Ukrajina za\u010dala o\u00a0p\u0159\u00edprav\u00e1ch nov\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 mobilizace ve\u0159ejn\u011b mluvit u\u017e b\u011bhem prvn\u00ed poloviny srpna. Prezident Volodymyr Zelenskyj 11.\u00a0srpna tvrdil, \u017ee Moskva chyst\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed kolo povol\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed na podzim a\u00a0Vladimir Putin m\u00e1 s\u00a0jeho vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm \u010dekat a\u017e na z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9 volby do St\u00e1tn\u00ed dumy. Podle Zelensk\u00e9ho by potom b\u011bhem kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 doby mohlo do arm\u00e1dy zam\u00ed\u0159it n\u011bkolik set tis\u00edc dal\u0161\u00edch Rus\u016f.<\/p>\n
Koncem m\u011bs\u00edce Kyjev sv\u00e1 tvrzen\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b zp\u0159esnil, Ukrajinsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 rozv\u011bdka HUR a\u00a0zahrani\u010dn\u00ed rozv\u011bdka SZR 27.\u00a0srpna ozn\u00e1mily, \u017ee podle jejich informac\u00ed rusk\u00fd gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161t\u00e1b u\u017e p\u0159ipravil sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 mobilizace dal\u0161\u00edch 300\u00a0tis\u00edc lid\u00ed do konce roku 2026\u00a0a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch 300\u00a0tis\u00edc v\u00a0roce 2027.\u00a0Celkem by tak mohlo j\u00edt a\u017e o\u00a0600\u00a0tis\u00edc nov\u011b povolan\u00fdch.<\/p>\n
Ukrajinsk\u00e1 verze je velmi konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed, st\u00e1le v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 tvrzen\u00edm jedn\u00e9 z\u00a0v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00edch stran a\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e9 zdroje jsou zdr\u017eenliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Podle informac\u00ed Wall Street Journal Rusko skute\u010dn\u011b prov\u011b\u0159uje p\u0159ipravenost mobiliza\u010dn\u00edho apar\u00e1tu a\u00a0v regionech prob\u00edhaj\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed a\u00a0kontroly, kone\u010dn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed o\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed vln\u011b povol\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ak podle z\u00e1padn\u00edch informac\u00ed zat\u00edm nepadlo.<\/p>\n
Moskva v\u0161echno kategoricky odm\u00edt\u00e1, Kreml ozna\u010duje zpr\u00e1vy o\u00a0nov\u00e9 mobilizaci za l\u017ei a\u00a0informa\u010dn\u00ed operaci Kyjeva a\u00a0tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed masov\u00e9 povol\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nepot\u0159ebuje. Sou\u010dasn\u011b ale po Rusku prob\u00edhaj\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b takov\u00e9 prov\u011brky, kter\u00e9 by st\u00e1tu umo\u017enily p\u0159\u00edpadnou dal\u0161\u00ed mobilizaci zvl\u00e1dnout rychleji ne\u017e chaotickou vlnu z\u00a0roku 2022.<\/p>\n
Takov\u00fd test prob\u011bhl nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0Kaliningradsk\u00e9 oblasti, kde se podle z\u00e1padn\u00edch zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed prov\u011b\u0159ovala schopnost p\u0159ijmout v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed povolan\u00fdch mu\u017e\u016f, evidovat je, ubytovat, z\u00e1sobovat a\u00a0vydat jim v\u00fdstroj a\u00a0zbran\u011b. Podobn\u00e9 kontroly maj\u00ed prob\u00edhat tak\u00e9 v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch regionech.<\/p>\n
Samotn\u00e9 cvi\u010den\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b nedokazuje, \u017ee Putin mobilizaci skute\u010dn\u011b vyhl\u00e1s\u00ed. Ukazuje v\u0161ak, \u017ee rusk\u00fd st\u00e1t se na takovou mo\u017enost p\u0159ipravuje. A\u00a0to sta\u010d\u00ed k\u00a0tomu, aby \u010d\u00e1st Rus\u016f za\u010dala reagovat je\u0161t\u011b d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e z\u00a0Kremlu zazn\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed nov\u00fd mobiliza\u010dn\u00ed rozkaz.<\/p>\n
Ozv\u011bna podzimu 2022<\/p>\n
