{"id":257830,"date":"2026-10-25T10:21:16","date_gmt":"2026-10-25T10:21:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/257830\/"},"modified":"2026-10-25T10:21:16","modified_gmt":"2026-10-25T10:21:16","slug":"praska-bublina-umele-inteligence-z-technologickych-fondu-mizi-miliardy-dolaru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/257830\/","title":{"rendered":"Prask\u00e1 bublina um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence? Z technologick\u00fdch fond\u016f miz\u00ed miliardy dolar\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"

Akcie<\/a> spole\u010dnost\u00ed spojen\u00fdch s um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed \u010del\u00ed rostouc\u00edmu tlaku a investo\u0159i za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed p\u0159ehodnocovat sv\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Americk\u00fd polovodi\u010dov\u00fd index SOX zaznamenal nejdel\u0161\u00ed s\u00e9rii pokles\u016f od finan\u010dn\u00ed krize v roce 2008. <\/p>\n

Z glob\u00e1ln\u00edch technologick\u00fdch akciov\u00fdch fond\u016f nav\u00edc b\u011bhem jedin\u00e9ho t\u00fddne odtekly miliardy dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je, \u017ee \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed akciov\u00fd trh ve stejn\u00e9 dob\u011b d\u00e1l p\u0159itahoval nov\u00fd kapit\u00e1l. Trh tak mo\u017en\u00e1 neopou\u0161t\u00ed akcie jako celek, ale p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm technologick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti s vysok\u00fdmi o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edmi. P\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj prasknut\u00ed internetov\u00e9 bubliny z roku 2000, nebo jde jen o b\u011b\u017enou korekci po prudk\u00e9m r\u016fstu?<\/p>\n

Prozkoumejte defenzivn\u00ed ETF na platform\u011b XTB<\/p>\n

Vyu\u017eijte \u010dasov\u00e9ho testu ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch.<\/p>\n

\u010cipov\u00e9 akcie padaj\u00ed nejd\u00e9le od finan\u010dn\u00ed krize<\/p>\n

Akcie polovodi\u010dov\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed vys\u00edlaj\u00ed varovn\u00fd sign\u00e1l, kter\u00fd investo\u0159i nemohou snadno p\u0159ehl\u00e9dnout. Index SOX klesal osm obchodn\u00edch seanc\u00ed v \u0159ad\u011b, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e tak dlouhou s\u00e9rii ztr\u00e1t naposledy zaznamenal b\u011bhem finan\u010dn\u00ed krize<\/a> v roce 2008.<\/p>\n

Jen 16. \u0159\u00edjna index odepsal 3,83 %. Od r\u016fstov\u00e9ho maxima ze 6. \u0159\u00edjna se jeho ztr\u00e1ta roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na 16 %. V\u00fdprodej p\u0159itom zas\u00e1hl cel\u00fd sektor, nikoli pouze n\u011bkolik jednotliv\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pod tlakem se ocitly p\u0159edn\u00ed technologick\u00e9 firmy, mezi nimi Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron Technology a Intel. Jejich akcie v posledn\u00edch letech t\u011b\u017eily z o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee rozvoj um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vku po v\u00fdkonn\u00fdch \u010dipech a datov\u00fdch centrech.<\/p>\n

Investo\u0159i v\u0161ak nyn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161\u00ed, zda o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy skute\u010dn\u011b ospravedln\u00ed vysok\u00e9 valuace t\u011bchto spole\u010dnost\u00ed. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, trh chce v\u011bd\u011bt, jestli firmy dok\u00e1\u017eou prom\u011bnit obrovsk\u00e9 investice do AI v odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed zisky.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

\t\tThe Kobeissi Letter upozor\u0148uje na v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy americk\u00fdch akci\u00ed v\u00fdrobc\u016f polovodi\u010d\u016f. Pom\u011br indexu SOX v\u016f\u010di S&P 500 klesl na 1,45 bodu, tedy nejn\u00ed\u017ee od dubna 2026. Od \u010dervnov\u00e9ho maxima se propadl o 24 %, zat\u00edmco \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed index S&P 500 ve stejn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed p\u0159idal 2 %. SOX nav\u00edc zaznamenal osm ztr\u00e1tov\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch seanc\u00ed v \u0159ad\u011b, nejdel\u0161\u00ed takovou s\u00e9rii od finan\u010dn\u00ed krize v roce 2008. Zdroj: The Kobeissi Letter\/X.com<\/p>\n

