{"id":24335,"date":"2026-03-14T17:26:11","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T17:26:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/24335\/"},"modified":"2026-03-14T17:26:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T17:26:11","slug":"postup-na-mape-neznamena-vyhru-valka-muze-prerust-v-sebevrazdu-spolecnosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/24335\/","title":{"rendered":"Postup na map\u011b neznamen\u00e1 v\u00fdhru. V\u00e1lka m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159er\u016fst v \u201esebevra\u017edu spole\u010dnosti\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"

V\u00e1lky se obvykle hodnot\u00ed podle map a\u00a0\u010d\u00edsel – kdo obsadil jak\u00fd kus zem\u011b, kam se posunula fronta, kdo p\u0159ebral iniciativu, kolik je padl\u00fdch. D\u011bjiny ale ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek \u010dasto nen\u00ed patrn\u00fd na boji\u0161ti, ale uvnit\u0159 v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/p>\n

Podle historika a\u00a0vojensk\u00e9ho analytika Tom\u00e1\u0161e \u0158epy m\u016f\u017ee Rusko na Ukrajin\u011b postupovat je\u0161t\u011b dlouho, ale v\u00e1lku p\u0159esto prohr\u00e1vat – ne vojensky, ale jako velmoc. <\/p>\n

\u010cty\u0159i v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 roky neni\u010d\u00ed jen arm\u00e1dy a\u00a0ekonomiku, ale i\u00a0elity a\u00a0budouc\u00ed stabilitu re\u017eimu. \u201e\u00dapadek neznamen\u00e1 kolaps z\u00edtra r\u00e1no,\u201c upozor\u0148uje.<\/p>\n

V jednom z\u00a0na\u0161ich d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch rozhovor\u016f<\/a> jste \u0159ekl, \u017ee Rusko sice m\u016f\u017ee zab\u00edrat \u00fazem\u00ed, ale strategicky t\u00edm oslabuje samo sebe. Plat\u00ed to st\u00e1le, nebo se re\u017eim uk\u00e1zal jako odoln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e historick\u00e1 zku\u0161enost nazna\u010dovala?<\/p>\n

Slovo strategicky m\u016f\u017eeme klidn\u011b zam\u011bnit za dlouhodob\u011b, ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed je mo\u017en\u00e1 a\u017e nedostate\u010dn\u00e9 slovo. Pokud nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b sv\u011bta s\u00a0ohromn\u00fdmi zdroji, velkou soci\u00e1ln\u00ed nerovnost\u00ed a\u00a0demografick\u00fdm propadem vede \u00fato\u010dnou v\u00e1lku za takov\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed ji\u017e \u010dty\u0159i roky, pak to nevyhnuteln\u011b sm\u011b\u0159uje k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edm pot\u00ed\u017e\u00edm. P\u0159\u00edklady z\u00a0rusk\u00e9 historie by m\u011bly b\u00fdt dostate\u010dn\u00fdm varov\u00e1n\u00edm. Nevyda\u0159en\u00e1 v\u00e1lka p\u0159edznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fapadek.<\/p>\n

Nezd\u00e1 se, \u017ee by se v\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed dob\u011b m\u011blo n\u011bco zm\u011bnit. Re\u017eim se uk\u00e1zal odoln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00a0tom smyslu, \u017ee dok\u00e1zal p\u0159enastavit ekonomiku na v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd re\u017eim, utlumit odpor obyvatel a\u00a0dopl\u0148ovat arm\u00e1du kombinac\u00ed kontrakt\u016f, finan\u010dn\u00edch pob\u00eddek a\u00a0n\u00e1tlaku. Sou\u010dasn\u011b ale roste cena, kterou za tento p\u0159\u00edstup cel\u00e1 zem\u011b plat\u00ed, a\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u00fazemn\u00ed zisk nem\u016f\u017ee n\u011bco takov\u00e9ho kompenzovat.<\/p>\n

Jak\u00fd zp\u016fsob \u00fapadku m\u00e1te na mysli?<\/p>\n

\u00dapadek neznamen\u00e1 kolaps z\u00edtra r\u00e1no. O\u00a0Rusku st\u00e1le plat\u00ed Bismarck\u016fv v\u00fdrok, \u017ee nikdy nen\u00ed tak siln\u00e9, jak se tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, ale ani tak slab\u00e9, jak bychom si p\u0159\u00e1li. I\u00a0v tom je jist\u00e1 nads\u00e1zka. Nev\u00edm, jak by \u017eelezn\u00fd kancl\u00e9\u0159 hodnotil Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed kolapsem, ale jsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00fd, \u017ee se t\u00edmto sm\u011brem Rusko pomalu, ale jist\u011b p\u0159ibli\u017euje.<\/p>\n