Po \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 mobilizaci z\u00a0podzimu 2022\u00a0se Kreml dlouho sna\u017eil z\u00edsk\u00e1vat nov\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky jinak, m\u00edsto nepopul\u00e1rn\u00edho plo\u0161n\u00e9ho povol\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159i\u0161ly vysok\u00e9 n\u00e1borov\u00e9 bonusy, nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 platy, region\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edplatky a\u00a0st\u00e1le \u0161t\u011bd\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed odm\u011bny za podpis smlouvy s\u00a0ministerstvem obrany. Pro mu\u017ee z\u00a0chud\u0161\u00edch oblast\u00ed Ruska za\u010dala slu\u017eba v\u00a0arm\u00e1d\u011b nab\u00edzet \u010d\u00e1stky, na kter\u00e9 by v\u00a0b\u011b\u017en\u00e9m zam\u011bstn\u00e1n\u00ed vyd\u011bl\u00e1vali n\u011bkolik let.<\/p>\n
Syst\u00e9m n\u011bjakou dobu fungoval, podle rusk\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f uzav\u0159elo od mobilizace z\u00a0roku 2022\u00a0smlouvu s\u00a0arm\u00e1dou p\u0159es 1,3\u00a0milionu lid\u00ed. N\u00e1bor postupn\u011b p\u0159evzaly p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm regiony, kter\u00e9 mezi sebou za\u010daly sout\u011b\u017eit v\u00fd\u0161\u00ed vstupn\u00edch bonus\u016f a\u00a0dost\u00e1valy vlastn\u00ed kv\u00f3ty. Vedle toho Moskva sahala po v\u011bzn\u00edch, zadlu\u017een\u00fdch lidech, cizinc\u00edch nebo mu\u017e\u00edch v\u00a0t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed situaci. V\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch regionech se objevily dokonce odm\u011bny pro \u010dlov\u011bka, kter\u00fd p\u0159ivede nov\u00e9ho dobrovoln\u00edka.<\/p>\n
Jen\u017ee tento zdroj se postupn\u011b vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st mu\u017e\u016f ochotn\u00fdch dobrovoln\u011b podepsat smlouvu za pen\u00edze u\u017e arm\u00e1da z\u00edskala a\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00fd dal\u0161\u00ed rekrut je dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u011b pokra\u010duj\u00ed vysok\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty na front\u011b, podle z\u00e1padn\u00edch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f Rusko v\u00a0posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch ztr\u00e1c\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o\u00a0\u0161est tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b v\u00edce, ne\u017e dok\u00e1\u017ee nov\u011b nabrat. P\u0159esto\u017ee do arm\u00e1dy st\u00e1le p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed kolem tis\u00edce lid\u00ed denn\u011b, odvodov\u00e9 a\u00a0n\u00e1borov\u00e9 struktury u\u017e podle t\u011bchto odhad\u016f nedok\u00e1\u017eou pln\u011b nahrazovat mu\u017ee vy\u0159azen\u00e9 z\u00a0boj\u016f.<\/p>\n
Tak\u00e9 proto jak\u00e1koli zm\u00ednka o\u00a0nov\u00e9 mobilizaci v\u00a0Rusku okam\u017eit\u011b p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 podzim 2022.\u00a0Putin tehdy 21.\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v\u00a0televizn\u00edm projevu ozn\u00e1mil \u201e\u010d\u00e1ste\u010dnou mobilizaci\u201c p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 300\u00a0tis\u00edc rezervist\u016f. B\u011bhem n\u011bkolika hodin se vyprodaly letenky do zem\u00ed, kam Rusov\u00e9 mohli cestovat bez v\u00edza, a\u00a0na pozemn\u00edch hranic\u00edch s\u00a0Gruzi\u00ed, Kazachst\u00e1nem, Finskem nebo Mongolskem za\u010daly vznikat dlouh\u00e9 kolony.<\/p>\n
Je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dopad m\u011blo to, co n\u00e1sledovalo uvnit\u0159 zem\u011b, soci\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b zaplavily z\u00e1b\u011bry mu\u017e\u016f odv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdch z\u00a0domov\u016f a\u00a0pracovi\u0161\u0165, p\u0159epln\u011bn\u00fdch odvodov\u00fdch st\u0159edisek a\u00a0rodin lou\u010d\u00edc\u00edch se s\u00a0nov\u011b povolan\u00fdmi. V\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech dost\u00e1vali povol\u00e1vac\u00ed rozkazy lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed podle p\u016fvodn\u00edch slib\u016f ministerstva obrany v\u016fbec nem\u011bli b\u00fdt mezi mobilizovan\u00fdmi\u00a0\u2013 mu\u017ei bez odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti, lid\u00e9 ve vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm v\u011bku nebo se zdravotn\u00edmi probl\u00e9my. Chaos byl tak viditeln\u00fd, \u017ee proti \u201eexces\u016fm\u201c za\u010dali ve\u0159ejn\u011b vystupovat i\u00a0n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed vysoc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 re\u017eimu a\u00a0st\u00e1tn\u00ed m\u00e9dia.<\/p>\n