Polovodi\u010dov\u00fd sektor zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 za \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm trhem<\/p>\n

Rozd\u00edl mezi v\u00fdvojem \u010dipov\u00fdch akci\u00ed a cel\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho trhu ukazuje tak\u00e9 pom\u011br indexu SOX k indexu S&P 500. Ten podle dat sd\u00edlen\u00fdch analytickou spole\u010dnost\u00ed The Kobeissi Letter klesl na 1,45 bodu, tedy nejn\u00ed\u017ee od dubna 2026.<\/p>\n

Od poloviny \u010dervna se tento pom\u011br sn\u00ed\u017eil o 0,46 bodu, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje pokles o 24 %. Samotn\u00fd polovodi\u010dov\u00fd index za stejn\u00e9 obdob\u00ed ztratil p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 24 %, zat\u00edmco S&P 500 naopak pos\u00edlil o 2 %.<\/p>\n

Tento rozd\u00edl nazna\u010duje, \u017ee investo\u0159i za\u010dali up\u0159ednost\u0148ovat jin\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti trhu p\u0159ed spole\u010dnostmi, jejich\u017e ocen\u011bn\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b z\u00e1vis\u00ed na pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm rozmachu um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence. Nejde tedy nutn\u011b o plo\u0161n\u00fd \u00fat\u011bk z akci\u00ed, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e o p\u0159esun kapit\u00e1lu mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi sektory.<\/p>\n

Pom\u011br SOX\/S&P 500 z\u00e1rove\u0148 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 142 % nad minimem z roku 2022, kdy dosahoval hodnoty 0,60. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd propad proto zat\u00edm neznamen\u00e1 n\u00e1vrat na \u00farovn\u011b, kter\u00e9 trh za\u017eil b\u011bhem p\u0159edchoz\u00edho v\u00fdrazn\u00e9ho oslaben\u00ed technologick\u00fdch akci\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\"Graf<\/p>\n

\t\tGraf ukazuje pom\u011br v\u00fdkonnosti polovodi\u010dov\u00e9ho indexu SOX v\u016f\u010di indexu S&P 500 od roku 1995. Pom\u011br na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2026 vystoupal a\u017e k hodnot\u011b 1,91, n\u00e1sledn\u011b v\u0161ak prudce klesl na 1,45, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od dubna 2026. V\u00fdvoj nazna\u010duje, \u017ee akcie v\u00fdrobc\u016f \u010dip\u016f za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed za \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm americk\u00fdm akciov\u00fdm trhem v\u00fdrazn\u011b zaost\u00e1vat. Podobn\u00fd obrat p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 obdob\u00ed po splasknut\u00ed internetov\u00e9 bubliny v roce 2000, sou\u010dasn\u00fd pom\u011br v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fdrazn\u011b nad minimem z roku 2022. Pokles proto upozor\u0148uje na ochlazen\u00ed z\u00e1jmu o polovodi\u010dov\u00fd sektor, s\u00e1m o sob\u011b ale je\u0161t\u011b nepotvrzuje splasknut\u00ed bubliny kolem um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence. Zdroj: Bloomberg<\/p>\n

Z technologick\u00fdch fond\u016f odtekly miliardy dolar\u016f<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed zn\u00e1mkou zm\u011bny n\u00e1lady jsou pohyby kapit\u00e1lu v investi\u010dn\u00edch fondech. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed fondy zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na technologick\u00e9 akcie zaznamenaly v t\u00fddnu kon\u010d\u00edc\u00edm 14. \u0159\u00edjna odliv 4,8 miliardy dolar\u016f, co\u017e p\u0159edstavovalo nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed t\u00fddenn\u00ed v\u00fdb\u011br za nejm\u00e9n\u011b p\u011bt t\u00fddn\u016f.<\/p>\n

