{"id":201330,"date":"2026-09-03T11:34:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T11:34:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/201330\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T11:34:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T11:34:11","slug":"prekazka-pro-zlato-draha-ropa-a-vyssi-vynosy-dluhopisu-srazeji-jeho-cenu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/201330\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eka pro zlato. Drah\u00e1 ropa a\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f sr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed jeho cenu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Po srpnov\u00e9m r\u016fstu ceny zlata na bezm\u00e1la 4\u00a0700\u00a0dolar\u016f za trojskou unci p\u0159i\u0161el obrat. Ve \u010dtvrtek r\u00e1no se kov obchodoval kolem 4\u00a0400\u00a0dolar\u016f za unci, v\u00a0posledn\u00edch dnech p\u0159itom zlevnil a\u017e ke 4\u00a0300\u00a0dolar\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Hrozba inflace<\/p>\n

Pro\u010d se kovu neda\u0159\u00ed? Na prvn\u00ed pohled je to trochu paradox. Geopolitick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b znovu s\u00edl\u00ed, co\u017e by za obvykl\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed m\u011blo podporovat popt\u00e1vku po takzvan\u00fdch bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch tr\u017en\u00edch p\u0159\u00edstavech, tedy investic\u00edch, kde jsou pen\u00edze v\u00a0dob\u011b ekonomick\u00fdch nebo politick\u00fdch turbulenc\u00ed dob\u0159e \u201eschovan\u00e9\u201c. Tedy i\u00a0po zlat\u011b.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee tentokr\u00e1t funguje jin\u00fd mechanismus, podobn\u011b jako na ja\u0159e, kdy\u017e byla v\u00e1lka v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu ve sv\u00e9 dosud nejv\u00edce hork\u00e9 f\u00e1zi. Ropa kv\u016fli geopolitick\u00e9mu nap\u011bt\u00ed znovu zdra\u017euje, co\u017e trhy vede ke spekulac\u00edm o\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e9m dal\u0161\u00edm vzestupu m\u00edry inflace. Investo\u0159i proto v\u00edce s\u00e1zej\u00ed na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed americk\u00e9 sazby a\u00a0rostou i\u00a0v\u00fdnosy vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f.<\/p>\n

\u201eNov\u00e9 americk\u00e9 \u00fadery v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu vyhnaly cenu ropy Brent nad 95\u00a0dolar\u016f za barel a\u00a0v\u00fdnosy americk\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f v\u00fd\u0161e,\u201c napsal k\u00a0\u00fatern\u00edmu v\u00fdvoji makl\u00e9\u0159 Michal Vacek z\u00a0J&T Banky. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, geopolitika zlatu pom\u00e1h\u00e1 jen do chv\u00edle, kdy skrze vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny ropy za\u010dne zvy\u0161ovat pravd\u011bpodobnost p\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky.<\/p>\n

Foto: Trading Economics<\/p>\n

Cena zlata za\u010dala v\u00fdrazn\u011b klesat po projevu p\u0159edsedy Fedu Kevina Warshe v\u00a0Jackson Hole.<\/p>\n

Na to upozor\u0148uje tak\u00e9 analytik Ondrej Gregu\u0161 z\u00a0XTB. \u201eNa jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00ed postoj p\u0159edsedy americk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky Kevina Warshe v\u00a0Jackson Hole minul\u00fd p\u00e1tek trhy v\u00fdrazn\u011b reagovaly. Prudce narostlo o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farok\u016f ji\u017e na z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed Fedu, proto\u017ee banka m\u016f\u017ee cht\u00edt d\u00e1t trhu najevo, \u017ee boj s\u00a0inflac\u00ed bere v\u00e1\u017en\u011b,\u201c uvedl.<\/p>\n

