{"id":208321,"date":"2026-09-09T14:25:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T14:25:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/208321\/"},"modified":"2026-09-09T14:25:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T14:25:20","slug":"modely-naznacuji-vanoce-na-blate-lepsi-zpravu-si-evropa-nemohla-prat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/208321\/","title":{"rendered":"Modely nazna\u010duj\u00ed V\u00e1noce na bl\u00e1t\u011b. Lep\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1vu si Evropa nemohla p\u0159\u00e1t"},"content":{"rendered":"

Evropsk\u00fdm trh\u016fm se zemn\u00edm plynem by v\u00a0nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed topn\u00e9 sez\u00f3n\u011b mohlo podat pomocnou ruku po\u010das\u00ed. P\u0159edpov\u011bdi meteorolog\u016f se toti\u017e st\u00e1le v\u00edce shoduj\u00ed v\u00a0tom, \u017ee neobvykle m\u00edrn\u00fd podzim a\u00a0zima v\u00fdrazn\u011b utlum\u00ed popt\u00e1vku po vyt\u00e1p\u011bn\u00ed. Napsala to agentura Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Pokud se tyto progn\u00f3zy napln\u00ed, z\u00edsk\u00e1 kontinent kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed pol\u0161t\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd pom\u016f\u017ee kompenzovat v\u00fdpadky dod\u00e1vek zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 v\u00e1lkou mezi USA a\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem. Zastaven\u00ed v\u00fdvozu zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu (LNG) z\u00a0Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu toti\u017e zp\u016fsobilo, \u017ee evropsk\u00e9 z\u00e1sobn\u00edky jsou napln\u011bny pouze ze 67\u00a0procent, zat\u00edmco b\u011b\u017en\u00fd sez\u00f3nn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br dosahuje 83\u00a0procent.<\/p>\n

\u201eV\u00a0\u010cesku si tak\u00e9 nevedeme nejl\u00e9pe, proto\u017ee na\u0161e z\u00e1sobn\u00edky jsou napln\u011bny ze 70\u00a0procent. V\u00a0sousedn\u00edm N\u011bmecku jsou v\u0161ak v\u00a0je\u0161t\u011b sv\u00edzeln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed situaci s\u00a053procentn\u00ed napln\u011bnost\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f,\u201c \u0159ekl pro Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy Byznys<\/a> \u0159editel spole\u010dnosti Tedom Energie Jakub Odlo\u017eil\u00edk.<\/p>\n

Obchodn\u00edci se proto p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem topn\u00e9 sez\u00f3ny sna\u017e\u00ed tyto z\u00e1soby narychlo doplnit, co\u017e ale zase vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed tlak na r\u016fst cen. Referen\u010dn\u00ed cena plynu pro evropsk\u00fd trh od konce \u010dervna vysko\u010dila o\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e 75\u00a0procent.<\/p>\n

P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f spole\u010dnosti Commodity Weather Group pat\u0159\u00ed k\u00a0t\u011bm nejjednozna\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a\u00a0jej\u00ed meteorologov\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee by Evropa mohla za\u017e\u00edt jeden z\u00a0nejteplej\u0161\u00edch podzim\u016f a\u00a0zim v\u00a0historii m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd dlouhodob\u00fd v\u00fdhled pro obdob\u00ed od prosince do \u00fanora se \u0159ad\u00ed k\u00a0t\u011bm v\u016fbec nejm\u00edrn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm, jak\u00e9 kontinent pamatuje, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e rizika se p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed k\u00a0je\u0161t\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vce po vyt\u00e1p\u011bn\u00ed, uvedl meteorolog William Henneberg.<\/p>\n

Nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b tepl\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d Evropou po v\u011bt\u0161inu podzimu a\u00a0zimy p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 tak\u00e9 AccuWeather. Spole\u010dnost Atmospheric G2\u00a0pak po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee se teploty od pozdn\u00edho podzimu do za\u010d\u00e1tku zimy budou pohybovat p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1\u00a0a\u017e 2\u00a0\u00b0C nad dlouhodob\u00fdm norm\u00e1lem. A\u00a0logicky plat\u00ed, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm je venku tepleji t\u00edm m\u00e9n\u011b se mus\u00ed v\u00a0bytech a\u00a0domech p\u0159it\u00e1p\u011bt.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Meteorolog Matthew Dross ze spole\u010dnosti Vaisala o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 m\u00edrn\u00fd\u00a0\u0159\u00edjen a\u00a0listopad a\u00a0dod\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee sez\u00f3nn\u00ed modely pro celou zimu moment\u00e1ln\u011b ukazuj\u00ed \u201evelmi tepl\u00e9\u201c hodnoty. Spole\u010dnost MetDesk pak ve \u010dtvrt\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed vid\u00ed v\u00a0severn\u00ed a\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b prostor pro n\u011bkolik v\u00fdrazn\u011b tepl\u00fdch t\u00fddn\u016f.<\/p>\n

Takov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj by utlumil popt\u00e1vku a\u00a0zpomalil \u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed ze z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by uchoval z\u00e1soby plynu na leden a\u00a0\u00fanor, tedy na m\u011bs\u00edce, kdy n\u011bkolik meteorologick\u00fdch slu\u017eeb naopak o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed riziko p\u0159\u00edchodu mraz\u016f.<\/p>\n