Jak poznat rozd\u00edl mezi skute\u010dn\u00fdm \u00fapadkem a\u00a0schopnost\u00ed autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu dlouhodob\u011b fungovat v\u00a0chudob\u011b a\u00a0izolaci?<\/p>\n

Rozd\u00edl se pozn\u00e1 podle toho, zda re\u017eim dok\u00e1\u017ee reprodukovat elity a\u00a0kompetence, udr\u017eet technologickou a\u00a0pr\u016fmyslovou suverenitu, financovat bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed apar\u00e1t bez kanibalizace budoucnosti a\u00a0dr\u017eet \u201esmlouvu\u201c se spole\u010dnost\u00ed bez st\u00e1le vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f na represi.<\/p>\n

Rusko m\u016f\u017ee dlouho fungovat chud\u0161\u00ed, je to v\u00a0mnoha ohledech sob\u011bsta\u010dn\u00fd st\u00e1t, a\u00a0to nepom\u011brn\u011b v\u00edc, ne\u017e byl t\u0159eba kdysi Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz, ale pokud je r\u016fst ta\u017een hlavn\u011b vojenskou v\u00fdrobou, tak se ekonomika p\u0159eh\u0159\u00edv\u00e1, roste inflace, \u00faroky jsou vysoko a\u00a0civiln\u00ed sektor ch\u0159adne. Jde o\u00a0fat\u00e1ln\u00ed stagnaci. To je typick\u00e1 trajektorie st\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00e9 p\u0159e\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed, ale sl\u00e1bnou v\u00a0mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed sout\u011b\u017ei.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

V minulosti jste upozor\u0148oval i\u00a0na risk, kter\u00fd pro autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 re\u017eimy p\u0159edstavuje mobilizace. Vid\u00edme v\u00a0Rusku skute\u010dn\u00e9 spole\u010densk\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed, nebo se Kremlu poda\u0159ilo tento probl\u00e9m obej\u00edt?<\/p>\n

Kreml to do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry \u201eobe\u0161el\u201c t\u00edm, \u017ee se vyh\u00fdb\u00e1 plo\u0161n\u00e9 mobilizaci a\u00a0m\u00edsto toho pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 tichou mobilizaci. To znamen\u00e1 masivn\u00ed n\u00e1bor na kontrakty, vysok\u00e9 odm\u011bny, kter\u00e9 ale nejsou v\u017edy vypl\u00e1ceny, tlak p\u0159es regiony, verbov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00a0chud\u0161\u00edch oblast\u00ed, pr\u00e1ci s\u00a0v\u011bzni a \u201eneviditeln\u00fd\u201c administrativn\u00ed n\u00e1tlak. To sni\u017euje riziko okam\u017eit\u00e9ho v\u00fdbuchu ve velk\u00fdch m\u011bstech.<\/p>\n

Nap\u011bt\u00ed existuje, ale je rozpt\u00fdlen\u00e9 – v\u00a0rodin\u00e1ch padl\u00fdch, v\u00a0nejv\u00edce zasa\u017een\u00fdch regionech, na pracovn\u00edm trhu kv\u016fli nedostatku lid\u00ed a\u00a0v rostouc\u00ed \u00fanav\u011b, kter\u00e1 se re\u017eimu da\u0159\u00ed dr\u017eet pod prahem kolektivn\u00ed akce repres\u00ed a\u00a0propagandou. Jin\u00fdmi slovy: historick\u00fd probl\u00e9m autorit\u00e1\u0159\u016f nezmizel, jen se posunul do \u201e\u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3ny\u201c ka\u017edodennosti.<\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9my, se kter\u00fdmi Rusko v\u00e1lku za\u010dalo, tedy nezmiz\u00ed, ale d\u00e1le se prohloub\u00ed. \u010casov\u00fd r\u00e1mec v\u0161ak nelze spolehliv\u011b odhadnout. A\u00a0to i\u00a0proto, jak\u00e1 je mentalita zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti populace. <\/p>\n

