{"id":33904,"date":"2026-03-24T06:34:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T06:34:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/33904\/"},"modified":"2026-03-24T06:34:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T06:34:10","slug":"valka-na-blizkem-vychode-skokove-zdrazi-ceske-hypoteky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/33904\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00e1lka na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b skokov\u011b zdra\u017e\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9 hypot\u00e9ky"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trh s\u00a0hypot\u00e9kami se po skokov\u00e9m r\u016fstu sazeb v\u00a0roce 2022\u00a0v\u00a0lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce op\u011bt za\u010dal vracet ke stabiln\u00edmu r\u016fstu. Dom\u00e1cnosti p\u0159estaly vy\u010dk\u00e1vat na dal\u0161\u00ed pokles sazeb, sm\u00ed\u0159ily se s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee \u00fav\u011bry na bydlen\u00ed za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed \u201e\u010dty\u0159kou\u201c, a\u00a0banky za\u010daly znovu ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm objemu p\u016fj\u010dovat pen\u00edze na bydlen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Klid v\u00a0odv\u011btv\u00ed ale za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 komplikovat eskalace konfliktu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Ta se toti\u017e nep\u0159\u00edmo prom\u00edtla do ceny pen\u011bz na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch. Zat\u00edmco je\u0161t\u011b v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u00fanora se tr\u017en\u00ed sazby dr\u017eely relativn\u011b stabiln\u011b, konec m\u011bs\u00edce p\u0159inesl prudk\u00fd obrat.<\/p>\n

\u201e\u00danor se z\u00a0pohledu v\u00fdvoje tzv. \u00farokov\u00fdch swap\u016f je\u0161t\u011b nesl v\u00a0poklidn\u00e9m duchu. \u00darokov\u00e1 sazba u\u00a0t\u0159\u00edlet\u00fdch swap\u016f se spo\u0159\u00e1dan\u011b dr\u017eela v\u00a0p\u00e1smu od 3,4\u00a0% do 3,5\u00a0%. Pak ale p\u0159i\u0161el posledn\u00ed \u00fanorov\u00fd den a\u00a0za\u010d\u00e1tek americko-izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f na \u00cdr\u00e1n a\u00a0v\u0161e bylo jinak,\u201c popisuje hypote\u010dn\u00ed expert Broker Trust Libor Ostatek.<\/p>\n

\u201eOp\u011bt pozorujeme skokov\u00fd v\u00fdkyv \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb u\u00a0t\u0159\u00edlet\u00fdch swap\u016f, kter\u00e9 tentokr\u00e1t vyst\u0159elily a\u017e k\u00a04,3\u00a0%, co\u017e je v\u00a0tomto segmentu skute\u010dn\u011b skokov\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Ostatek.<\/p>\n

\u201eP\u011btilet\u00fd swap, kter\u00fd se \u010dasto pom\u011b\u0159uje s\u00a0hypot\u00e9kami, za posledn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc zdra\u017eil o\u00a0t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 80\u00a0bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f, desetilet\u00fd pak skoro o\u00a070,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 hlavn\u00ed ekonom Creditas Petr Dufek.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b \u00farokov\u00e9 swapy jsou pro hypot\u00e9ky kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9. Ur\u010duj\u00ed, za kolik si banky zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed pen\u00edze na del\u0161\u00ed obdob\u00ed.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Jakmile bank\u00e1m zdra\u017e\u00ed zdroje, nemaj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 prostor dr\u017eet sazby pro klienty. Reakce tak p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed relativn\u011b rychle. \u201eRostou sazby, v\u00a0Raiffeisenbank jsme tedy zdra\u017eili od pond\u011bl\u00ed 16.\u00a0b\u0159ezna o\u00a00,5\u00a0procentn\u00edho bodu,\u201c uvedla mluv\u010d\u00ed banky Tereza Kaiser\u0161otov\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed banky zat\u00edm sazby nezm\u011bnily, ale p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj je k\u00a0tomu m\u016f\u017ee dotla\u010dit. \u201eAktu\u00e1ln\u00ed situaci velmi pe\u010dliv\u011b monitorujeme, a\u00a0pokud nedojde v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b ceny \u00farokov\u00fdch swap\u016f k\u00a0v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b trendu, zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb u\u00a0hypote\u010dn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nevyhneme,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 mana\u017eer hypot\u00e9k Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky Ond\u0159ej \u0160uchman.<\/p>\n

Podobn\u011b mluv\u00ed i\u00a0mluv\u010d\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159itelny. \u201eS ohledem na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst ceny pen\u011bz na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch nen\u00ed vylou\u010den\u00e9, \u017ee budeme nuceni prom\u00edtnout rostouc\u00ed cenu pen\u011bz do cen hypot\u00e9k,\u201c uvedl mluv\u010d\u00ed banky Filip Hrub\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Zdra\u017een\u00ed je nevyhnuteln\u00e9<\/p>\n