Dluhopisy jako konkurence<\/p>\n

Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed sazby a\u00a0s nimi tak\u00e9 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed dluhopisov\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy jsou p\u0159itom pro zlato p\u0159\u00edmou konkurenc\u00ed. \u00daroky z\u00a0dluh\u016f nejen Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, ale i\u00a0\u0159ady dal\u0161\u00edch velk\u00fdch ekonomik, p\u0159itom v\u00a0posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech rostou v\u00a0reakci na hlubok\u00e9 rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 deficity. Jako zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd bezpe\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav tak v\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti funguje sp\u00ed\u0161e americk\u00fd dolar, co\u017e d\u00e1le tla\u010d\u00ed n\u00ed\u017e cenu zlata pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00a0dolarech.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Ani pohled na cenov\u00fd graf optikou technick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy nevyzn\u00edv\u00e1 pro zlato nejl\u00e9pe. \u201eV\u00fdhled je opatrn\u00fd, by\u0165 ne nutn\u011b dlouhodob\u011b pesimistick\u00fd. Cenov\u00e1 oblast okolo 4\u00a0000\u00a0dolar\u016f za unci b\u011bhem l\u00e9ta fungovala jako velice siln\u00e1 podpora, sou\u010dasn\u00fd pokles p\u0159itom pova\u017euji pouze za p\u0159irozenou korekci po rychl\u00e9m srpnov\u00e9m r\u016fstu t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 k\u00a04\u00a0700\u00a0dolar\u016fm. Dlouhodob\u00fd trend je podle m\u011b d\u00e1l r\u016fstov\u00fd, ve v\u00fdhledu ale pracujeme s\u00a0horizontem dvou a\u017e \u010dty\u0159 let, ne pouze n\u011bkolika nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch t\u00fddn\u016f,\u201c zm\u00ednil ve sv\u00e9m koment\u00e1\u0159i Jan \u017delezn\u00edk ze spole\u010dnosti Zlat\u00e9 rezervy.<\/p>\n

Pro \u010desk\u00e9ho investora je p\u0159itom d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cena zlata v\u00a0korun\u00e1ch ne\u017e ta dolarov\u00e1. \u201ePr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00a0korun\u00e1ch se cena zlata dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 oblasti. V\u00a0grafu vid\u00edme dva 45denn\u00ed klouzav\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry\u00a0\u2013 jednoduch\u00fd (SMA, fialov\u00e1 k\u0159ivka) a\u00a0exponenci\u00e1ln\u00ed (EMA, \u010dern\u00e1 k\u0159ivka). V\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu r\u016fstov\u00fdch trend\u016f se pr\u00e1v\u011b oblast okolo 45denn\u00edho pr\u016fm\u011bru opakovan\u011b osv\u011bd\u010duje jako vhodn\u00e1 n\u00e1kupn\u00ed technick\u00e1 z\u00f3na. P\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd zp\u011btn\u00fd pohyb ceny pr\u00e1v\u011b k\u00a0t\u00e9to oblasti stoj\u00ed za pozornost, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e 1.\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed trh t\u00e9to \u00farovn\u011b dos\u00e1hl,\u201c dodal \u017delezn\u00edk.<\/p>\n

Foto: Zlat\u00e9 rezervy<\/p>\n

Cena zlata v\u00a0\u010desk\u00fdch korun\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Zlato samo o\u00a0sob\u011b negeneruje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd pravideln\u00fd v\u00fdnos. P\u0159i r\u016fstu v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f a\u00a0posilov\u00e1n\u00ed dolaru tak \u010del\u00ed p\u0159irozen\u00e9mu tlaku, proto\u017ee v\u00a0konkurenci vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch takzvan\u011b bezrizikov\u00fdch sazeb (americk\u00e9 dluhopisy jsou nad\u00e1le glob\u00e1ln\u00edm symbolem bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 investice) maj\u00ed investo\u0159i motivaci kupovat pr\u00e1v\u011b aktiva, kter\u00e1 nab\u00edzej\u00ed pravideln\u00fd a\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u011b rostouc\u00ed v\u00fdnos.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1jem centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank a\u00a0\u010dek\u00e1n\u00ed na \u00fadaje z\u00a0ekonomiky<\/p>\n