Mobilizace se nav\u00edc propojila s\u00a0protesty. U\u017e prvn\u00ed ve\u010der po Putinov\u011b projevu zadr\u017eela policie v\u00edce ne\u017e 1\u00a0300\u00a0lid\u00ed a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed stovky n\u00e1sledovaly b\u011bhem n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch dn\u016f. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed zadr\u017een\u00ed mu\u017ei dostali povol\u00e1vac\u00ed rozkaz p\u0159\u00edmo na policejn\u00ed stanici. Kdy\u017e se Peskova novin\u00e1\u0159i ptali, zda se to skute\u010dn\u011b d\u011bje, nepop\u0159el to a\u00a0pouze uvedl, \u017ee takov\u00fd postup nen\u00ed v\u00a0rozporu se z\u00e1konem.<\/p>\n
Sou\u010dasn\u011b se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da nebyla na tak rychl\u00fd p\u0159\u00edliv stovek tis\u00edc lid\u00ed p\u0159ipravena. Z\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed zem\u011b p\u0159ich\u00e1zely zpr\u00e1vy o\u00a0nedostatku uniforem, nepr\u016fst\u0159eln\u00fdch vest, spac\u00e1k\u016f a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed v\u00fdstroje. Mobilizovan\u00ed si n\u011bkdy museli \u010d\u00e1st vybaven\u00ed nakupovat sami nebo jim ho sh\u00e1n\u011bly rodiny a\u00a0m\u00edstn\u00ed sb\u00edrky. Ve v\u00fdcvikov\u00fdch st\u0159edisc\u00edch chyb\u011bly kapacity, objevovaly se probl\u00e9my s\u00a0ubytov\u00e1n\u00edm i\u00a0z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00edm a\u00a0n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed povolan\u00ed byli po velmi kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b odes\u00edl\u00e1ni k\u00a0frontov\u00fdm jednotk\u00e1m.<\/p>\n
Tak\u00e9 tento chaos pom\u00e1h\u00e1 vysv\u011btlit dne\u0161n\u00ed nervozitu, v\u011bt\u0161ina Rus\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed si podzim 2022\u00a0pamatuj\u00ed, u\u017e v\u00ed, \u017ee mezi ofici\u00e1ln\u00edm ozn\u00e1men\u00edm a\u00a0skute\u010dn\u00fdm povol\u00e1n\u00edm nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt mnoho \u010dasu. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 maj\u00ed zku\u0161enost s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee p\u016fvodn\u00ed krit\u00e9ria se b\u011bhem mobilizace dodr\u017eovala jen velmi voln\u011b a\u00a0\u017ee st\u00e1t dok\u00e1zal b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u016f zm\u011bnit \u017eivot statis\u00edc\u016fm rodin.<\/p>\n
Kreml se proto od t\u00e9 doby sna\u017e\u00ed druh\u00e9mu podobn\u00e9mu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i vyhnout. Dobrovoln\u00fd n\u00e1bor za vysok\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1stky byl politicky mnohem pohodln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, na frontu odch\u00e1zel \u010dlov\u011bk, kter\u00fd alespo\u0148 form\u00e1ln\u011b souhlasil a\u00a0dostal za to zaplaceno. Nov\u00e1 masov\u00e1 mobilizace by tuto hranici znovu p\u0159ekro\u010dila.<\/p>\n
V tom le\u017e\u00ed dne\u0161n\u00ed probl\u00e9m Moskvy, pen\u00edze st\u00e1le dok\u00e1\u017eou p\u0159iv\u00e9st do arm\u00e1dy desetitis\u00edce lid\u00ed, ale podle z\u00e1padn\u00edch odhad\u016f u\u017e nesta\u010d\u00ed dr\u017eet krok se ztr\u00e1tami. Pokud se tento rozd\u00edl bude d\u00e1l zv\u011bt\u0161ovat, Putin bude m\u00edt st\u00e1le m\u00e9n\u011b mo\u017enost\u00ed, jak z\u00edskat dal\u0161\u00ed statis\u00edce mu\u017e\u016f bez n\u00e1vratu k\u00a0metod\u011b, kter\u00e1 p\u0159ed \u010dty\u0159mi lety vyvolala jeden z\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch ot\u0159es\u016f v\u00a0rusk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti od za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n
Kolony na hrani\u010dn\u00edch p\u0159echodech<\/p>\n
Prvn\u00ed viditeln\u00fd dopad obav z\u00a0nov\u00e9 mobilizace se objevil na hranic\u00edch. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pozornost p\u0159it\u00e1hl Verchnij Lars, jedin\u00fd silni\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159echod mezi Ruskem a\u00a0Gruzi\u00ed a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 cesta, kter\u00e1 se u\u017e v\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2022\u00a0stala jedn\u00edm ze symbol\u016f \u00fat\u011bku p\u0159ed Putinov\u00fdm povol\u00e1vac\u00edm rozkazem.<\/p>\n
