{"id":207293,"date":"2026-09-08T17:11:12","date_gmt":"2026-09-08T17:11:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/207293\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T17:11:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T17:11:12","slug":"ano-by-v-praze-vyhralo-starostove-rostou-co-stoji-za-zmenou-preferenci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/207293\/","title":{"rendered":"ANO by v\u00a0Praze vyhr\u00e1lo, Starostov\u00e9 rostou. Co stoj\u00ed za zm\u011bnou preferenc\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u010cesko za m\u011bs\u00edc \u010dekaj\u00ed komun\u00e1ln\u00ed volby, ve kter\u00fdch se rozhodne, kdo dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i roky povede radnice men\u0161\u00edch m\u011bst, ale i\u00a0pra\u017esk\u00fd magistr\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

Agentura Median v\u00a0pond\u011bl\u00ed zve\u0159ejnila pr\u016fzkum pro server Praha IN, ve kter\u00e9m ukazuje rozlo\u017een\u00ed voli\u010dsk\u00fdch preferenc\u00ed v\u00a0hlavn\u00edm m\u011bst\u011b.<\/p>\n

Podle zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed Medianu, kter\u00e9 agentura zpracov\u00e1vala na p\u0159elomu srpna a\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, by nyn\u00ed volby vyhr\u00e1lo hnut\u00ed ANO, kter\u00e9 by z\u00edskalo 23,3\u00a0% hlas\u016f. Se ztr\u00e1tou necel\u00e9ho procenta by na druh\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b skon\u010dili Starostov\u00e9. Koalice Spolu pro Prahu by z\u00edskala 13,9\u00a0procenta, Praha sob\u011b o\u00a0procento m\u00e9n\u011b. V\u00a0zastupitelstvu by zasedli i\u00a0Pir\u00e1ti, koalice veden\u00e1 SPD a\u00a0Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b.<\/p>\n

Politolog Fakulty soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011bd UK Petr J\u00fcptner, kter\u00fd se specializuje na komun\u00e1ln\u00ed politiku, pro Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy popisuje, pro\u010d moment\u00e1ln\u011b n\u011bkter\u00e9 vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed strany v\u00a0Praze ztr\u00e1c\u00ed, zat\u00edmco Starostov\u00e9 rostou, nebo pro\u010d hnut\u00ed ANO moment\u00e1ln\u011b podle pr\u016fzkum\u016f vede.<\/p>\n

Nov\u00fd pr\u016fzkum Medianu pro Prahu ukazuje, \u017ee by komun\u00e1ln\u00ed volby vyhr\u00e1lo ANO. To v\u00a0Praze zv\u00edt\u011bzilo naposledy v\u00a0roce 2014.\u00a0Jak si vysv\u011btlujete jeho nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed preference p\u0159es 23\u00a0procent, kdy\u017e l\u00eddr hnut\u00ed Jan Hu\u0161bauer nen\u00ed tolik zn\u00e1m\u00fd?<\/p>\n

P\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fd v\u00fdsledek ur\u010dit\u011b odpov\u00edd\u00e1 preferenc\u00edm hnut\u00ed v\u00a0Praze. To, \u017ee vede pr\u016fzkum, je dan\u00e9 pozic\u00ed ostatn\u00edch stran. T\u00edm, jak sestavovaly kandid\u00e1tn\u00ed listiny, s\u00a0k\u00fdm jsou v\u00a0koalici. Nevid\u00edm tu \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd dal\u0161\u00ed velmi siln\u00fd subjekt, kter\u00fd by mohl volby vyhr\u00e1t. Hnut\u00ed ANO je tak moment\u00e1ln\u011b nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. To se ale m\u016f\u017ee je\u0161t\u011b zm\u011bnit. V\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bsu jsou podle pr\u016fzkumu Starostov\u00e9.<\/p>\n

V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b hnut\u00ed ANO je relativn\u011b jedno, kdo je v\u00a0\u010dele kandid\u00e1tky. Podporovatel\u00e9 ANO vol\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm profil strany a\u00a0Andreje Babi\u0161e jako l\u00eddra. V\u00a0komun\u00e1ln\u00edch volb\u00e1ch pak nen\u00ed jedni\u010dka kandid\u00e1tky tak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1. \u017dijeme v\u00a0dob\u011b, kdy voli\u010di neust\u00e1le popt\u00e1vaj\u00ed nov\u00e9 l\u00eddry a\u00a0tv\u00e1\u0159e. T\u00edm, \u017ee hnut\u00ed ANO nasadilo nov\u00e1\u010dka, kter\u00fd na t\u011bch billboardech nevypad\u00e1 \u0161patn\u011b, kandid\u00e1tce nijak ne\u0161kod\u00ed. Nen\u00ed spojen ani s\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdmi kauzami, na rozd\u00edl t\u0159eba od pana Prokopa (z \u010dela kandid\u00e1tky odstoupil kv\u016fli nesrovnalostem v\u00a0majetkov\u00e9m p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00ed) . Mysl\u00edm si tedy, \u017ee preferenc\u00edm hnut\u00ed pom\u00e1h\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Mus\u00edme si p\u0159itom uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee v\u00a0minulosti m\u011blo ANO velk\u00fd probl\u00e9m s\u00a0hled\u00e1n\u00edm l\u00eddr\u016f. V\u00a0p\u0159edvolebn\u00edch debat\u00e1ch by se ale mohla projevit n\u011bjak\u00e1 jeho politick\u00e1 nezku\u0161enost, za kterou by ANO mohlo zaplatit. Obecn\u011b ale sp\u00ed\u0161e Hu\u0161bauer hraje hnut\u00ed ANO do karet.<\/p>\n

