![](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/akcie.jpeg\")
Foto: Topdown Charts<\/p>\nAmerick\u00e9 akcie vstupuj\u00ed do obdob\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je pro burzu historicky nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9. Index S&P 500\u00a0po siln\u00e9m letn\u00edm vzep\u011bt\u00ed trochu ztr\u00e1c\u00ed dech a\u00a0zhor\u0161ila se i\u00a0takzvan\u00e1 \u0161\u00ed\u0159e trhu (pod\u00edl jednotliv\u00fdch akci\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zdra\u017euj\u00ed). Ziskov\u00e9 mar\u017ee americk\u00fdch firem jsou d\u00edky technologick\u00e9mu odv\u011btv\u00ed na rekordn\u00edch \u00farovn\u00edch a\u00a0tr\u017en\u00ed skeptici varuj\u00ed, \u017ee u\u017e nen\u00ed prostor pro jejich dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed expanzi. Na stejn\u00e1 data se d\u00e1 p\u0159itom nahl\u00ed\u017eet jak optimisticky (burzi\u00e1ni by \u0159ekli konstruktivn\u011b), tak pesimisticky.<\/p>\n
P\u0159echodn\u00e1 slabost, nebo za\u010d\u00e1tek korekce?<\/p>\n
Z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed je historicky nejslab\u0161\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edcem pro americk\u00e9 akcie. Za posledn\u00edch \u0161edes\u00e1t let b\u011bhem n\u011bj index S&P 500\u00a0v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru spadl o\u00a00,6\u00a0procenta. Rozpa\u010dit\u00fd v\u00fdvoj v\u00a0uplynul\u00fdch dvou t\u00fddnech by se tak dal jednodu\u0161e vysv\u011btlit sez\u00f3nnost\u00ed. Optimist\u00e9 ale rychle nam\u00edtnou, \u017ee kdy\u017e index vstupoval do z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v\u00a0r\u00e1mci r\u016fstov\u00e9ho trendu a\u00a0v letech takzvan\u00fdch midterm kongresov\u00fdch voleb v\u00a0USA, tedy jako letos, jeho z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00fd v\u00fdsledek r\u00e1zem v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru vysko\u010dil na +0,9\u00a0procenta.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 (1964\u20132025)pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 zhodnocen\u00ed% v ziskunejlep\u0161\u00ednejhor\u0161\u00edleden1,1 %60 %13 %-9 %\u00fanor0,0 %53 %7 %-11 %b\u0159ezen0,9 %65 %10 %-13 %duben1,5 %71 %13 %-9 %kv\u011bten0,4 %61 %9 %- 8 %\u010derven0,3 %60 %7 %-9 %\u010dervenec0,9 %55 %9 %-8 %srpen0,1 %56 %12 %-15 %z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed-0,6 %47 %9 %-12 %\u0159\u00edjen1,0 %60 %16 %-22 %listopad1,6 %69 %11 %-11 %prosinec1,2 %69 %11 %-9 %zdroj: Topdown Charts<\/p>\n
V uplynul\u00e9 dek\u00e1d\u011b bylo z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inou pro akcie naopak \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9. Sez\u00f3nnost tedy jasnou odpov\u011b\u010f nenab\u00edz\u00ed. Ostatn\u011b obecn\u011b jde pouze o\u00a0historick\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry, kter\u00e9 sice mohou m\u00edt ur\u010dit\u00e9 fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fvody, ale v\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch letech maj\u00ed navrch specifick\u00e9 faktory.<\/p>\n
Investo\u0159i, kte\u0159\u00ed v\u011b\u0159\u00ed v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst cen akci\u00ed, tedy takzvan\u00ed b\u00fdci, nav\u00edc mohou uk\u00e1zat na \u00fapln\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br roku, kdy po sez\u00f3nn\u011b slab\u0161\u00edm z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed a\u00a0nic moc \u0159\u00edjnu tradi\u010dn\u011b trh ke konci roku znovu s\u00edl\u00ed, zat\u00edmco volatilita akci\u00ed (index VIX) kles\u00e1. Tady ale pesimist\u00e9 neboli medv\u011bdi mohou pou\u017e\u00edt ten sam\u00fd argument o\u00a0specifick\u00fdch faktorech dan\u00e9ho roku. A\u00a0stejn\u00e9 grafy a\u00a0tabulky pro n\u011b nav\u00edc mohou b\u00fdt oporou pro o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed hlub\u0161\u00ed tr\u017en\u00ed korekce.<\/p>\n
Foto: Topdown Charts<\/p>\n
Wall Street vstupuje do sez\u00f3nn\u011b nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Rekordn\u00ed mar\u017ee jako dvojse\u010dn\u00e1 zbra\u0148<\/p>\n