Men\u0161\u00ed shoda v\u0161ak panuje v\u00a0tom, do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry lze tyto sign\u00e1ly oteplen\u00ed p\u0159ipsat klimatick\u00e9mu jevu El Ni\u00f1o, kter\u00fd by mohl dos\u00e1hnout jedn\u00e9 z\u00a0nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch intenzit v\u00a0historii m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Co je El Ni\u00f1o<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o je kladn\u00e1 f\u00e1ze fenom\u00e9nu El Ni\u00f1o ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace, zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho pod zkratkou ENSO. <\/p>\n

\u201eSlovo oscilace je zde d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, proto\u017ee krom\u011b jej\u00ed kladn\u00e9 f\u00e1ze nast\u00e1v\u00e1 i\u00a0opa\u010dn\u00e1 f\u00e1ze La Ni\u00f1a. B\u011bhem t\u00e9to oscilace mezi f\u00e1zemi se mimo jin\u00e9 m\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed rozlo\u017een\u00ed tlakov\u00fdch \u00fatvar\u016f na velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti sv\u011bta. Obecn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, tlakov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161e jsou charakteristick\u00e9 sp\u00ed\u0161e su\u0161\u0161\u00edm a\u00a0jasn\u00fdm po\u010das\u00edm, zat\u00edmco tlakov\u00e9 n\u00ed\u017ee naopak de\u0161tiv\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a\u00a0obla\u010dn\u00fdm. V\u00a0oblasti jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie b\u011bhem f\u00e1ze El Ni\u00f1o doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0naru\u0161en\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edho proud\u011bn\u00ed a\u00a0k n\u00e1r\u016fstu tlaku vzduchu,\u201c vysv\u011btluje Ond\u0159ej Lhotka z\u00a0\u00dastavu fyziky atmosf\u00e9ry.<\/p>\n

\u201eKlimatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna je sice spjata s\u00a0teplej\u0161\u00edm povrchem oce\u00e1n\u016f, ale nen\u00ed prok\u00e1z\u00e1no, \u017ee by ovliv\u0148ovala na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdskytu jednotliv\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00ed ENSO. Pokud ale El Ni\u00f1o nast\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00a0teplej\u0161\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b, tak se extr\u00e9my po\u010das\u00ed mohou prohlubovat,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 odborn\u00edk.<\/p>\n

Henneberg a\u00a0jeho kolega z\u00a0Commodity Weather Group Cade Groman pova\u017euj\u00ed siln\u00fd projev tohoto jevu spolu s\u00a0vysok\u00fdmi teplotami Atlantiku a\u00a0sv\u011btov\u00fdch oce\u00e1n\u016f za hlavn\u00ed d\u016fvod, pro\u010d se p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed k\u00a0tepl\u00e9 variant\u011b. Tak\u00e9 Jason Nicholls, hlavn\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed meteorolog spole\u010dnosti AccuWeather, vn\u00edm\u00e1 El Ni\u00f1o jako v\u00fdznamn\u00fd faktor.<\/p>\n

Naopak meteorolo\u017eka Amy Hodgsonov\u00e1 ze spole\u010dnosti MetDesk p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 na za\u010d\u00e1tku zimy slab\u0161\u00ed vliv tohoto jevu, i\u00a0kdy\u017e anal\u00fdza jej\u00ed firmy rovn\u011b\u017e nazna\u010duje m\u00edrn\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b severn\u00ed a\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropy. Jej\u00ed anal\u00fdza z\u00e1rove\u0148 poukazuje na zv\u00fd\u0161enou pravd\u011bpodobnost n\u00e1hl\u00e9ho stratosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho oteplen\u00ed v\u00a0pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1zi zimy, co\u017e by v\u00a0Evrop\u011b mohlo zv\u00fd\u0161it riziko vp\u00e1d\u016f studen\u00e9ho vzduchu.<\/p>\n

\u201eDomn\u00edv\u00e1me se, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed riziko mraz\u016f bude pro Evropu p\u0159edstavovat a\u017e samotn\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br zimy,\u201c uvedla Hodgsonov\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017enost mraziv\u00fdch vln v\u00a0polovin\u011b nebo na sklonku zimy p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed i\u00a0spole\u010dnost AccuWeather, podle n\u00ed by v\u0161ak p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e1 epizoda m\u011bla m\u00edt jen kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 trv\u00e1n\u00ed. Commodity Weather Group pak vid\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed riziko ochlazen\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b pozd\u011bji, a\u017e na p\u0159elomu b\u0159ezna a\u00a0dubna.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Evropsk\u00fdm trh\u016fm se zemn\u00edm plynem by v\u00a0nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed topn\u00e9 sez\u00f3n\u011b mohlo podat pomocnou ruku po\u010das\u00ed. P\u0159edpov\u011bdi meteorolog\u016f se toti\u017e…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":208322,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[9267,109,108,106,6146,255,20789,2156,1314,6801],"class_list":["post-208321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-evropa","tag-el-nino","tag-europa","tag-europe","tag-evropa","tag-more","tag-pocasi","tag-zasobniky-plynu","tag-zemni-plyn","tag-zima","tag-zkapalneny-zemni-plyn-lng"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117241546460856535","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208321","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=208321"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208321\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/208322"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=208321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=208321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=208321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}