Ten, kdo p\u0159e\u010dn\u00edval nebo se protivil, byl bu\u010f zlikvidov\u00e1n, nebo musel odej\u00edt do zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Nebu\u010fme tedy p\u0159ekvapeni, kdy\u017e to bez n\u011bjak\u00fdch v\u00fdrazn\u00fdch protest\u016f potrv\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b dlouho. I\u00a0to je rusk\u00e1 tradice vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0historie.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ech\u00e1z\u00ed v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b do dlouhodob\u00e9ho opot\u0159ebov\u00e1vac\u00edho konfliktu? <\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b. Ji\u017e po sta\u017een\u00ed Rus\u016f od Kyjeva v\u00a0dubnu 2022, kter\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u011b ovlivnila por\u00e1\u017eka elitn\u00edch rusk\u00fdch sil na leti\u0161ti Hostomel, bylo jasn\u00e9, \u017ee n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm opot\u0159ebov\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lka. V\u00e1lka je dnes prim\u00e1rn\u011b opot\u0159ebov\u00e1n\u00ed lid\u00ed, munice, ekonomiky i\u00a0v\u016fle d\u00e1l bojovat.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0\u010dem je dne\u0161n\u00ed f\u00e1ze jin\u00e1 ne\u017e nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0roce 2023?<\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd posun je v\u00a0tom, \u017ee se d\u00e1le v\u00fdrazn\u011b zvedla role hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a\u00a0inovac\u00ed. Kdo stabiln\u011bji vyr\u00e1b\u00ed, nakupuje \u010di adaptuje technologie a\u00a0techniku, ten si udr\u017euje iniciativu.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00e1 zm\u011bna je pak z\u00e1sadn\u011b technologick\u00e1 – masov\u00e9 nasazen\u00ed levn\u00fdch dron\u016f, elektronick\u00fd boj, rozpt\u00fdlen\u00e9 boji\u0161t\u011b ji\u017e bez souvisl\u00e9 linie dotyku a\u00a0\u201ezab\u00edjen\u00ed na d\u00e1lku\u201c zvy\u0161uj\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty a\u00a0d\u011blaj\u00ed pr\u016flomy st\u00e1le t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed. <\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00ed rozd\u00edl je pak i\u00a0politick\u00fd – st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji se kv\u016fli \u00fanav\u011b z\u00a0v\u00e1lky bojuje i\u00a0o tempo a\u00a0podm\u00ednky k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edmu jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed rozhovory p\u0159itom ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee se opot\u0159ebov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159el\u00e9v\u00e1 i\u00a0do diplomacie, tedy bez ochoty k\u00a0z\u00e1sadn\u00edmu kompromisu.<\/p>\n

Odhady ztr\u00e1t na obou stran\u00e1ch se dramaticky li\u0161\u00ed podle zdroj\u016f. Pokud by se potvrdilo, \u017ee Rusko m\u00e1 v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed absolutn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty, znamen\u00e1 to automaticky, \u017ee je na tom strategicky h\u016f\u0159? Existuj\u00ed v\u00a0d\u011bjin\u00e1ch v\u00e1lky, kdy st\u00e1t s\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi ztr\u00e1tami nakonec usp\u011bl? <\/p>\n

Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty samy o\u00a0sob\u011b automaticky neznamenaj\u00ed prohru – v\u00a0d\u011bjin\u00e1ch existuje mnoho p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f, kdy st\u00e1t, mocensk\u00fd \u00fatvar \u010di n\u011bjak\u00e9 spole\u010denstv\u00ed s\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi ztr\u00e1tami nakonec usp\u011bl. Typicky kdy\u017e m\u011bl v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed demografickou \u010di ekonomickou kapacitu nebo politickou soudr\u017enost. <\/p>\n

Foto: \u0160imon, Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

Odhad rusk\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t na Ukrajin\u011b v\u00a0letech 2022\u00a0a\u017e 2025\u00a0podle anal\u00fdzy Centra pro strategick\u00e1 a\u00a0mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed studia (CSIS).<\/p>\n

Sever proti Jihu, Francie v\u00a0souboji s\u00a0c\u00edsa\u0159sk\u00fdm N\u011bmeckem za prvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz ve druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, \u010c\u00edna ve v\u00e1lce s\u00a0Japonskem, Severn\u00ed Vietnam v\u00a0konfliktu s\u00a0USA. Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed je p\u0159itom pom\u011br ztr\u00e1t k\u00a0mobilizovateln\u00fdm zdroj\u016fm, schopnost ztr\u00e1ty nahrazovat, kvalita v\u00fdcviku a\u00a0odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed politick\u00e9ho veden\u00ed. <\/p>\n

Koho vlastn\u011b v\u00e1lka v\u00a0Rusku a\u00a0na Ukrajin\u011b zasahuje nejv\u00edc? A\u00a0co to m\u016f\u017ee znamenat za deset nebo dvacet let?<\/p>\n