Podle hypote\u010dn\u00edho experta je dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj pom\u011brn\u011b jasn\u00fd. \u201eZv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v\u00a0\u0159\u00e1du desetin procenta je nevyhnuteln\u00e9,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Libor Ostatek. \u201eK nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159istoup\u00ed postupn\u011b cel\u00fd bankovn\u00ed sektor,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Podobn\u011b situaci vid\u00ed tak\u00e9 m\u00edstop\u0159edseda p\u0159edstavenstva Gepard Finance David Eim. \u201eNyn\u00ed se domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee budeme sv\u011bdky zdra\u017een\u00ed hypot\u00e9k o\u00a00,5\u00a0procentn\u00edho bodu,\u201c uvedl.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj p\u0159itom nen\u00ed specifick\u00fd jen pro \u010cesko. Na zm\u011bnu podm\u00ednek na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch u\u017e za\u010daly reagovat i\u00a0banky v\u00a0zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad ve Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii zv\u00fd\u0161ila spole\u010dnost Nationwide sazby u\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch hypote\u010dn\u00edch produkt\u016f a\u017e o\u00a00,25\u00a0procentn\u00edho bodu a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed domy avizuj\u00ed r\u016fst a\u017e o\u00a00,5\u00a0bodu.<\/p>\n

Zm\u011bna p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed ve chv\u00edli, kdy je hypote\u010dn\u00ed trh velmi aktivn\u00ed. Banky dnes \u0159e\u0161\u00ed nejen nov\u00e9 \u00fav\u011bry, ale i\u00a0velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed hypot\u00e9k s\u00a0kon\u010d\u00edc\u00ed fixac\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u201eTuzemsk\u00e9 banky dnes poskytuj\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc hypot\u00e9ky za 35\u00a0miliard korun a\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b stejn\u00fd objem hypot\u00e9k s\u00a0kon\u010d\u00edc\u00ed fixac\u00ed je m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ece\u0148ov\u00e1n. To je v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech zcela bezprecedentn\u00ed situace,\u201c upozor\u0148uje Ostatek.<\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jak\u00e9koli zdra\u017een\u00ed se nepropisuje jen do nov\u00fdch \u00fav\u011br\u016f, ale i\u00a0do velk\u00e9ho objemu t\u011bch st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch. Dom\u00e1cnosti, kter\u00fdm kon\u010d\u00ed fixace, tak \u010del\u00ed nov\u00fdm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m ve chv\u00edli, kdy jsou sazby op\u011bt pod tlakem.<\/p>\n

\u201eAktu\u00e1ln\u00ed nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb nejv\u00edc poc\u00edt\u00ed klienti, kter\u00fdm kon\u010d\u00ed 5let\u00e1 fixace z\u00a0roku 2021, ti maj\u00ed sazbu kolem 2,3\u00a0%. T\u011bm m\u016f\u017ee spl\u00e1tka nar\u016fst v\u00a0\u0159\u00e1du tis\u00edc\u016f korun m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Lucie Dr\u00e1salov\u00e1, hypote\u010dn\u00ed analyti\u010dka spole\u010dnosti Sirius Finance.<\/p>\n

V praxi m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed spl\u00e1tka hypot\u00e9ky se splatnost\u00ed 30\u00a0let vzroste p\u0159i zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby o\u00a0ka\u017edou 0,1\u00a0procentn\u00edho bodu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o\u00a060\u00a0K\u010d na ka\u017ed\u00fd milion korun \u00fav\u011bru.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201eU hypot\u00e9ky ve v\u00fd\u0161i p\u011bti milion\u016f korun tak zdra\u017een\u00ed o\u00a0p\u016fl procentn\u00edho bodu znamen\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1500\u00a0korun m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b nav\u00edc, tedy asi 18\u00a0tis\u00edc korun ro\u010dn\u011b,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Libor Ostatek.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b letos m\u00e1 nav\u00edc p\u0159ij\u00edt kv\u016fli koronavirov\u00e9mu boomu zat\u00edm v\u016fbec nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vlna refixac\u00ed v\u016fbec. \u201eP\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok m\u016f\u017ee refinancovat hypot\u00e9ku a\u017e 140\u00a0tis\u00edc klient\u016f a\u00a0objem refinancovan\u00fdch hypot\u00e9k je odhadov\u00e1n na rekordn\u00edch 460\u00a0miliard korun,\u201c vy\u010d\u00edsluje Adam Ka\u0161ka, region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel FinGo.<\/p>\n

