{"id":35708,"date":"2026-03-25T21:49:11","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T21:49:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/35708\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T21:49:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T21:49:11","slug":"komentar-zvedat-sazby-centralni-bankeri-vahaji-zda-reagovat-na-krizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/35708\/","title":{"rendered":"Koment\u00e1\u0159: Zvedat sazby? Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i v\u00e1haj\u00ed, zda reagovat na krizi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Od vypuknut\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech, m\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm dvoulet\u00e9 break-even sazby, zv\u00fd\u0161ila o\u00a054\u00a0bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f – z\u00a02,82\u00a0% na 3,35\u00a0%. Tato sazba je \u00farove\u0148, p\u0159i kter\u00e9 se celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady rovnaj\u00ed celkov\u00fdm v\u00fdnos\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Tento posun je v\u00fdznamn\u00fd, proto\u017ee nazna\u010duje, \u017ee finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e po\u010d\u00edtat s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky mohou v\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch letech p\u0159etrv\u00e1vat d\u00e9le, ne\u017e se dosud p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dalo. V\u00a0takov\u00e9 situaci se centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky obecn\u011b, a\u00a0americk\u00fd Fed zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b, dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed do mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b slo\u017eit\u00e9 a\u00a0citliv\u00e9 pozice.<\/p>\n

Jejich \u00fakol je nyn\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u00fd, proto\u017ee budou muset nal\u00e9zt velmi jemnou rovnov\u00e1hu p\u0159i nastavov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b stoj\u00ed skute\u010dnost, \u017ee r\u016fst cen energi\u00ed p\u0159edstavuje typick\u00fd negativn\u00ed n\u00e1kladov\u00fd \u0161ok na nab\u00eddkov\u00e9 stran\u011b ekonomiky. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, nejde o\u00a0inflaci, kter\u00e1 by vznikala prim\u00e1rn\u011b v\u00a0d\u016fsledku p\u0159eh\u0159\u00e1t\u00e9 dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vky nebo p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 uvoln\u011bn\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch podm\u00ednek, ale o\u00a0zdra\u017een\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch vstup\u016f, je\u017e se postupn\u011b prom\u00edt\u00e1 do cen v\u00a0cel\u00e9 ekonomice. Takov\u00fd typ inflace je pro centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky problematick\u00fd, proto\u017ee jejich standardn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje, zejm\u00e9na z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, maj\u00ed na tento druh \u0161oku pouze omezen\u00fd vliv, minim\u00e1ln\u011b v\u00a0krat\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka toti\u017e nedok\u00e1\u017ee sn\u00ed\u017eit cenu ropy, plynu nebo elekt\u0159iny pouh\u00fdm zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00edm m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky.<\/p>\n

Z tohoto pohledu by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 argumentovat, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i by na podobn\u00fd \u0161ok nem\u011bli reagovat p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 agresivn\u011b. Pokud by toti\u017e p\u0159istoupili k\u00a0razantn\u00edmu zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, mohli by zbyte\u010dn\u011b oslabit ekonomickou aktivitu, utlumit investice, omezit spot\u0159ebu dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed a\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161it riziko recese, ani\u017e by t\u00edm odstranili skute\u010dn\u00fd zdroj infla\u010dn\u00edho tlaku. M\u011bnov\u00e1 politika je toti\u017e \u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed tam, kde inflace vznik\u00e1 na stran\u011b popt\u00e1vky, nikoli tam, kde je vyvol\u00e1na geopolitick\u00fdmi ud\u00e1lostmi a\u00a0poruchami v\u00a0dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch energi\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b v\u0161ak nelze p\u0159ehl\u00e9dnout ani druh\u00e9, nem\u00e9n\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 riziko. T\u00edm je mo\u017enost, \u017ee se kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e1 a\u00a0st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e1 infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed za\u010dnou \u201eodkotvovat\u201c, tedy \u017ee ekonomick\u00e9 subjekty p\u0159estanou v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka bude schopna inflaci v\u00a0dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b vr\u00e1tit zp\u011bt k\u00a0c\u00edli. Pokud by dom\u00e1cnosti, firmy i\u00a0finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy nabyly dojmu, \u017ee vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflace se st\u00e1v\u00e1 nov\u00fdm norm\u00e1lem, mohlo by to samo o\u00a0sob\u011b vyvolat dal\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed vlnu. Zam\u011bstnanci by po\u017eadovali vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed mzdy, firmy by preventivn\u011b zvy\u0161ovaly ceny a\u00a0investo\u0159i by do sv\u00fdch rozhodnut\u00ed zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1vali trvale vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflaci. Takov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj by byl pro centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd, proto\u017ee by se inflace postupn\u011b st\u00e1vala v\u00edce setrva\u010dnou a\u00a0obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bji potla\u010ditelnou.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto bude v\u00a0nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch t\u00fddnech a\u00a0m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm komunikace centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank. Osobn\u011b bych se v\u00a0t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u011bl k\u00a0velmi obez\u0159etn\u00e9mu, d\u016fsledn\u00e9mu a\u00a0bd\u011bl\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edstupu ve ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch vystoupen\u00edch i\u00a0v ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch m\u011bnov\u011b-politick\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch. <\/p>\n

Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i by m\u011bli jasn\u011b signalizovat, \u017ee situaci berou velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u011b, \u017ee pe\u010dliv\u011b sleduj\u00ed v\u00fdvoj infla\u010dn\u00edch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0\u017ee jsou p\u0159ipraveni jednat, pokud by se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee se infla\u010dn\u00ed proces za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 nebezpe\u010dn\u011b roz\u0161i\u0159ovat do \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed ekonomiky. Takov\u00e1 komunikace m\u016f\u017ee sehr\u00e1t stabiliza\u010dn\u00ed roli sama o\u00a0sob\u011b, proto\u017ee pom\u00e1h\u00e1 udr\u017eovat d\u016fv\u011bru trhu v\u00a0odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky plnit sv\u016fj mand\u00e1t cenov\u00e9 stability.<\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u011b bych v\u0161ak v\u00a0t\u00e9to chv\u00edli z\u0159ejm\u011b je\u0161t\u011b neobhajoval okam\u017eit\u00e9 a\u00a0jednozna\u010dn\u00e9 zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. P\u0159\u00edm\u00fd z\u00e1sah do sazeb by m\u011bl b\u00fdt a\u017e dal\u0161\u00edm krokem, pokud by se potvrdilo, \u017ee se vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny energi\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159el\u00e9vaj\u00ed do j\u00e1drov\u00e9 inflace, mzdov\u00e9 dynamiky a\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00edch infla\u010dn\u00edch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. V\u00a0t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi je proto podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru vhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zachovat strategickou trp\u011blivost, av\u0161ak nikoli pasivitu. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka by m\u011bla z\u016fstat maxim\u00e1ln\u011b ostra\u017eit\u00e1, r\u00e9toricky pevn\u00e1 a\u00a0analyticky p\u0159ipraven\u00e1, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 by nem\u011bla jednat ukvapen\u011b, dokud nebude z\u0159ejm\u00e9, zda se jedn\u00e1 o\u00a0do\u010dasn\u00fd extern\u00ed \u0161ok, nebo o\u00a0za\u010d\u00e1tek hlub\u0161\u00edho a\u00a0trvalej\u0161\u00edho infla\u010dn\u00edho probl\u00e9mu.<\/p>\n

Foto: Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

Graf infla\u010dn\u00edho o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0USA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Od vypuknut\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech, m\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm dvoulet\u00e9 break-even sazby, zv\u00fd\u0161ila…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":35709,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[10],"tags":[685,17,21,686,7825,16,13157,18,19,22,20],"class_list":["post-35708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-zpravy","tag-centralni-banka","tag-headlines","tag-hlavni-udalosti","tag-inflace","tag-konflikt-usa-izrael-iran","tag-news","tag-sazby","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-udalosti-dne","tag-zpravy"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116292023960046981","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35708"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35708\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35709"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}