U Ruska je probl\u00e9m, \u017ee ztr\u00e1ty jsou podle \u0159ady relevantn\u00edch odhad\u016f mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b vysok\u00e9 a\u00a0dopadaj\u00ed dispropor\u010dn\u011b na regiony a\u00a0socioekonomicky slab\u00e9 vrstvy. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 to postupn\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed jak\u00fdsi dlouh\u00fd st\u00edn. Veter\u00e1ni s\u00a0traumaty, invalidita, demografick\u00e9 d\u00edry, tlak na zdravotnictv\u00ed a\u00a0pracovn\u00ed trh.<\/p>\n

U Ukrajiny je dopad je\u0161t\u011b existenci\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u00a0\u2013 jde o\u00a0budouc\u00ed demografii, n\u00e1vrat uprchl\u00edk\u016f, rekonstrukci a\u00a0nahrazen\u00ed \u201eztracen\u00e9 generace\u201c. <\/p>\n

Odhady se li\u0161\u00ed, ale trend opot\u0159eben\u00ed je u\u00a0obou stran hlubok\u00fd a\u00a0dlouhodob\u011b neudr\u017eiteln\u00fd. Bu\u010f se lidi povede maxim\u00e1ln\u011b ochr\u00e1nit a\u00a0ve v\u00e1lce postupn\u011b nahradit stroji, co\u017e ale hned tak nenastane, by\u0165 se o\u00a0to zejm\u00e9na Ukrajina sna\u017e\u00ed a\u00a0rozhodn\u011b nepl\u00fdtv\u00e1 nesmysln\u011b tolika \u017eivoty jako Rusko, nebo sledujeme de facto \u0159\u00edzenou sebevra\u017edu cel\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti. To je ale pochopiteln\u011b sv\u00e9ho druhu ka\u017ed\u00e1 v\u00e1lka. Ve 21.\u00a0stolet\u00ed to akor\u00e1t sledujeme intenzivn\u011b a\u00a0v p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m p\u0159enosu.<\/p>\n

Vid\u00edte v\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00edm Rusku paralely sp\u00ed\u0161e s\u00a0pozdn\u00edm Sov\u011btsk\u00fdm svazem (SSSR), nebo s\u00a0carsk\u00fdm imp\u00e9riem po Krymsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce?<\/p>\n

Vid\u00edm jakousi kombinaci oboj\u00edho. Po krymsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce (1853-1856) se uk\u00e1zala technologick\u00e1 a\u00a0institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed zaostalost carsk\u00e9ho imp\u00e9ria, kter\u00e1 nutila k\u00a0reform\u00e1m. Dne\u0161n\u00ed Rusko tak\u00e9 nar\u00e1\u017e\u00ed na limity modernizace, logistiky a\u00a0pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v\u00a0dlouh\u00e9 v\u00e1lce.<\/p>\n

Pozdn\u00ed SSSR zase p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 t\u00edm, \u017ee m\u00e1 sice r\u00e9toricky \u201evelmocensk\u00e9\u201c ambice, ale ekonomika je deformovan\u00e1 zbrojn\u00edmi v\u00fddaji a\u00a0robustnost\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho apar\u00e1tu. D\u00e1le roste z\u00e1vislost na v\u00fdvozu surovin a\u00a0re\u017eim se op\u00edr\u00e1 o\u00a0kontrolu informac\u00ed. Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed rozd\u00edl proti SSSR je, \u017ee dne\u0161n\u00ed re\u017eim je m\u00e9n\u011b ideologicky ukotven\u00fd a\u00a0spole\u010dnost je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce sev\u0159en\u00e1 strachem. <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Oproti situaci v\u00a0SSSR po Gorba\u010dovov\u00fdch reform\u00e1ch, kdy se mohlo i\u00a0otev\u0159en\u011b kritizovat a\u00a0rozhodn\u011b se p\u0159itom ned\u011blo tolik p\u00e1d\u016f z\u00a0okna, se jedn\u00e1 o\u00a0\u00fapln\u011b jinou situaci. <\/p>\n

Znovu je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 historick\u00e1 paralela pokulh\u00e1v\u00e1. N\u011bco sed\u00ed, n\u011bco v\u0161ak nikoliv a\u00a0dobov\u00e9 kulisy se prom\u011bnily. D\u00e1 se to i\u00a0nazvat tak, \u017ee d\u011bjiny se zcela neopakuj\u00ed, ale r\u00fdmuj\u00ed. Mnoho trend\u016f je podobn\u00fdch, ne v\u0161ak shodn\u00fdch – po\u0161etilost mocn\u00fdch je ale st\u00e1le stejn\u00e1.<\/p>\n

