{"id":28022,"date":"2026-03-18T09:21:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T09:21:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/28022\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T09:21:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T09:21:13","slug":"dve-valky-o-iran-jednu-trump-vyhrava-druhou-zatim-rozhodne-ne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/28022\/","title":{"rendered":"Dv\u011b v\u00e1lky o\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1n. Jednu Trump vyhr\u00e1v\u00e1, druhou zat\u00edm rozhodn\u011b ne"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ve \u010dtvrtek 12.\u00a0b\u0159ezna zve\u0159ejnila \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 opozi\u010dn\u00ed m\u00e9dia z\u00e1b\u011bry<\/a>, na nich\u017e americk\u00fd letoun F\/A-18\u00a0Hornet \u00fato\u010d\u00ed palubn\u00edm kan\u00f3nem na c\u00edle u\u00a0p\u0159\u00edstavu \u010cabah\u00e1r na pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Om\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Let\u011bl p\u0159itom v\u00a0extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ce\u00a0\u2013 pouh\u00e9 des\u00edtky metr\u016f nad zem\u00ed. Je to typ \u00fatoku, kter\u00fd by pilot nep\u0159e\u017eil, kdyby pod n\u00edm fungovala by\u0165 jen jedin\u00e1 protiletadlov\u00e1 baterie, nebo se pobl\u00ed\u017e nach\u00e1zel voj\u00e1k s\u00a0p\u0159enosnou st\u0159elou na rameni.<\/p>\n

T\u00e9ho\u017e dne zaznamenaly n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed sledovac\u00ed syst\u00e9my, jak pr\u016flivem neru\u0161en\u011b proplul tanker nalo\u017een\u00fd \u00edr\u00e1nskou ropou sm\u011brem k\u00a0\u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstav\u016fm. \u00cdr\u00e1n v\u00a0tu chv\u00edli vyv\u00e1\u017eel<\/a> p\u0159es jeden a\u00a0p\u016fl milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b\u00a0\u2013 v\u00edc ne\u017e v\u00a0\u00fanoru, tedy p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Tyto dva obrazy zachycuj\u00ed podstatu toho, co se v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu t\u0159i t\u00fddny po zah\u00e1jen\u00ed americko-izraelsk\u00e9 operace \u201eEpick\u00fd hn\u011bv\u201c odehr\u00e1v\u00e1. Prob\u00edhaj\u00ed dv\u011b v\u00e1lky sou\u010dasn\u011b a\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e1 se \u0159\u00edd\u00ed jinou logikou. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a\u00a0Izrael vedou leteckou kampa\u0148, ve kter\u00e9 jednozna\u010dn\u011b v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n vede ekonomickou v\u00e1lku, ve kter\u00e9 zat\u00edm neprohr\u00e1v\u00e1. A\u00a0tyto dv\u011b v\u00e1lky spolu souvisej\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e by se zd\u00e1lo.<\/p>\n

V prvn\u00ed anal\u00fdze<\/a> na za\u010d\u00e1tku b\u0159ezna jsme rozeb\u00edrali zd\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00ed americk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku a\u00a0\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd lov na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 odpalovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. V\u00a0druh\u00e9<\/a> jsme popsali ekonomickou frontu a\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nskou strategii v\u00a0Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu. Dnes se d\u00edv\u00e1me na to, kam se situace za dal\u0161\u00ed t\u00fdden posunula\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0pro\u010d ani vojensk\u00e1 p\u0159evaha, ani ropovody, ani strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ropy nep\u0159inesly rozhodnut\u00ed.<\/p>\n