Foto: Profimedia.cz<\/p>\n

Jan Hu\u0161bauer.<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fzkum v\u00a0Praze uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee Starost\u016fm rostou preference. Tak\u00e9 celost\u00e1tn\u011b p\u0159edb\u011bhli ODS. Kdyby takto dopadly volby a\u00a0Spolu skon\u010dilo se 14\u00a0procenty a\u017e t\u0159et\u00ed, mohlo by to ohrozit Martina Kupku v\u00a0\u010dele strany?<\/p>\n

Obecn\u011b bych nep\u0159ece\u0148oval dopad komun\u00e1ln\u00edch voleb na parlamentn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148. Po ka\u017ed\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch se objev\u00ed ot\u00e1zka, co z\u00a0nich vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, a\u00a0co to znamen\u00e1 pro celost\u00e1tn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148. Ob\u010das jde opravdu o\u00a0d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 v\u011bci. Pokud t\u0159eba strana utrp\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed debakl, kter\u00fd vypov\u00edd\u00e1 o\u00a0situaci na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00farovni, lze z\u00a0toho vyvozovat ur\u010dit\u00e9 d\u016fsledky. \u010casto to ale samo odezn\u00ed beze zm\u011bn.<\/p>\n

Nemysl\u00edm si, \u017ee by v\u00fdsledek koalice ODS a\u00a0TOP 09\u00a0m\u011bl dopad p\u0159\u00edmo na Martina Kupku. V\u00fdsledek v\u00a0Praze toti\u017e krom\u011b celost\u00e1tn\u00edch n\u00e1lad nepochybn\u011b odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed i\u00a0hodnocen\u00ed dosavadn\u00edho veden\u00ed Prahy s\u00a0prim\u00e1torem Svobodou.<\/p>\n

Martin Kupka m\u00e1 ale del\u0161\u00ed dobu probl\u00e9m sp\u00ed\u0161e na celost\u00e1tn\u00ed \u00farovni. Bezpochyby je to politik, kter\u00fd je dobr\u00fd v\u00a0diskuz\u00edch. M\u00e1 i\u00a0zaj\u00edmav\u00fd profil, se kter\u00fdm m\u016f\u017ee oslovit i\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00e9 voli\u010de ANO. Do karet mu ale nehraje mal\u00e1 viditelnost v\u00a0opozi\u010dn\u00ed roli. Souvis\u00ed to ale i\u00a0s rozpadem koalice Spolu, od kter\u00e9ho ob\u010dan\u0161t\u00ed demokrat\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1vali, \u017ee je dostane do role hlavn\u00ed opozi\u010dn\u00ed strany. To se ale nestalo. Tenhle probl\u00e9m ale p\u0159\u00edmo nesouvis\u00ed s\u00a0v\u00fdsledkem strany v\u00a0Praze.<\/p>\n

S\u00eddli\u0161t\u011b vol\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e levicov\u011b<\/p>\n

Praha b\u00fdvala tradi\u010dn\u00ed ba\u0161tou pravice. ODS ale v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech v\u00a0hlavn\u00edm m\u011bst\u011b oslabuje. \u010c\u00edm to je?<\/p>\n

Nemysl\u00edm si, \u017ee by v\u00a0Praze doch\u00e1zelo k\u00a0oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed pravice. M\u011bsto i\u00a0s periferiemi j\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 naklon\u011bn\u00e9. V\u00a0r\u00e1mci Prahy je ale samoz\u0159ejm\u011b spousta s\u00eddli\u0161\u0165, kter\u00e1 vol\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e levicov\u011b.<\/p>\n

