{"id":24987,"date":"2026-03-15T11:46:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-15T11:46:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/24987\/"},"modified":"2026-03-15T11:46:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-15T11:46:08","slug":"komentar-dolar-ceka-postupne-oslabovani-pociti-dedolarizaci-i-vnitrni-dluh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/24987\/","title":{"rendered":"Koment\u00e1\u0159: Dolar \u010dek\u00e1 postupn\u00e9 oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed. Poc\u00edt\u00ed dedolarizaci i\u00a0vnit\u0159n\u00ed dluh"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ot\u00e1zka, zda je americk\u00fd dolar \u201ep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 siln\u00fd\u201c, respektive \u201enadhodnocen\u00fd\u201c, se vrac\u00ed do centra makroekonomick\u00fdch debat, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0prost\u0159ed\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed nejistoty a\u00a0rozd\u00edln\u011b nastaven\u00fdch m\u011bnov\u00fdch politik. Jak\u00fd je tedy st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fd v\u00fdhled, tedy horizont dvou a\u017e p\u011bti let?<\/p>\n

Pro seri\u00f3zn\u00ed posouzen\u00ed se p\u0159itom ekonomov\u00e9 obvykle ned\u00edvaj\u00ed na jeden nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd kurz typu EUR\/USD, ale na \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed ukazatel v\u00a0podob\u011b re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho efektivn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho kurzu v\u00e1\u017een\u00e9ho zahrani\u010dn\u00edm obchodem (trade weighted real effective exchange rate\u00a0\u2013 REER). Ten kombinuje kurz dolaru v\u016f\u010di ko\u0161i m\u011bn hlavn\u00edch obchodn\u00edch partner\u016f s\u00a0v\u00e1hami podle obchodn\u00edch tok\u016f a\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u011b jej upravuje o\u00a0rozd\u00edly v\u00a0m\u00ed\u0159e inflace, tedy o\u00a0relativn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj cen (tzv. infla\u010dn\u00ed diferenci\u00e1l).<\/p>\n

A pr\u00e1v\u011b \u201ere\u00e1ln\u00e1\u201c slo\u017eka je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1, nebo\u0165 i\u00a0p\u0159i stabiln\u00edm nomin\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u011bnov\u00e9m kurzu plat\u00ed, \u017ee vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed inflace oproti obchodn\u00edm partner\u016fm znamen\u00e1 re\u00e1ln\u00e9 zhodnocen\u00ed m\u011bny a\u00a0zhor\u0161en\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed cenov\u00e9 konkurenceschopnosti.<\/p>\n

Z pohledu dlouh\u00fdch \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 dolar v\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00e9m obchodn\u011b v\u00e1\u017een\u00e9m vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed st\u00e1le historicky siln\u00fd, by\u0165 u\u017e je n\u00ed\u017ee ne\u017e na ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m vrcholu na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2025, nap\u0159\u00edklad dle Fedem sledovan\u00e9ho Real Broad Dollar indexu. Podobn\u011b BIS real broad REER pro USA je st\u00e1le v\u00fdrazn\u011b nad \u201enorm\u00e1lem\u201c posledn\u00edch let. Jin\u00fdmi slovy plat\u00ed, \u017ee dolar sice od maxima z\u00a0p\u0159elomu let 2024\u00a0a\u00a02025\u00a0ji\u017e \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b korigoval, nicm\u00e9n\u011b v\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00e9m efektivn\u00edm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed st\u00e1le z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 velmi vysoko. <\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd fond v\u00a0nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1v\u011b o\u00a0USA (Article IV, \u00fanor 2026) shrnuje, \u017ee vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozice USA byla v\u00a0roce 2025 \u201em\u00edrn\u011b slab\u0161\u00ed\u201c ne\u017e odpov\u00edd\u00e1 st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fdm fundament\u016fm a\u00a0\u017e\u00e1douc\u00edm politik\u00e1m. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, tlak na re\u00e1ln\u00e9 oslaben\u00ed dolaru jako sou\u010d\u00e1st postupn\u00e9 vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed korekce z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 ve h\u0159e.<\/p>\n