P\u0159evaha, kter\u00e1 nerozhoduje<\/p>\n

Vojensk\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla mluv\u00ed jasn\u011b. Za necel\u00e9 t\u0159i t\u00fddny americko-izraelsk\u00e1 koalice zas\u00e1hla p\u0159es sedm tis\u00edc c\u00edl\u016f<\/a>. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana je potla\u010dena natolik, \u017ee americk\u00e9 st\u00edha\u010dky operuj\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161k\u00e1ch, kde by je za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch okolnost\u00ed ohrozila i\u00a0palba z\u00a0p\u011bchotn\u00edch zbran\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Des\u00edtky podzemn\u00edch raketov\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen, kter\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1n budoval po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed jako p\u00e1te\u0159 sv\u00e9ho odstra\u0161en\u00ed, se prom\u011bnily z\u00a0p\u0159ednosti ve slabinu. Americk\u00e1 a\u00a0izraelsk\u00e1 letadla a\u00a0drony nad nimi krou\u017e\u00ed a\u00a0ni\u010d\u00ed odpalovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed ve chv\u00edli, kdy vyj\u00ed\u017ed\u011bj\u00ed z\u00a0tunel\u016f. Jak<\/a> to shrnul analytik Sam Lair z\u00a0Montereysk\u00e9ho centra pro ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed zbran\u00ed: \u201eCo bylo d\u0159\u00edve mobiln\u00ed a\u00a0t\u011b\u017eko dohledateln\u00e9, p\u0159estalo b\u00fdt mobiln\u00ed a\u00a0stalo se snadn\u00fdm ter\u010dem.\u201c<\/p>\n

Komer\u010dn\u00ed satelitn\u00ed sn\u00edmky zachycuj\u00ed n\u00e1sledky: u\u00a0\u0160\u00edr\u00e1zu zni\u010den\u00e1 odpalovac\u00ed rampa s\u00a0\u010derven\u00fdm oblakem unikaj\u00edc\u00ed kyseliny dusi\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00a0paliva zasa\u017een\u00e9 st\u0159ely, u\u00a0Esfah\u00e1nu zasypan\u00e9 vchody do tunel\u016f po z\u00e1saz\u00edch pr\u016fnikov\u00fdmi bombami, po\u0161kozen\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny u\u00a0Tabr\u00edzu, Kerm\u00e1n\u0161\u00e1hu a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch m\u011bst. Na n\u011bkter\u00fdch m\u00edstech bombard\u00e9ry vchody do podzem\u00ed zcela zavalily a\u00a0zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed st\u0159ely poh\u0159bily uvnit\u0159.<\/p>\n

Intenzita \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 palby oproti prvn\u00edmu dni klesla \u0159\u00e1dov\u011b<\/a>. Ale \u00fapln\u00e9 uml\u010den\u00ed se neda\u0159\u00ed\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0nejsp\u00ed\u0161 to ani nen\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd z\u00e1m\u011br. Teher\u00e1n si zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1soby st\u0159el a\u00a0dron\u016f patrn\u011b \u0161et\u0159\u00ed. P\u0159esn\u00fd rozsah zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edho arzen\u00e1lu p\u0159itom nezn\u00e1 s\u00a0jistotou nikdo.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Analytik Decker Eveleth z\u00a0washingtonsk\u00e9ho think-tanku CNA Corp. upozor\u0148uje<\/a>, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b tato nejistota \u00cdr\u00e1nu paradoxn\u011b pom\u00e1h\u00e1, proto\u017ee nut\u00ed protivn\u00edka po\u010d\u00edtat s\u00a0hor\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em. Re\u017eim beze zbran\u00ed by u\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9ho jednac\u00edho stolu nem\u011bl co nab\u00eddnout a\u00a0o co se op\u0159\u00edt. Na dobr\u00e9 vztahy se sousedy po \u00fatoc\u00edch na arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 je\u0161t\u011b ned\u00e1vno zachov\u00e1valy v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu neutralitu, nebo alespo\u0148 zdr\u017eenlivost, spol\u00e9hat rozhodn\u011b nem\u016f\u017ee<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed vytvo\u0159\u00ed podm\u00ednky pro lidov\u00e9 povst\u00e1n\u00ed, se zat\u00edm nenapl\u0148uje. Naopak\u00a0\u2013 v\u00e1lka patrn\u011b poslou\u017eila ke konsolidaci nov\u00e9ho re\u017eimu Mojtaby Chamene\u00edho. Protesty z\u00a0ledna 2026, nejz\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed za posledn\u00ed roky<\/a>, utichly. Vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fatok tradi\u010dn\u011b posiluje legitimitu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho establishmentu. P\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 re\u017eimu vyz\u00fdvaj\u00ed ob\u010dany, aby vy\u0161li do ulic v\u00a0okol\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch slo\u017eek; opozi\u010dn\u00ed pr\u00e1vn\u00edci to ozna\u010duj\u00ed<\/a> za vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed \u017eiv\u00fdch \u0161t\u00edt\u016f. \u0160\u00e9f parlamentu Ghalibaf napsal<\/a> na soci\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b: \u201eTento v\u00e1\u0161 nejmen\u0161\u00ed voj\u00e1k v\u00e1s pros\u00ed o\u00a0t\u0159i v\u011bci: ulice, ulice, ulice.\u201c V\u00e1lka, a\u0165 u\u017e dopadne jakkoli, re\u017eimu pom\u00e1h\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Selektivn\u00ed p\u0159i\u0161krcen\u00ed<\/p>\n

