{"id":206517,"date":"2026-09-08T06:00:08","date_gmt":"2026-09-08T06:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/206517\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T06:00:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T06:00:08","slug":"mene-plynu-nez-behem-krize-a-hrozici-mrazy-z-jevu-el-nino-evropu-ceka-tezka-zima","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/206517\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00e9n\u011b plynu ne\u017e b\u011bhem krize a hroz\u00edc\u00ed mrazy z jevu El Ni\u00f1o. Evropu \u010dek\u00e1 t\u011b\u017ek\u00e1 zima"},"content":{"rendered":"

Energetick\u00e1 s\u00e1zka na to, \u017ee se situace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b stabilizuje p\u0159ed topnou sezonou, definitivn\u011b ztroskotala. Doprava v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu klesla<\/a> na nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od kv\u011btna. Denn\u011b j\u00edm propluje jen des\u00edtka lod\u00ed. Ceny zemn\u00edho plynu od za\u010d\u00e1tku l\u00e9ta v\u00fdrazn\u011b stouply a tempo pln\u011bn\u00ed evropsk\u00fdch z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f je varovn\u00e9. Jejich stav je i v \u010cesku pod sezonn\u00edm minimem. Zima p\u0159itom bude kv\u016fli jevu El Ni\u00f1o velmi nevyzpytateln\u00e1.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Unijn\u00ed plynov\u00e1 \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b jsou nyn\u00ed pln\u00e1<\/a> p\u0159esn\u011b ze dvou t\u0159etin, v pr\u016fm\u011bru to touto dobou b\u00fdv\u00e1 84 procent. Probl\u00e9my by tak mohly nastat v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b chladn\u00e9ho po\u010das\u00ed, p\u0159i velk\u00e9m v\u00fdpadku v\u00fdroby z obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f nebo kv\u016fli naru\u0161en\u00ed nestabiln\u00edch dod\u00e1vek LNG. \u201ePokud budeme \u010delit kombinovan\u00e9mu \u0161oku, bude to problematick\u00e9,\u201c \u0159ekla Financial Times<\/a> Lucie Boost ze sdru\u017een\u00ed Gas Infrastructure Europe.\u00a0<\/p>\n

N\u011bmecko m\u016f\u017ee za\u017e\u00edt kru\u0161nou zimu<\/p>\n

Odborn\u00edci varuj\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na zimu budou letos problematick\u00e9 vzhledem k siln\u00e9mu meteorologick\u00e9mu jevu El Ni\u00f1o. Teoreticky by mohl p\u0159in\u00e9st m\u00edrn\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed s minimem sn\u011bhu, ale tak\u00e9 extr\u00e9my. \u201eRozvoj El Ni\u00f1a m\u016f\u017ee v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e vyvolat \u0159et\u011bzovou reakci,\u201c podotkla<\/a> Evropsk\u00e1 kosmick\u00e1 agentura (ESA) s t\u00edm, \u017ee nelze vylou\u010dit v\u00fdvoj, kter\u00fd uvrhne star\u00fd kontinent do mraz\u016f a sn\u011bhov\u00fdch bou\u0159\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Varovn\u00e1 je p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm situace v N\u011bmecku, kde jsou z\u00e1sobn\u00edky p\u0159ed kritick\u00fdm obdob\u00edm napln\u011bny jen o n\u011bco v\u00edce ne\u017e z poloviny. Pr\u016fm\u011br tam p\u0159itom b\u00fdv\u00e1 zhruba o 30 procentn\u00edch bod\u016f vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. \u201ePokud se k nedostate\u010dn\u011b napln\u011bn\u00fdm z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016fm p\u0159id\u00e1 velmi chladn\u00e1 zima, N\u011bmecko u\u017e nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt schopno pln\u011b pokr\u00fdt b\u011b\u017enou popt\u00e1vku po plynu,\u201c \u0159ekl Euronews<\/a> Sebastian Heinermann ze svazu provozovatel\u016f z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f plynu INES.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Premianty kontinentu jsou pak Polsko a Portugalsko, zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed jim jednotky procent pr\u00e1zdn\u00e9ho m\u00edsta. \u010cesko je na tom se 72 procenty v EU nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b, ale t\u011bsn\u011b pod sv\u00fdm sezonn\u00edm minimem. \u201eJe to sice m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech, ale o pozn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e v okoln\u00edch zem\u00edch s v\u00fdjimkou Polska. To v\u0161ak disponuje v\u00fdrazn\u011b men\u0161\u00ed kapacitou z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f a m\u00e1 v nich mnohem men\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st zimn\u00ed spot\u0159eby,\u201c vysv\u011btluje v\u00fdkonn\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f Svazu energetiky \u010cR Josef Kotrba, podle n\u011bho\u017e nedostatek p\u0159es zimu nehroz\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u0158\u00edm pob\u00edzel firmy k pln\u011bn\u00ed<\/p>\n