\u0158ekl byste, \u017ee je sou\u010dasn\u00fd rusk\u00fd re\u017eim stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e byl sov\u011btsk\u00fd syst\u00e9m v\u00a080.\u00a0letech?<\/p>\n

Kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b m\u016f\u017ee p\u016fsobit stabiln\u011bji, proto\u017ee je tvrd\u0161\u00ed a\u00a0bez vnitrostranick\u00fdch brzd, kter\u00e9 m\u011bl pozdn\u00ed Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz. Zjednodu\u0161en\u011b sta\u010d\u00ed jeden rozkaz novodob\u00e9ho cara, nemus\u00ed ani zasedat politbyro. Dlouhodob\u011b je ale k\u0159eh\u010d\u00ed v\u00a0tom, \u017ee stoj\u00ed na u\u017e\u0161\u00ed koalici loajality, na osob\u011b l\u00eddra a\u00a0na toku pen\u011bz do bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho apar\u00e1tu.<\/p>\n

S jak\u00fdm konfliktem 19.\u00a0nebo 20.\u00a0stolet\u00ed je dne\u0161n\u00ed v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b nejv\u00edc srovnateln\u00e1, a\u00a0v \u010dem naopak \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 historick\u00e1 paralela nefunguje?<\/p>\n

Historicky se to m\u016f\u017ee podobat kombinaci prvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, tam lze porovn\u00e1vat opot\u0159eben\u00ed pr\u016fmyslu a\u00a0lid\u00ed, a\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e1 byla dlouh\u00e1, krvav\u00e1, s\u00a0omezen\u00fdmi pr\u016flomy a\u00a0obrovsk\u00fdmi ztr\u00e1tami. <\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc funguje prvek ze studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v\u00a0tom, \u017ee v\u00fdsledek spoluur\u010duje podpora spojenc\u016f. U\u00a0Ruska mo\u017en\u00e1 do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry hraje roli i\u00a0kalkul ze strany Severn\u00ed Koreje, \u00cdr\u00e1nu, \u010c\u00edny – tyto zem\u011b to rozhodn\u011b ned\u011blaj\u00ed z\u00a0n\u011bjak\u00fdch sympati\u00ed. Plat\u00ed klasick\u00e9 \u201enep\u0159\u00edtel m\u00e9ho nep\u0159\u00edtele je m\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edtelem\u201c.<\/p>\n

Zm\u00ednil jste studenou v\u00e1lku. V\u00a0\u010dem se od n\u00ed dne\u0161n\u00ed situace li\u0161\u00ed? Je v\u00a0n\u011b\u010dem i\u00a0nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed?<\/p>\n

Studen\u00e1 v\u00e1lka m\u011bla tvrd\u00e9, ale relativn\u011b \u010diteln\u00e9 \u201ekoleje\u201c\u00a0\u2013 jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sf\u00e9ry vlivu, stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odstra\u0161en\u00ed, v\u00edce kontroln\u00edch mechanism\u016f. Dne\u0161ek je nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee je fragmentovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a\u00a0m\u00e9n\u011b predikovateln\u00fd. Tedy kombinace faktor\u016f jako hybridn\u00ed operace, kyber\u00fatoky, sabot\u00e1\u017en\u00ed aktivity, z\u00e1m\u011brn\u00e1 pr\u00e1ce s\u00a0migrac\u00ed (nap\u0159. p\u0159i hranic\u00edch Polska s\u00a0B\u011bloruskem) a\u00a0z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b \u0161\u00ed\u0159enou l\u017e\u00ed – dezinformacemi.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc funguje jak\u00fdsi pocit, \u017ee v\u00e1lka v\u00a0Evrop\u011b je vlastn\u011b \u201enorm\u00e1ln\u00ed\u201c, p\u0159esto\u017ee tu a\u017e na\u00a0v\u00fdjimky, jako rozpad Jugosl\u00e1vie, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 80\u00a0let nebyla. A\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u011b je tu riziko, \u017ee dlouh\u00e1 v\u00e1lka bude Moskvu motivovat k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edm form\u00e1m n\u00e1tlaku, aby kompenzovala omezen\u00e9 zisky na boji\u0161ti. Co\u017e se m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159el\u00e9vat i\u00a0do vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, jak vid\u00edme na aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00edch bez pr\u016flomu.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Existuje historick\u00fd konflikt, ve kter\u00e9m obr\u00e1nce vydr\u017eel tak dlouho proti po\u010detn\u011b siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu agresorovi a\u00a0nakonec usp\u011bl?<\/p>\n