Obecn\u011b jde sp\u00ed\u0161 o\u00a0to, \u017ee strany mnohem obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bji voli\u010de oslovuj\u00ed. Ti pak vyhled\u00e1vaj\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 alternativy k\u00a0tradi\u010dn\u00edm stran\u00e1m. Takov\u00fdmi nov\u00fdmi mo\u017enostmi jsou t\u0159eba hnut\u00ed STAN nebo Praha sob\u011b. M\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt i\u00a0v\u00fdsledkem marketingu Andreje Babi\u0161e, kter\u00fd b\u011bhem sv\u00e9ho p\u016fsoben\u00ed v\u00a0politice vyb\u00edzel k\u00a0volb\u011b nov\u00fdch stran. To nepomohlo jen ANO, ve sv\u00e9 dob\u011b z\u00a0toho t\u011b\u017eili i\u00a0Pir\u00e1ti nebo Starostov\u00e9. Ur\u010dit\u011b je tu ale tak\u00e9 skupina pravicov\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed necht\u011bj\u00ed volit tradi\u010dn\u00ed strany, kterou ODS je.<\/p>\n

Starostov\u00e9 jsou jedinou stranou ze st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed koalice, ji\u017e tvo\u0159\u00ed spole\u010dn\u011b se Spolu a\u00a0Pir\u00e1ty, kter\u00e1 by od posledn\u00edch voleb pos\u00edlila, a\u00a0to v\u00fdrazn\u011b. Jak je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee rostou, zat\u00edmco podpora ostatn\u00edch koali\u010dn\u00edch partner\u016f kles\u00e1?<\/p>\n

Abychom to mohli takhle srovnat, museli bychom se pod\u00edvat na dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed trendy v\u00a0podpo\u0159e stran. Roli m\u016f\u017ee hr\u00e1t i\u00a0to, \u017ee koalici Spolu te\u010f tvo\u0159\u00ed jen ODS a\u00a0TOP 09\u00a0bez lidovc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed kandiduj\u00ed s\u00a0Prahou sob\u011b.<\/p>\n

Pravicov\u00ed voli\u010di jsou v\u00a0Praze velmi n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00ed a\u00a0ve volb\u00e1ch hodnot\u00ed v\u00fdkon rady. Nav\u00edc si dlouhodob\u011b stav m\u011bsta spojuj\u00ed i\u00a0s postavou prim\u00e1tora, kter\u00fd ale nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravomoci. I\u00a0to tedy m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt d\u016fvodem pom\u011brn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fdch preferenc\u00ed. Ot\u00e1zkou je, zdali se do pr\u016fzkumu nepropsala i\u00a0kauza pana Dvo\u0159\u00e1ka na Praze 1, se kterou se ODS n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem vyrovnala (ODS Dvo\u0159\u00e1ka vylou\u010dila pot\u00e9, co nedok\u00e1zal vysv\u011btlit podez\u0159el\u00fd p\u016fvod velk\u00e9ho d\u011bdictv\u00ed, pozn. redakce).<\/p>\n

Za poklesem preferenc\u00ed Spolu m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t pr\u00e1v\u011b i\u00a0odchod lidovc\u016f, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee pomoct Praze sob\u011b. Nad jej\u00ed volbou s\u00a0p\u0159\u00edchodem KDU-\u010cSL m\u016f\u017eou uva\u017eovat pr\u00e1v\u011b i\u00a0voli\u010di p\u016fvodn\u00ed koalice. Nelze ale \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee za cel\u00fdm odlivem voli\u010d\u016f od Spolu stoj\u00ed lidovci, kte\u0159\u00ed by si je do nov\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce p\u0159ivedli.<\/p>\n

Celkov\u00fd v\u00fdsledek pak ale bude z\u00e1viset i\u00a0na strategi\u00edch jednotliv\u00fdch stran. Z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed, jestli na sebe budou \u00fato\u010dit, aby z\u00edskaly hlasy od konkurence, nebo si nebudou zav\u00edrat dve\u0159e k\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci. Vliv m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt i\u00a0volebn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dast, kter\u00e1 by nemusela b\u00fdt z\u00e1sadn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e1 od minul\u00fdch voleb (naposledy\u00a0k\u00a0urn\u00e1m p\u0159i\u0161lo necel\u00fdch 44\u00a0% opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f, pozn. redakce).<\/p>\n

R\u016fst Starost\u016f odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed preference, ve kter\u00fdch je siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ODS. Voli\u010di nav\u00edc u\u017e zapomn\u011bli na kauzu Dozimetr a\u00a0kandid\u00e1tku vede l\u00eddr, kter\u00fd p\u016fsob\u00ed klidn\u011b, odborn\u011b (jedni\u010dkou kandid\u00e1tky je Petr Hlav\u00e1\u010dek, pozn. redakce). P\u0159i rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed si pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nav\u00edc lid\u00e9 nebudou v\u00fdkony spojovat s\u00a0politiky s\u00a0STANu, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e s\u00a0prim\u00e1torem Svobodou nebo Pir\u00e1ty, kter\u00fdm se p\u0159edhazoval stav pra\u017esk\u00e9 dopravy.<\/p>\n