St\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e1 rizika pro dolar nad\u00e1le souvisej\u00ed s\u00a0takzvan\u00fdm dvojit\u00fdm deficitem, tedy kombinac\u00ed vysok\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9ho deficitu a\u00a0deficitu b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu platebn\u00ed bilance. Podle Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho fondu feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd deficit klesl ve fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce 2025\u00a0ze 6,3\u00a0% HDP na 5,9\u00a0% HDP, av\u0161ak v\u00fdhledov\u011b m\u00e1 op\u011bt p\u0159ekra\u010dovat 6\u00a0% HDP a\u00a0dluhov\u00e1 kv\u00f3ta m\u00e1 d\u00e1l r\u016fst. Na vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed stran\u011b deficit b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu platebn\u00ed bilance ve t\u0159et\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2025\u00a0dos\u00e1hl 226\u00a0miliard dolar\u016f, co\u017e odpov\u00edd\u00e1 2,9\u00a0% HDP. <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Dvojit\u00fd deficit znamen\u00e1, \u017ee americk\u00e1 ekonomika je struktur\u00e1ln\u011b enormn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na ochot\u011b zbytku sv\u011bta financovat americkou spot\u0159ebu a\u00a0investice. P\u0159itom plat\u00ed, \u017ee pokud by se v\u00fdrazn\u011b zm\u011bnila glob\u00e1ln\u00ed investorsk\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka po americk\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch aktivech, nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159i poklesu \u00farokov\u00e9ho diferenci\u00e1lu \u010di p\u0159i r\u016fstu politick\u00e9 rizikov\u00e9 pr\u00e9mie, typickou \u201emakro\u201c cestou ekonomick\u00e9ho p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00ed by na z\u00e1klad\u011b zku\u0161enost\u00ed z\u00a0historie byl slab\u0161\u00ed dolar a\u00a0zlep\u0161en\u00ed obchodn\u00ed bilance zahrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu, resp. zlep\u0161en\u00ed bilance b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu platebn\u00ed bilance.<\/p>\n

S t\u00edm t\u011bsn\u011b souvis\u00ed i\u00a0z\u00e1porn\u00e1 \u010dist\u00e1 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed pozice (net international investment position\u00a0\u2013 NIIP). \u00da\u0159ad pro ekonomickou anal\u00fdzu USA uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee na konci t\u0159et\u00edho \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2025\u00a0\u010dinila \u010dist\u00e1 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed pozice USA -27,6\u00a0bilionu dolar\u016f, co\u017e je v\u00a0historick\u00e9m srovn\u00e1n\u00ed nejhor\u0161\u00ed hodnota. Na relativn\u00ed b\u00e1zi v\u00a0pom\u011bru k\u00a0nomin\u00e1ln\u00edmu HDP to implikuje americkou NIIP v\u00a0rekordn\u00edm z\u00e1poru na \u00farovni -89\u00a0%. <\/p>\n

Tato \u201e\u010dist\u011b dlu\u017enick\u00e1\u201c pozice sama o\u00a0sob\u011b neznamen\u00e1 bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed probl\u00e9m, nebo\u0165 USA maj\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b hlubok\u00e9 a\u00a0likvidn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy, nicm\u00e9n\u011b tak\u00e9 jednozna\u010dn\u011b bez nejmen\u0161\u00edch pochyb plat\u00ed, \u017ee takto z\u00e1porn\u00e1 NIIP na absolutn\u00ed i\u00a0relativn\u00ed b\u00e1zi v\u016f\u010di nomin\u00e1ln\u00edmu HDP v\u00fdrazn\u011b zvy\u0161uje citlivost dolaru na to, zda se zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investo\u0159i rozhodnou pokra\u010dovat v\u00a0akumulaci americk\u00fdch aktiv, nebo za\u010dnou postupn\u011b sv\u00e1 investi\u010dn\u00ed portfolia v\u00edce region\u00e1ln\u011b diverzifikovat.<\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnost\u00ed, kter\u00e1 do t\u00e9to \u00favahy zapad\u00e1, je tak\u00e9 postupuj\u00edc\u00ed dedolarizace. Zat\u00edm nejde o\u00a0dramatick\u00fd zlom, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e o\u00a0dlouhodob\u00fd trend, kdy centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky postupn\u011b v\u00edce diverzifikuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 devizov\u00e9 rezervy a\u00a0\u010d\u00e1st mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch obchodn\u00edch transakc\u00ed se realizuje i\u00a0v jin\u00fdch m\u011bn\u00e1ch ne\u017e v\u00a0dolaru.<\/p>\n