Obraz na mo\u0159i se za posledn\u00ed t\u00fdden podstatn\u011b zp\u0159esnil. Blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, o\u00a0kter\u00e9 jsme psali minule<\/a>, se uk\u00e1zala b\u00fdt selektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se na prvn\u00ed pohled zd\u00e1lo. Od 12.\u00a0b\u0159ezna \u00cdr\u00e1n v\u00a0pr\u016flivu na \u017e\u00e1dnou lo\u010f neza\u00fato\u010dil<\/a>. Tankery sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed do \u010c\u00edny, Indie a\u00a0P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu pr\u016flivem alespo\u0148 v\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech proplouvaj\u00ed<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Denn\u00ed export ropy z\u00a0cel\u00e9ho regionu p\u0159esto klesl<\/a> nejm\u00e9n\u011b o\u00a060\u00a0% a\u00a0britsk\u00e1 monitorovac\u00ed slu\u017eba UKMTO od za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky eviduje p\u0159es dvacet n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch incident\u016f v\u00a0oblasti pr\u016flivu a\u00a0Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Nap\u0159\u00edklad 16.\u00a0b\u0159ezna \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 s\u00edly zas\u00e1hly<\/a> tanker kotv\u00edc\u00ed v\u00a0Om\u00e1nsk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu\u00a0\u2013 prvn\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd \u00fatok v\u00fdchodn\u011b od pr\u016flivu za t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dva t\u00fddny. C\u00edl nebyl n\u00e1hodn\u00fd: \u0161lo o\u00a0kotvi\u0161t\u011b u\u00a0Fud\u017eajry, jedin\u00e9ho funk\u010dn\u00edho emir\u00e1tsk\u00e9ho exportn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edstavu mimo Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv.<\/p>\n

Foto: Ren\u00e9 Matou\u0161, Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv.<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco \u00cdr\u00e1n fakticky zastavil v\u011bt\u0161inu exportu sv\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch soused\u016f, jeho vlastn\u00ed ropa pluje d\u00e1l v\u00a0podstat\u011b bez p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed. Podle dat zpravodajsk\u00e9 firmy Kpler, kter\u00e9 cituje Iran International<\/a>, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd export dosahuje od za\u010d\u00e1tku b\u0159ezna v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru p\u0159es jeden a\u00a0p\u016fl milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Vykl\u00e1dky v\u00a0\u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstavech dokonce rostou. \u00cdr\u00e1n nav\u00edc poprv\u00e9 od \u0159\u00edjna 2024\u00a0vyexpedoval n\u00e1klad dvou milion\u016f barel\u016f z\u00a0termin\u00e1lu Jask\u00a0\u2013 sv\u00e9ho jedin\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstavu mimo pr\u016fliv. Teher\u00e1n de facto \u0161krt\u00ed ciz\u00ed export a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 chr\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed. Z\u00a0hlediska finan\u010dn\u00ed \u017eivotaschopnosti re\u017eimu uprost\u0159ed v\u00e1lky je to pozoruhodn\u00fd taktick\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch. Ale je v\u00a0tom v\u00edc ne\u017e taktika.<\/p>\n