Jak se celost\u00e1tn\u00ed preference vlastn\u011b propisuj\u00ed do komun\u00e1ln\u00edch voleb v\u00a0Praze?<\/p>\n

Celost\u00e1tn\u00ed volby a\u00a0hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed ve velk\u00fdch m\u011bstech jsou jedin\u00e9, do kter\u00fdch se n\u00e1rodn\u00ed politika propisuje. V\u00a0ostatn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch se voli\u010di rozhoduj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e podle jednotliv\u00fdch osobnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 znaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Co by pro v\u00fdsledek okolo 10\u00a0procent znamenal pro Pir\u00e1ty, kte\u0159\u00ed v\u00a0posledn\u00edch komun\u00e1ln\u00edch volb\u00e1ch z\u00edskali t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 18\u00a0procent a\u00a0maj\u00ed ambici m\u00edt prim\u00e1tora? Jak to, \u017ee oslabuj\u00ed?<\/p>\n

Op\u011bt se tu projevuj\u00ed celost\u00e1tn\u00ed pr\u016fzkumy, ve kter\u00fdch Pir\u00e1ti oproti minulosti oslabuj\u00ed. Jejich v\u00fdsledek v\u00a0minul\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch byl nav\u00edc d\u00e1n i\u00a0osobou tehdej\u0161\u00edho prim\u00e1tora Zde\u0148ka H\u0159iba, kter\u00e9ho dok\u00e1zali v\u00a0kampani vyu\u017e\u00edt. V\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bru kampan\u011b se jejich preference m\u016f\u017eou je\u0161t\u011b zm\u011bnit, na pozici prim\u00e1tora to pro n\u011b te\u010f nevypad\u00e1. Pokles v\u00a0podpo\u0159e, se kterou, mysl\u00edm si, i\u00a0po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed, by pro n\u011b ale nem\u011bl z\u00e1sadn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznam, proto\u017ee by se st\u00e1le mohli pod\u00edlet na vl\u00e1d\u011b v\u00a0Praze. Podobn\u011b je na tom i\u00a0Praha sob\u011b, kterou u\u017e voli\u010di znaj\u00ed i\u00a0z m\u011bstsk\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V Praze jsou nav\u00edc i\u00a0voli\u010di, pro kter\u00e9 nen\u00ed tak podstatn\u00e9, ke kter\u00e9 ze stran, jako jsou Pir\u00e1ti, Starostov\u00e9, Spolu nebo Praha sob\u011b, se p\u0159iklon\u00ed. V\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bru kampan\u011b bude z\u00e1le\u017eet, ke kter\u00e9 stran\u011b se tento segment p\u0159esune.<\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1te, \u017ee se preference je\u0161t\u011b b\u011bhem posledn\u00edho m\u011bs\u00edce do voleb prom\u011bn\u00ed a\u00a0v\u00fdsledky budou nakonec p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed?<\/p>\n

To nechci odhadovat. Bude z\u00e1le\u017eet, jak dopadnou p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed debaty, kter\u00e9 by v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se n\u011bkter\u00e9 ze stran povedou, mohly p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit voli\u010de k\u00a0p\u0159esunu mezi podobn\u011b sm\u00fd\u0161lej\u00edc\u00edmi stranami. Vliv by mohly m\u00edt i\u00a0kauzy, kter\u00e9 se m\u016f\u017eou objevit. D\u00e1 se ale \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee v\u00fdzkum, kter\u00fd vy\u0161el m\u011bs\u00edc p\u0159ed volbami, nebude odpov\u00eddat re\u00e1ln\u00fdm kone\u010dn\u00fdm v\u00fdsledk\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Rozhovor zpracoval Martin Kvasnica.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u010cesko za m\u011bs\u00edc \u010dekaj\u00ed komun\u00e1ln\u00ed volby, ve kter\u00fdch se rozhodne, kdo dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i roky povede radnice men\u0161\u00edch m\u011bst,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":207294,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[10],"tags":[266,1980,17,21,561,6053,16,2973,99,2487,3259,18,19,22,20],"class_list":["post-207293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-zpravy","tag-andrej-babis","tag-ceska-piratska-strana-pirati","tag-headlines","tag-hlavni-udalosti","tag-hnuti-ano","tag-komunalni-volby","tag-news","tag-obcanska-demokraticka-strana-ods","tag-praha","tag-praha-sobe","tag-starostove-a-nezavisli-stan","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-udalosti-dne","tag-zpravy"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117236537227187951","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/207293","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=207293"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/207293\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/207294"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=207293"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=207293"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=207293"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}