Ano, typicky tam, kde obr\u00e1nce z\u00edskal \u010das, prostor a\u00a0podporu zven\u010d\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad Brit\u00e1nie v\u00a0letech 1940\u201341, kdy vydr\u017eela do momentu, kdy se z\u00a0konfliktu stal \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed koali\u010dn\u00ed boj. D\u00e1le t\u0159eba \u010c\u00edna proti Japonsku v\u00a0letech 1937\u201345, Severn\u00ed Vietnam proti USA, kde hr\u00e1la roli kombinace vytrvalosti, politick\u00e9 strategie a\u00a0extern\u00ed podpory, nebo Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n proti SSSR. Spole\u010dn\u00fd jmenovatel je pak to, \u017ee obr\u00e1nce nep\u0159etla\u010dil agresora jen \u201ehrdinstv\u00edm\u201c, ale t\u00edm, \u017ee agresorovi zvedal cenu – n\u00e1klady za jeho agresi a\u00a0donutil ho zm\u011bnit priority.<\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017ee v\u00e1lka paradoxn\u011b re\u017eim stabilizovat, tedy vytvo\u0159it spole\u010dnost, kter\u00e1 je chud\u0161\u00ed, ale politicky loaj\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed?<\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017ee a\u00a0historie to zn\u00e1. V\u00e1lka um\u00ed vytvo\u0159it \u201eobl\u00e9hanou pevnost\u201c, ve kter\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1st spole\u010dnosti p\u0159ijme omezen\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bnou za pocit bezpe\u010d\u00ed a\u00a0srozumiteln\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh. Funguje to ale jen za ur\u010dit\u00fdch podm\u00ednek – re\u017eim mus\u00ed udr\u017eet z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00ed standard, kontrolu informac\u00ed a\u00a0p\u0159erozd\u011blit v\u00fdhody loaj\u00e1ln\u00edm skupin\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 je to stabilita vykoupen\u00e1 budoucnost\u00ed. \u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le konflikt trv\u00e1, t\u00edm v\u00edce roste riziko, \u017ee se loajalita zm\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0apatii, cynismus a\u00a0nakonec v\u00a0tich\u00fd odpor. Zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 kdy\u017e se kumuluj\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty a\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady. <\/p>\n

Tomu se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed jist\u00fd skanzen jm\u00e9nem Severn\u00ed Korea, i\u00a0kdy\u017e a\u017e do v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b se p\u0159\u00edmo do v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch operac\u00ed n\u011bkolik dek\u00e1d nepou\u0161t\u011bla. <\/p>\n

Tom\u00e1\u0161 \u0158epaFoto: Tom\u00e1\u0161 \u0158epa<\/p>\n

Z archivu Tom\u00e1\u0161e \u0158epy.<\/p>\n

Mgr. Bc. Tom\u00e1\u0161 \u0158epa, Ph.D. je absolventem Filozofick\u00e9 a Pr\u00e1vnick\u00e9 fakulty Masarykovy univerzity.Od roku 2014\u00a0licen\u010dn\u011b spolupracoval s\u00a0\u00dastavem pro studium totalitn\u00edch re\u017eim\u016f, od roku 2018\u00a0s\u00a0organizac\u00ed Post Bellum\u00a0\u2013 Pam\u011b\u0165 n\u00e1roda jako ambasador projektu P\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy na\u0161ich soused\u016f pro oblast Brna a\u00a0okol\u00ed.Od z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2018\u00a0je zam\u011bstnancem Katedry teorie vojenstv\u00ed na Univerzit\u011b obrany. V\u011bnuje se p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm soudob\u00fdm d\u011bjin\u00e1m, problematice st\u0159et\u016f banderovc\u016f (UPA) s\u00a0\u010deskoslovensk\u00fdmi bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmi jednotkami a\u00a0arm\u00e1dou, zneu\u017eit\u00ed tohoto t\u00e9matu komunistickou propagandou ve vztahu k\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9mu d\u011bn\u00ed i\u00a0hybridn\u00edm konflikt\u016fm\u00a0\u2013 Ukrajina. Od roku 2025 p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed na CEVRO Univerzit\u011b v Praze.D\u00e1le se zam\u011b\u0159uje na star\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 d\u011bjiny, zejm\u00e9na napoleonsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, a\u00a0v sou\u010dasnosti se tak\u00e9 v\u011bnuje zm\u011bn\u00e1m v\u00a0\u010deskoslovensk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 spr\u00e1v\u011b ve 20.\u00a0stolet\u00ed.Je nadporu\u010d\u00edkem aktivn\u00ed z\u00e1lohy Arm\u00e1dy \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky.<\/p>\n