Selektivn\u00edm pou\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm tanker\u016f do \u010c\u00edny a\u00a0Indie si \u00cdr\u00e1n sna\u017e\u00ed vybudovat alespo\u0148 n\u011bjakou m\u00edru \u201edobr\u00e9 v\u016fle\u201c\u00a0\u2013 zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 z\u00a0obchodu s\u00a0n\u00edm profituj\u00ed, budou m\u00e9n\u011b ochotn\u00e9 podpo\u0159it jeho izolaci. Blok\u00e1da tak nen\u00ed jen ekonomickou zbran\u00ed proti Washingtonu, ale i\u00a0n\u00e1strojem, j\u00edm\u017e se Teher\u00e1n pokou\u0161\u00ed \u0161t\u011bpit mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed koalici proti sob\u011b.<\/p>\n

K tomu se p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 n\u00e1vrh, kter\u00fd by je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed m\u011bs\u00edcem zn\u011bl jako okrajov\u00e1 spekulace. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd p\u0159edstavitel \u0159ekl CNN, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n zva\u017euje umo\u017enit omezen\u00fd pr\u016fjezd tanker\u016f pr\u016flivem\u00a0\u2013 ale jen za podm\u00ednky, \u017ee n\u00e1klad bude obchodov\u00e1n v\u00a0\u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch juanech. Pokud by se tato podm\u00ednka formalizovala<\/a>, \u0161lo by o\u00a0nejz\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzvu petrodolarov\u00e9mu syst\u00e9mu za celou jeho pades\u00e1tiletou existenci\u00a0\u2013 \u00fatok nikoli na americk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 aktiva, ale na finan\u010dn\u00ed architekturu, na kter\u00e9 stoj\u00ed americk\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed moc.<\/p>\n

K\u0159ehk\u00e9 obchvaty<\/p>\n

Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a\u00a0Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty mezit\u00edm p\u0159esm\u011brovaly \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9ho exportu p\u0159es ropovody, kter\u00e9 Hormuz obch\u00e1zej\u00ed. Denn\u00ed objem narostl z\u00a0obvykl\u00fdch t\u0159\u00ed a\u00a0p\u016fl milionu barel\u016f na zhruba \u0161est milion\u016f.<\/p>\n

Je to p\u016fsobiv\u00fd logistick\u00fd v\u00fdkon, ale pokr\u00fdv\u00e1 jen men\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00edch objem\u016f<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 podle Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 agentury v\u00fdpadek dosahuje osmi milion\u016f barel\u016f surov\u00e9 ropy a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch dvou milion\u016f kondenz\u00e1t\u016f denn\u011b. Strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1soby \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f IEA, z\u00a0nich\u017e se m\u00e1 uvolnit rekordn\u00edch 400\u00a0milion\u016f barel\u016f, kupuj\u00ed \u010das v\u00a0\u0159\u00e1du t\u00fddn\u016f, ne m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, a\u00a0nav\u00edc nesta\u010d\u00ed tempem\u00a0\u2013 ze z\u00e1sob se budou uvol\u0148ovat z\u0159ejm\u011b pomaleji, ne\u017e jak je mo\u017en\u00e9 obvykle ropu t\u011b\u017eit a\u00a0dopravovat k\u00a0z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016fm. Americk\u00fd ministr energetiky Wright i\u00a0proto p\u0159ipustil, \u017ee \u201eneexistuj\u00ed z\u00e1ruky<\/a>\u201c poklesu cen.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1hradn\u00ed trasy tak\u00e9 nejsou nezraniteln\u00e9. Krom\u011b zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho \u00fatoku u\u00a0Fud\u017eajry \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 s\u00edly za\u00fato\u010dily<\/a> tak\u00e9 na emir\u00e1tsk\u00fd ropovod, kter\u00fd Hormuz obch\u00e1z\u00ed. Sa\u00fadsk\u00fd ropovod East-West, hlavn\u00ed z\u00e1chrann\u00e1 trasa pro arabskou ropu, \u00fast\u00ed na Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i\u00a0\u2013 tedy v\u00a0oblasti, kde od roku 2024\u00a0jemen\u0161t\u00ed H\u00fatiov\u00e9 v\u00a0koordinaci s\u00a0Teher\u00e1nem ohro\u017euj\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravu.<\/p>\n

