{"id":205395,"date":"2026-09-07T07:58:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T07:58:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/205395\/"},"modified":"2026-09-07T07:58:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T07:58:14","slug":"ifa-2026-ceka-nas-nejhorsi-krize-za-posledni-roky-varuji-experti-kvuli-ai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/205395\/","title":{"rendered":"IFA 2026: \u010cek\u00e1 n\u00e1s nejhor\u0161\u00ed krize za posledn\u00ed roky, varuj\u00ed experti kv\u016fli AI"},"content":{"rendered":"

D\u016fvodem je p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm obrovsk\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka datov\u00fdch center po pam\u011b\u0165ov\u00fdch \u010dipech. V\u00fdrobci polovodi\u010d\u016f p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st v\u00fdrobn\u00edch kapacit k\u00a0vysoce v\u00fdkonn\u00fdm pam\u011btem HBM a\u00a0serverov\u00e9 DRAM, kter\u00e9 jsou nezbytn\u00e9 pro provoz generativn\u00ed AI. Kapacita, kter\u00e1 by jinak mohla sm\u011b\u0159ovat do telefon\u016f, po\u010d\u00edta\u010d\u016f nebo hern\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, tak kon\u010d\u00ed u\u00a0AI infrastruktury.<\/p>\n

\u201ePam\u011b\u0165ov\u00e1 tsunami, p\u0159ed kterou jsme varovali, nyn\u00ed naplno zasahuje trh a\u00a0spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed platit \u00fa\u010det za AI,\u201c uvedl Francisco Jeronimo, viceprezident spole\u010dnosti IDC<\/a>. Podle n\u011bj letos pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 prodejn\u00ed cena smartphonu vzroste o\u00a027,6\u00a0procenta na 581\u00a0dolar\u016f (12\u00a0100\u00a0K\u010d).<\/p>\n

\u201e\u00c9ra levn\u00fdch smartphon\u016f skon\u010dila,\u201c dodal s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee trh spot\u0159ebn\u00ed elektroniky \u010dek\u00e1 nejhor\u0161\u00ed krize za n\u011bkolik posledn\u00edch let.<\/p>\n

<\/a>V\u00fdrobci se p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed k\u00a0dra\u017e\u0161\u00edm model\u016fm<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edsla IDC ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee probl\u00e9m u\u017e nen\u00ed pouze teoretick\u00fd. Firma nyn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee celosv\u011btov\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky smartphon\u016f letos klesnou o\u00a016,7\u00a0procenta, co\u017e by byl nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u00ed propad v\u00a0historii trhu. Sou\u010dasn\u011b m\u00e1 hodnota cel\u00e9ho trhu vzr\u016fst, proto\u017ee pokles po\u010dtu prodan\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017e\u00ed r\u016fst jejich cen.<\/p>\n

Nejv\u00edce ohro\u017een\u00e9 jsou levn\u00e9 telefony. IDC upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee loni se prodalo 173\u00a0milion\u016f smartphon\u016f s\u00a0cenou pod 100\u00a0dolar\u016f (2100\u00a0K\u010d). Tento segment podle analytik\u016f \u010del\u00ed existen\u010dn\u00edmu probl\u00e9mu. V\u00fdrobci u\u017e omezuj\u00ed nab\u00eddku nejlevn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch model\u016f a\u00a0p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed se k\u00a0dra\u017e\u0161\u00edm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm, kde maj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed prostor absorbovat rostouc\u00ed n\u00e1klady.<\/p>\n

Podobn\u011b situaci hodnot\u00ed tak\u00e9 Counterpoint Research<\/a>. Jeho hlavn\u00ed analytik Yang Wang ozna\u010dil sou\u010dasn\u00fd nedostatek pam\u011bt\u00ed za \u201enejv\u00edce disruptivn\u00ed nab\u00eddkovou ud\u00e1lost, jakou kdy smartphonov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl za\u017eil\u201c. Podle n\u011bj se sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace li\u0161\u00ed od d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch kriz\u00ed zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch slabou popt\u00e1vkou: sou\u010dasn\u00fd probl\u00e9m je na stran\u011b nab\u00eddky a\u00a0nelze jej jednodu\u0161e vy\u0159e\u0161it zm\u011bnou cen nebo produktov\u00e9 strategie.<\/p>\n