Index S&P 500\u00a0v\u00a0srpnu dok\u00e1zal posunout sv\u016fj kurzov\u00fd rekord a\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u011b se dr\u017e\u00ed asi procento pod maximem. Do p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu toti\u017e mus\u00edme zahrnout dal\u0161\u00ed rekord, a\u00a0to na \u00farovni ziskov\u00fdch mar\u017e\u00ed americk\u00fdch firem. Ve\u0159ejn\u011b obchodovan\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti vyd\u011bl\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejv\u00edc v\u00a0historii a\u00a0analytici v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu t\u0159et\u00edho \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed d\u00e1le zlep\u0161uj\u00ed sv\u00e9 odhady zisk\u016f firem z\u00a0hlavn\u00edho indexu na Wall Street.<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/zisky.png\")
Foto: Bloomberg<\/p>\n
\u010cist\u00e9 ziskov\u00e9 mar\u017ee firem v\u00a0USA p\u0159ekonaly vrchol z\u00a0roku 2021.<\/p>\n
Rekordn\u00ed mar\u017ee znamenaj\u00ed vysokou ziskovost a\u00a0pro akcie jsou jasn\u011b podp\u016frn\u00fdm faktorem. \u201eRizikem je pouze to, \u017ee tyto mar\u017ee nemohou r\u016fst v\u011b\u010dn\u011b. Jde o\u00a0siln\u011b cyklick\u00fd ukazatel. A\u00a0ve chv\u00edli, kdy za\u010dnou klesat, maj\u00ed ze sou\u010dasn\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00ed celkem logicky rekordn\u00ed prostor pro normalizaci,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Callum Thomas, analytik ze spole\u010dnosti Topdown Charts.<\/p>\n
To je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 m\u00edt na pam\u011bti zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0r\u00e1mci technologick\u00e9ho sektoru. \u201eMar\u017ee technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed vyst\u0159elily prudce nahoru a\u00a0jsou motorem r\u016fstu americk\u00e9ho trhu v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech,\u201c p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 Thomas. Optimista se raduje, akciov\u00fd medv\u011bd tu\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1l pro korekci. A\u00a0m\u00e1 na pam\u011bti sou\u010dasn\u00e1 rizika v\u00a0\u010dele se st\u00e1le zv\u00fd\u0161enou inflac\u00ed, drahou ropou, vysok\u00fdmi v\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f a\u00a0s t\u00edm v\u0161\u00edm souvisej\u00edc\u00ed mo\u017enost, \u017ee americk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka bude zp\u0159\u00eds\u0148ovat m\u011bnovou politiku.<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/zisky.jpeg\")
Foto: Topdown Charts<\/p>\n
Mar\u017ee v\u00a0odv\u011btv\u00ed technologi\u00ed vyst\u0159elily nahoru, rostou ale i\u00a0ve zbytku ekonomiky.<\/p>\n
Co \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 samotn\u00fd trh?<\/p>\n
Mezi sez\u00f3nnost\u00ed a\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u00edmi fundamenty je je\u0161t\u011b jedna vrstva, ta nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. To je samotn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj cen, tedy to, jak trh nakonec zohled\u0148uje v\u0161echny vstupn\u00ed faktory. Pro pochopen\u00ed n\u00e1lady na trhu p\u0159itom nen\u00ed zrovna u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9 kontrolovat grafy desetkr\u00e1t za den.<\/p>\n
Denn\u00ed graf, kde ka\u017ed\u00fd den reprezentuje pr\u00e1v\u011b jedna \u201esv\u00ed\u010dka\u201c, zachyt\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00fd v\u00fdkyv\u00a0\u2013 kde trh otev\u00edral a\u00a0zav\u00edral a\u00a0kam nejv\u00fd\u0161e a\u00a0nejn\u00ed\u017ee se dostal. Hod\u00ed se to v\u011bd\u011bt, m\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt ale po\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e1 \u201ehoupa\u010dka\u201c.<\/p>\n
T\u00fddenn\u00ed graf u\u017e velkou \u010d\u00e1st kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho \u0161umu odfiltruje a\u00a0uk\u00e1\u017ee, kde po cel\u00e9m t\u00fddnu skon\u010dil pomysln\u00fd souboj kupc\u016f a\u00a0prodejc\u016f. \u201eT\u00fddenn\u00ed graf je podle m\u011b ide\u00e1ln\u00edm kompromisem mezi detailn\u00ed ka\u017edodenn\u00ed, nebo dokonce hodinovou \u010di minutovou perspektivou kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch obchodn\u00edk\u016f a\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e1 u\u017e moc pomal\u00fdm m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm grafem,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 burzovn\u00ed trader J. C. Parets ze spole\u010dnosti TrendLabs.<\/p>\n
