c \u0159ekl z\u00e1v\u011brem Fulop.<\/p>\n

D\u016fsledkem takov\u00e9ho jedn\u00e1n\u00ed by pochopiteln\u011b byly vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady pro dom\u00e1cnosti i firmy. V krajn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i analytici p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed i mo\u017enost omezen\u00ed spot\u0159eby plynu v n\u011bkter\u00fdch pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00edch.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Evropsk\u00fd trh se zemn\u00edm plynem \u010del\u00ed p\u0159ed nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed zimou rostouc\u00edmu tlaku. Nenapln\u011bn\u00e9 z\u00e1sobn\u00edky a omezen\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":194030,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[10030,44829,31951,2184,5220,109,108,106,1758,44832,5266,29448,44828,492,44830,44831,14758],"class_list":["post-194029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-evropa","tag-10030","tag-asii","tag-bude","tag-cena","tag-eur","tag-europa","tag-europe","tag-evropa","tag-muze","tag-mwh","tag-nad","tag-nema","tag-plne","tag-plyn","tag-pretahovat","tag-vratit","tag-zasobniky"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117171231458283582","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194029","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=194029"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194029\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/194030"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=194029"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=194029"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=194029"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}