Na za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky se hodn\u011b mluvilo o \u201emor\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159evaze\u201c Ukrajiny. Lze i\u00a0dnes tvrdit, \u017ee je st\u00e1le strategickou v\u00fdhodou?<\/p>\n

Ano, ale rozhodn\u011b nen\u00ed samospasiteln\u00e1. Mor\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159evaha je strategickou v\u00fdhodou hlavn\u011b v\u00a0tom, \u017ee pom\u00e1h\u00e1 udr\u017eet vnit\u0159n\u00ed soudr\u017enost, legitimitu ob\u011bt\u00ed a\u00a0podporu spojenc\u016f. V\u00a0dlouh\u00e9 v\u00e1lce ale mor\u00e1lka pot\u0159ebuje oporu i\u00a0v kapacit\u011b: munici, v\u00fdcviku, rotac\u00edch, protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obran\u011b, ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00fddr\u017ei. Mor\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159evaha tedy z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 \u201emultiplik\u00e1torem\u201c, kter\u00fd zvy\u0161uje efekt zdroj\u016f, ale nedok\u00e1\u017ee je nahradit. <\/p>\n

Ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci p\u0159itom v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee kdy\u017e p\u0159estanou bojovat, v\u00e1lka se k\u00a0jejich domov\u016fm p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edc. I\u00a0proto jsou schopni leckdy bez vyst\u0159\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed zvl\u00e1dat neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b dlouhou dobu str\u00e1venou na linii dotyku. I\u00a0to v\u0161ak postupn\u011b m\u011bn\u00ed technologick\u00e1 revoluce, nyn\u00ed vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00e1 nap\u0159. drony, do budoucna zase mnoha dal\u0161\u00edmi vymo\u017eenostmi.<\/p>\n

Co je z\u00a0historick\u00e9ho hlediska pro obr\u00e1nce nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed – vojensk\u00e9 vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed, nebo psychologick\u00e1 \u00fanava spole\u010dnosti?<\/p>\n

Jsou prov\u00e1zan\u00e9. Vojensk\u00e9 vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed je viditeln\u00e9 ve ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch a\u00a0munici. Psychologick\u00e1 \u00fanava je zr\u00e1dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ij\u00edt d\u0159\u00edv ne\u017e vojensk\u00fd kolaps a\u00a0projev\u00ed se poklesem discipl\u00edny, polarizac\u00ed, \u00fat\u011bkem a\u00a0tlakem na \u201ejak\u00fdkoli m\u00edr\u201c.<\/p>\n

Historicky plat\u00ed, \u017ee kdy\u017e se obr\u00e1nci rozpadne soudr\u017enost, ztr\u00e1c\u00ed schopnost mobilizovat zdroje i\u00a0v situaci, kdy by je\u0161t\u011b vojensky mohl dr\u017eet. <\/p>\n

\u00danava z\u00a0v\u00e1lky roste i\u00a0v \u010desk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti. Je to historicky b\u011b\u017en\u00fd jev u\u00a0zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 samy nev\u00e1l\u010d\u00ed?<\/p>\n

Ano, po \u00favodn\u00ed vln\u011b z\u00e1jmu \u010di solidarity p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed vyst\u0159\u00edzliv\u011bn\u00ed. U \u201enez\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fdch\u201c spole\u010dnost\u00ed se \u010dasem typicky prosad\u00ed pocit, \u017ee konflikt je vzd\u00e1len\u00fd, slo\u017eit\u00fd a\u00a0nekone\u010dn\u00fd a\u00a0\u017ee dom\u00e1c\u00ed probl\u00e9my jsou nal\u00e9hav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Historicky to vid\u00edme u\u00a0dlouh\u00fdch konflikt\u016f, kter\u00e9 se vle\u010dou roky. I\u00a0kdy\u017e se jich \u010d\u00e1st ve\u0159ejnosti \u00fa\u010dastnila jen politicky, p\u0159es rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed volen\u00fdch z\u00e1stupc\u016f, nebo ekonomicky.<\/p>\n