Americk\u00e9 technologick\u00e9 fondy p\u0159i\u0161ly podle uveden\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f dokonce o 5,2 miliardy dolar\u016f. Jen o t\u00fdden d\u0159\u00edve p\u0159itom do technologick\u00fdch fond\u016f p\u0159iteklo 5,4 miliardy dolar\u016f. Obrat tak p\u0159i\u0161el pom\u011brn\u011b rychle.<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00fd je ale v\u00fdvoj na \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm trhu. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed akciov\u00e9 fondy ve stejn\u00e9m t\u00fddnu p\u0159il\u00e1kaly p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 20 miliard dolar\u016f, z toho 13 miliard zam\u00ed\u0159ilo do americk\u00fdch akci\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Tato \u010d\u00edsla podporuj\u00ed n\u00e1zor, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1st investor\u016f pouze m\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00e9 portfolio. Zat\u00edmco technologick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti opou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed, z\u00e1jem o dal\u0161\u00ed akciov\u00e9 tituly z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pom\u011brn\u011b siln\u00fd.<\/p>\n

\"Graf<\/p>\n

\t\tGraf zn\u00e1zor\u0148uje v\u00fdvoj kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch tok\u016f do glob\u00e1ln\u00edch technologick\u00fdch akciov\u00fdch fond\u016f b\u011bhem p\u011bti t\u00fddn\u016f. V t\u00fddnu kon\u010d\u00edc\u00edm 14. \u0159\u00edjna 2026 investo\u0159i vybrali z t\u011bchto fond\u016f 4,8 miliardy dolar\u016f, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje v\u00fdrazn\u00fd obrat oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu t\u00fddnu, kdy do nich naopak vlo\u017eili 5,4 miliardy dolar\u016f. Prudk\u00fd odliv nazna\u010duje, \u017ee investo\u0159i p\u0159ehodnocuj\u00ed sv\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed od technologick\u00e9ho sektoru, zejm\u00e9na v souvislosti s vysok\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady na rozvoj um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence a nejistou n\u00e1vratnost\u00ed t\u011bchto investic. Nejde v\u0161ak nutn\u011b o odchod z akciov\u00e9ho trhu jako celku, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e o p\u0159esun kapit\u00e1lu do jin\u00fdch sektor\u016f. Zdroj: The Kobeissi Letter\/X.com<\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj p\u0159irozen\u011b p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 internetovou bublinu z p\u0159elomu tis\u00edcilet\u00ed. Tehdy investo\u0159i ve velk\u00e9m nakupovali akcie internetov\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed a jejich ceny \u010dasto v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159edb\u00edhaly skute\u010dn\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky. Kdy\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed narazila na realitu, n\u00e1sledoval hlubok\u00fd a dlouhotrvaj\u00edc\u00ed propad.<\/p>\n

Dne\u0161n\u00ed situace m\u00e1 ale tak\u00e9 d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 rozd\u00edly. Podle \u00fanorov\u00e9ho hodnocen\u00ed Fidelity z roku 2026 z\u016fst\u00e1valy technologick\u00e9 valuace pod extr\u00e9mn\u00edmi \u00farovn\u011bmi z obdob\u00ed dot-com bubliny. Firmy nav\u00edc financovaly velkou \u010d\u00e1st investic do um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence z vlastn\u00edch zisk\u016f, nikoli pouze prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm dluhu.<\/p>\n

To v\u0161ak neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00fd boom nem\u016f\u017ee narazit na probl\u00e9m. Portfolio mana\u017eer AllianceBernstein James Russo o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee r\u016fst kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f na AI v letech 2027 a 2028 zpomal\u00ed kv\u016fli vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm na financov\u00e1n\u00ed. Ekonom Dario Perkins ze spole\u010dnosti TS Lombard zase upozor\u0148uje na rostouc\u00ed zadlu\u017een\u00ed, p\u0159ebyte\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1soby \u010dip\u016f a riziko, \u017ee firmy n\u011bkter\u00e9 pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 projekty zru\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Velc\u00ed provozovatel\u00e9 cloudov\u00e9 infrastruktury by podle uveden\u00fdch odhad\u016f mohli do AI investovat a\u017e 1,2 bilionu dolar\u016f. Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou ale z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, jak\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy tyto v\u00fddaje p\u0159inesou a jak rychle se investice vr\u00e1t\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