\u201eSituace nen\u00ed znepokojiv\u00e1,\u201c tvrd\u00ed i Michal Macenauer z poradensk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti EGU. \u201eP\u0159esto\u017ee se pohybujeme v\u00fdrazn\u011b pod \u00farovn\u00ed napln\u011bnosti z p\u0159edchoz\u00edch let, je to sp\u00ed\u0161e probl\u00e9m obchodn\u00ed, nikoliv technick\u00fd. Pokud bude v\u00fd\u0161e importu a tempo vtl\u00e1\u010den\u00ed posledn\u00edch t\u00fddn\u016f p\u0159etrv\u00e1vat i v pr\u016fb\u011bhu z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, dos\u00e1hne stav napln\u011bnosti \u010desk\u00fdch z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f osmdes\u00e1ti procent na p\u0159elomu z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed a \u0159\u00edjna,\u201c uvedl.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pom\u011brn\u011b dob\u0159e je na tom v sou\u010dasnosti It\u00e1lie, kde vl\u00e1da vyhl\u00e1sila pob\u00eddky k hromad\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1sob. Zem\u011b se tak v l\u00e9t\u011b stala nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm evropsk\u00fdm dovozcem LNG. Tehdy se spekulovalo o tom, zda \u0158\u00edm ne\u010din\u00ed chybu a nevytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed si zbyte\u010dn\u011b drah\u00e9 z\u00e1soby. N\u011bkter\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti odkl\u00e1daly n\u00e1kupy ve v\u00ed\u0159e, \u017ee v\u00e1lka na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b brzy skon\u010d\u00ed a ceny plynu p\u0159ed p\u0159\u00edpravou na zimn\u00ed sezonu klesnou.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b se italsk\u00fd postup jev\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b proz\u00edrav\u011b. Zat\u00edmco loni touto dobou se prod\u00e1val plyn v nizozemsk\u00e9m virtu\u00e1ln\u00edm obchodn\u00edm uzlu TTF za zhruba 32 eur za megawatthodinu, na za\u010d\u00e1tku l\u00e9ta kolem 40 eur, nyn\u00ed je to p\u0159es 73 eur. Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed ceny jsou p\u0159itom stejn\u00e9 nebo dokonce m\u00edrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ceny na zimn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce, siln\u00e1 motivace k pln\u011bn\u00ed skladi\u0161\u0165 tak st\u00e1le chyb\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

EU u\u017e se ne\u017eene za pln\u00fdmi z\u00e1sobn\u00edky<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zkou samoz\u0159ejm\u011b je, jak velk\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem n\u00edzk\u00fd stav z\u00e1sob je. Evropsk\u00e1 unie po zku\u0161enosti s energetickou kriz\u00ed v dob\u011b za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b vy\u017eadovala, aby byly z\u00e1sobn\u00edky pln\u00e9 na 90 procent k za\u010d\u00e1tku listopadu. N\u011bkter\u00e9 zem\u011b si v\u0161ak st\u011b\u017eovaly, \u017ee tento po\u017eadavek vedl ke spekulac\u00edm a ke zbyte\u010dn\u00e9mu r\u016fstu cen plynu i v dob\u011b dostatku dod\u00e1vek. Brusel pravidla uvolnil i v souvislosti s konfliktem v \u00cdr\u00e1nu.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201eU\u017e ned\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl plnit skladovac\u00ed prostory tak, jak se to d\u011blalo,\u201c citoval The Wall Street Journal<\/a> Bena McWilliamse z energetick\u00e9ho think tanku Bruegel. Bloomberg<\/a> ov\u0161em ned\u00e1vno vypo\u010detl, \u017ee dostat unijn\u00ed \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b alespo\u0148 na n\u00edzk\u00fd c\u00edl napln\u011bn\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161i 75 procent bude p\u0159i nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cen\u011b plynu st\u00e1t zhruba sedm miliard eur.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Plyn by nav\u00edc musel p\u0159ib\u00fdvat tempem, jak\u00e9 nebylo v tomto obdob\u00ed od roku 2022 zaznamen\u00e1no. Analytici varuj\u00ed, \u017ee takov\u00e1 aktivita by mohla v\u00e9st k dal\u0161\u00edmu prudk\u00e9mu zdra\u017een\u00ed komodity. Spole\u010dnost Goldman Sachs ned\u00e1vno uvedla, \u017ee by se plyn mohl vy\u0161plhat nad 100 eur za megawatthodinu. \u201eDal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst cen p\u0159ed zimou je docela pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd,\u201c \u0159ekl Bloombergu i Udayan Bhattacharya ze spole\u010dnosti Global Risk Management.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Odb\u011bratel\u00e9 poc\u00edt\u00ed r\u016fst cen a\u017e \u010dasem<\/p>\n