\u201eJe tu nav\u00edc struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed faktor v\u00a0podob\u011b n\u00e1kup\u016f centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank. Ty v\u00a0\u010dervnu koupily zhruba sto\u00a0tun zlata oproti 66\u00a0tun\u00e1m v\u00a0kv\u011btnu. To je d\u016fvod, pro\u010d sou\u010dasnou korekci automaticky nepova\u017euji za zm\u011bnu dlouhodob\u00e9ho trendu,\u201c dodal Martin Lemb\u00e1k z\u00a0Lembros Commodity Advisors.<\/p>\n

Dom\u00e1c\u00ed i\u00a0zahrani\u010dn\u00ed analytici se p\u0159itom veskrze shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee pro v\u00fdhled v\u00fdvoje americk\u00e9 m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky i\u00a0tr\u017en\u00edch sazeb budou v\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch dnech vedle v\u00fdvoje cen ropy podstatn\u00e1 n\u011bkter\u00e1 americk\u00e1 makrodata. Do konce t\u00fddne bude v\u00a0tomto sm\u011bru nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed zpr\u00e1va o\u00a0tvorb\u011b pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst v\u00a0USA, kde se po \u010dervencov\u00e9m poklesu \u010dek\u00e1 obnoven\u00ed r\u016fstu na zhruba 60\u00a0tis\u00edc nov\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch pozic.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Obr\u00e1zek kondice americk\u00e9 ekonomiky budou dokreslovat tak\u00e9 indexy n\u00e1kupn\u00edch mana\u017eer\u016f nebo obchodn\u00ed bilance. \u201eSlab\u0161\u00ed trh pr\u00e1ce a\u00a0obecn\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed \u00fadaje z\u00a0ekonomiky by mohly vr\u00e1tit do hry pokles sazeb a\u00a0zlato podpo\u0159it, siln\u00e1 data by naopak mohla korekci na trhu se zlatem prohloubit,\u201c napsala Daria Efanova ze spole\u010dnosti Sucden Financial.<\/p>\n

Kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b se tedy trh se zlatem mus\u00ed pot\u00fdkat se siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm dolarem, vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi v\u00fdnosy vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f a\u00a0dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed ropou. Dlouhodob\u011b se naopak m\u016f\u017ee op\u0159\u00edt o\u00a0popt\u00e1vku centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank.<\/p>\n

Tradi\u010dn\u00ed klidn\u00fd tr\u017en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstav pro obdob\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 nejistoty kv\u016fli specifick\u00e9mu ohnisku t\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u00e9 nefunguje, konflikt v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu toti\u017e ohro\u017euje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dod\u00e1vky ropy a\u00a0p\u016fsob\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b proinfla\u010dn\u011b. \u010c\u00edm m\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 jsou geopolitick\u00e9 novinky, t\u00edm siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed b\u00fdv\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka po \u017elut\u00e9m kovu. Pokud ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 zdra\u017euje ropa a\u00a0rostou dluhopisov\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy, stejn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy mohou b\u00fdt pro trh se zlatem brzdou. Tento paradox p\u0159itom minim\u00e1ln\u011b v\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch dnech m\u016f\u017ee pokra\u010dovat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Po srpnov\u00e9m r\u016fstu ceny zlata na bezm\u00e1la 4\u00a0700\u00a0dolar\u016f za trojskou unci p\u0159i\u0161el obrat. Ve \u010dtvrtek r\u00e1no se kov…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":201331,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,6872,4075,686,17746,558],"class_list":["post-201330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-drahe-kovy","tag-geopolitika","tag-inflace","tag-komodity","tag-zlato"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117206900584908917","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/201330","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=201330"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/201330\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/201331"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=201330"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=201330"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=201330"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}