Rusk\u00e1 Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed celn\u00ed slu\u017eba b\u011bhem srpna za\u010dala hl\u00e1sit v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed provoz ne\u017e v\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech. P\u0159es p\u0159echod pro\u0161lo 15.\u00a0a\u00a016.\u00a0srpna ka\u017ed\u00fd den v\u00edce ne\u017e 19\u00a0tis\u00edc lid\u00ed a\u00a0n\u00e1sledoval den s\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e 20\u00a0tis\u00edci cestuj\u00edc\u00edmi. Za t\u00fdden pak spr\u00e1va Severn\u00ed Osetie uv\u00e1d\u011bla p\u0159es 113\u00a0tis\u00edc pr\u016fchod\u016f a\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e 33\u00a0tis\u00edc automobil\u016f. Rusk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady musely pos\u00edlit sm\u011bny a\u00a0nasadit dal\u0161\u00ed person\u00e1l, aby zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fd provoz zvl\u00e1dly.<\/p>\n
\u010c\u00edsla ov\u0161em vy\u017eaduj\u00ed opatrnost. Neznamenaj\u00ed, \u017ee 113\u00a0tis\u00edc rusk\u00fdch mu\u017e\u016f b\u011bhem t\u00fddne uprchlo p\u0159ed mobilizac\u00ed. Rusk\u00e1 statistika zahrnuje pohyb v\u00a0obou sm\u011brech a\u00a0nerozli\u0161uje podle zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f ani n\u00e1rodnost v\u0161ech cestuj\u00edc\u00edch. Gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9 ministerstvo vnitra nap\u0159\u00edklad za jedno sledovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed zaznamenalo 7\u00a0880\u00a0lid\u00ed p\u0159ij\u00ed\u017ed\u011bj\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159es Lars do Gruzie a\u00a08\u00a0406\u00a0cestuj\u00edc\u00edch opa\u010dn\u00fdm sm\u011brem.<\/p>\n
Samotn\u00e1 situace na hranici zat\u00edm nep\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 nejdramati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dny podzimu 2022, kdy lid\u00e9 \u010dekali v\u00a0kolon\u00e1ch cel\u00e9 dny. Report\u00e9\u0159i R\u00e1dia Svobodn\u00e1 Evropa nav\u0161t\u00edvili Lars 20.\u00a0srpna a\u00a0masov\u00fd exodus v\u00a0tu chv\u00edli nepozorovali. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fd provoz je v\u0161ak re\u00e1ln\u00fd a\u00a0rusk\u00e1 celn\u00ed spr\u00e1va sama p\u0159ipustila, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159evy\u0161uj\u00ed hodnoty obvykl\u00e9 pro stejn\u00e9 obdob\u00ed p\u0159edchoz\u00edch let.<\/p>\n
P\u0159esn\u00fd d\u016fvod ka\u017ed\u00e9 cesty samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nikdo nezn\u00e1, srpen pat\u0159\u00ed k\u00a0turistick\u00e9 sezon\u011b, Verchnij Lars pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed lid\u00e9 cestuj\u00edc\u00ed ob\u011bma sm\u011bry a\u00a0provoz ovliv\u0148uje tak\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed nebo do\u010dasn\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed horsk\u00e9 silnice. Sou\u010dasn\u011b ale p\u0159ib\u00fdvaj\u00ed jin\u00e9 \u00fadaje, kter\u00e9 nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1st Rus\u016f skute\u010dn\u011b za\u010dala p\u0159ipravovat odchod kv\u016fli obav\u00e1m z\u00a0mobilizace.<\/p>\n
Organizace Kov\u010deg, kter\u00e1 pom\u00e1h\u00e1 Rus\u016fm s\u00a0emigrac\u00ed, zaznamenala b\u011bhem prvn\u00edch dvaceti srpnov\u00fdch dn\u016f v\u00edce ne\u017e \u0161estin\u00e1sobn\u00fd po\u010det dotaz\u016f na odchod ze zem\u011b proti p\u0159edchoz\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edc\u016fm. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1jem byl o\u00a0Arm\u00e9nii a\u00a0Gruzii, n\u00e1sledovaly Srbsko, Argentina a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b Latinsk\u00e9 Ameriky. Naopak z\u00e1jem o\u00a0Kazachst\u00e1n klesal kv\u016fli zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00fdm pravidl\u016fm pobytu a\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u016fm zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed lid\u00ed hledan\u00fdch rusk\u00fdmi \u00fa\u0159ady.<\/p>\n
V\u00fdrazn\u00fd pohyb je patrn\u00fd pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00a0Arm\u00e9nii, v\u00a0prvn\u00edm pololet\u00ed roku 2026\u00a0do n\u00ed p\u0159ijelo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 417\u00a0tis\u00edc rusk\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f, zat\u00edmco za cel\u00fd rok 2025\u00a0jich bylo kolem 340\u00a0tis\u00edc. Samotn\u00e9 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00e1 omezenou vypov\u00eddac\u00ed hodnotu, proto\u017ee velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st t\u011bchto lid\u00ed p\u0159ij\u00ed\u017ed\u00ed jako turist\u00e9 a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u011b zemi zase opou\u0161t\u00ed. Mezi lednem a\u00a0kv\u011btnem v\u0161ak po\u010det p\u0159\u00edjezd\u016f rusk\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f p\u0159ev\u00fd\u0161il odjezdy p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o\u00a0sedm tis\u00edc lid\u00ed. Na rostouc\u00ed popt\u00e1vku za\u010dal reagovat tak\u00e9 trh s\u00a0bydlen\u00edm v\u00a0Jerevanu, kde realitn\u00ed makl\u00e9\u0159i b\u011bhem l\u00e9ta hl\u00e1sili prudk\u00fd r\u016fst z\u00e1jmu o\u00a0pron\u00e1jmy.<\/p>\n