Counterpoint o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee dod\u00e1vky smartphon\u016f letos klesnou o\u00a013,9\u00a0procenta. U\u00a0pam\u011bt\u00ed LPDDR4\/5, pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch v\u00a0telefonech, firma v\u00a0kv\u011btnu o\u010dek\u00e1vala, \u017ee ceny ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed vzrostou na trojn\u00e1sobek \u00farovn\u011b z\u00a0konce roku 2025.\u00a0Nedostatek podle n\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159etrvat a\u017e do druh\u00e9 poloviny roku 2027.<\/p>\n

Nejde jen o\u00a0dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed telefony<\/p>\n

Dopady se p\u0159el\u00e9vaj\u00ed do cel\u00e9ho sv\u011bta spot\u0159ebn\u00ed elektroniky. Na IFA se podle n\u011bmeck\u00e9 agentury DPA letos v\u00fdrobci pot\u00fdkaj\u00ed s\u00a0nedostatkem modern\u00edch procesor\u016f a\u00a0rychl\u00fdch pam\u011b\u0165ov\u00fdch modul\u016f. NIQ upozor\u0148uje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na smartphony, notebooky, stoln\u00ed po\u010d\u00edta\u010de, hern\u00ed hardware a\u00a0konzole. <\/p>\n

V\u00fdrobci se sna\u017e\u00ed soust\u0159edit na nej\u017e\u00e1dan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed konfigurace, nap\u0159\u00edklad telefony s\u00a0256\u00a0nebo 512GB \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011bm, a\u00a0omezuj\u00ed po\u010det nab\u00edzen\u00fdch variant.<\/p>\n

Alexander Dehmel z\u00a0NIQ p\u0159itom varuje, \u017ee nejde o\u00a0n\u00e1vrat k\u00a0plo\u0161n\u00e9mu v\u00fdpadku dod\u00e1vek, jak\u00fd spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 za\u017eili v\u00a0dob\u011b pandemie. N\u011bkter\u00e9 v\u00fdkonn\u00e9 konfigurace s\u00a0velkou kapacitou \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b v\u0161ak podle n\u011bj mohou zdra\u017eit nebo b\u00fdt dostupn\u00e9 a\u017e po del\u0161\u00edm \u010dek\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1l jde americk\u00fd Gartner<\/a>. Podle n\u011bj mohou kombinovan\u00e9 ceny DRAM a\u00a0SSD do konce roku vzr\u016fst o\u00a0130\u00a0procent. To by znamenalo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 17procentn\u00ed r\u016fst cen po\u010d\u00edta\u010d\u016f a\u00a013procentn\u00ed r\u016fst cen smartphon\u016f oproti roku 2025.<\/p>\n

\u201eJde o\u00a0nejprud\u0161\u00ed pokles dod\u00e1vek za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed za v\u00edce ne\u017e deset let,\u201c uvedl analytik Gartneru Ranjit Atwal. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny podle n\u011bj z\u00fa\u017e\u00ed nab\u00eddku za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a\u00a0p\u0159im\u011bj\u00ed z\u00e1kazn\u00edky pou\u017e\u00edvat sv\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstroje d\u00e9le, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se z\u00e1sadn\u011b zm\u011bn\u00ed obvykl\u00fd cyklus jejich obm\u011bny.<\/p>\n

Atwal p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 tak\u00e9 velmi tvrd\u00fd z\u00e1sah do levn\u00fdch po\u010d\u00edta\u010d\u016f. \u201eSegment z\u00e1kladn\u00edch po\u010d\u00edta\u010d\u016f pod 500\u00a0dolar\u016f (necel\u00fdch 11\u00a0tis\u00edc) do roku 2028\u00a0zmiz\u00ed,\u201c uvedl.<\/p>\n