Foto: \u0160tefan Nov\u00e1k, Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

Alternativn\u00ed trasy, kudy p\u0159ev\u00e9zt ropu z\u00a0Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/p>\n

Analytici Lloyd’s List odhaduj\u00ed<\/a>, \u017ee i\u00a0s n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edmi konvoji se poda\u0159\u00ed obnovit nanejv\u00fd\u0161 asi 10\u00a0% ztracen\u00fdch objem\u016f. Odhad vych\u00e1z\u00ed ze zku\u0161enosti s\u00a0ochranou plavby v\u00a0B\u00e1b al-Mandabu. Hormuz je \u201est\u00edsn\u011bn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u201c, m\u011bl\u010d\u00ed a\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby min, dron\u016f a\u00a0protilodn\u00edch st\u0159el z\u0159ejm\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed byly ty h\u00fatijsk\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Reflexe t\u00e9to reality p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed i\u00a0z Evropy. N\u011bmeck\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Wadephul otev\u0159en\u011b \u0159ekl<\/a>, \u017ee evropsk\u00e1 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed operace Aspides, dosud zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 na Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e, \u201enen\u00ed efektivn\u00ed\u201c. Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed na Hormuz unijn\u00ed minist\u0159i zam\u00edtli<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jak upozor\u0148uje Jack Watling z\u00a0britsk\u00e9ho Kr\u00e1lovsk\u00e9ho institutu obrann\u00fdch studi\u00ed, probl\u00e9m nen\u00ed jen v\u00a0tom, zda lod\u011b dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed pr\u016flivem bezpe\u010dn\u011b proplout. Probl\u00e9m je v\u00a0tom, zda je n\u011bkdo pojist\u00ed<\/a> a\u00a0zda na n\u011b pos\u00e1dky nastoup\u00ed. Jedna skryt\u00e1 mina sta\u010d\u00ed k\u00a0tomu, aby byla vodn\u00ed cesta form\u00e1ln\u011b \u201enebezpe\u010dn\u00e1\u201c\u00a0\u2013 ale jej\u00ed vy\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed stoj\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce a\u00a0miliardy. Watling sou\u010dasn\u011b upozor\u0148uje na probl\u00e9m vytrvalosti: USA mohou konvoje kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b chr\u00e1nit, ale nemaj\u00ed kapacitu eskortovat stovky lod\u00ed denn\u011b po cel\u00e9 t\u00fddny.<\/p>\n

Technologie p\u0159itom pom\u00e1haj\u00ed ob\u011bma stran\u00e1m\u00a0\u2013 americk\u00e9 drony a\u00a0um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed sledovat \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 pozice v\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00e9m \u010dase, ale \u00cdr\u00e1n zase d\u00edky satelitn\u00ed komunikaci dok\u00e1\u017ee odpalovat n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed drony daleko od pr\u016flivu a\u00a0rusk\u00e1 technick\u00e1 pomoc zt\u011b\u017euje jejich elektronick\u00e9 ru\u0161en\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Americk\u00e1 frekvence let\u016f nad pr\u016flivem \u010dasem nevyhnuteln\u011b klesne a\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti k\u00a0\u00fatoku vzrostou. I\u00a0kdyby Washington vyhl\u00e1sil sv\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, Teher\u00e1n bude pr\u016fliv pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b blokovat je\u0161t\u011b dost dlouho na to, aby mohl \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee p\u0159estal z\u00a0vlastn\u00edho rozhodnut\u00ed. Dopad na sv\u011btov\u00fd trh s\u00a0energiemi bude m\u00edt dlouh\u00fd ocas.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Dilema bez dobr\u00e9ho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed<\/p>\n