Arm\u00e9nie nav\u00edc dala p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdm uprchl\u00edk\u016fm p\u0159ed novou mobilizac\u00ed zat\u00edm nejjasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed politick\u00fd sign\u00e1l. Tajemn\u00edk arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed rady Alen Simonjan 25.\u00a0srpna prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Jerevan nebude rusk\u00fdm ob\u010dan\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed by cht\u011bli v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nov\u00e9 mobilizace odjet do Arm\u00e9nie, br\u00e1nit ve vstupu. \u201eNikdo se na hranici nebude nikoho pt\u00e1t, pro\u010d sem p\u0159ijel,\u201c uvedl Simonjan. Rusov\u00e9 mohou do Arm\u00e9nie cestovat i\u00a0bez zahrani\u010dn\u00edho pasu a\u00a0arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady podle n\u011bj p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edchoz\u00edm nebudou vytv\u00e1\u0159et p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky. Pokud bude t\u0159eba, zem\u011b jim podle jeho slov tak\u00e9 pom\u016f\u017ee.<\/p>\n
Podobn\u011b jednozna\u010dn\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed zat\u00edm z\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch hlavn\u00edch c\u00edlov\u00fdch zem\u00ed nep\u0159i\u0161lo. Gruzie nicm\u00e9n\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pro Rusy snadno dostupn\u00e1 a\u00a0podle Kov\u010degu pat\u0159\u00ed spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed k\u00a0v\u016fbec nej\u017e\u00e1dan\u011bj\u0161\u00edm mo\u017enostem. Srbsko a\u00a0Argentina p\u0159itahuj\u00ed z\u00e1jem tak\u00e9, zat\u00edm v\u0161ak jde p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o\u00a0volbu samotn\u00fdch Rus\u016f, nikoli o\u00a0nov\u011b vyhl\u00e1\u0161enou politiku tamn\u00edch vl\u00e1d v\u016f\u010di p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdm odp\u00edra\u010d\u016fm mobilizace.<\/p>\n
Zn\u00e1mky nervozity se objevuj\u00ed rovn\u011b\u017e ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii. R\u00e1dio Svobodn\u00e1 Evropa zaznamenalo p\u0159\u00edpady lid\u00ed s\u00a0dvoj\u00edm rusk\u00fdm a\u00a0kyrgyzsk\u00fdm ob\u010danstv\u00edm, kte\u0159\u00ed se po zpr\u00e1v\u00e1ch o\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e9 mobilizaci rozhodli vr\u00e1tit z\u00a0Ruska do Kyrgyzst\u00e1nu. Z\u00e1stupce tamn\u00ed diaspory uvedl, \u017ee podobn\u00fdch odchod\u016f p\u0159ib\u00fdv\u00e1. Ani zde zat\u00edm nejde o\u00a0masov\u00fd exodus srovnateln\u00fd s\u00a0rokem 2022, sp\u00ed\u0161e o\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed d\u00edl mozaiky ukazuj\u00edc\u00ed, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1st lid\u00ed nechce \u010dekat na p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed Kremlu.<\/p>\n
Rozd\u00edl proti podzimu 2022\u00a0je p\u0159itom z\u00e1sadn\u00ed. Tehdy se kolony vytvo\u0159ily pot\u00e9, co Putin mobilizaci skute\u010dn\u011b ozn\u00e1mil. Dnes Moskva opakuje, \u017ee nic podobn\u00e9ho nechyst\u00e1, a\u00a0p\u0159esto rostou dotazy na emigraci, zvy\u0161uje se provoz na n\u011bkter\u00fdch tras\u00e1ch a\u00a0Arm\u00e9nie u\u017e ve\u0159ejn\u011b p\u0159ipravuje p\u016fdu pro p\u0159\u00edpadnou dal\u0161\u00ed vlnu p\u0159\u00edchoz\u00edch.<\/p>\n
Zat\u00edm tedy nelze spo\u010d\u00edtat, kolik lid\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b opou\u0161t\u00ed Rusko p\u0159\u00edmo ze strachu p\u0159ed mobilizac\u00ed. Samotn\u00fd trend je ale st\u00e1le obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eet. \u010c\u00e1st Rus\u016f si o\u010dividn\u011b rad\u011bji p\u0159ipravuje cestu ven je\u0161t\u011b ve chv\u00edli, kdy Kreml tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd d\u016fvod k\u00a0\u00fat\u011bku neexistuje.<\/p>\n
M\u016f\u017ee si Rusko dovolit mobilizovat?<\/p>\n
Rusko na pap\u00ed\u0159e dal\u0161\u00ed mobilizaci prov\u00e9st m\u016f\u017ee, m\u00e1 miliony mu\u017e\u016f v\u00a0evidenci, proti roku 2022\u00a0podstatn\u011b propracovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed elektronick\u00fd registr a\u00a0st\u00e1t si b\u011bhem \u010dty\u0159 let p\u0159ipravil n\u00e1stroje, kter\u00e9 mohou dal\u0161\u00ed povol\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b urychlit. Mnohem slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou je, jakou cenu by za dal\u0161\u00ed mobilizaci zaplatilo a\u00a0kolik mu\u017e\u016f by se mu poda\u0159ilo dostat a\u017e na boji\u0161t\u011b.<\/p>\n