Chyb\u00ed \u201edoslova v\u0161echno\u201c<\/p>\n

O rozsahu probl\u00e9mu sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed i\u00a0slova analytika spole\u010dnosti Counterpoint MS Hwanga, kter\u00fd situaci v\u00a0rozhovoru pro Financial Times<\/a> shrnul stru\u010dn\u011b: \u201eDoslova v\u0161echno\u201c podle n\u011bj trp\u00ed nedostatkem v\u00a0kategorii spot\u0159ebn\u00ed elektroniky.<\/p>\n

Podle Financial Times<\/a> se ceny DRAM za posledn\u00ed rok zv\u00fd\u0161ily p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b p\u011btin\u00e1sobn\u011b a\u00a0kontraktn\u00ed ceny nyn\u00ed rostou o\u00a010\u00a0a\u017e 20\u00a0procent mezikvart\u00e1ln\u011b. V\u00fdrobci pam\u011bt\u00ed z\u00e1rove\u0148 omezuj\u00ed produkci levn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch \u010dip\u016f pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch ve spot\u0159ebn\u00ed elektronice a\u00a0d\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159ednost pam\u011btem HBM vyu\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdm v\u00a0AI akceler\u00e1torech.<\/p>\n

D\u016fsledky u\u017e nejsou pouze na pap\u00ed\u0159e. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed v\u00fdrobci zvy\u0161uj\u00ed ceny, jin\u00ed m\u011bn\u00ed konstrukci sv\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed tak, aby pot\u0159ebovali m\u00e9n\u011b pam\u011bti.<\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9mem je p\u0159itom \u010das. V\u00fdrobci polovodi\u010d\u016f investuj\u00ed do nov\u00fdch tov\u00e1ren, ale jejich v\u00fdstavba trv\u00e1 roky. \u201eNen\u00ed to tak, \u017ee bychom zapnuli vyp\u00edna\u010d a\u00a0najednou z\u00a0v\u00fdrobn\u00edch linek za\u010daly vyj\u00ed\u017ed\u011bt \u010dipy,\u201c \u0159ekl podle John Neuffer, prezident Semiconductor Industry Association.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto se sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace li\u0161\u00ed od b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho v\u00fdpadku dod\u00e1vek. Pokud bude popt\u00e1vka po AI infrastruktu\u0159e d\u00e1l r\u016fst, budou v\u00fdrobci pam\u011bt\u00ed \u0159e\u0161it, kam omezenou v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacitu p\u0159id\u011blit.<\/p>\n

A pr\u00e1v\u011b zde se na berl\u00ednsk\u00e9 IFA potk\u00e1vaj\u00ed dv\u011b tv\u00e1\u0159e sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho technologick\u00e9ho boomu. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b je vid\u011bt rychl\u00fd n\u00e1stup um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence do telefon\u016f, po\u010d\u00edta\u010d\u016f, dom\u00e1c\u00edch spot\u0159ebi\u010d\u016f, br\u00fdl\u00ed i\u00a0robot\u016f. Na stran\u011b druh\u00e9 se ukazuje \u00fa\u010det za tuto technologickou revoluci: dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed komponenty, m\u00e9n\u011b levn\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a\u00a0st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed tlak na v\u00fdrobce, aby si vybrali, kter\u00fdm z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016fm a\u00a0produkt\u016fm omezenou kapacitu nab\u00eddnou.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"D\u016fvodem je p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm obrovsk\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka datov\u00fdch center po pam\u011b\u0165ov\u00fdch \u010dipech. V\u00fdrobci polovodi\u010d\u016f p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st v\u00fdrobn\u00edch kapacit k\u00a0vysoce v\u00fdkonn\u00fdm…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":205396,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[4125,67,68,45891,679,6367,126,1105],"class_list":["post-205395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-berlin","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-ifa-berlin","tag-krize","tag-pameti","tag-umela-inteligence-ai","tag-veletrh"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117228700218219853","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205395","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=205395"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205395\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/205396"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=205395"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=205395"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=205395"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}