Bylo by p\u0159itom p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 zjednodu\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed naz\u00fdvat situaci patem. \u00cdr\u00e1n z\u00a0konfliktu vych\u00e1z\u00ed objektivn\u011b slab\u0161\u00ed. Cel\u00e1 jeho s\u00ed\u0165 region\u00e1ln\u00edch spojenc\u016f\u00a0\u2013 od Hizball\u00e1hu p\u0159es Ham\u00e1s po \u0161\u00editsk\u00e9 milice v\u00a0Ir\u00e1ku\u00a0\u2013 je systematicky demontov\u00e1na od \u0159\u00edjna 2023.\u00a0Jadern\u00e1 infrastruktura byla zasa\u017eena podruh\u00e9 za necel\u00fd rok. Vztahy se sousedy poni\u010dil vlastn\u00edmi \u00fatoky.<\/p>\n

Analytik Raphael Cohen z\u00a0americk\u00e9 RAND Corporation soud\u00ed<\/a>, \u017ee i\u00a0p\u0159e\u017e\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n vyjde z\u00a0v\u00e1lky chud\u0161\u00ed, slab\u0161\u00ed a\u00a0izolovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdykoli od roku 1979.\u00a0Jen\u017ee v\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m v\u00fdhledu dr\u017e\u00ed Teher\u00e1n karty, kter\u00e9 bol\u00ed. A\u00a0USA s\u00a0Izraelem stoj\u00ed p\u0159ed volbou, v\u00a0n\u00ed\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00a0cest nevede ke skute\u010dn\u00e9mu v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jak upozor\u0148uje<\/a> australsk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd analytik Mick Ryan, Trumpova administrativa vstoupila do v\u00e1lky s\u00a0p\u016fsobivou teori\u00ed prost\u0159edk\u016f\u00a0\u2013 leteck\u00e1 s\u00edla, zpravodajsk\u00e1 p\u0159evaha, technologick\u00e1 vysp\u011blost\u00a0\u2013 ale bez jasn\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f. C\u00edle se m\u011bn\u00ed z\u00a0t\u00fddne na t\u00fdden: od zni\u010den\u00ed jadern\u00e9ho programu p\u0159es bezpodm\u00edne\u010dnou kapitulaci po v\u00fdzvy k\u00a0lidov\u00e9mu povst\u00e1n\u00ed. Kdy\u017e nev\u00edme, co je v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 ho dos\u00e1hnout.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohou zkusit otev\u0159\u00edt pr\u016fliv silou\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0vsadit na to, \u017ee pesimistick\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy o\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch min\u00e1ch, dronech a\u00a0protilodn\u00edch st\u0159el\u00e1ch se m\u00fdl\u00ed. Rizika jsou z\u0159ejm\u00e1: ekologick\u00e1 katastrofa, ztr\u00e1ty tanker\u016f i\u00a0vojensk\u00fdch lod\u00ed, politick\u00e1 cena doma.<\/p>\n

Koalice Tel Avivu a\u00a0Washingtonu m\u016f\u017ee tak\u00e9 prost\u011b zatnout zuby a\u00a0pokra\u010dovat v\u00a0tlaku a\u00a0doufat, \u017ee re\u017eim nevydr\u017e\u00ed, p\u0159esto\u017ee v\u00e1lka ho dosud sp\u00ed\u0161e konsoliduje. Mezit\u00edm ov\u0161em p\u0159etahuj\u00ed vlastn\u00ed zdroje: \u010dty\u0159icet procent<\/a> opera\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ipraven\u00fdch lod\u00ed americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva je na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, syst\u00e9my protiraketov\u00e9 obrany THAAD byly sta\u017eeny z\u00a0Korejsk\u00e9ho poloostrova, Japonsko \u010dek\u00e1 na zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky Tomahawk\u016f. \u010c\u00edna a\u00a0Rusko pozorn\u011b sleduj\u00ed, kolik americk\u00e9 pozornosti a\u00a0munice pohlcuje Z\u00e1livu\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed, co si mohou dovolit jinde.<\/p>\n

Intermezzo<\/p>\n

Netanjahu a\u00a0Trump se mohou pokusit (po dohod\u011b nebo samostatn\u011b) konflikt ukon\u010dit. Ale v\u00fdsledkem bude s\u00a0velkou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n, kter\u00fd p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 Sadd\u00e1m\u016fv Ir\u00e1k po v\u00e1lce v\u00a0Z\u00e1livu roku 1991: vojensky oslaben\u00fd, ekonomicky izolovan\u00fd, ale veden\u00fd re\u017eimem, kter\u00fd samotn\u00e9 p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed pova\u017euje za v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed a\u00a0bude je\u0161t\u011b tvrd\u011bji potla\u010dovat opozici.<\/p>\n