Prvn\u00ed pokus uk\u00e1zal probl\u00e9m velmi n\u00e1zorn\u011b. Kdy\u017e Putin v\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2022\u00a0ofici\u00e1ln\u011b ozn\u00e1mil mobilizaci 300\u00a0tis\u00edc rezervist\u016f, do pohybu se daly statis\u00edce dal\u0161\u00edch lid\u00ed sm\u011brem za rusk\u00e9 hranice. P\u0159esn\u00fd po\u010det nikdy zji\u0161t\u011bn nebyl, Forbes tehdy s\u00a0odkazem na zdroj z\u00a0prezidentsk\u00e9 administrativy uv\u00e1d\u011bl 600\u00a0a\u017e 700\u00a0tis\u00edc lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed b\u011bhem prvn\u00edch dvou t\u00fddn\u016f po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed mobilizace opustili Rusko. Jin\u00fd zdroj obezn\u00e1men\u00fd s\u00a0odhady Kremlu mluvil dokonce o\u00a0t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 milionu odchoz\u00edch. Rusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed tato \u010d\u00edsla zpochyb\u0148ovalo a\u00a0\u010d\u00e1st odchoz\u00edch se pozd\u011bji vr\u00e1tila, otev\u0159en\u00e1 data sousedn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f v\u0161ak potvrzovala odchod nejm\u00e9n\u011b n\u011bkolika set tis\u00edc lid\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Pro Rusko byl d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd tak\u00e9 profil lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed odch\u00e1zeli. Emigrovali p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm mlad\u0161\u00ed obyvatel\u00e9 velk\u00fdch m\u011bst, mezi nimi nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed vysoko\u0161kol\u00e1k\u016f a\u00a0lid\u00ed schopn\u00fdch pracovat ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed, po mobilizaci nav\u00edc mezi odch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edmi v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159ibylo mu\u017e\u016f v\u00a0brann\u00e9m v\u011bku. Ztr\u00e1ty byly citeln\u00e9 nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0technologick\u00e9m sektoru, rusk\u00fd ministr pro digit\u00e1ln\u00ed rozvoj Maksut \u0160adajev na konci roku 2022\u00a0p\u0159ipustil, \u017ee se v\u00a0zahrani\u010d\u00ed nach\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 100\u00a0tis\u00edc rusk\u00fdch IT specialist\u016f, tedy kolem desetiny pracovn\u00edk\u016f tohoto odv\u011btv\u00ed. Ne v\u0161ichni ode\u0161li p\u0159\u00edmo kv\u016fli mobilizaci, prvn\u00ed velk\u00e1 vlna za\u010dala u\u017e po invazi na Ukrajinu v\u00a0\u00fanoru, mobilizace v\u0161ak odliv v\u00fdrazn\u011b urychlila.<\/p>\n
To je pro p\u0159\u00edpadnou mobilizaci v\u00a0roce 2026\u00a0d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9. Rusko u\u017e \u010dty\u0159i a\u00a0p\u016fl roku v\u00e1l\u010d\u00ed, statis\u00edce rodin maj\u00ed osobn\u00ed zku\u0161enost s\u00a0mrtv\u00fdmi a\u00a0zran\u011bn\u00fdmi a\u00a0p\u0159edstava slu\u017eby na Ukrajin\u011b dnes znamen\u00e1 n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e na za\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu. Podle z\u00e1padn\u00edch odhad\u016f rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da v\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti ztr\u00e1c\u00ed des\u00edtky tis\u00edc mu\u017e\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b. Finsk\u00fd prezident Alexander Stubb s\u00a0odkazem na dostupn\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed informace hovo\u0159il koncem srpna a\u017e o\u00a035\u00a0tis\u00edc\u00edch vy\u0159azen\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f za m\u011bs\u00edc proti p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 27\u00a0tis\u00edc\u016fm nov\u011b z\u00edskan\u00fdch.<\/p>\n
Nov\u00e1 vlna by p\u0159itom mohla b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ta prvn\u00ed. Pokud by se naplnilo ukrajinsk\u00e9 tvrzen\u00ed o\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch 300\u00a0tis\u00edc\u00edch mu\u017e\u016f je\u0161t\u011b letos, rusk\u00e9 rodiny by z\u00e1rove\u0148 vid\u011bly, \u017ee p\u0159edchoz\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i roky spot\u0159ebovaly obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed lid\u00ed a\u00a0dobrovoln\u00edci u\u017e nesta\u010d\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty dopl\u0148ovat. Pro potenci\u00e1ln\u00edho mobilizovan\u00e9ho by tak ne\u0161lo o\u00a0abstraktn\u00ed vlasteneckou povinnost, ale o\u00a0velmi konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed vyhl\u00eddku na z\u00e1kopy nejkrvav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky od roku 1945.<\/p>\n