\t\tThe Kobeissi Letter upozor\u0148uje na v\u00fdrazn\u00fd odliv kapit\u00e1lu z technologick\u00fdch fond\u016f. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed akciov\u00e9 fondy zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na technologie zaznamenaly v t\u00fddnu do 14. \u0159\u00edjna odliv 4,8 miliardy dolar\u016f, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed za nejm\u00e9n\u011b p\u011bt t\u00fddn\u016f. Americk\u00e9 technologick\u00e9 fondy ztratily dokonce 5,2 miliardy dolar\u016f. Celkov\u00fd akciov\u00fd trh v\u0161ak z\u016fstal v plusu, proto\u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed akciov\u00e9 fondy p\u0159il\u00e1kaly 20 miliard dolar\u016f nov\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu, z toho 13 miliard zam\u00ed\u0159ilo do americk\u00fdch akci\u00ed. Zdroj: The Kobeissi Letter\/X.com<\/p>\n

Co rozhodne o dal\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdvoji AI akci\u00ed?<\/p>\n

Samotn\u00fd pokles cen je\u0161t\u011b nedokazuje, \u017ee technologick\u00e1 bublina prask\u00e1. \u010c\u00e1st spole\u010dnost\u00ed d\u00e1l vykazuje silnou popt\u00e1vku a rostouc\u00ed zisky. Pokud se jim poda\u0159\u00ed tato \u010d\u00edsla udr\u017eet a prom\u011bnit vysok\u00e9 v\u00fddaje z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016f v dlouhodob\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy, m\u016f\u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdprodej p\u0159edstavovat pouze v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed korekci.<\/p>\n

Riziko spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee investo\u0159i u\u017e do cen akci\u00ed zapo\u010d\u00edtali velmi optimistick\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. Pokud se r\u016fst tr\u017eeb zpomal\u00ed, n\u00e1klady na financov\u00e1n\u00ed porostou nebo z\u00e1kazn\u00edci omez\u00ed investice do datov\u00fdch center, mohou valuace rychle klesnout. Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed proto nebude jen dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj popt\u00e1vky po AI, ale tak\u00e9 skute\u010dn\u00e1 schopnost technologick\u00fdch firem vytv\u00e1\u0159et odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed toky.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011brem: AI boom pod tlakem<\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj podle m\u011b ukazuje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na to, \u017ee investo\u0159i za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed b\u00fdt n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence m\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit cel\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed, ale samotn\u00fd potenci\u00e1l nov\u00e9 technologie nezaru\u010duje, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 firma spojen\u00e1 s jej\u00edm rozvojem nab\u00eddne odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos. Prudk\u00fd r\u016fst o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pro akcie stejn\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd jako zhor\u0161en\u00ed samotn\u00e9ho podnik\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Za d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd pova\u017euji tak\u00e9 fakt, \u017ee pen\u00edze z akciov\u00e9ho trhu jako celku nemiz\u00ed stejn\u00fdm tempem jako z technologick\u00fdch fond\u016f. To zat\u00edm podporuje sp\u00ed\u0161e sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 rotace kapit\u00e1lu ne\u017e jednozna\u010dn\u00e9ho kolapsu cel\u00e9ho trhu<\/a>. Pokud ale firmy za\u010dnou omezovat investice do AI a jejich v\u00fdsledky nenapln\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, sou\u010dasn\u00fd pokles m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159er\u016fst v mnohem v\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m.<\/p>\n

Mysl\u00edte si, \u017ee akcie spojen\u00e9 s um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed \u010dek\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed hlubok\u00fd propad podobn\u00fd dot-com bublin\u011b, nebo jde pouze o zdravou korekci po n\u011bkolika letech r\u016fstu? Napi\u0161te n\u00e1m sv\u016fj n\u00e1zor do koment\u00e1\u0159\u016f.\ud83d\udc47<\/p>\n

Prozkoumejte defenzivn\u00ed akcie na platform\u011b XTB<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Akcie spole\u010dnost\u00ed spojen\u00fdch s um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed \u010del\u00ed rostouc\u00edmu tlaku a investo\u0159i za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed p\u0159ehodnocovat sv\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Americk\u00fd polovodi\u010dov\u00fd index…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":257831,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[10],"tags":[842,412,183,31521,17,21,16,52867,52868,18,19,62,22,20],"class_list":["post-257830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-zpravy","tag-ai","tag-akcie","tag-aktuality","tag-bublina","tag-headlines","tag-hlavni-udalosti","tag-news","tag-sox","tag-sp500","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-trh","tag-udalosti-dne","tag-zpravy"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117501053256787962","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=257830"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257830\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/257831"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=257830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=257830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=257830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}