{"id":280042,"date":"2026-11-15T07:49:12","date_gmt":"2026-11-15T07:49:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/280042\/"},"modified":"2026-11-15T07:49:12","modified_gmt":"2026-11-15T07:49:12","slug":"vsichni-akteri-vedi-ceho-by-chteli-na-ukrajine-do","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/280042\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u0161ichni akt\u00e9\u0159i v\u011bd\u00ed, \u010deho by cht\u011bli na Ukrajin\u011b do&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Politick\u00fd filosof Vlad Vexler <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=720a7lhmfQM\" target=\"_blank\">ve sv\u00e9m koment\u00e1\u0159i<\/a> k posledn\u00edmu v\u00fdvoji kolem jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o Ukrajin\u011b upozor\u0148uje na n\u011bkolik strategick\u00fdch paradox\u016f, ve kter\u00fdch se ocitly v\u0161echny strany konfliktu. Evropa nedok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159im\u011bt <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forum24.cz\/temata\/vladimir-putin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Vladimira Putina<\/a>, aby ustoupil od sv\u00fdch maximalistick\u00fdch po\u017eadavk\u016f, ale nem\u016f\u017ee si z\u00e1rove\u0148 dovolit je p\u0159ijmout. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forum24.cz\/temata\/ruska-federace-rusko\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Rusko<\/a> \u010dek\u00e1 probl\u00e9m, proto\u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fadery budou postupn\u011b naru\u0161ovat dosavadn\u00ed fungov\u00e1n\u00ed Putinova re\u017eimu. A Ukrajina mus\u00ed balancovat mezi t\u00edm, co m\u016f\u017ee \u0159\u00edkat ve\u0159ejn\u011b o sv\u00fdch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch c\u00edlech, a t\u00edm, co si uv\u011bdomuje v soukrom\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Vexler sv\u016fj rozbor uv\u00e1d\u00ed n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvou americk\u00fdch vyjednava\u010d\u016f Steva Witkoffa a Jareda Kushnera v Kremlu. Putin jim podle n\u011bj dal najevo, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9 jednotky na Ukrajin\u011b by Rusko pova\u017eovalo za legitimn\u00ed c\u00edle \u00fatoku. Sou\u010dasn\u011b po\u017eadoval, aby Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 p\u0159im\u011bli Evropany se rozhodnout, jestli cht\u011bj\u00ed v\u00e1lku, nebo m\u00edr. Vexler tato jedn\u00e1n\u00ed ozna\u010duje za z\u010d\u00e1sti p\u0159edst\u00edran\u00e1 a z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti za bezv\u00fdsledn\u00e1. V\u0161echny strany konfliktu jsou toti\u017e uv\u011bzn\u011bny v situac\u00edch, ze kter\u00fdch nedok\u00e1\u017eou naj\u00edt cestu ven.<\/p>\n<p>Nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je podle n\u011bj paradox na rusk\u00e9 stran\u011b. Ukrajina postupn\u011b rozv\u00edj\u00ed schopnosti zasahovat st\u00e1le v\u00edce c\u00edl\u016f na rusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed. Takov\u00e9 \u00fatoky budou podle Vexlera nevyhnuteln\u011b pokra\u010dovat a v jejich d\u016fsledku \u010dasem nebude mo\u017en\u00e9 udr\u017eovat dosavadn\u00ed stav, na kter\u00e9m Putin\u016fv re\u017eim stoj\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>\u201ePutin bude muset zm\u011bnit bu\u010f svou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku, nebo povahu sv\u00e9ho re\u017eimu, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b oboj\u00ed. Bude muset eskalovat v zahrani\u010d\u00ed a\/nebo eskalovat doma, co\u017e jeho re\u017eim je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce destabilizuje, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 to bude nezbytn\u00e9 k tomu, aby ho stabilizoval,\u201c popisuje paradox Vexler. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tento paradox pova\u017euje za z\u00e1sadn\u00ed. Rusk\u00fd v\u016fdce bude muset vlastn\u00ed syst\u00e9m vystavit dal\u0161\u00ed destabilizaci, aby zabr\u00e1nil jeho destabilizaci jin\u00e9ho druhu. Ob\u011btuje ur\u010dit\u00e9 formy stability v\u00fdm\u011bnou za jin\u00e9 a p\u0159ijme nov\u00e9 zdroje nestability, aby p\u0159ekonal ty dosavadn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eNem\u016f\u017ee dop\u0159edu p\u0159edv\u00eddat, jak to dopadne, ale bude muset p\u0159ekro\u010dit dosavadn\u00ed status quo. M\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b trochu \u010dasu, ale nakonec za\u010dne destabilizovat s\u00e1m sebe, aby se stabilizoval,\u201c konstatuje Vexler.<\/p>\n<p>Evropsk\u00e1 pozice je podle n\u011bj tak\u00e9 zablokovan\u00e1. Putinovy po\u017eadavky, formulovan\u00e9 u\u017e v ultim\u00e1tu z roku 2021, z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed maximalistick\u00e9. Rusko tehdy po\u017eadovalo z\u00e1sadn\u00ed omezen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnosti NATO ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b. Evropa nem\u016f\u017ee na takov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky p\u0159istoupit, z\u00e1rove\u0148 ale nem\u00e1 dostate\u010dnou s\u00edlu ani spole\u010dnou strategii, aby Rusko p\u0159im\u011bla od nich ustoupit.