Z t\u011bchto d\u016fvod\u016f m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt Moskva v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m ne\u017e v\u00a0roce 2022.\u00a0Tehdy mobilizace mnoho lid\u00ed p\u0159ekvapila, dnes u\u017e Rusov\u00e9 v\u011bd\u00ed, jak rychle m\u016f\u017ee po televizn\u00edm projevu n\u00e1sledovat povol\u00e1vac\u00ed rozkaz, jak obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 je dostat se po za\u0159azen\u00ed do syst\u00e9mu zp\u011bt dom\u016f a\u00a0jak vypadal chaos prvn\u00edch t\u00fddn\u016f. \u010c\u00e1st mu\u017e\u016f proto nemus\u00ed \u010dekat na samotn\u00e9 Putinovo ozn\u00e1men\u00ed a\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00fd r\u016fst z\u00e1jmu o\u00a0odchod do Gruzie nebo Arm\u00e9nie nazna\u010duje, \u017ee n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed u\u017e pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed dop\u0159edu.<\/p>\n
St\u00e1t je na druhou stranu tak\u00e9 p\u0159ipraven\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Elektronick\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 evidence, digit\u00e1ln\u00ed povol\u00e1vac\u00ed rozkazy a\u00a0mo\u017enost rychle omezit pr\u00e1vo vycestovat maj\u00ed zabr\u00e1nit opakov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2022, kdy mnoz\u00ed mu\u017ei jednodu\u0161e sedli do auta nebo koupili posledn\u00ed dostupnou letenku. Dal\u0161\u00ed mobilizace by tak mohla b\u00fdt administrativn\u011b mnohem \u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. To ale neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee by zmizel odpor, \u010d\u00e1st lid\u00ed by se pokusila odej\u00edt je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed jej\u00edm vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm, jin\u00ed by zm\u011bnili bydli\u0161t\u011b, skr\u00fdvali se p\u0159ed \u00fa\u0159ady nebo hledali zdravotn\u00ed a\u00a0pracovn\u00ed v\u00fdjimky. \u010c\u00edm tvrd\u0161\u00ed by st\u00e1t p\u0159i vym\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed povol\u00e1vac\u00edch rozkaz\u016f byl, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed spole\u010denskou cenu by platil.<\/p>\n
A pak je zde ot\u00e1zka ekonomiky. Rusko u\u017e nyn\u00ed trp\u00ed nedostatkem pracovn\u00edk\u016f. Odhady mluv\u00ed o\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2,3\u00a0milionu neobsazen\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst a\u00a0Moskva kv\u016fli nedostatku dom\u00e1c\u00ed pracovn\u00ed s\u00edly st\u00e1le aktivn\u011bji p\u0159iv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed zam\u011bstnance nap\u0159\u00edklad z\u00a0Indie. Dal\u0161\u00edch 300\u00a0tis\u00edc mu\u017e\u016f v\u00a0arm\u00e1d\u011b by tedy znamenalo 300\u00a0tis\u00edc lid\u00ed odebran\u00fdch podnik\u016fm, doprav\u011b, stavebnictv\u00ed nebo pr\u016fmyslu, a\u00a0k nim dal\u0161\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed by p\u0159ed povol\u00e1n\u00edm ode\u0161li do zahrani\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n
V roce 2022\u00a0tak Putin povolal 300\u00a0tis\u00edc mu\u017e\u016f, ale sou\u010dasn\u011b spustil emigraci, jej\u00ed\u017e rozsah mohl b\u00fdt a\u017e t\u0159ikr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed a\u00a0Rusko tehdy p\u0159i\u0161lo o\u00a0\u010d\u00e1st populace, kterou ekonomika pot\u0159ebovala nejv\u00edce\u00a0\u2013 mlad\u00e9 a\u00a0\u010dasto dob\u0159e vzd\u011blan\u00e9 lidi.<\/p>\n
O \u010dty\u0159i roky pozd\u011bji by se stejn\u00fd experiment odehr\u00e1val v\u00a0zemi s\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm nedostatkem pracovn\u00edk\u016f, po dal\u0161\u00edch letech v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t a\u00a0mezi mu\u017ei, kte\u0159\u00ed u\u017e p\u0159esn\u011b v\u011bd\u00ed, kam budou posl\u00e1ni. Rusko tedy mobilizovat dok\u00e1\u017ee. Ot\u00e1zkou z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, zda si m\u016f\u017ee dovolit v\u0161echno, co by mobilizace dal\u0161\u00edch stovek tis\u00edc mu\u017e\u016f spustila.<\/p>\n