Na t\u00fddenn\u00edm grafu indexu S&P 500\u00a0vid\u00edme v\u00a0posledn\u00edch t\u0159ech t\u00fddnech tendenci ke konsolidaci zisk\u016f z\u00a0poloviny srpna. \u201eTrh m\u00edrn\u011b kles\u00e1 z\u00a0rekord\u016f. St\u00e1le je nad hladinou podpory okolo 7\u00a0600\u00a0bod\u016f. Letos u\u017e p\u0159itom dvakr\u00e1t obdobn\u011b klesal z\u00a0maxima\u00a0\u2013 jednou to vy\u00fastilo v\u00a0prudk\u00fd jarn\u00ed propad cen akci\u00ed, v\u00a0l\u00e9t\u011b trh naopak dok\u00e1zal prorazit nad linii konsolidace a\u00a0vyhoupl se na nov\u00e1 maxima,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 nez\u00e1visl\u00fd technick\u00fd analytik Frank Cappelleri.<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/1788969310_128_akcie.png\")
Foto: StockCharts, Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n
Index S&P 500\u00a0letos pot\u0159et\u00ed konsoliduje po p\u0159edchoz\u00edm r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n
Stejn\u00e1 data, jin\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy<\/p>\n
B\u00fd\u010d\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je st\u00e1le velice dob\u0159e p\u0159edstaviteln\u00fd. Z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e1 slabost m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jen b\u011b\u017enou sez\u00f3nn\u00ed pauzou, firmy obchodovan\u00e9 na burze d\u00e1le vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed vysok\u00e9 zisky a\u00a0historicky p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br roku po volb\u00e1ch do Kongresu je tu u\u017e za dva m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/p>\n
Medv\u011bdi naopak vid\u00ed trh, kter\u00fd je po siln\u00e9m r\u016fstu citliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na jak\u00e1koli zklam\u00e1n\u00ed. Vysok\u00e9 mar\u017ee se mohou za\u010d\u00edt normalizovat, technologick\u00fd sektor je v\u00a0tomto sm\u011bru mo\u017en\u00e1 ji\u017e \u201ep\u0159ep\u00e1len\u00fd\u201c.<\/p>\n
A tak m\u016f\u017ee sta\u010dit do rekordn\u00edch cen akci\u00ed trochu str\u010dit, aby se spustila hlub\u0161\u00ed korekce. Typicky by to m\u011blo b\u00fdt n\u011bco, s\u00a0\u010d\u00edm trh aktu\u00e1ln\u011b tolik nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1. Nap\u0159\u00edklad riziko vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch sazeb centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky nen\u00ed pro trh ni\u010d\u00edm nezn\u00e1m\u00fdm, sp\u00ed\u0161e to proto m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt nap\u0159\u00edklad n\u011bjak\u00fd zvrat v\u00a0geopolitick\u00e9m v\u00fdvoji, ne\u010dekan\u011b nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd \u00fadaj a\u00a0podobn\u011b.<\/p>\n
S jistotou to nev\u00ed nikdo. Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed ale ur\u010dit\u011b nebudou jeden nebo dva z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9 dny ani cel\u00fd t\u00fdden. Podstatn\u00e9 bude, zda a\u00a0pro\u010d se p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e1 sez\u00f3nn\u00ed slabost prop\u00ed\u0161e do del\u0161\u00edho obdob\u00ed. B\u00fdci a\u00a0medv\u011bdi se to sna\u017e\u00ed odhadnout a\u00a0d\u00edvaj\u00ed se u\u00a0toho na stejn\u00e9 grafy. Vid\u00ed v\u00a0nich ale jin\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Americk\u00e9 akcie vstupuj\u00ed do obdob\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je pro burzu historicky nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9. Index S&P 500\u00a0po siln\u00e9m letn\u00edm vzep\u011bt\u00ed trochu…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":208420,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[412,67,68,1413,46958,952,6459],"class_list":["post-208419","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-akcie","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-financni-trhy","tag-investicni-analyzy","tag-sp-500","tag-wall-street"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117241900711221359","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208419","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=208419"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208419\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/208420"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=208419"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=208419"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=208419"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}