{"id":199682,"date":"2026-09-02T10:26:22","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T10:26:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/199682\/"},"modified":"2026-09-02T10:26:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T10:26:22","slug":"rogoff-volici-nedovoli-zmenu-v-zadluzovani-a-tim-privodi-krizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/199682\/","title":{"rendered":"Rogoff: Voli\u010di nedovol\u00ed zm\u011bnu v zadlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed a t\u00edm p\u0159ivod\u00ed krizi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kenneth Rogoff z Harvard University p\u016fsobil mimo jin\u00e9 jako hlavn\u00ed ekonom Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho fondu. Ve sv\u00e9m v\u00fdzkumu se dlouhodob\u011b v\u011bnuje i v\u00fdvoji vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluh\u016f a jejich dopadu na ekonomiku. Na CNBC \u0159ekl, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e9 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 tempo r\u016fstu americk\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed, ale prom\u00edt\u00e1 se do nich v\u00edce faktor\u016f. V\u010detn\u011b v\u00e1lky v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a dal\u0161\u00edch vliv\u016f za hranicemi USA.
\u201ePravdou ale je, \u017ee je velmi t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 zjistit, co za v\u00fdvojem re\u00e1ln\u00fdch sazeb<\/a> stoj\u00ed,\u201c dodal ekonom s t\u00edm, \u017ee dobr\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem je vliv st\u00e1rnut\u00ed populace. Navzdory \u010dast\u00fdm tvrzen\u00edm o tom, kam by m\u011blo posouvat sazby<\/a>, historick\u00e1 data neukazuj\u00ed na n\u011bjak\u00fd jednozna\u010dn\u00fd mechanismus. A je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 predikovat dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj, kdy\u017e nejsme schopni ani jednozna\u010dn\u011b interpretovat ten historick\u00fd. K sou\u010dasn\u00e9mu zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdnos\u016f pak Rogoff dodal, \u017ee pokud zde bude rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst<\/a>, v\u00fdnosy mohou j\u00edt je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fd\u0161, ne\u017e kam se dostaly nyn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

K sou\u010dasn\u00fdm snah\u00e1m americk\u00e9ho ministerstva financ\u00ed o zm\u011bnu \u010dasov\u00e9 struktury jeho dluhopis\u016f Rogoff \u0159ekl, \u017ee to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt vn\u00edm\u00e1no jako krok do sf\u00e9ry p\u016fsoben\u00ed americk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky. Tato snaha m\u00e1 za c\u00edl ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch a dlouhodob\u00fdch sazeb<\/a> a ekonom k uveden\u00e9mu dodal, \u017ee t\u00e9ma tu existuje ji\u017e od roku 2008, kdy Fed rozjel program kvantitativn\u00edho uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed. Tedy n\u00e1kupy dluhopis\u016f, kter\u00e9 tak\u00e9 m\u011bly za c\u00edl ovlivnit v\u00fd\u0161i v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f po cel\u00e9 d\u00e9lce v\u00fdnosov\u00e9 k\u0159ivky. Tehdy \u0161lo podle ekonoma tvrdit, \u017ee se Fed vydal do oblasti, kter\u00e1 spad\u00e1 pod ministerstvo financ\u00ed. Pr\u00e1v\u011b na tomto ministerstvu je toti\u017e rozhodnut\u00ed, jak m\u00e1 vypadat celkov\u00fd profil splatnosti vl\u00e1dn\u00edch obligac\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Podle Rogoffa to tedy nen\u00ed tak, \u017ee by se ministerstvo nyn\u00ed vyd\u00e1valo do oblasti vyhrazen\u00e9 Fedu, ten se u\u017e kdysi pustil tam, kde by m\u011blo rozhodovat ministerstvo. K tomu dodal, \u017ee se \u010dasto zapom\u00edn\u00e1, \u017ee \u201eministerstvo Fed vlastn\u00ed\u201c. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky Kevin Warsh pak podle Rogoffa nem\u00e1 probl\u00e9m s t\u00edm, \u017ee ministerstvo ovliv\u0148uje v\u00fdnosy na del\u0161\u00edm konci k\u0159ivky, tedy u dluhopis\u016f s del\u0161\u00ed splatnost\u00ed, a Fed se zam\u011b\u0159uje na sazby<\/a> kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9. Podle Rogoffa na to ukazuje jeden z d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch projev\u016f Warshe.<\/p>\n

Ekonom tak\u00e9 podle sv\u00fdch slov souhlas\u00ed s Warshov\u00fdm n\u00e1zorem, podle kter\u00e9ho by m\u011bla b\u00fdt rozvaha Fedu v\u00fdrazn\u011b men\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e nyn\u00ed. Nen\u00ed to ale zm\u011bna, kter\u00e9 by mohlo b\u00fdt dosa\u017eeno b\u011bhem kr\u00e1tk\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed a souvis\u00ed i se zp\u016fsobem regulace. K v\u00fdvoji vl\u00e1dn\u00edho zadlu\u017een\u00ed v USA a vlivu na dolar<\/a> pak \u0159ekl, \u017ee v del\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00ed bude m\u00edt na celosv\u011btov\u00e9m poli rostouc\u00ed v\u00fdznam euro<\/a> a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 renminbi. V krat\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00ed je pak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, aby do\u0161lo ke zm\u011bn\u011b na stran\u011b vysok\u00fdch rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch deficit\u016f americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy. Tomu ale podle experta br\u00e1n\u00ed voli\u010di. Jak?<\/p>\n

Rogoff se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee ameri\u010dt\u00ed voli\u010di v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b neuv\u011b\u0159\u00ed politik\u016fm, pokud by hovo\u0159ili o nutnosti sni\u017eovat deficity a konsolidovat dluhy \u201eNeuv\u011b\u0159\u00ed v\u00e1m, nebudete zvoleni. Tak\u017ee mysl\u00edm, \u017ee p\u0159ijde n\u011bjak\u00e1 forma dluhov\u00e9 krize, finan\u010dn\u00ed represe, inflace<\/a>, mo\u017en\u00e1 n\u011bco dramati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edho. A nejsme v tom sami. K dluhov\u00fdm kriz\u00edm p\u0159itom nutn\u011b doch\u00e1zet nemus\u00ed, ukazovala na to t\u0159eba Argentina, kdy\u017e jsem p\u016fsobil v MMF,\u201c dodal ekonom.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Kenneth Rogoff z Harvard University p\u016fsobil mimo jin\u00e9 jako hlavn\u00ed ekonom Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho fondu. Ve sv\u00e9m v\u00fdzkumu se…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":199683,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,29171,45792,45794,45791,41332,1338,44475,45793],"class_list":["post-199682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-krizi","tag-nedovoli","tag-privodi","tag-rogoff","tag-tim","tag-volici","tag-zadluzovani","tag-zmenu"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117200970372615745","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=199682"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199682\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/199683"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=199682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=199682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=199682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}