P. S. D\u011bkuji, \u017ee jste si na\u0161li \u010das a\u00a0do\u010detli text a\u017e sem. Pokud v\u00e1s zaujal nebo v\u00e1m n\u011bco p\u0159inesl, zva\u017ete pros\u00edm sledov\u00e1n\u00ed, a\u0165 v\u00e1m neuniknou dal\u0161\u00ed podobn\u00e9 \u010dl\u00e1nky. Budu tak\u00e9 r\u00e1d za like nebo koment\u00e1\u0159. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 va\u0161e reakce je pro m\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1\u00a0\u2014 ukazuje mi, \u017ee podobn\u00fd obsah m\u00e1 smysl, a\u00a0motivuje m\u011b pokra\u010dovat d\u00e1l. Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed pod\u011bkov\u00e1n\u00ed pat\u0159\u00ed v\u0161em, kte\u0159\u00ed se rozhodli podpo\u0159it m\u011b finan\u010dn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvkem. Jm\u00e9na podporovatel\u016f bohu\u017eel nevid\u00edm, nemohu tedy pod\u011bkovat jednotliv\u011b, ale ka\u017ed\u00e9 takov\u00e9 podpory si velmi v\u00e1\u017e\u00edm.<\/p>\n
Zdroje:<\/p>\n
Office of the President of Ukraine\u00a0\u2013 Preparation for a\u00a0New Wave of Mobilization in Russia: Briefing by HUR and SZRU
https:\/\/www.president.gov.ua\/en\/news\/pidgotovka-novoyi-hvili-mobilizaciyi-v-rosiyi-brif-vid-gur-m-106137<\/p>\n
The Wall Street Journal\u00a0\u2013 Russia Tests Readiness for New Round of Military Mobilization
https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/russia\/russia-tests-readiness-for-new-round-of-military-mobilization-87d61b96<\/p>\n
The Guardian\u00a0\u2013 Russia \u2018losing 6,000\u00a0more troops in Ukraine each month than it can recruit\u2019
https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2026\/aug\/28\/russia-losing-6000-more-troops-than-it-can-recruit-each-month-in-ukraine-says-west<\/p>\n
Meduza\u00a0\u2013 Record crowds are crossing the Russia\u2013Georgia border at Verkhny Lars
https:\/\/meduza.io\/en\/feature\/2026\/08\/19\/record-crowds-are-crossing-the-russia-georgia-border-at-verkhny-lars-here-s-what-the-numbers-actually-show<\/p>\n
Meduza\u00a0\u2013 Emigration requests to Russian rights group Kovcheg jump 6.3\u00a0times amid new mobilization fears
https:\/\/meduza.io\/en\/news\/2026\/08\/21\/emigration-requests-to-russian-rights-group-kovcheg-jump-6-3-times-in-august-amid-new-mobilization-fears<\/p>\n
Meduza\u00a0\u2013 Armenia says it won\u2019t block Russians fleeing a\u00a0new mobilization
https:\/\/meduza.io\/en\/news\/2026\/08\/25\/armenia-says-it-won-t-block-russians-fleeing-a-new-mobilization<\/p>\n
RFE\/RL\u00a0\u2013 More Than 1,300\u00a0Detained In Anti-Mobilization Protests Across Russia
https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/russia-anti-mobilization-protests-detentions\/32046048.html<\/p>\n
The Moscow Times\u00a0\u2013 Anger Mounts as Russian Draftees Thrown Into Battle Without Training, Equipment
https:\/\/www.themoscowtimes.com\/2022\/10\/18\/anger-mounts-as-russian-draftees-thrown-into-battle-without-training-equipment-a79120<\/p>\n
Meduza \/ Forbes\u00a0\u2013 600\u2013700\u00a0thousand people left Russia after mobilization began
https:\/\/meduza.io\/news\/2022\/10\/04\/forbes-s-nachala-mobilizatsii-iz-rossii-uehali-600-700-tysyach-chelovek<\/p>\n
Reuters\u00a0\u2013 Russia, facing labour crunch worsened by war, pivots to India for workers
https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/world-at-work\/russia-facing-labour-crunch-worsened-by-war-pivots-india-workers-2026-02-11\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ukrajina za\u010dala o\u00a0p\u0159\u00edprav\u00e1ch nov\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 mobilizace ve\u0159ejn\u011b mluvit u\u017e b\u011bhem prvn\u00ed poloviny srpna. Prezident Volodymyr Zelenskyj 11.\u00a0srpna tvrdil,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":200735,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[11],"tags":[183,14782,170,2142,61,54,56,166,53,52],"class_list":["post-200734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-svet","tag-aktuality","tag-armenie","tag-gruzie","tag-mobilizace","tag-rusko","tag-svet","tag-valka-rusko-ukrajina","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-world","tag-world-news"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117204929997896595","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=200734"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200734\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/200735"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=200734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=200734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=200734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}