Poradensk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost Oxford Economics m\u00edn\u00ed, \u017ee zm\u011bny velkoobchodn\u00edch cen se pln\u011b p\u0159etav\u00ed do t\u011bch spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch zhruba za p\u016fl roku, a\u010dkoliv tempo reakce se podle n\u00ed v jednotliv\u00fdch zem\u00edch dost li\u0161\u00ed. Macenauer m\u00edn\u00ed, \u017ee dopad na \u010desk\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti bude z\u00e1viset na dal\u0161\u00edm geopolitick\u00e9m v\u00fdvoji.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201eMal\u00ed odb\u011bratel\u00e9 to poc\u00edt\u00ed jen \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b a se zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm p\u016fl roku a\u017e rok. Ti fixovan\u00ed prakticky v\u016fbec, pokud maj\u00ed fixov\u00e1no na dva a v\u00edce let. Velc\u00ed nezaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed odb\u011bratel\u00e9 jsou na tom h\u016f\u0159e. Ale i velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st velkoodb\u011bratel\u016f m\u00e1 cenu zaji\u0161t\u011bnou na del\u0161\u00ed dobu ne\u017e jeden a\u017e dva kvart\u00e1ly,\u201c podot\u00fdk\u00e1.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Hypot\u00e9ky<\/a>Hypot\u00e9ky p\u0159estaly bank\u00e1m vyd\u011bl\u00e1vat. Klienti to mohou brzy poc\u00edtit, sazby protnou psychologickou hranici<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201eNa\u0161i obchodn\u00edci nakupuj\u00ed plyn podle o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 spot\u0159eby s p\u0159edstihem. Proto tak\u00e9 nemus\u00ed prom\u00edtat dramatick\u00e9 r\u016fsty ceny plynu na burze do ceny pro z\u00e1kazn\u00edky. Jestli\u017ee v\u0161ak sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace s p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00edm dod\u00e1vek LNG z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu potrv\u00e1, za\u010dnou se tyto ceny postupn\u011b propisovat i do maloobchodn\u00edch cen. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b ve \u010dty\u0159iceti procentech \u010dasu ur\u010duj\u00ed cenu elekt\u0159iny plynov\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny, plat\u00ed tot\u00e9\u017e i pro elekt\u0159inu,\u201c tvrd\u00ed Kotrba.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nov\u00e1 americk\u00e1 kapacita na obzoru<\/p>\n

Hodn\u011b nyn\u00ed bude z\u00e1viset na apetitu asijsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na \u010c\u00edny. Hore\u010dn\u00e1 snaha problematick\u00fdch zem\u00ed, jako jsou N\u011bmecko, Nizozemsko a Belgie, nakupovat by mohla vyost\u0159it konkurenci i uvnit\u0159 Evropy. Dal\u0161\u00ed sv\u00edzel p\u0159ijde uprost\u0159ed zimy. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku ledna vstoup\u00ed v \u00fa\u010dinnost \u00fapln\u00fd unijn\u00ed z\u00e1kaz n\u00e1kupu rusk\u00e9ho zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho plynu.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pozitivn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vou ale je, \u017ee se z\u00e1rove\u0148 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed exportn\u00edch kapacit americk\u00e9ho LNG. D\u00edky zlep\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdvozn\u00edch mo\u017enost\u00ed a od\u0159\u00edznut\u00ed katarsk\u00e9ho LNG od odb\u011bratel\u016f u\u017e v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b leto\u0161n\u00edho roku vzrostl<\/a> americk\u00fd export t\u00e9to suroviny t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o \u010dtvrtinu.\u00a0<\/p>\n

N\u011bkter\u00e9 experty i politiky ale znepokojuje rychle rostouc\u00ed pod\u00edl americk\u00e9 suroviny na evropsk\u00e9m dovozu. Varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed novou z\u00e1vislost\u00ed,<\/a>\u00a0kter\u00e1 nav\u00edc p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed v dob\u011b napjat\u00fdch vztah\u016f EU s Washingtonem.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Energetick\u00e1 s\u00e1zka na to, \u017ee se situace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b stabilizuje p\u0159ed topnou sezonou, definitivn\u011b ztroskotala. Doprava v…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":206518,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,42,9267,150,106,571,29210,679,11376,375,117,1314],"class_list":["post-206517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-cesko","tag-el-nino","tag-energetika","tag-evropa","tag-evropska-unie","tag-josef-kotrba","tag-krize","tag-loterie","tag-nemecko","tag-polsko","tag-zima"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117233898621702407","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=206517"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206517\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/206518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=206517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=206517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=206517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}