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eNem\u00e1me ani s\u00edlu, ani spole\u010dn\u00fd c\u00edl, abychom Rusy p\u0159im\u011bli opustit jejich maximalistick\u00e9 po\u017eadavky, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 nem\u00e1me prostor, abychom jim vyhov\u011bli. Jsme v patov\u00e9 situaci,\u201c shrnuje Vexler.<\/p>\n<p>Dal\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m vid\u00ed v rozd\u00edln\u00e9m vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 hrozby uvnit\u0159 Evropy. \u010c\u00edm bl\u00ed\u017ee je n\u011bkter\u00e1 zem\u011b Rusku, t\u00edm m\u00e9n\u011b je ochotn\u00e1 d\u011blat \u00fastupky. St\u00e1ty z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropy jsou naopak k \u00fastupk\u016fm vst\u0159\u00edcn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee Rusko nepova\u017euj\u00ed pro sebe za existen\u010dn\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed, \u017ee ohro\u017euje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm Pobalt\u00ed, Ukrajinu, Moldavsko a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b \u010d\u00e1st Polska.<\/p>\n<p>Pr\u00e1v\u011b tato rozd\u00edln\u00e1 geografick\u00e1 perspektiva podle Vexlera opakovan\u011b rozb\u00edj\u00ed snahy o spole\u010dn\u00fd evropsk\u00fd postoj. P\u0159irovn\u00e1v\u00e1 ji k stav\u011bn\u00ed hradu z p\u00edsku. Poka\u017ed\u00e9, kdy\u017e se evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b pokus\u00ed sestavit jednotnou pozici, jejich dohoda se rozpadne.<\/p>\n<p>Ukrajina se mezit\u00edm pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s jin\u00fdm druhem rozporu. Ve ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 komunikaci mus\u00ed jej\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 zd\u016fraz\u0148ovat obranu proti rusk\u00e9 agresi a tak\u00e9 n\u00e1vrat okupovan\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed. V soukrom\u00e9m uva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed ale podle Vexlera lid\u00e9 v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee Ukrajina nedok\u00e1\u017ee ztracen\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed z\u00edskat zp\u011bt, pokud se Rusko nezhrout\u00ed. K takov\u00e9mu zhroucen\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee Kyjev p\u0159isp\u011bt jen okrajov\u011b.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eVe\u0159ejn\u00e9 zd\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00ed obrany se nem\u016f\u017ee vzd\u00e1t my\u0161lenky na znovuz\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed. Soukrom\u00e9 ch\u00e1p\u00e1n\u00ed situace ale ukazuje, \u017ee Ukrajina nem\u016f\u017ee z\u00edskat zp\u011bt \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 ztratila, pokud nedojde k rusk\u00e9mu kolapsu,\u201c vysv\u011btluje Vexler.<\/p>\n<p>Vexler tak popisuje konflikt, v n\u011bm\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 ze stran nem\u00e1 jednoduchou cestu k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 nar\u00e1\u017e\u00ed na vlastn\u00ed omezen\u00ed a n\u011bkter\u00e9 kroky, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed p\u0159in\u00e9st stabilitu, mohou z\u00e1rove\u0148 vyvolat dal\u0161\u00ed nestabilitu. Zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Ruska m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt podle n\u011bj dosavadn\u00ed zp\u016fsob veden\u00ed v\u00e1lky postupn\u011b st\u00e1le obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed udr\u017eet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Politick\u00fd filosof Vlad Vexler ve sv\u00e9m koment\u00e1\u0159i k posledn\u00edmu v\u00fdvoji kolem jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o Ukrajin\u011b upozor\u0148uje na n\u011bkolik strategick\u00fdch&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":280043,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[11],"tags":[54,53,52],"class_list":["post-280042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-svet","tag-svet","tag-world","tag-world-news"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/117619364012729752","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280042","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=280042"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280042\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/280043"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=280042"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=280042"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=280042"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}