\u00danava je p\u0159irozen\u00e1, ale probl\u00e9m nast\u00e1v\u00e1, kdy\u017e se prom\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0iluzi, \u017ee \u201ekdy\u017e se p\u0159estaneme d\u00edvat, p\u0159estane to existovat\u201c. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee i\u00a0v ohlasech na tento rozhovor se do\u010dteme, \u017ee u\u017e s\u00a0t\u00edm t\u00e9matem nem\u00e1me otravovat. Jako kdyby p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fdch d\u011bj\u016f, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed nav\u00edc potenci\u00e1l d\u00e1l eskalovat, mohlo p\u0159in\u00e9st stabilitu a\u00a0bezpe\u010d\u00ed. <\/p>\n

Mimochodem, obranyschopnost m\u00e1 v\u00a0t\u00e9to souvislosti jedine\u010dnou vlastnost. M\u016f\u017eete se m\u00edt jakkoliv dob\u0159e materi\u00e1ln\u011b a\u00a0\u0159\u00edkat si, \u017ee v\u00e1m nic nehroz\u00ed a\u00a0v\u00e1s se to net\u00fdk\u00e1, ale pokud ji zanedb\u00e1te, m\u00e1te jistotu, \u017ee k\u00a0v\u00e1m pot\u00ed\u017ee, hrozby a\u00a0v\u00fdzvy stejn\u011b doraz\u00ed. Proto ignorance nen\u00ed v\u00a0tomto sm\u011bru dobrou volbou.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Dostaly se podle v\u00e1s evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b do stavu, kdy je na zbrojen\u00ed u\u017e te\u010f pozd\u011b?<\/p>\n

Zbrojen\u00ed, a\u0165 se to n\u011bkomu l\u00edb\u00ed, \u010di nikoliv, je z\u00e1rove\u0148 sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed. Asi je t\u0159eba st\u00e1le dokola opakovat historicky ov\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 \u201echce\u0161-li m\u00edr, p\u0159ipravuj se na v\u00e1lku\u201c. Na zbrojen\u00ed tedy rozhodn\u011b pozd\u011b nen\u00ed. Evropa je v\u00a0situaci, kdy doh\u00e1n\u00ed zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed a\u00a0nar\u00e1\u017e\u00ed na limity – pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 kapacity, z\u00e1soby, person\u00e1l, politick\u00e9 cykly.<\/p>\n

Jak dlouho obvykle trv\u00e1, ne\u017e si spole\u010dnost p\u0159ipust\u00ed, \u017ee n\u011bjak\u00e1 v\u00e1lka nen\u00ed epizodou, ale novou geopolitickou realitou?<\/p>\n

Historicky trv\u00e1 p\u0159epnut\u00ed spole\u010dnosti a\u00a0st\u00e1tu z\u00a0m\u00edrov\u00e9 rutiny na v\u00e1\u017en\u011b vn\u00edmanou a\u00a0akcentovanou bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed realitu \u010dasto roky: po f\u00e1zi pop\u0159en\u00ed se p\u0159ech\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0d\u00edl\u010d\u00edm opat\u0159en\u00edm a\u00a0a\u017e pozd\u011bji k\u00a0syst\u00e9mov\u00fdm zm\u011bn\u00e1m v\u00a0rozpo\u010dtu, v\u00fdrob\u011b nebo v\u00fdcviku. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 je konzistence a\u00a0dlouhodob\u00e1 schopnost vyr\u00e1b\u011bt a\u00a0udr\u017eovat, ne jednor\u00e1zov\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e to \u0159eknu zjednodu\u0161en\u011b – zaslou\u017e\u00ed si p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt ta spole\u010dnost, kter\u00e1 pochop\u00ed, \u017ee m\u00e1 smysl se semknout na obhajob\u011b sv\u00e9ho hodnotov\u00e9ho ukotven\u00ed a\u00a0pr\u00e1va na svobodn\u00e9 sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed, a\u00a0bude ochotna taky pro to n\u011bco ud\u011blat. Ta, kter\u00e1 rezignuje, zanikne. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"V\u00e1lky se obvykle hodnot\u00ed podle map a\u00a0\u010d\u00edsel – kdo obsadil jak\u00fd kus zem\u011b, kam se posunula fronta, kdo…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24336,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[441,11511,1819,61,2213,5192,54,110,56,53,52],"class_list":{"0":"post-24335","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-historie","9":"tag-obeti-valky","10":"tag-rozhovory","11":"tag-rusko","12":"tag-sovetsky-svaz","13":"tag-studena-valka","14":"tag-svet","15":"tag-ukrajina","16":"tag-valka-rusko-ukrajina","17":"tag-world","18":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116228704411909691","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24335"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24335\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24336"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}