Analytici z\u00a0RAND<\/a> tuto paralelu pova\u017euj\u00ed za nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. Sadd\u00e1m po roce 1991\u00a0obch\u00e1zel inspektory, potla\u010doval \u0161\u00editsk\u00e9 povst\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch dvan\u00e1ct let vzdoroval mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmu tlaku\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0nakonec bylo zapot\u0159eb\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lky a\u00a0dvacetilet\u00e9 okupace, aby jeho re\u017eim padl. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd st\u00e1t je p\u0159itom institucion\u00e1ln\u011b siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a\u00a0spole\u010densky slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Sadd\u00e1m\u016fv Ir\u00e1k.<\/p>\n

A d\u00e1 se o\u010dek\u00e1vat je\u0161t\u011b jeden probl\u00e9m: motivace Teher\u00e1nu dokon\u010dit jadernou zbra\u0148 je po s\u00e9rii \u00fatok\u016f z\u00a0lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho a\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edho roku siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdykoli p\u0159edt\u00edm. Z\u00e1soby obohacen\u00e9ho uranu, kter\u00e9 z\u016fstaly po\u00a0n\u00e1letech v\u00a0roce 2025, pokud v\u00edme, ani te\u010f zni\u010deny nebyly. Re\u017eim, kter\u00fd p\u0159e\u017eije dv\u011b vlny bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed, t\u011b\u017eko m\u016f\u017ee nedoj\u00edt k\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee jedinou spolehlivou z\u00e1rukou proti t\u0159et\u00ed vln\u011b je atomov\u00e1 bomba.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Pchjongjang je toho dokladem\u00a0\u2013 jakmile st\u00e1t z\u00edsk\u00e1 jadernou zbra\u0148, pravidla hry se m\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u011b a\u00a0nevratn\u011b. Se Severn\u00ed Koreou si Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty vym\u011b\u0148uj\u00ed tweety, ne bomby a\u00a0st\u0159ely.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b to je budoucnost, ke kter\u00e9 se \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 p\u0159ibli\u017euje\u00a0\u2013 s\u00a0t\u00edm rozd\u00edlem, \u017ee p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011b budou spojenci v\u00a0regionu st\u00e1t p\u0159ed akutn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed verz\u00ed t\u00e9ho\u017e probl\u00e9mu. V\u00a0nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se dalo mluvit o\u00a0do\u010dasn\u00e9m v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 hrozbu odd\u00e1l\u00ed, ale nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump kdysi sl\u00edbil, \u017ee Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 budou z\u00a0neust\u00e1l\u00fdch v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed unaven\u00ed<\/a>. V\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu se tato v\u011bta, my\u0161len\u00e1 jako sebev\u011bdom\u00e1 nads\u00e1zka, m\u016f\u017ee naplnit doslovn\u011bji, ne\u017e si jej\u00ed autor p\u0159edstavoval.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ve \u010dtvrtek 12.\u00a0b\u0159ezna zve\u0159ejnila \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 opozi\u010dn\u00ed m\u00e9dia z\u00e1b\u011bry, na nich\u017e americk\u00fd letoun F\/A-18\u00a0Hornet \u00fato\u010d\u00ed palubn\u00edm kan\u00f3nem na c\u00edle…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28023,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[212,17,21,6387,3432,7825,16,6131,205,18,19,22,20],"class_list":{"0":"post-28022","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zpravy","8":"tag-donald-trump","9":"tag-headlines","10":"tag-hlavni-udalosti","11":"tag-hormuzsky-pruliv","12":"tag-iransky-jaderny-program","13":"tag-konflikt-usa-izrael-iran","14":"tag-news","15":"tag-persky-zaliv","16":"tag-ropa","17":"tag-top-news","18":"tag-top-stories","19":"tag-udalosti-dne","20":"tag-zpravy"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116249446480003023","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28022","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28022"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28022\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28023"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28022"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28022"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28022"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}