\u010cern\u00e1 labu\u0165, nebo jen kr\u00e1tk\u00fd v\u00fdkyv?<\/p>\n

Trh podobn\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy u\u017e ale zn\u00e1. V\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech reagoval na covid i\u00a0v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b. Ot\u00e1zkou je, jak dlouho se nejistota na trz\u00edch udr\u017e\u00ed tentokr\u00e1t. \u201eJe st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee p\u016fjde tak\u00e9 jen o\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd v\u00fdkyv, kter\u00fd trh z\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti absorbuje,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Libor Ostatek, hypote\u010dn\u00ed expert Broker Trust.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 ale p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed i\u00a0m\u00e9n\u011b optimistickou variantu. \u201eVyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 to nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 mrazen\u00ed, zda nad n\u00e1mi nekrou\u017e\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dern\u00e1 labu\u0165, kter\u00e1 sazby z\u00e1sadn\u011b ovlivn\u00ed.\u201c<\/p>\n

V\u00fdhled by\u0165 jen do konce leto\u0161n\u00edho roku tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejist\u00fd. \u201eV\u00fdvoj v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli nelze predikovat. \u017dijeme v\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b a\u00a0situace za hranicemi m\u00e1 dopad i\u00a0na na\u0161e finance. V\u00fdvoj m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt opravdu v\u0161elijak\u00fd, ale v\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee se budeme dr\u017eet v\u00a0mantinelech plus minus 0,5\u00a0procentn\u00edho bodu,\u201c potvrzuje Lucie Dr\u00e1salov\u00e1, hypote\u010dn\u00ed analyti\u010dka spole\u010dnosti Sirius Finance.<\/p>\n

Banky p\u0159itom budou opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed i\u00a0v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by se situace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b rychle uklidnila. \u201eMysl\u00edm, \u017ee v\u017edy trv\u00e1 d\u00e9le, ne\u017e se ceny op\u011bt sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, proti tomu, kdy\u017e se zvy\u0161uj\u00ed. Banky budou cht\u00edt m\u00edt jistotu, \u017ee se situace skute\u010dn\u011b stabilizovala a\u00a0m\u016f\u017ee trvat m\u011bs\u00edce, ne\u017e se toto skute\u010dn\u011b potvrd\u00ed,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 hypote\u010dn\u00ed expert Jakub Rotrekl.<\/p>\n

M\u00e9n\u011b z\u00e1jemc\u016f o\u00a0hypot\u00e9ku<\/p>\n

Vedle samotn\u00e9ho zdra\u017een\u00ed se nav\u00edc za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 r\u00fdsovat i\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed efekt, a\u00a0t\u00edm je ochlazen\u00ed popt\u00e1vky.<\/p>\n

Celkov\u011b banky a\u00a0stavebn\u00ed spo\u0159itelny v\u00a0\u00fanoru poskytly nov\u00e9 a\u00a0refinancovan\u00e9 hypot\u00e9ky v\u00a0objemu 40,5\u00a0miliardy korun, co\u017e je o\u00a014,5\u00a0procenta v\u00edce ne\u017e o\u00a0m\u011bs\u00edc d\u0159\u00edve. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku tak objem dos\u00e1hl 76\u00a0miliard korun, meziro\u010dn\u011b o\u00a058\u00a0procent v\u00edce.<\/p>\n

\u201eV b\u0159eznu o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00fd siln\u00fd trend bude pokra\u010dovat, nebo\u0165 se budou je\u0161t\u011b zpracov\u00e1vat \u017e\u00e1dosti podan\u00e9 v\u00a0\u00fanoru. Do dal\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f by se ale ji\u017e mohla negativn\u011b prom\u00edtnout aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed geopolitick\u00e1 situace,\u201c upozor\u0148uje Ond\u0159ej \u0160uchman, mana\u017eer hypot\u00e9k Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Trh s\u00a0hypot\u00e9kami se po skokov\u00e9m r\u016fstu sazeb v\u00a0roce 2022\u00a0v\u00a0lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce op\u011bt za\u010dal vracet ke stabiln\u00edmu r\u016fstu. Dom\u00e1cnosti p\u0159estaly…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":33905,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[4495,67,1311,68,4772,3165,1984,7825,565,13157],"class_list":["post-33904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-blizky-vychod","tag-business","tag-bydleni","tag-byznys","tag-ceny-nemovitosti","tag-dostupnost-bydleni","tag-hypoteky","tag-konflikt-usa-izrael-iran","tag-nemovitosti","tag-sazby"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116282764072915739","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33904","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33904"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33904\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33905"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33904"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33904"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33904"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}