Tento posun je zat\u00edm sp\u00ed\u0161e pozvoln\u00fd a\u00a0s\u00e1m o\u00a0sob\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nepovede k\u00a0prudk\u00e9mu oslaben\u00ed dolaru. V\u00a0kombinaci s\u00a0dvojit\u00fdm deficitem Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a\u00a0rostouc\u00edm zahrani\u010dn\u00edm zadlu\u017een\u00edm v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee postupn\u011b sni\u017eovat z\u00e1jem zahrani\u010dn\u00edch investor\u016f o\u00a0americk\u00e1 aktiva. Tento efekt by se mohl zes\u00edlit zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by se zhor\u0161ila relativn\u00ed v\u00fdnosnost americk\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch aktiv nebo by vzrostla politick\u00e1 rizika ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech.<\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, st\u00e1le v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm t\u00e9matem jsou politick\u00e1 a\u00a0institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed rizika, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm ve vztahu k\u00a0nez\u00e1vislosti Fedu. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd fond ve sv\u00e9 \u00fanorov\u00e9 misi v\u00fdslovn\u011b zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost Fedu je \u201evysoce hodnotn\u00e9 aktivum\u201c, kter\u00e9 je t\u0159eba chr\u00e1nit, v\u010detn\u011b zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed nez\u00e1vislosti m\u011bnov\u011b-politick\u00fdch rozhodnut\u00ed. Pro kurz dolaru tedy plat\u00ed jednoduch\u00e1 logika. <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Pokud by investo\u0159i, respektive finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy za\u010dali vn\u00edmat vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed riziko politick\u00e9ho tlaku na americkou m\u011bnovou politiku, po\u017eadovan\u00e1 rizikov\u00e1 pr\u00e9mie na americk\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch aktivech by m\u011bla silnou tendenci r\u016fst, resp. jejich tr\u017en\u00ed ceny klesat, co\u017e by mohlo st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u011b p\u016fsobit proti dolaru, a\u00a0to zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kde u\u017e je dolar podle REER metrik historicky v\u00fdrazn\u011b nadhodnocen\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Celkov\u00fd obr\u00e1zek je tedy vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00fd, ale pom\u011brn\u011b konzistentn\u00ed. Americk\u00fd dolar je v\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00e9m efektivn\u00edm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed st\u00e1le sp\u00ed\u0161e nadhodnocen\u00fd, stejn\u011b jako podle posledn\u00edho komplexn\u00edho multilater\u00e1ln\u00edho odhadu Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho fondu, p\u0159esto\u017ee oproti vrcholu z\u00a0p\u0159elomu let 2024\u00a0a\u00a02025\u00a0u\u017e \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b korigoval. Sou\u010dasn\u011b se kumuluj\u00ed st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9 faktory, kter\u00e9 sp\u00ed\u0161e podporuj\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 pozvoln\u00e9 re\u00e1ln\u00e9 korekce. Pat\u0159\u00ed mezi n\u011b p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm dvojit\u00fd deficit (vl\u00e1dn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu a\u00a0b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu platebn\u00ed bilance), rekordn\u011b z\u00e1porn\u00e1 NIIP na absolutn\u00ed b\u00e1zi i\u00a0relativn\u00ed b\u00e1zi v\u016f\u010di nomin\u00e1ln\u00edmu HDP, postupn\u00e1 dedolarizace a\u00a0r\u016fst politick\u00e9, resp. institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed rizikov\u00e9 pr\u00e9mie na americk\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch aktivech, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0podob\u011b americk\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f. To samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nutn\u011b neimplikuje dal\u0161\u00ed line\u00e1rn\u00ed, resp. pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed americk\u00e9 m\u011bny. <\/p>\n

Dolar samoz\u0159ejm\u011b m\u016f\u017ee v\u00a0kr\u00e1tk\u00e9m horizontu znovu posilovat, a\u00a0to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm p\u0159i glob\u00e1ln\u00edch \u0161oc\u00edch a\u00a0n\u00e1r\u016fstu averze k\u00a0riziku. Ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m a\u017e dlouhodob\u00e9m \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu nicm\u00e9n\u011b podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru plat\u00ed, \u017ee kombinace vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed nerovnov\u00e1hy a\u00a0\u201edrah\u00e9ho\u201c REER bude v\u00a0m\u00e9m z\u00e1kladn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho budouc\u00edho v\u00fdvoje vytv\u00e1\u0159et siln\u00fd tlak na postupn\u00e9 p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00ed, a\u00a0tedy sp\u00ed\u0161e na slab\u0161\u00ed dolar v\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00e9m vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed ne\u017e na dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed posilov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ot\u00e1zka, zda je americk\u00fd dolar \u201ep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 siln\u00fd\u201c, respektive \u201enadhodnocen\u00fd\u201c, se vrac\u00ed do centra makroekonomick\u00fdch debat, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0prost\u0159ed\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":14217,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[10634,67,68,688,686,3803,3737],"class_list":{"0":"post-24987","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-americky-dolar","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-byznys","11":"tag-hruby-domaci-produkt-hdp","12":"tag-inflace","13":"tag-mena","14":"tag-statni-dluh"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116233029816137296","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24987","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24987"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24987\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14217"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24987"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24987"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24987"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}